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(...and, the conspicuously unspoken context of my above statements...)
Thank you to everyone who contributes a little and (especially) a lot to this blog. It is unique in its genre (investment generally, housing specifically) for the level of intelligence and mutual respect among disagreeing factions. I know that it periodically requires active moderation to keep it that way. You're doing a great job.
I have started a new discussion thread by request of AntiTroll from Oz: Dream Homes"
Peter P
2005 Aug 16, 2:46pm
What we need for this blog is a threaded discussion forum. Anyone used a good one lately?
We have a BAHC newsgroup on google:
http://groups-beta.google.com/group/BAHC
It is dead but we can resuscitate it.
Peter P
2005 Aug 16, 3:03pm
I think 1% MoM increase is highly probable for SF though.
I think we may actually see higher MoM increases on medien price for SF in the near future as the market peaks before a correction.
MP.
Most landlords in San Francisco own multi-unit buildings, not condos. I own a 2-unit building and live in one, so the other is under rent control. This is why there are such political fights over condo conversion here: every apartment converted to a condo removes one more unit from rent control.
TICs are under rent control, condos are not. I know that is bizarre, but that is because Sacramento passed a law that removed all single unit owned properties from rent control, including both single family homes and condos.
Hope that clears up any confusion. I am hardly an expert at this stuff, but I know how it affects my own situation.
Cheers,
Jimbo
Peter P
2005 Aug 17, 2:31am
I guess, the secret to not getting too harmed by rent control...
Rent control harms everyone. It harms landlords in the short run and tenants in the long run. Perhaps we should repeal it.
Which is more evil: prop 13 or rent control?
Peter P
2005 Aug 17, 10:16am
The higher housing prices go, the less affordable housing is. Therefore, rents rise. It’s a beautiful thing!
Only if you have pricing power...
Your statement is apparently untrue at least for "sub-prime" locations. :)
C'mon, MP, I know you can give better reason than this.
I’m fully prepared to face the upswing in rental prices by raising my rent! That’s pretty logical right Rick? The higher housing prices go, the less affordable housing is. Therefore, rents rise. It’s a beautiful thing!
Cheers,
MP
If rents rise, so will CPI, then interest rates will need to go higher.
Peter P
2005 Aug 17, 4:41pm
CPI won’t rise with increases in rental prices. Remember, CPI is inflation excluding EVERYTHING PEOPLE ACTUALLY PAY FOR i.e. oil, gas, rent, etc. I love economists
I believe CPI includes rent but not house prices.
Seriously folks, I really kid you not, rents are rising in The Marina and Cow Hollow.
I believe you... desirable locations have they own little markets. However, general markets in the Bay Area are not looking so good.
Actually, i have an example of a nice top floor 1,300sqft, 2b/2bath condo that just closed escrow today. Asking price a whopping $1.15MM, and it went for $1.25MM! Almost $1,000/ sqft for this place. Nice deck, and roofdeck…… but wow… that’s getting up there to what i paid for my 2,400 SFH back in January!
If property is valued at dollars / sqft, it would make sense to keep adding floors to your property (provided zoning allows) . I assume building cost to be something alot lower than $1000 / sqft.
It would also mean that a better deal would be to buy very small and then addon!
Peter P
2005 Aug 18, 6:29am
I actually have about 13 feet deeper i can expand into my lot to match my neighbors.
Remember that glass sun room you talked about? It will cost more than $250/sf though. :)
MP,
......and if all your neighbors are 2 stories, you cannot build a 3rd story.
Building costs = $250/sqft.
IT would even be worth your while to pay for your neighbours extensions. I'm sure they would not stop you then.
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"And the dry years would come and sometimes there would only be seven or eight inches of rain. The land dried up and the grasses headed out miserably a few inches high and great bare scabby places appeared in the valley. The live oaks got a crusty look and the cattle listlessly nibbled dry twigs. Then the farmers and the ranchers would be filled with disgust for the Salinas Valley. The cows would grow thin and sometimes starve to death. People would have to haul water in barrels to their farms just for drinking. Some families would sell out for nearly nothing and move away. And it never failed that during the dry years the people forgot about the rich years, and during the wet years, they lost all memory of the dry years. It was always that way."
– John Steinbeck, East of Eden
Why do some people fail to learn lessons from history? Why is it that the very same people who have been personally hurt by one bubble will often fail to recognize the danger signals when a new one arises? Why do they continue to make the same mistakes over and over again?
Selective memory may be a universal human flaw that we all share to some extent, but why do some have it in more abundance than others? Is there a gene for optimism or speculative behavior?
Some of us have already shared anecdotal information and personal stories in previous threads about the last CA housing bubble, which peaked around 1989 and troughed in 1996. Some of you can even remember the bubble before that --in the late 70's. Others enjoy drawing parallels between the current housing bubble and the stock market tech bubble of the late 90's. Even if you're to young to have personally experienced a previous asset bubble firsthand, you no doubt have heard stories from other people. Please share your favorites with us, along with any "lessons" or insights they may have provided you.
HARM
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