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What Credit Crunch?


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2008 Nov 12, 1:01am   43,285 views  241 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

lending

Aloha Patrick,
I am intrigued by Countrywide's offer to lend $824,000 to John in your news links and have wondered... is all this hype about credit somewhat mythical? It would be interesting to find out what people can still borrow and what they can't. I just qualified for a Home Depot credit card in 3 minutes over the phone for $7000. My score is in the high 600's to low 700's.

So my question is this: when they talk about the credit crisis what are they refering too? People with low scores and incomes that creditors can't prey on anymore, banks that have reserves but are unwilling to lend, or businesses which are going under but somehow managed to get credit even when filing bankruptcy, like Circut City? Or my favorite: the contractor who bought his debt back, featured recently in your blog? By the way how did Houdini do it? Inquiring minds want to know. Are there any more articles on this guy? What's really going on here? Someone's not playing fair in the gov't, Wall St powers that be, or...? Somebody's making the rules up as they go cause I smell a rat...

Kim

It would be really interesting to get all the readers here to see what insane amounts they can still qualify for.

Patrick

#housing

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148   Malcolm   2008 Nov 14, 6:17am  

Justme, your concluding point is interesting. Yes, the bottom line number, the guy's actual gross paycheck is closer to $25-$35 per hour. All the oter nonsense is a result of unions and creative liberal taxation, which is why I made that point further up. All that junk where you are paying 2 or 3 times per hour what the guy's wage is is extremely wasteful and why these companies are flocking to go overseas. People can't pay their own taxes and expenses so it is creatively all rolled into the 'compensation' that they get. When people understand this, they might have a little different perspective.

149   OO   2008 Nov 14, 6:26am  

$73 is including salary loading, which includes FICA, medical insurance, 401K matching and all that good stuff. The real biggie part of salary loading is actually T&E expenses for those who travel, it can go really high.

The detroit workers don't travel, the most salary loading they will get is around 35-40%, which makes it ~$54 per hour, plus overtime, which is way better than anyone makes in such a skill-equivalent job. Even without overtime, they are making about $120K a year. Jealous?

Well, wait until you hear that the Oakland dock workers are getting paid $200K per year. With BDI going the way it is now, I am sure these $200K jobs are drying up real fast.

150   OO   2008 Nov 14, 6:28am  

justme,

there is no possibility that benefits and taxes add up to over 100% of one's salary. If you know of such a job, I'd like to apply :-) I wonder what kind of benefits I'd get, free access to the gentleman's club?

I am pretty sure the Detroit car workers are making around $50, not $25-30 per hour.

151   justme   2008 Nov 14, 6:47am  

Malcolm,

I think that it should be further noted that I believe that the automaker corporations are creatively accounting for some or all of their current retiree expenses by rolling then into the above totally fake "hourly rate". That makes the rate is just lies and propaganda.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2007-09-17-gm-uaw_N.htm?csp=34

The thieves at the big 3 automakers intentionally underfunded their pension plans so that they could pay themselves big bonuses and then later use the same underfunding as the rationale to break the union. What a plan, pretty "brilliant", is it not.

It works roughly the same way as when Bush squanders taxpayer money on war and corporate giveaways, and then turns around and says, "sorry, social security is going bankrupt".

Note from the article: Big 3 have about 3x as many active UAW workers as they have retirees -- planning for the retirement cost is part of their responsibility.

152   Malcolm   2008 Nov 14, 6:48am  

In cost accounting believe it or not the load or burden rate used is as much as 300%. That is the full direct labor cost (hourly rate x burden). I'm not disputing the auto workers' actual hourly rate, could be $50, but although it is counter-intuitive, burden rates for all the extra stuff can easily exceed that of the hourly rate.
Everyone says it is nonsense until they start adding it up and find the bank account is short :(

153   justme   2008 Nov 14, 6:49am  

Here's the sidebar from the USA today article:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2007-09-17-gm-uaw_N.htm?csp=34

CONTRACT TALKS AT A GLANCE

Who: Contracts between the UAW and General Motors, Ford and Chrysler
cover 180,681 U.S. hourly workers and 540,344 retirees and surviving
spouses.

What: The union has named GM its lead company, which means it will
negotiate a contract with GM and then ask Ford and Chrysler to accept
the same terms. If there is a strike, GM plants will be targeted.

When: Contracts were set to expire Sept. 14 at miidnight. Ford and
Chrysler have extended their contracts indefinitely. GM workers could
strike any time if talks hit a wall.

The issues: Labor Costs: The three automakers lost $15 billion last
year. Chrysler pays an average $75.86 an hour in wages, pension and
health care benefits, GM pays $73.26 and Ford pays $70.51. Toyota pays
U.S. workers about $48, U.S. automakers say. Health care: The three
companies have $90.5 billion in unfunded retiree health care
obligations. They want to establish a fund — a voluntary employee
beneficiary association (VEBA) — with part of that money and let the
union be responsible for future benefits. The amount of the fund is a
big issue.

Job security: UAW membership has fallen from 1.5 million active members
in 1979 to around 576,000 today, and the union already has agreed to
buyout plans and changes to retiree health care. The union likely is
seeking pledges to keep jobs at U.S. plants in exchange for agreeing to
the VEBA. The UAW says labor is only about 10% of the cost of a vehicle.

154   Malcolm   2008 Nov 14, 6:53am  

Justme, I'll check it out. It should not be the case, but nothing surprises me. That is one thing that really disgusts me with 'activity based costing' which is that it unfairly burdens those that do the work and makes them look more expensive because of the allocation of overhead type costs. That is another reason when companies do outsource they are surprised that their costs didn't really go down, and there is now an impoverished town incapable of buying the goods that were once made there. I'm telling you guys, corporate America sucks, and it is not the workers doing the work that is the problem. American cars don't suck because of their assembly, they suck because of their design and the company structures.

155   justme   2008 Nov 14, 6:54am  

OO,

Agreed. There is no way that the workers OWN benefits are 100% of wages. I think the reason is that the Big 3 department of creative accounting are attributing some or all of the expenses of ALREADY RETIRED WORKERS to a fake "effective hourly rate" of the CURRENT WORKERS.

In my book that is just lies and propaganda.

156   justme   2008 Nov 14, 6:58am  

To no-one in particular,

I can't believe that I find myself defending ANY aspect of the dysfunctional idiocracy that is Detroit. I hate their god-awful gas-guzzling ways, but I cannot stand for this type of right-wing propaganda being spread out for the purpose of blaming the workers for management malfeasance.

157   justme   2008 Nov 14, 7:00am  

>>Note from the article: Big 3 have about 3x as many active UAW workers as they have retirees — planning for the retirement cost is part of their responsibility.

CORRECTION, it should have stated "3 times as many retirees as actives"

158   justme   2008 Nov 14, 7:02am  

Malcolm,

I appreciate it. Will be very interested in hearing what you find out.

159   OO   2008 Nov 14, 7:16am  

Anyhow, I am completely against chipping in for the Big 3.

If they cannot straighten things out and come up with a sustainable operating model that sells enough cars to keep themselves alive, I am not going to pay another car tax on top all the income tax, FICA, medicare, state income, sales tax I am already paying.

Big 3 can roll over and die for all I care, they have proven in the last 20 years that they are not viable business entities, why should we bear the burden of their stupidity? Mass unemployment in Detroit? Like Detroit is not already a ghost town that nobody cares about?

For those who have been pampered with a low-skilled job that pays $120K+, it is about time they wake up to the reality. Most people in America are NOT making $120K, so why should those making far less bail out those making far more?

If the government wants to secure more employment for the US car workers, give the $25B to Toyota, ask them to take over part of GM for free and set up an All-America sourced and built car. That will create far more long-term sustainable employment than the impotent big 3.

160   Peter P   2008 Nov 14, 7:18am  

Or they can simply seek anti-trust action against the unions.

161   OO   2008 Nov 14, 7:20am  

I am not just directing my disapproval to the GM workers, the management is nothing short of a colossal fuck up themselves.

I think any upper management coming out of the big 3 should be banned from taking any senior jobs in other US corporations. People should be ashamed of having big 3 on their resume.

162   Malcolm   2008 Nov 14, 7:22am  

It is definitely a weird disconnect since you can buy a house in Detroit for less than a car costs.

But then again I come back to this hypocrisy. Grind and complain about direct labor costs, that is capitalism at its best, make a whistle sound in a graduate class when you find out CEOs at automakers make 10s of millions of dollars a year and the CEO of Toyota makes less than 500K and a Peter P type starts in with the 'It's the American way' rhetoric.

163   Malcolm   2008 Nov 14, 7:24am  

OO, no fucking kidding. You would think the free market would stop these people from getting jobs of that caliber in the future. The truth is, these boomers go from train wreck to train wreck. Somehow they are considered seasoned and experienced.

164   Malcolm   2008 Nov 14, 7:26am  

Peter, here in CA at least there is a compromise. A union can't stop you from working like they could in other places, and still can I think in some states. California is a 'right to work' state. For all the crap people dish on California I think we have found the best compromiises on a lot of social issues like working.

165   Peter P   2008 Nov 14, 7:35am  

Peter, here in CA at least there is a compromise. A union can’t stop you from working like they could in other places, and still can I think in some states.

That's good to hear.

166   Peter P   2008 Nov 14, 7:37am  

The truth is, these boomers go from train wreck to train wreck. Somehow they are considered seasoned and experienced.

LOL!

I don't consider Obama to be a boomer. Now I really hope that he can save us, or at least mitigate our pain.

167   Malcolm   2008 Nov 14, 7:38am  

Obama is like a Harm type counter-boomer. I really don't lump those under 50 or so in the same grouping in general anyway.

168   justme   2008 Nov 14, 7:39am  

From Yahoo Answers:

According to the Indianapolis Star:

Base wages average about $28 an hour. GM officials say the average reaches $39.68 an hour, including base pay, cost-of-living adjustments, night-shift premiums, overtime, holiday and vacation pay. Health-care, pension and other benefits average another $33.58 an hour, GM says. - September 26, 2007 UNITED AUTO WORKERS OFF THE JOB, Striking back at globalization. By Ted Evanoff

------------------------------------------------------

There is a long way from $28 to $73.28, and a big portion of the difference is attributable to retirees that depend on underfunded or un-funded reirement and helath plans.

169   Peter P   2008 Nov 14, 7:39am  

I really don’t lump those under 50 or so in the same grouping in general anyway.

Yep. Their Pluto is in Libra, that makes that NOT boomer.

170   Malcolm   2008 Nov 14, 7:41am  

Nice job Justme.

171   Peter P   2008 Nov 14, 8:34am  

90K getting a loan of 400K? That insane still?

172   Malcolm   2008 Nov 14, 9:14am  

Normal pmt would be about $3,000 per month. 90K/12 is just under $8,000 per month. A little uncomfortable for my taste but IMO they are barely qualified. It's better than the clowns who used to get $500,000 motgages on $25,000 a year, remember those guys?

173   justme   2008 Nov 14, 10:22am  

Are there any thoughts on the new FDIC plan for mortgage modification, as proposed by Sheila Bair, to the tune of 24B?

Every time I hear about mortgage modification, I wonder whether modification is even worth the trouble attempting in non-recourse loan cases.

Here is a list of which states are directly or effectively non-recourse loan states:

http://www.mortgagereliefformula.com/recourse/

Florida is notably absent from the list.

174   Lost Cause   2008 Nov 14, 11:36am  

German auto workers are heavily unionized. I think if you look at the workers in Korea and Japan, there is also a large union membership. Is anybody else sick of hearing the workers take the blame for poor management? How many more years do we have to put up with this charade?

175   OO   2008 Nov 14, 1:48pm  

At least in Japan, there is NO union power.

It is based on mutual conscience, yes I am talking about conscience. There is an implied lifetime employment, which is still the case with large Japanese corporations. However, Japanese corporations are also hiring more contractors so that they don't have to take on too many lifetime "burden".

So in the still-existing lifetime employment arrangements, employers are expected to take care of the workers throughout his life, and the CEO's best packages kick in AFTER he retires, so that he will be long-term focused, because bankrupting the company obviously isn't going to help his retirement benefits. While serving as the CEO, his pay is capped at a relatively low multiple of average workers.

Detroit is just a colossal cluster fuck, there is no conscience to customers, or to each other. Let'em die, the earlier the better. And please blacklist all the Detroit execs, these morons should only be given ONE chance to ruin a company, and they have done enough.

176   OO   2008 Nov 14, 1:53pm  

http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_10988123

now this marked the official beginning of silicon valley recession.

As far as I remember, there were at least 3 incidences in the Bay Area in 2001/2002 in which either a laid off employee took his own life, or took the life of those who laid him off. Be careful if you need to let someone go.

177   Malcolm   2008 Nov 14, 2:48pm  

Just the first of many I fear.

178   Peter P   2008 Nov 14, 6:27pm  

This highlights the importance of concealed carry weapons. Gunmen can always find the source of illegal firearms. The only way to stop them is having legally armed bystanders.

179   Peter P   2008 Nov 14, 6:41pm  

But I would like to express sympathy to the victims and, at the same time, to condemn the gunman who carried out the crime. May God deliver him to the authority.

180   justme   2008 Nov 14, 11:34pm  

No, rather it highlights the danger of everyone having a handgun either at home or in their pocket, so that when for some reason they have a mental breakdown, carnage is near inevitable. And that is the end of THAT discussion on my part.

181   Eliza   2008 Nov 15, 1:33am  

Not everyone is going to have a breakdown. And those who do are not necessarily going to go for their guns. I see it like this:

If you are going to have guns available, you must educate people on the proper and ethical use of such weapons. Which is to say, primarily as a defensive tool and a deterrent to violence. And obviously as something that needs to be handled and stored with extreme care. Not a glamorous toy but a huge responsibility. I'm not talking a weekend course here, but a comprehensive system that places the ethics deeply into the culture.

If you are not going to go all out with education, then, yeah, guns maybe should not be quite so available.

But Peter does make a good point: the bad guys can almost always find a way to get a gun.

182   Peter P   2008 Nov 15, 2:18am  

I agree with Eliza.

I would agree with justme if and only if he has a real idea to remove guns from everybody.

People also need to improve their emotional intelligence. I know getting laid off is not fun, but it is most definitely not worth committing murder. I personally know many people who ended up in better places (career-wise) after getting laid off during the last cycle.

The truth is: 99.9% of all people are stuck in their lives somehow, somewhere. A disruptive career shock may just be that catalyst to unstuck someone. Look towards the bright side.

However, one must develop a positive mind set. If one is desperate, one can never get a job. Employers do not like to hire people who _need_ a job, just like banks do not lend to people who _need_ credit.

183   Peter P   2008 Nov 15, 2:24am  

I want to know... IF you get laid off, what upsets you the most?

1) your finance is threatened
2) you honor is violated
3) you feel mistreated after putting in so much for the company

(2) and (3) are EQ issues.

I do blame the system for pushing people so hard on people's finance. People should not feel that they must overpay for homes and other toys. Perhaps this is a flaw of the credit-based society.

184   Peter P   2008 Nov 15, 2:30am  

TOB, Japan has a huge generation gap issue too. It is not going to be pretty with such a big difference in expectations.

186   PermaRenter   2008 Nov 15, 3:31am  

Man who lost job at Santa Clara startup killed 3, including CEO and another top executive, police say

A recently laid-off tech employee Friday opened fire inside the Santa Clara office where he used to work, police said, killing three people, including the CEO and another top executive — and sparking a massive dragnet throughout the Bay Area.

Santa Clara police identified Jing Hua Wu, 47, of Mountain View as the man who shot to death two men and one woman with a handgun before driving off in a silver sport-utility vehicle, believed to be a rented Mercury Mariner.

Wu remained at large late Friday, and police warned he should be considered armed and "extremely dangerous."

Friday's violent scene erupted just before 4 p.m., when police say Wu arrived at SiPort, a small semiconductor company at 3255-7 Scott Blvd. and opened fire. Wu, an engineer, had apparently lost his job either Friday morning or Thursday, Santa Clara police Lt. Mike Sellers said.

When police arrived, the gunman already had escaped and was initially believed to be on his way to Mountain View, where police had staked out his home into the night. Other reports indicated he may have been headed to an airport.

Late Tuesday, police identified the two men killed as Sid Agrawal, the company's chief executive, and Brian Pugh, vice president of operations for the company. The identity of the third victim had not been released as of early today.

SiPort is a relatively small company that specializes in developing digital radio semiconductors. It raised at least $20 million in venture capital last year.

Park Square, the complex that includes SiPort's offices, was in lockdown immediately after the shooting as more than two dozen police officers blanketed the sprawling facility and cordoned off the buildings near Octavius Drive. Workers, meanwhile, huddled inside their offices as police with guns drawn cased the area.

Throughout the night, officers stopped and questioned employees in their vehicles as they left the complex.

And, hours later, employees in neighboring businesses were still shaken.

"I was on the computer and a co-worker was going home, and we heard this commotion," said Linh Nguyen, a mechanical engineer who works next door at Excel Precision. "People were running inside our building, strangers, I didn't know who they were. They were very upset, they looked disturbed and then we that three people had been shot."

When Nguyen looked outside, he saw armed officers. So Nguyen and others locked their doors and waited.

"It's very unreal to me," said Nguyen, who added he didn't know anyone who worked at SiPort. "With all these people being laid off, I mean, I know people are upset, but it's hard to imagine that anyone would do this."

"It's certainly a tragedy any time someone feels like this is an action they have to take," Santa Clara Police Chief Stephen Lodge said. "These are truly innocent people whose lives were taken. It's just not right."

In his SiPort biography, Agrawal is described as having more than 25 years of experience at both startups and established tech companies. He had held positions at Adobe Systems, Intel and Bell Labs, as well as at Alliance Semiconductor, Layer Five Networks and Synaptics.

Reached by a Mercury News reporter an hour after Friday's shooting, his wife said she had not yet heard from her husband, and was worried that he hadn't been picking up his cell phone. Agrawal's family could not be reached later in the evening, after his identity was released.

Pugh also is listed on the SiPort biography as having 25 years of experience in semiconductor operations. He attended the University of California-Berkeley and Stanford University and had previously worked at Samsung and IBM.

According to a national study on workplace violence, such crimes account for 20 percent of all violent crime.

Although most workplace violence is not fatal, an average of 500 homicides occur in U.S. workplaces each year. Friday's homicide by a worker who may have been upset about losing his job appears to be the first reported in the South Bay since the economy began to turn sour.

Wu, in some news reports, was said to have a wife and two children. He is described as 5-foot-11 and weighing 170 pounds, with black eyes and black hair. The Mercury Mariner he is believed to be driving has a license plate of 6CJU602.

People who encounter Wu are urged to keep their distance and call Santa Clara police immediately at (408) 615-4700. If Wu is in another city, witnesses should call 911 to reach that city's police department.

187   PermaRenter   2008 Nov 15, 3:38am  

Most of the links are not functional

http://www.siport.com/

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