patrick.net

All in all though, I don't think environmental events like this affect climatic desireability.

Some people will be scared off, for sure, but others will take their place. People will avoid specific properties due to specific problems (we looked at a house in Berkeley, a half mile from the fault line, that seemed to be clinging for dear life to the side of the hill. My wife overruled my sense of adventure).

Earthquakes haven't kept people out of the Bay Area. I know people in New England who wouldn't ever move here, and I know people here who would never move to New England. (They have BLIZZARDS there?!?!). Cf hurricanes, tornadoes, volcanoes, tsunami, floods, etc. People are adaptable, though the folks in Pompeii might have (had) different thoughts (however briefly).

...with all that said, though...

I don't think an increasingly volatile climate will be good for the economy. If there's serious damage in NOLA tomorrow, it could be catastrophic for the region and for insurance companies. That part of the country is very very poor. A half million poor, displaced people would be difficult to absorb. There were 9 deaths and up to $2B of property damage from the Cat1 Katrina last week. We've been talking about trigger events, tipping points, etc. I hope for everyone's sake that Katrina isn't one.

I don’t think an increasingly volatile climate will be good for the economy. If there’s serious damage in NOLA tomorrow, it could be catastrophic for the region and for insurance companies...We’ve been talking about trigger events, tipping points, etc. I hope for everyone’s sake that Katrina isn’t one.

quesera,
Oil futures have already moved above $70/barrel. When (sadly it's not "if" anymore) the NOLA-gulf oil terminal is knocked out of action, this could have very grave consequences for the economy indeed.

When it comes to location in regard to natural/environmental factors it comes down to avoiding the obvious ones and trying the plan for the rest. There is no way I would buy on the Florida coast, I just don't see the logic in buying when you know the area gets hit by hurricanes. And why on earth would someone buy in a place called 'tornado alley?' I'm also not likely to ever buy a house built on stilts, I would constantly live in fear and who needs that drain on one's nerves?

California is funny though. We all know there are faults running across the whole state, not to mention it's mostly flood plain, but we live here anyway. I think the weather is a big factor in why a lot of us stay, though the heat in Sac makes this area less desireable than the BA and L.A for that reason. But I've lived in the Sac region for 20 years with very good luck and I hope it will continue to hold. And frankly, I'd rather risk the odd earthquake that hits every decade or so over hurricanes and tornado's that are a yearly occurrence.

And frankly, I’d rather risk the odd earthquake that hits every decade or so over hurricanes and tornado’s that are a yearly occurrence.

I thought Sacto is seismically stable (relatively speaking)...

I thought Sacto is seismically stable (relatively speaking)…

So far it has been extremely stable. *knocking wood furiously*
I was speaking in general terms of living in Ca.

I've already posted this in other active threads, but I think it bears repeating here:

The improvement on the quality of posts and volume of participation post-MP has exceeded my expectations. If I had known the impact would be this great, I would have banned him a long time ago –even without a vote.

@HARM: All speculation, of course, but if the gulf bay oil rigs are down for a couple months at the peak of the consumption season...and prices go up...and people stop spending...
Well, look out. : )

@SactoQT: but remember that severe hurricanes used to come once a decade too. Tornadoes are more common, but they affect such a small area that they are easy to overlook if you've grown up with them... I think the unfamiliar natural disasters always seem scarier...I'm guessing you're a west coast girl?

But I agree -- if this weather pattern continues, lots of people will be scared away from the gulf coast. I'm sure there would be people moving in to replace them (some people really do like Florida weather!), but it might drive prices down.

May we live in interesting times.

May we live in interesting times.

Well, the next thread basically discusses whether Mr. L is going to live in interesting times. ;)

@SactoQT: but remember that severe hurricanes used to come once a decade too. Tornadoes are more common, but they affect such a small area that they are easy to overlook if you’ve grown up with them… I think the unfamiliar natural disasters always seem scarier…I’m guessing you’re a west coast girl?

Definitely a west coaster. I have family that live in Oklahoma and Missouri and they are more sanguine about tornadoes and scared to death of earthquakes. Familiarity is certainly key when it comes to disasters of choice. :)

Hurricane Katrina has been downgraded (for the moment) to a category 4 hurricane, but they say that's only a 5mph difference in wind speed, so it's still going to be very ugly when it hits. I feel very bad for residents of NO right now.

But I agree — if this weather pattern continues, lots of people will be scared away from the gulf coast. I’m sure there would be people moving in to replace them (some people really do like Florida weather!), but it might drive prices down.

It would be amazing to me if the gulf coast becomes known for getting hit by hurricane's every year and yet people continue to buy and live there. Don't get it, never will.

May we live in interesting times.

Well, the next thread basically discusses whether Mr. L is going to live in interesting times.

This just in...

David Lereah has denounced all U.S. weathermen for claiming that Hurricane Katrina could reach New Orleans. He characterized anyone predicting widespread flooding as "Unsophisticated, the type of people who live in bunkers and wear tinfoil hats." He is recommending that everyone on Bourbon Street return to "partying as usual" and pay no attention to calls for evacuation.

This just in...

David Lereah has just been designated as a Category 5 liar by the National Weather Service.

@SactoQT: It would be amazing to me if the gulf coast becomes known for getting hit by hurricane’s every year and yet people continue to buy and live there. Don’t get it, never will.

I didn't mean to imply that they were bright people. :-)

The locals are already famous for building trailer parks in hurricane paths. I have a relative who bought a double-wide in northern FL last year, and before she moved down (fortunately), it was totalled in one of the hurricanes (or the combination of two of them...not sure). She got it replaced and a new one delivered to the same pad just a few months ago. She's now living down there and watching the season develop.

She (we) used to live in Rhode Island, where you grow to expect a certain amount of weather-related property destruction. Farsighted people bought big lots on the ocean and set their house a couple hundred yards back from the beach, planning to lose a few inches per year, or a foot or two in a really big storm. I watched a neighbor jack up his house and move it back 75 feet after hurricane Gloria (1992?). After hurricane Carol in the 50's, one whole row of houses on the side of a road was condemned. A few months later, they were torn down and the other side of the road became beachfront property. The remaining homeowners pushed for a tax-funded breakwater. Life goes on.

David Lereah has denounced all U.S. weathermen for claiming that Hurricane Katrina could reach New Orleans.

Lereah is starting to sound a lot like the "Iraqi Information Minister".
But--no joke about Katrina--it looks like a bad one; I wish them well.

RE familiarity with natural disasters, it's so true that what you grow up with seems like no big deal. I talk to people who've never lived in CA, and they think earthquakes are the scariest possible natural disaster. I grew up in tornado country and hardly see what the big deal is--just don't buy a trailer there. :-) Better yet, buy a brick house. They have a really narrow path of destruction, and most places in tornado prone areas have basements where you can go for protection when one comes along.

Despite the hurricane threats, I do have FL (inland a bit, protected a little from the storms, and not in a flood plain) on my list of potential places to move, because year-round tropical weather is such a big lure. Same with CA--lots of problems, natural and otherwise, but the natural beauty and the weather are huge pluses.

We do take into consideration natural disaster issues when trying to decide where we'd like to live, but job considerations and proximity to family will probably outweigh all else.

Was just listening to a report on CNN about people who live in Louisiana preparing for the hurricane, and it reminded me of probably the most unpredictable reason people live in places subject to many natural disasters: love of that place. It's just like loving a person--it's often to our own great personal and financial peril, but that doesn't stop us. And it often seems illogical to people looking at it from the outside. I guess this goes back to Jack's intangibles argument. :-)

@Jamie,

You may have a point here. Given that most of the city is 6 feet below sea level in an area prone to frequent flooding & storms, the fact you can get ANYONE to live there is testament to the Big Easy's powerful draw as a national cultural/tourist mecca. Even so, love (and easy credit) eventually has its limits.

So far the levee is holding. Thank goodness. If they make it another 24 hours, I'll bet NOLA will come back with a vengeance. Until next time.

The mayor called it a "once-in-a-lifetime" storm. Maybe.

Basically they're saying the storm took a left turn and lost some of its power. I'm glad NO seems to be in better shape than expected and hopefully the damage to the oil pipelines is not as severe as predicted.

The mayor called it a “once-in-a-lifetime” storm. Maybe.

It may well be for a lot of the folks there. According to the demographics 2000 census), a good deal of the population (42%) are between 25 and 54. So that means that the 25-36 crowd weren't even born yet when Camille (1969) came barreling through.

http://neworleans.areaconnect.com/statistics.htm

BayQT~

So that means that the 25-36 crowd weren’t even born yet when Camille (1969) came barreling through.

Definitely. But if volatile weather has become the norm for the gulf coast, the next one might not wait so long.

@Veritas: I haven't lived there, but do you really think they could rebuild the quarter and still have it be the heart of the city? Certainly it's the tourism center, and with the CBD it's the economic center.. But if the quarter was swamped, drained, and rebuilt...would it have the same magnetism?

Actually I heard wrong. The storm took a right turn and hammered Mississippi. Hopefully they'll end up ok too.

Something I read in Yahoo news:

Muddy six-foot waves crashed into the eastern shore of Mobile Bay, flooding stately, antebellum mansions and littering them with oak branches.

"There are lots of homes through here worth a million dollars. At least they were yesterday," said a shirtless Fred Wright. "I've been here 25 years, and this is the worst I've ever seen the water."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/hurricane_katrina

And so far, 55 people have been killed. :-(

BayQT~

@Veritas: However to me, and so many of us that lived there, the French Quarter IS New Orleans, and the rest is just the suburbs.

I've only visited, but I agree. While there are other nice parts of town, and some beautiful architecture throughout (and revitalization in some neighborhoods, lots of blight too), it's all about the Quarter. No American city compares.

I wonder how they would handle it if large parts of the vieux carré (or any important historic district in any city...Savannah, Charleston, etc) had to be rebuilt. I imagine there would be emergency codes passed, but would a "reproduction" historic district pass muster?

Fortunately, we don't have to find out yet. 55 people dead (most of them in Biloxi, I think) is tragic, but it could have been so much worse.

I rode out hurricane Georges in Biloxi, in a hotel on the beach with no power. I made toast and coffee on my camp stove for the three other people staying in the hotel, plus the hotel staff and a CNN crew. I was surprised and a little annoyed that they charged me full rate for the days without power. :-)

On the plus side, they’ll be able to bull doze down those slums and build some decent housing for the working class folks.

Unfortunately, many of the swamped neighborhoods were badly blighted, that's true. But it's a shame that all of the careful renovation work will probably have to be bulldozed too.

Even with a huge influx of insurance money, it will be too expensive to rebuild with any pretense of historical respect. It's a developer's opportunity -- buy up adjacent lots with condemned properties, build McCondos and bank on others to do the same, totally changing the character of the neighborhoods. Profit. The city will have to get some emergency legislation enacted to mandate construction of affordable housing, but the charms of the hoods will probably be lost, regardless.

The city will probably be one of the bigger buyers. They should use this as a chance to fix some big problems.

Sadly, the current report is that the French Quarter is now flooding because of a levee break. The Gov of Lousiana wants to evacuate EVERYONE. Plus, as you may have noticed, there haven't been reports of the number of dead in the New Orleans area....per the attached article, it's because they are busy rescuing the folks stranded on roofs, attics, in the water, etc....they are pushing aside the bodies of the dead to rescue the living.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,167781,00.html

BayQT~

I am worried about New Orleans. The Pontrachain levee broke and is flooding the city. Will the French Quarter survive?

I only had one chance to visit there, for a week before and a week after Mardi Gras. I stayed with a friend in college. What a great place.

I just saw some news coverage of the flooding in Louisiana and Mississippia and it is ugly. A cop was shot by some looters in New Orleans and everyone else is just frantic and upset. I just seems to shallow to worry about oil prices when people are suffering like that. It all makes me very sad.

I also got to visit New Orleans only once. The wife and I spent a few days there in the French Quarter & Garden District during Christmas, 2002. Veritas is right --it definitely has a mystique and flavor like no other city in America.

And now it looks like most of it's gone. Tragic --a huge cultural loss. I'm still holding out hope that most of the French Quarter (which is on higher ground than the rest of the city) will survive. We shall see...

Last I heard on the news last night the Superdome was being evacuated. I don't know what the government is doing at this point other than the Navy is in the area at the moment helping with the rescue effort. But the area's are so overwhelmed that I'm not sure how much they can do. They also showed on the news a prison they were trying to evacuate. The prisoners were in the cells with water literally up to their chests as they were trying to get them out. As far as I know they were able to evacuate everyone, but you can imagine how difficult the rescue is when so many need rescuing.

Paul_from_Oz,

Yes, it seems New Orleans is becoming our Venice, as sea levels rise (thanks to all the nonexistent global warming), I would hope former residents and politicians alike thing long and hard about that before reflexively rebuilding in exactly the same spots. The non-historic neighborhoods (where the majority of NO residents live and work) can and should be moved IMHO. Not sure if this is politically acceptable though.

I do not, however, think relocation will be possible for the historic French Quarter, Garden District, etc. It would cost an impractically large fortune to tear down and move that many buildings. Plus, once you've removed the buildings from their original environs, you lose a lot of that "mystique" and history. Maybe they could just build high permanent levies around those two areas and move everyone else.

Veritas or other current/former residents have any opinions on this?

For NOLA, the priotiy should be given to the people. The city can be rebuilt. People may be gone forever if they are not rescued in time.

I'm kind of surprised this thread is not seeing more comments given Katrina and her effect. I've been watching coverage and it is certainly relevant to our discussions. The gulf coast has just been devestated and since coastal communities have seen the largest rise in home values, it really makes you stop and think.
I really love the ocean, always have. But ever since I was a kid I've seen areas like Malibu and other really nice areas get hit again and agian by storms that wipe out neighborhoods. But to see a storm destroy several cities is unbelievable. NO looks like Thailand after the tsunami. Thank God the U.S. will have the capacity to get help sooner than aid was able to get to the tsunami zone. My brother is now living in Thailand, he moved there after the tsunami because he always loved it there and wanted to go back and help rebuild. It was so sad though, everyone he knew on phuket island was killed. Fortunately some of his friends in N. Thailand survived. But knowing people who were killed in a natural disaster really helps put a human face on it. In a perfect world I would live on the beach, but in the real world a home with an ocean view will probably not be in my future. At least I'll sleep better at night.

I don’t know if its just being short sighted for so many people, or if the draw of living on the water is so great, that it casts care aside.

I get the lure, I've loved the ocean my whole life. There is a powerful attraction to being able to hear the ocean and sit in the sand or go surfing whenever the mood hits. But as I get older the risks seem too apparent and I just can't see risking my house, and as is the case in NO, my life on having a home on the coast. I really feel for the people in NO though. I lot of people in the region are very poor, and now they don't even have what meager possessions they had managed to accumulate. It also breaks my heart to see the children.

I agree, it is so relevant to what is happening in the housing market. This indeed puts a new face on the value of waterfront property.

I still want water-view property. However, I would prefer one that is at least 100 ft above sea level.

May the looters in NOLA live in interesting times! It is understandable if they are just getting food and water so that their families can survive. No... they are greedy and are taking advantage of a tragedy!

May the looters in NOLA live in interesting times! It is understandable if they are just getting food and water so that their families can survive. No… they are greedy and are taking advantage of a tragedy!

Probably a mixture of the two with the latter being the more common. Let's hear it for Karma.

More on the topic of the greedy taking advantage of a tragedy. It's gotten so bad that rescue helicopters are being fired upon and they are unable to get to those in need because some areas are too dangerous. At one hospital the staff has had to move to upper levels and barricade themselves in due to looters in the lower floors of the building. There are real people in need but there is an amazing number of people who are getting off on the anarchy. But you just know that if martial law is instituted and they start shooting back at these assholes some civil rights attorney is going to start bleating about their 'rights' and start making noises about racism etc. Pisses me off.

Friends,

I haven't been participating that much lately because I am concerned for a friend and his family in New Orleans. If any of you (or the lurkers) know Robert L. Warner Jr, sisters Helen and Sabrina or other members of their family, please post here for me or on any new topic. I check here regularly, and am checking all the lists that have been posted over the internet. If you'd rather not give me the information here, just let me know and we can communicate off this site.

Thanks all,

BayQT~ (I am posting this on our current topic as well.)

Veritas

WOW. I hope they're all ok. I'm glad they took what measures they needed to get out safely, at this point anything goes.

Veritas

It's great that you're thinking of helping. Most of us are only able to donate, so I think it's wonderful when people actually are able to physically lend a hand. My brother is actually living in Thailand now helping with the rebuilding effort and he couldn't be happier.