patrick.net

mell says

E-man says

A tennis friend of mine who bet the farm on TSLA when it was in its infancy. He accumulated over $500k worth of TSLA stocks in its 20's and made it big when TSLA popped. He was betting on it with conviction

That's great for him and in the end the net gain counts. However this was a very risky play as the majority of its move was just hype while fundamentals kept and keep deteriorating. It works for some companies, esp. in modern technology when coupled with politics and tax breaks and big institutional money supporting it and crushing the shorts. If/when one or more major investors start reducing or pulling out of their position, this will crash hard and leaving a lot of people holding the bag. Of course Musk could succeed with TSLA, but chances are slim at this point. However until major investors start bailing shorting this remains risky, too much fund money rammed into this.


The definition of success should be that this company is stable, profitable, and doesn't burn through cash left and right. At this stage of the game, most people would scream failure if this Stock dropped down to $20 while accomplishing that. The valuation is completely insane and it appears that the investors actually want to see an indication of the profitability turning around at some point. Right now, given their failure to deliver on their Model 3 promises, it looks like this company still has a lot to learn when it comes to production. As they burn through cash, they better learn real quick before the big boys blow them out of the water.

i see some bitcoin “believers” in here...time to go big?

DooDahMan says

Any of the prognosticators that commented on this thread have any regrets ?

I’ve made well over six figures on TSLA so no regrets from me. Still own 300 shares. Writing/Selling puts and covered calls on it regularly. It’s my bread and butter with high IV, which means high premiums on options.

New Tesla Gigafactory in Mexico may be for cheaper Model 2 production with US$10 billion investment

The initial US$1 billion Tesla investment in its newest Gigafactory in Santa Catarina may be expanded to US$10 billion when the plant starts assembling a new, cheaper to produce model there in a few years. Elon Musk already met twice with local officials there and Tesla has reportedly acquired the Giga Mexico plots, too.
Daniel Zlatev, Published 12/19/2022 🇫🇷 🇪🇸 ...
E-Mobility

https://www.notebookcheck.net/New-Tesla-Gigafactory-in-Mexico-may-be-for-cheaper-Model-2-production-with-US-10-billion-investment.675769.0.html

Tesla Stock in 5 Years: Will Elon Musk’s Company Keep Leading the EV Market?

https://capital.com/tesla-stock-price-in-5-years#:~:text=As%20for%20the%20long-term%20outlook%20for%20Tesla%20stock%2C,a%20baseline%20Tesla%20stock%205-year%20forecast%20of%20%241%2C534.22.

11 Problems With Tesla Nobody Talks About

Tesla has done a lot for the EV industry, but owners are still facing countless problems with the brand's vehicles.

https://www.hotcars.com/problems-with-tesla-nobody-talks-about/

zzyzzx says

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

244.20-12.80 (-4.98%)

As of 10:18AM EST. Market open.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-shares-slide-more-than-3-as-goldman-downgrades-stock-to-sell-2017-02-27/

Tesla shares slide more than 4% as Goldman downgrades stock to sell

Goldman is expecting the launch of the Model 3 to be delayed and expects Tesla shares to be pressured through the year by an accelerating free cash flow burn rate. The company is expected to raise capital again before the fourth quarter, after Chief Executive Elon Musk acknowledged that need on the company’s latest quarterly earnings call.

“We see room for shares to de-rate as the Model 3 production launch likely disappoints and as an unproven SolarCity business model likely weighs on the company’s focus/results,” said Tamb...

Someone revived this thread today. A flash from the past. It’s fun to look at the comments. 😁

GS had a sell rating at $244 in 2017. Adjusted 15:1 stock splits = $16.20/share. TSLA is trading at $125 after a 70% from the peak. What I’ve learned in real life experience is that if the GS analyst was so smart, s/he wouldn’t be working for GS, but for him/herself. Warren Buffett is correct in his assessment.

Someone disliked this thread. 😂😂😂

This guy is truly a Tesla fan. He bought his house in 2020 for $2,069,420. Just sold it for $2.825M. Used some of the proceeds and bought 10k more shares of Tesla. Incredible.

https://twitter.com/jasondebolt/status/1618716587963588608?ref_src=patrick.net



I spent $30k buying leap debit call spreads in the hope of making $90k in a couple years if things work out. Break even on the $160/$210 call spreads today. Still down $336 on the $200/$250 ones as I was averaging down. Green on the rest of them.

Yep, I should have added shares at the bottom. But, my portfolio is already "overweight" with Tesla Shares. I should have said F-that, sold off crap like Roblox and bought at the bottom.
Their energy biz for grid-scale battery packs is sold out through 2023 and beyond.
Once they start making Cybertruck deliveries, that's pure profit. Tesla has 1.5 million units in backlog @ $60k min each. That's $90 Bn in orders.

rocketjoe79 says

Yep, I should have added shares at the bottom. But, my portfolio is already "overweight" with Tesla Shares. I should have said F-that, sold off crap like Roblox and bought at the bottom.
Their energy biz for grid-scale battery packs is sold out through 2023 and beyond.
Once they start making Cybertruck deliveries, that's pure profit. Tesla has 1.5 million units in backlog $60k min each. That's $90 Bn in orders.

So what's the price forecast for the EOY?

zzyzzx says

I think I've only seen a Tesla in person once. For comparison purposes, I see Chevy Volt's all the time.

SFBA is now as lousy with Teslas as it was with beige Corollas in the 00s.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla-model-y-passes-toyota-corolla-become-best-selling-car-world-2023

Tesla Model Y Passes Toyota Corolla To Become Best Selling Car In The World In 2023

Booger says

Tesla Model Y Passes Toyota Corolla To Become Best Selling Car In The World In 2023

Wow. I wonder if over time the cumulative sales will outpace the Ford Model T.

Booger says

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla-model-y-passes-toyota-corolla-become-best-selling-car-world-2023

Tesla Model Y Passes Toyota Corolla To Become Best Selling Car In The World In 2023

And Tesla is making Ferrari level gross margin on every car they make - not even including government subsidies. Every other automaker making EV’s are losing money on every EV they make.

Eman says

I want to get some thoughts on this electric car company. It looks like they are not going to make money anytime soon. However, this stock can be a great trading vehicle with a strong support in the low 20's.

Thoughts?

Thanks.

#energy

Well, the original post didn't age well......

Teslas are EVERYWHERE on my commute to Orlando each weekday. Seems that every tenth car is a Tesla.

However, I live in an Engineering/Aerospace Heavy area.

Car stocks in general suck as do airline stocks.

If you buy mutual funds however, it's likely some TSLA is in the mix, oh well.

My BIL was shitting all
over TSLA as a stock and a company back in 2011-12. Knowing what I know about his general judgement I went ahead and bought some TSLA stock. Low and behold: it's 2023, my BIL is praising his standard-range MY as a supercar and best thing since sliced bread and does not remember what he was saying a decade ago (the latter is typical, lol). Me? Still holding that stock in tax-advantaged accounts.

Booger says

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla-model-y-passes-toyota-corolla-become-best-selling-car-world-2023

Tesla Model Y Passes Toyota Corolla To Become Best Selling Car In The World In 2023

Probably has more to due with supply chain issues and/or Toyota intentionally limiting supply then the cars themselves.

zzyzzx says

Booger says

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla-model-y-passes-toyota-corolla-become-best-selling-car-world-2023

Tesla Model Y Passes Toyota Corolla To Become Best Selling Car In The World In 2023

Probably has more to due with supply chain issues and/or Toyota intentionally limiting supply then the cars themselves.

Eh.... Toyota does make good cars. The problem is corporate. I've learned a lot about my one neighbor over the years. He himself has made massive mistakes. No joking he ordered 10k Sienna minivans for the entire Chicagoland and it was supposed be be 1k based on monthly inventory. An actual typo adding one zero.

Once that order goes in, production ramps up for a 10k order. He fucked up. It was pre-covid, but you could have gotten a Sienna if you're a minivan person for super cheap in our region. They still sold and it's corporate so no one really actually cares. Show up to work, pick up the phone and you'll have a job without a recession.

RWSGFY says

Me? Still holding that stock in tax-advantaged accounts.

Me too. Bought early before the first splits and bought some more during the latest dips.

Tesla makes no sense.

We're in a world where companies that don't make money are tremendously over-valued, and companies that actually do make money, are tremendously under-valued.

We don't have a capitalist system at all, this is not a free market in any way.

Electric vehicles are a disaster for the environment. You burn energy, to turn it into electricity (that's about 40% efficient) you transmit it and depending on the length of the lines it can be up to 99% efficient to 50% efficient, then you charge your battery which can be up to 90% efficient, and you dispense the power, which is close to 100% efficiency.

In no way is this better than conventional internal combustion engines which are about 30% to 40% efficient, you START with that by producing electricity.

This is part of clown world.

I have a sort of Cassandra Complex, where she was able to accurately foretell the future only to be cursed in that nobody would believe her. I'm cursed with knowing the present with nobody believing me.

Knowledge isn't power, it's crippling. I can find a scam 10 years ahead of everybody else - it doesn't help me. I consistently over-estimate the intelligence and knowledge of the public.

Electric vehicles only exist because the government tilts the marketplace. If there were no taxation, no subsidies, no penalties, no rewards from the government, nobody would own one because they are more expensive to buy, to own, to use because they require more energy to make, to own, and to use.

Here's a cobalt mine:




Look at us as we save the environment...

And here is a coal mine to generate the juice to power the electric car:

HeadSet says

And here is a coal mine to generate the juice to power the electric car:

Eco-friendly!! lol

richwicks says

Electric vehicles are a disaster for the environment. You burn energy, to turn it into electricity (that's about 40% efficient) you transmit it and depending on the length of the lines it can be up to 99% efficient to 50% efficient, then you charge your battery which can be up to 90% efficient, and you dispense the power, which is close to 100% efficiency.

In no way is this better than conventional internal combustion engines which are about 30% to 40% efficient, you START with that by producing electricity.

1) It takes a tremendous amount of electricity and energy to refine oil into a gallon of gas to burn in our cars. It also takes alot of energy to transport fuel tankers all over the country to fill up individual gas stations.

2) Tesla expects inside of 50 years we will be at a near closed loop system for batteries where there will be enough old batteries for recycling to eliminate the need for additional mining. 100% of the expensive and exotic metals found in rechargeable batteries can be recycled and used over and over again without degradation.

3) Teslas are simply the best driving cars on the planet IMO. They are also the safest by a country mile breaking all records.

socal2 says

1) It takes a tremendous amount of electricity and energy to refine oil into a gallon of gas to burn in our cars. It also takes alot of energy to transport fuel tankers all over the country to fill up individual gas stations.

Remove subsidies and taxation for incentives, and let's find out. The free market is king, and it is BY FAR the best solution. We have what the USSR did now, a centralized economy run by incompetents, by morons.

socal2 says

2) Tesla expects inside of 50 years we will be at a near closed loop system

It's marketing. Don't believe what a company says. What do you expect them to say? "This is ultimately unworkable"?

Every company I've worked for has marketers that lie.

socal2 says

3) Teslas are simply the best driving cars on the planet IMO. They are also the safest by a country mile breaking all records.

Possibly. But they don't have to be electric to do this, do they?

richwicks says

socal2 says

1) It takes a tremendous amount of electricity and energy to refine oil into a gallon of gas to burn in our cars. It also takes alot of energy to transport fuel tankers all over the country to fill up individual gas stations.

Remove subsidies and taxation for incentives, and let's find out.

Hell skip that. Remove oil from the process to make a Tesla.... Shut down the coal to run a power plant. Tesla doesn't exist overnight because they can't mine or ship the material to their factories.

Tesla is a cool car to drive. ANY inkling that it's green is pure shit. We need CO2. ICE emits waaaay less emission than 30 years ago. No one focuses on that and the fact we don't have to build to infrastructure to make them, it exists already. If CO2 is your thing (not you Rich) Tesla almost certainly has output exponentially more than say Ford or Chevy.

The concept of EV's is cool, but don't be fooled by thinking it's better for the environment. It's worse. And yes, at some point houses with EV chargers will be charged more for electric if it's not already happening.

If you want EV's to be green we need mostly nuclear power. I don't think we've had a new one come online in a while and they take years and billions to make. And given other markets we likely don't have qualified people to build them currently. June 2016... to 2023 https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/07/a-new-nuclear-reactor-in-the-us-starts-up-for-first-time-in-seven-years.html

Until all states build 1 NEW nuke plant, your Tesla is worse for the environment. 7 years to get a new one going in Georgia. Think how many nuclear power plants Musk could have built instead of buying Twitter? He has no interest in green energy. I don't mind the guy, but he's a businessman, regardless of engineering. He's not doing it. He probably got on an electric golf cart and was like how can we do this in a car. EV's have been around forever at your local golf course. Was using them when I was 16.

Creating a successful multinational EV company seems easier than building a new nuke plant.

rocketjoe79 says

Creating a successful multinational EV company seems easier than building a new nuke plant.

Stock price and market cap successful?? It's not and never will be sustainable. We're not running out of oil. You can run a nuke for centuries if maintained. Generally transmission lines are in place. The elements needed for the batteries are in far shorter supply and discoverable than oil. 4% isn't gangbusters and all the others are investing in EV's as well. https://www.statista.com/statistics/249375/us-market-share-of-selected-automobile-manufacturers/

Tesla is dead in the water at some point. Musk bought Twitter. A complete waste of money. Nukes print money once online. And it's green. He gives no shits about actual green energy. Look at the massive amount of fuel wasted on a rocket to blow it up. All that money could have been spent elsewhere.... like nukes. Everyone just freaks out from two, mainly one big accident.

It's not the 70's. Nuclear power plants are not blowing up shooting radioactive shit everyone. There's a war going on around nukes in Ukraine and everything is fine. If drunk Eastern Europeans can manage to fight a war and not blow up nuclear power plants, I think we're in good shape building more here in the US.

WookieMan says

The concept of EV's is cool, but don't be fooled by thinking it's better for the environment. It's worse. And yes, at some point houses with EV chargers will be charged more for electric if it's not already happening.

To be fair, I have alot of friends in SoCal that charge their cars from the solar installed at their houses and work places.

I personally never cared about any environmental benefit. I know that my electricity comes from burning natural gas. Tesla was simply the very best car I could afford. I got zero incentives from the government, but it is costing me $100 less a month to own and operate than my old Hyundai Sonata which is not even a fraction of a car compared to the performance and features of my Model Y.

richwicks says

Remove subsidies and taxation for incentives, and let's find out.

Are you saying remove all the subsidies and incentives for oil production which is estimated to be up to $50 Billion a year in the US alone? There were no subsidies available last year when I got my Model Y and it still costs me less to drive than a standard mid-range sedan like my old Hyundai.

richwicks says

It's marketing. Don't believe what a company says. What do you expect them to say?

I believe companies that have a proven track record of delivering on their promises. Granted we have "Elon Time" which means to basically add a couple years to Elon's predictions - but at the end of the day - Tesla and SpaceX are creating and delivering world class technology.

Some people still don't believe that Tesla is going to solve self driving. Look at what they have already accomplished!

Drive from San Francisco to LA with zero interventions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEUbnHt_Ezc

socal2 says

I believe companies that have a proven track record of delivering on their promises. Granted we have "Elon Time" which means to basically add a couple years to Elon's predictions - but at the end of the day - Tesla and SpaceX are creating and delivering world class technology.

This.

My favorite is "ElOn DiDn'T Do NuTtIn"

Yeah, what, Ignited internet commerce with Paypal, Tesla is one of the best selling cars in the USA, and Space X has a reuseable rocket that at price per kilo, not even old cheap Soyuz can compete with AND the only fully rated Human Space Capsule in the USA with years of service behind it already, Dragon.

@socal2,

Getting solar installed on our house. It’s pricey for a 14.8 kW system. Hopefully it’ll be worth it. It’s supposed to pay for itself in a decade or so while the warranty is 25 years with 92% efficiency remaining then.

Same here. I bought my S b/c I wanted it. It had nothing to do with the environment. I install solar, and it has nothing to do with the environment. Why do people think we do these things b/c of the environment? It makes sense from a financial POV. That’s all.

We qualify for $7.5k state rebate and $7.5k Federal based on our 2022 tax returns. Been thinking of buying a Model Y just because of this. Net cost after rebate and credit is $35.5k for it, but we don’t need another car. 😂

People just don’t give Elon enough credit. I can totally relate to “Elon’s time”. 😅

WookieMan says

EV's have been around forever at your local golf course.

Yes, been around forever, not just golf carts:



Production of the Detroit Electric automobile, powered by a rechargeable lead acid battery, began in 1907. For an additional US$600, an Edison nickel-iron battery was available from 1911 to 1916. The cars were advertised as reliably getting 80 miles (130 km) between battery recharging, although in one test a Detroit Electric ran 211.3 miles (340.1 km) on a single charge. Top speed was only about 20 mph (32 km/h), but this was considered adequate for driving within city or town limits at the time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Electric

Model S Plaid with track pack just set new lap record for “a production EV” at Nürburgring. Beat the old time by 8 sec.

https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1665068919109951489?t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q&ref_src=patrick.net

https://notthebee.com/article/wow-israeli-survived-attack-from-hamas-and-outran-killers-with-tesla-model-3-that-took-insane-damage-and-still-was-able-to-navigate-him-to-the-er

An Israeli man, only identified by the initial "C" found himself surrounded by Hamas on the day of the invasion on his way to report to the city's emergency squad.

The Hamas fighters started immediately firing upon the man in his Tesla Model 3, aiming at the back and the front of the car. However, since the Tesla is an electric vehicle with no front engine, they were unable to disable the car with the shots.

"They did not realize that it was an electric vehicle, so they shot at the front, hoping to hit the engine that was not there, and at the back, trying to set the fuel tank on fire that the car doesn't have. They shot my tires. I stepped on the gas and they started chasing me," C. said.

C. was chased by the jihadists and reached speeds of over 110 miles per hour. This is while the Tesla had a flat tire.

C. credited the Tesla's all-wheel drive mode for keeping him on the road. He was able to outrun the truck that was chasing him and made it to the hospital to receive treatment for the gunshot wounds he sustained.

He's lucky they didn't hit the battery - that shit burns fast and hot.

That's exactly what I thought.

Hamas just hasn't a clue about Teslas because they never see them. Had they known, they would have gone for the battery.