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Lessons from Bubbles Past


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2005 Aug 14, 12:10pm   13,709 views  140 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

"And the dry years would come and sometimes there would only be seven or eight inches of rain. The land dried up and the grasses headed out miserably a few inches high and great bare scabby places appeared in the valley. The live oaks got a crusty look and the cattle listlessly nibbled dry twigs. Then the farmers and the ranchers would be filled with disgust for the Salinas Valley. The cows would grow thin and sometimes starve to death. People would have to haul water in barrels to their farms just for drinking. Some families would sell out for nearly nothing and move away. And it never failed that during the dry years the people forgot about the rich years, and during the wet years, they lost all memory of the dry years. It was always that way."

– John Steinbeck, East of Eden

Why do some people fail to learn lessons from history? Why is it that the very same people who have been personally hurt by one bubble will often fail to recognize the danger signals when a new one arises? Why do they continue to make the same mistakes over and over again?

Selective memory may be a universal human flaw that we all share to some extent, but why do some have it in more abundance than others? Is there a gene for optimism or speculative behavior?

Some of us have already shared anecdotal information and personal stories in previous threads about the last CA housing bubble, which peaked around 1989 and troughed in 1996. Some of you can even remember the bubble before that --in the late 70's. Others enjoy drawing parallels between the current housing bubble and the stock market tech bubble of the late 90's. Even if you're to young to have personally experienced a previous asset bubble firsthand, you no doubt have heard stories from other people. Please share your favorites with us, along with any "lessons" or insights they may have provided you.

HARM

#housing

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138   AntiTroll from Oz   2005 Aug 17, 5:30pm  

Actually, i have an example of a nice top floor 1,300sqft, 2b/2bath condo that just closed escrow today. Asking price a whopping $1.15MM, and it went for $1.25MM! Almost $1,000/ sqft for this place. Nice deck, and roofdeck…… but wow… that’s getting up there to what i paid for my 2,400 SFH back in January!

If property is valued at dollars / sqft, it would make sense to keep adding floors to your property (provided zoning allows) . I assume building cost to be something alot lower than $1000 / sqft.

It would also mean that a better deal would be to buy very small and then addon!

139   Peter P   2005 Aug 18, 6:29am  

I actually have about 13 feet deeper i can expand into my lot to match my neighbors.

Remember that glass sun room you talked about? It will cost more than $250/sf though. :)

140   AntiTroll from Oz   2005 Aug 18, 8:39am  

MP,

......and if all your neighbors are 2 stories, you cannot build a 3rd story.

Building costs = $250/sqft.

IT would even be worth your while to pay for your neighbours extensions. I'm sure they would not stop you then.

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