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housing will go to zero..?


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2011 Mar 7, 10:03am   27,165 views  45 comments

by 709hannah   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

how many here (if any) feel that a certain percentage of housing could go to zero? meaning either the home can not be sold for legal(aka MERS) reasons or that when financial markets freeze, there will be no money/credit available to lend so a home would be 'worthless' as a financial product.

i would hazard a guess that at least 20% and maybe closer to 40% of R.E. could have such severe MERS issues that it would be unsellable. if we have a major financial melt down i think the numbers could be 50-65% of homes that would be unsellable due to lack of funding.....

right now the federal government is financing 100% of the costs of gov with QE. when QE stops, R.E. loans stop as 98% of the securitization market is now freddie and fannie.....housing goes to zero.

...remember we bulldozed homes, shot cattle and burned crops in the 30's......but this time is different?

#housing

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41   pkowen   2011 Mar 21, 8:30am  

WTF Finance says

But the original point is housing going to zero, I think it should have been defined from the beginning what the definition of “housing” for this discussion. To me, housing = property + land which will always have some value. Sure, the shack on the property could be worth nothing or even have a slightly negative value due to the removal cost but I’m sure somebody is willing to pay something for that land.

Whatever happened to the Superdome that they sold for $500k? Would have made a great growing op…j/k

I disagree, some land *is* worth zero. There are plenty of sales of state and LG owned land (in different states across the country) where all one has to do is pay current property taxes and the title is yours. Many of these auctions and sales do not close because no one feels the land is worth the property tax. And we are talking about good sized plots, even acres of land for hundreds of dollars. There is also land that would be worth "less than zero", due to toxic waste and other problems that would require expenditure just to make it worth having.

It's an opportunity especially if you think land is always worth something. I've looked at some myself. I would just say, "buyer beware".

42   maxweber   2011 Mar 21, 11:40pm  

Not to mention land with bad houses will be subject to taxes. And to those penalties the counties give if you don't maintian the place. So, the cost is probably $1000+ per year for most any place in the USA. If you can't sell it, you now have a negative cost land.

Also, the Federal lands such as the one the Federal government allows FREE mining on for some companies. From teh miniing companies perspective the land is free. From the taxpayers perspective the land is of negative value as the state is taking on more liability as the land is disturbed and losing any inherent value the mining company removes. http://www.seattlepi.com/specials/mining/26875_mine11.shtml

43   American in Japan   2011 Mar 22, 2:50pm  

OK. That would be true. In light of the liability of property tax land could be worth zero or less. This might be a good point for the Georgist land tax.

Troy, any comments?

44   maxweber   2011 Mar 23, 1:22am  

I often marvel at how naive the regulars on this forum are but I used to be too. Most of the landlords on here are in rich areas so don't know jack about the real world it seems. What happens when the crack heads use your place for a flop house? When they bust the water pipes? Guess what: YOU get the bill. What about when some teenager falls off your roof. (Probably on purpose as everyone knows but that can never be proven). Or when the neighbors decides to sue you? Or the IRS decides its time to collect that $30K lien that's been sitting there for years (and don't think the title insurance company will pick that one up)!!!
As I found out in tax sales, there are lots of negative value properties.
not to mention gobs of waaaasted time messing with these when you could have been fishing.

BTW, there's a houses near here zoned biz that went for $300K at one point a few years ago and is now sitting REO at $119K. Got the sideboards ripped off of one wall. But its a safe area so will be Ok. But what happens when some HS kid decides to punch holes in the walls or throw rocks through all the windows? Some rain... pretty soon, worthless.

45   EBGuy   2011 Mar 23, 10:28am  

I was a bit tentative about being a landlord until I bought 5 properties and actually did it.
I'm still cowering in the corner clutching my HELOC. Are there any resources you'd recommend (besides, ya know, having inhouse counsel)?

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