patrick.net

TOB,

Cr*p, I did not see that before I posted, and I 'm not just saying that, or being a Douche Bag :-). Anyway, some minds do think alike.

Re: Google

Someone would have to tell me, but at a distance, especially Sergey seems like a rather big douche to me, but of course I could be wrong.

There is no way that company the size of Google does not have a large collection of douche bags, and I am not just talking about the shower rack at the Marissa Mayer penthouse here.

A bit off topic, but I could not resist. I wonder how many Latinos are going to choking their purple headed Bishops when they see this.

From the Pluck It Like a Money Chicken files comes 2608 McGee Avenue, Berkeley, CA.
Sold in 1988 for $50,000.
Refinanced in 2003 for $320,000.
Refinanced in 2006 for $630,000 ($560k first, $70k second, both variable interest).
Taken back by the bank for $395,250. Currently for sale at $389,900.

TOB,

I wish that would always work. What if there were no women in the first place?

What's now happening in the best neighborhoods of the city-

http://tinyurl.com/58tno6

TOB,

As has been mentioned in further comments; the hallmark of a douchebag is indeed that they they *think* they are a rockstar! This is the essence of the douche. It has even been studied, as I've alluded previously:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning-Kruger_effect

In fact, if you want to determine who's who in an org, just show them my list and ask where they fit in.

If they immediately self-identify as a rock star; consider that the flag o'bag. They get a bonus point for negatively labeling their peers without being asked.

If they schedule a meeting to discuss it further or ask you to put the list in a spreadsheet, print it and fax it to their secretary; dead wood.

If they are either two busy to talk to you; or dismiss the list as a crass oversimplification and then sketch out an optimized version in UML on their whiteboard with personality traits weighted by the relevant DSM-IV... well there is your star.

I'll add that many highly successful people are an amalgam of douchebag/rockstar. Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, the list goes on.

Frank,

I would say Dubya is a pretty good mix of Dead Wood/Douche Bag and a Rock Star at dodging flying shoes. Seriously, the boy is pretty 'effin quick and I would definitely pick him over Cheney in a good ole' fashion shoe fight.

*Delurking*

Hey all, glad to see everyone still kicking and in overall decent spirits.

Justme,

RE Microsoft acquisition of yahoo search.

On the whole, a very valuable asset. On the business side, what they are after is search market share. They are getting that through yahoo's "installed" base of users, all the eyeballs that they drive through their various online properties. This market share is probably what is really coveted, as significant barriers exist to grabbing share through alternative channels in current environment. Indeed, most of their expensive efforts have fallen flat in this regard.

Greater market share means possible critical mass and greater pricing power and market control. Their sales team will also have an easier time pulling greater share of major agency ad monies.

My guess other assets are likely secondary, including intellectual property associated with search algorithms and back end processes.

On technology side, I suspect they will forklift out yahoo's analytics and back end eventually, replacing with their superior solution in that area. Migration to occur at all deliberate speed but possibly taking significant time. Probably much of their iron will be redundant and handled as such.

I cannot imagine that they would actually just redirect that traffic to their own search infrastructure. Many risks associated with user change. But doing so would be relatively trivial.

Many scenarios are possible on how to handle the overall migration, much analysis will take place. All problems that are solvable technically, what microsoft is really buying is the market share and real estate.

NVR,

I think you're right that it does not make sense to redirect from the yahoo home page, at least not at first. Users are fickle and would quickly switch to google or elsewhere if the yahoo home page stops being an integrated one-stop-shopping site.

But I would bet that MSFT would try, eventually and gradually, to lure people across to their own site. They would have to be VERY careful not to drop eyeballs in the process.

Personally I dislike MSN because it is much too gaudy + transient, and the content too bubble-gum fluffy for my taste. I would not be surprised that is the main reasons people prefer Google and Yahoo overall.

>> Yahoo is a place full of douche bags, that I know pretty well. I have had quite a few dead wood acquaintances who churned through the revolving door, claiming that even the rock star wannabe cannot stand it.

I agree. I joined Yahoo Platform Engineering on first working day of 2006. I left after five months -- can not imagine working there again.

"Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 625,000."

WOW. Talk about falling off the cliff.

http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf

Who else is suprised at how well prices are holding up in core BA areas? Outlying areas have had massive capitulation - as low as $150/sq ft on new construction in Gilroy. But prices in and around the Penninsula are still 7 figures at > $600 sq/ft. The delfation CPI and job reports is just not creating any sense of urgency for sales. Only thing that makes sense to me is the homes listed are of the retiring work force who need/demand the old prices to fund their sun birding?

Justme,

By redirect I meant whose back end actually service and serve search results back to originating page. So you enter a search term in a box, well whose engine, whose algorithms, whose indexes, whose crawlers, ect would actually be servicing the search.

I don't suspect Microsoft will ever actually execute a full page high jacking, little to gain and much to lose there.

Excellent point relative to simplicity and user experience. I suspect that is one of my emotional buying triggers in using Google. Of course, I would like to think it is expediency and relevancy of returned results, but I do like goggles’ logo and simplicity as well.

Who else is surprised at how well prices are holding up in core BA areas?
I hear ya Duke. These folks are not going to be leaving quietly as there is real cash invested (in many cases). A combination of marginal players (sincere folks who stretched so as not to be "priced out forever") and high-end "homesitter/speculators" (think $250k tax free) are eventually going to be driven from their abodes by the recasts. Over 70% of Bay Area homebuyers in 2005 used option or IO ARMs. Throw some job losses into the mix and eventually even the retirees will capitulate when it is clear the direction the market is taking...

We are now in the 0.0% to 0.25% range for the FED rate. I wonder how long it took Japan to figure out that a ZIRP was not working.

Jobs, comrades, it is all about jobs.

I have argued here many times for fortresses to cave in big time, you need massive job cuts. This is not happening just yet. The job cuts so far are on the peripheral.

Want to see Palo Alto half price off? Google layoff will do it. Cupertino half off? Apple layoff will seal it. I am not saying all these people living in such areas work at Google and Apple, but that will have a huge psychological impact on buyers and sellers. And I am not talking about contractor layoff, I am talking about at least 10% perm getting the pink slip at GOOG or AAPL.

OO,

The only thing I would be worried about in that regard is that laid-off googlers would suddenly decide that investing in real estate would be a nice hobby. Flashbacks of the dot.com bust flicker before my eyes.

justme,

googlers are not that rich. Most of them are not. Look at the stock price and you can figure out whoever joined after late 05 are having their options under water, and there is a lock-up vesting period, so they cannot possibly cash all out at the top. Most importantly, post IPO, GOOG gives out very few options upon joining, basically you cannot become a millionaire from stock options. GOOG doesn't pay that well either, it pays below the market because of the brand name.

Those early Googlers who can afford a home have all bought a house. They won't suddenly go out to buy a second house.

Btw, USD crashes across the board today. Very nice.

EB and OO,
I think you both hit it right on the head.
My wife and I have been sniffing around the Santa Cruz County housing market as first time buyers. Places like Aptos, Capitola, Santa Cruz, Scotts Valley and Soquel have had horribly sticky pricing... even with increasing foreclosures. Watsonville and the San Lorenzo Valley have been getting hammered, but both are fairly undesirable from a first-time buyer perspective. The former places all are much more attractive and have the farthest to go.

What we have seen is realtor foreclosure "specialists" pricing homes out of first-time buyer reach or the smart ones pricing it so low (still not low enough) that they cause a bidding war to break out. The bottom line is that we can still rent a VERY nice house at a rate that is about 1/2 of what the home prices should be. The foreclosed homes priced near (not really that close yet) a decent break-even level to us are complete pieces of shit. Over $50k in repairs to make them liveable. Excuse me, but unless I am batshit insane, there is no way I am going to stretch beyond my rent to drop another $50k in repairs to pay property taxes and further upkeep costs on a pile of crap.

All of the retiring boomer sellers are holding their prices or offer decreases just above the real selling prices. Their realtors (along with the greedy ass mortgage brokers) have convinced them and themselves that now is the best time to buy EVER. Then I watch month after month as they drop another $20-50k and pray some fool is out there with cash.

I don't know what is in everyone elses starbucks every morning, but there are only two ways housing prices are going back up until a normal first-time buyer (like myself) can afford a house. (BTW, an affordable house for me is about $300-330k and the decent houses are still double that in most places).
1) Wages Increase - that is a long, long, long ways away. We have nothing but job losses and pay decreases and wage stagnation for a long long time. Deflation at its best.
2) The Availability of Cheap Easy Credit - This is still around kinda. I can still buy a house with 3% down through the FHA program and those kind of mortgages are part of the price-sticking problem. I could buy a $450k house right this second, but I know better. However, the ARM's and no-doc loans have gone the way of the dinosaur for this generation. That kind of crap is like the 9/11 hijackings... it only works once, but once the trick is known no one is going to let it happen again. It took us over 70 years since the great depression to fool ourselves into that crap again, but I will be dead in the next 70 years.

So anyone that has been trying to tell me that house prices are great right now I tell explain the above two items. Hard to argue that either of those facts of reality are anywhere near the horizon... even realtors and mortgage brokers have been stunned speechless. The only line I ever get from them is "Yeah, but this area is different." It won't be that different from everywhere else when the google millionaires and sillicon valley money is gone. Every person buying a house now is one more person out of the way so that the prices can get to where they are heading anyway.

Btw, USD crashes across the board today

Yep, and the DOW shot up over 300 pts. Rate cuts and other little triggers have caused such swings several times before, only to give back the gains over the following few days.

Rate cuts does nothing to the stock market, but Fed will make sure USD crashes against everything else so that we can pay back our debt easier.

Trade with the Fed, I am all for trashing the USD. Let's go baby.

BTW, when are they going to roll out the 4.5% refinance? I am actually loving this depression or whateversion, free lunches everywhere. I hope we are all going to get some nice rebate check in a couple of months or so, after all, we need to be stimulated too.

Rate cuts does nothing to the stock market

Now that is a puzzling statement, considering past responses to rate cuts along with what happened today:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/16/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm

damenace,

The market hasn't capitulated yet.

It will, trust me. The Alt-A/Neg-am timebomb will do that nicely.

Btw, USD crashes across the board today
FWIW, I am putting in stops on my PM holdings as they go positive. Next cycle down and I am out.

I am so angry now about the ZIRP that the FED is going to use. I hope OPEC stops taking our dollars for oil. They are so foolish to not have switched to something more tangible by now.

EBGuy,

you have to hang on till Benny Boy does his "putting an explicit ceiling on US long-term Treasury yield".

I am not going to miss his action on raw print on massive scale, gotta take a good seat to watch that up close and personal.

EBGuy,

Looks like you see a reprieve and are going to take it! I agree.

OO seems certain the the gov can out-print the de-leveraging.

Time will tell.

I hope OPEC stops taking our dollars for oil.

That might have an adverse effect on demand from thier biggest consumer. A switch to Euro would inflate the Euro vs the Dollar, and the resulting higher USA oil price would cause American consumers to cut back. That cutback would put seroius downward pressure on world oil prices, as seen before when USA demand for oil falls. I have read that oil prices below $30/bbl would put serious economic and political hardship on Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Russia.

Want regime change in Iran? Don't invade, just do everything possible to knock oil down to $25/bbl. And if oil prices do fall that much, I hope we put a high enough tax on it to keep demand low, and have the tax money for US coffers rather than extra profit for theocracies and short dictators.

I am so angry now about the ZIRP that the FED is going to use.

We effectively were at zero interest for weeks now, the 30 year UST yield is probably lower than it ever was, Obama is planning a quadrillion dollar spending spree and the Fed reiterated it buy everything and anything.

Well if that is not paramount to having shot their load, I can't imagine what could be.

>> GOOG gives out very few options upon joining, basically you cannot become a millionaire from stock options. GOOG doesn’t pay that well either

All you have GOOG name to become GOOF Director in some junky startup ...

¡Ay, caramba! In a year when Wall Street imploded, the Big Three automakers neared collapse, and the economy plunged into its worst downturn in at least a generation, finding business and economy "leaders" who messed up badly isn't too hard. But these 10 might well be the worst of the worst.

1) Bernard Madoff. If the federal government's accusations prove correct, Madoff also belongs on a list of America's most active and energetic senior citizens. The 70-year-old money manager was arrested by the FBI for allegedly running the largest Ponzi scheme this side of Social Security, losing an estimated $50 billion in client money. Investigators say Madoff told them that his business was just "one big lie." Terrible news for numerous wealthy individuals, banks, and charitable foundations. A perfect way to cap off a perfectly terrible year on Wall Street.
2) The bailout trio. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner decided to let Lehman Brothers fail in September, triggering a global collapse of financial confidence, as well as wrecking the money and commercial paper markets. The move also led to massive hedge fund redemptions, which forced them to liquidate stocks. And don't forget the ever evolving $700 billion Paulson plan to bail out the banks. Buying assets one day, injecting capital the next. And the crisis rolls on ....

3) Alan Greenspan. Now when people call Greenspan "the Maestro," it's with more than a hint of sarcasm. Many economists and financial analysts give the former Federal Reserve chairman a large share of the blame for the current financial crisis by keeping interest rates too low for too long during the first part of this decade. They also say the Ayn Rand disciple shirked his responsibility to ensure the safety and soundness of the financial system by resisting calls for tighter regulation of risky bank lending.

4) Angelo Mozilo. The nattily dressed former CEO of Countrywide Financial has become the tanned face of the subprime mortgage meltdown. Mozilo built Countrywide into the nation's largest mortgage lender and enriched himself to the tune of more than $400 million in the process. But as it turns out, lots of those borrowers should have stayed renters. Not that it mattered to Countrywide, since it could sell those soon-to-be-toxic mortgages to Wall Street and beyond.

5) Robert Rubin. It has been a bad run for the heroes of the 1990s boom. Now it's Rubin's turn for criticism, thanks to the unfolding financial disaster that is Citigroup. It looks as if all the company got from Rubin for some $115 million was a strategy for taking on heaps more risk in the collapsing debt markets. The former treasury secretary probably doesn't have to worry about deciding whether to give up his fat private-sector compensation package if eventually nominated by Barack Obama to be the next Fed chair. Doesn't look as if that call will be coming.

6) Richard Fuld. Not only did CEO Fuld watch Lehman Brothers, the 158-year-old investment bank, go down the tubes, but he reportedly got punched in the face in the company gym and was viciously mocked on Saturday Night Live. Under Fuld, Lehman became the single biggest Wall Street underwriter of mortgage debt right into the teeth of the mortgage debt collapse. But in the end, there was no lifeline from Uncle Sam. That was the knockout blow and worse than a punch in the kisser.

7) Barney Frank. This is a quote, from 2003, that the Massachusetts Democrat would like to have back: "These two entities—Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—are not facing any kind of financial crisis. The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.'' Turns out that the two government-sponsored entities were walking farther and farther out onto thin financial ice. And as late as last year, Frank wanted Fannie and Freddie to take on even more subprime risk. Washington and Wall Street have to share the blame for the financial crisis.

8) John McCain. At times during the presidential campaign, it seemed as if McCain was going out of his way to prove to voters that he really meant it when he said he didn't understand economics too well. He constantly misspoke about the details of his healthcare plan, let Barack Obama steal the tax-cut issue, and talked more passionately about earmarks than about dealing with the imploding housing market.

9) Barack Obama. If there is one piece of policy advice that economists agree on, it is this: You don't raise taxes during an economic downturn. Doing so would be right out of the Great Depression playbook. Yet even as the economy obviously weakened in the latter half of the year, Obama stuck to his campaign pledge to reverse the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts on income and capital gains for wealthier Americans. Indeed, Obama's transition website still holds out that possibility. And while there are signs that he might instead let the tax cuts expire at the end of 2010, that is not for sure yet.

10) Big Three CEOs and unions. It takes a special kind of incompetence to completely drain away the goodwill of a car-crazy nation like America. Yet polls show that most Americans don't want to bail out the automakers. As with the credit crisis, there is plenty of blame to go around, from poorly designed cars to fat union benefits and complicated work rules. Bottom line: Thousands of workers seem destined for the unemployment line.

This also marks the beginning of America's own decade-long stagnation. We have become Japan, without the cherry blossoms.

Also without the high speed trains.

Also with fat lazy people ...

http://trains4america.wordpress.com/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MbqktCxYl4&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YiUexmgTC0&feature=channel

The video of our lives-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qb5Ii0iIcXo