patrick.net

I have a much easier portfolio. It didn't need re-balance or anything. It is also easy to do a back test.

1 Apple Stock - 100%

If you go to China, everyone is talking about buying an iphone.
You don't hear them talk about buying gold or oil :)

xenogear3 says

If you go to China, everyone is talking about buying an iphone.
You don’t hear them talk about buying gold or oil

Whew! I almost posted a serious reply to you until I re-read this part. Chinese people not talking about gold or oil...hahaha!

To answer the forum question, however:

Any paper assets are likely to be very unsafe for the near future. We are probably going to experience a second leg of depression, and that means losses in stocks and defaults on loans. Since governments are going bankrupt, that means an additional risk for paper currency as well. I expect flight of capital to go something like this: Derivatives -> stocks -> bonds -> cash -> gold & silver -> commodities & real estate.

Short term - gold & silver, energy, agriculture. Basically, hard money plus commodities with relatively inelastic demand. Once stocks have crashed, moving some more money into the domestic markets makes some sense. Don't bother with bonds until interest rates are high and governments are solvent again. (Right now, the opposite is true, which means bond values can only go one direction: down.) But because we are entering an era of resource scarcity (declining production and increasing demand) it would be wise to avoid significant %age of either until the scarcity issues are resolved. Because of this, I recommend you also consider self-sufficiency: own rental real-estate, run a farm, own a business, get solar panels, get out of debt.

In short, investing is going to change from brokered, convenient, fee-based instruments to unwieldy, real ones.