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Home sales data misreported due to NAR problem


               
2011 Feb 23, 11:11am   1,656 views  2 comments

by inflection point   follow (0)  

Calculated Risk: Real House Prices fall to 2000 Levels, Update on NAR Overstating Sales.

The National Association of Realtors issues monthly estimates of the number of homes sold in the U.S. Due to a problem in their methodology, their estimates of home sales may have been 10% to 15% too high from about 2007 onwards.

This would mean that the real estate market is a bit worse than thought with the “months-of-supply” now being much longer than previously disclosed.

In non-inflation adjusted terms, home prices, on average, are now back to early 2003 levels. When adjusted for inflation, home prices have fallen to year 2000 levels (as I read the article). Estimates of further price declines range from 5% to 25% drops – but no one has done well at making predictions.

Hmmm Problem. What do you think?

#housing

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1   klarek   2011 Feb 23, 11:12am  

I think NAR needs to be burned to the ground.

2   terriDeaner   2011 Feb 23, 2:13pm  

CR has been on top of this story for a while. Zero hedge also had a piece about this a month or so ago (can't find the link, their search engine sucks).

Ultimately, I guess the question becomes... Is the damage done? One one hand, the cooked sales figures probably helped to bolster prices in some markets over the past few years. On the other, ACTUAL unaccounted for inventory could help push up supply in said markets. Only time will tell.

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