patrick.net

Some people would like to see this kinda stuff on CS index only :)

bubblesitter says

Some people would like to see this kinda stuff on CS index only

Until Clear Capital better suits their argument.

So your "trend" starts in 2009 or 2004 ?

Not sure if I understood you correctly.

As I noted two months ago, this is exactly the same way the CS Composite-10 acted in the nineties downturn. It hit a post peak low, and then two years later took out that low.
Not to defend the duck, but did you read the WSJ blog link from Patrick's front page? For 44-year-old Annette Corsetti, the price drops in her hometown of Concord enabled her to buy a home for the first time. "I could never afford a home before," said Ms. Corsetti, a single mother of one who paid $225,000 in September for a three-bedroom home in Concord that in 2007 was valued at about $500,000. This is why Ducky is so confident. I'm pretty sure he paid less than $200k for his properties when most everyone else was scared $@%@less. While I have have no doubt the CS SF Bay Area Index will go lower, it will require some heavy lifting from the high and mid range to hit a new post bubble low. I will note that a I was nearly jumped in the elevator by someone from another company looking for bodies to work at their company. And this wasn't some social media dot web 2.0 firm; they do real engineering and software development.
At any rate, this new (composite) low does feel like the other shoe finally dropped.

Remember that episode of Happy Days when Fonzie tried to say, "I was wrong", but he just couldn't do it? I liked that episode.

Some economist named Shiller (not sure if it was Rob) was on NPR yesterday, he estimated that housing will be going down for quite a while now, and it's value* is going to stay basically flat (or drop in some areas) for a very very long time.

So for anyone out there who is still dreaming of investing into flipping tulips perhaps this could be a wake up call to start considering investing into stock market.

ChrisLA says

Some economist named Shiller (not sure if it was Rob) was on NPR yesterday

Robert Shiller.. Same guy that was the first to predict the Tech bubble back in the late 90s and housing bubble 7+ years ago. Needless to say he was the only one making those predictions back then, and was not taken serious during the media interviews he did.

But he has been very accurate...

thomas.wong1986 says

ChrisLA says

Some economist named Shiller (not sure if it was Rob) was on NPR yesterday

Robert Shiller.. Same guy that was the first to predict the Tech bubble back in the late 90s and housing bubble 7+ years ago. Needless to say he was the only one making those predictions back then, and was not taken serious during the media interviews he did.
But he has been very accurate…

Ah good, I wasn't sure if it was him since he was introduced by his last name. He does have a very good point.

Friday, 27 September, 2002,

Market madness ending, says Buffett

The "mass hallucination" that gripped the world's stock markets during the tech boom is ending, the US investment guru Warren Buffett has told the BBC.

He said the markets were now "more realistic" compared with the share bubble of a few years ago, when investors ignored common sense and started "dreaming".

Mr Buffett added that the hallucination had led to an erosion of accounting standards, which erupted so damagingly over the past few months.

And he said investors should take a long-term view with their money if they wanted to be successful.