patrick.net

wave9x says

Unless he was buying a house in 2010 with the intent to sell it before 2012, the advice not to buy in 2010 was dramatically and horribly wrong.

Bullshit. Buying in 2010 and selling within a year would have been the absolute stupidest thing you could do. Are you smoking crack?

You're saying that waiting until 2011 to buy would have been "dramatically and horribly wrong", yet that's exactly what you did?

Wow, you can't make this stuff up.

Figures you can't argue with, though I'm sure some will.

egads101 says

You of course miss several points:

No, I didn't miss anything. You just didn't understand me.

egads101 says

1. while the median price may have been lower, negotiating power on individual deals was better earlier.

You have nothing to back that up other than your own say-so, which is not an objective source. My experience was completely different than yours. I got outbid at least 50 times between 2009-2011, then finally had an offer accepted in early 2012 that I didn't think had a snowball's chance in hell of being accepted. It's a MUCH better house than anything in the same price range I looked at in 2009-2010. In fact, I had tried to buy a smaller house, with a smaller lot, on the same street in 2010 and they got another offer $60,000 OVER asking price.

I'm quite happy with my purchase, and I owe it to the fact that I stayed in the game and kept trying, as discouraging as it was, and I didn't panic and make a hasty decision that I would have ended up unhappy with.

egads101 says

2. risk/reward. As you can see, from how fast the market went up, the far bigger risk was missing the buying opportunity, rather than buying it for 30K too much, because it went down just a little bit more.

Eh, how much of a risk would it have been? He still would have had a year and a half to find something. The REAL problem was the permabears who were still calling a crash in 2012. As soon as you have several months of uninterrupted year-over-year increases, it's a good guess that it's time to get in. And I totally agree with you on that. Anyone who was still trying to wait it out by mid 2012, or is STILL trying to wait it out, completely missed the boat.

The guy I knew in Fremont bought his home for over 600k. Prices dropped and he couldn't refinance. He told me he couldn't refinance and had to make more money quickly to pay down his loan so that he could refinance. With all the government manipulation of interest rates, he probably refinanced this year into a 2.5 15 year fixed using Harp.

How long can the government intervention last?

egads101 says

WTF? what the hell is there to feel sorry for? Had he listened to your advice, and NOT BOUGHT a home, he might be looking to kick you repeatedly in the balls today!!!

It seems as though you are interpreting the advice given as, "NEVER buy a house". I'm not sure where you're getting that. I didn't read it that way at all. Perhaps "waiting" will clarify that for us.

Bobby is clearly off his meds again. The rants are getting more and more funny, and bizarre.

Look at how many times I post and how many times blabber mouth Bobby posts. I don't have time to spend all day on a message board ranting to buy now or be priced out forever.
Some people actually work for a living instead of lounging around all day trolling message boards.

My Fremont friend does not own a 1+ million dollar home.
This is Fremont we're talking about here, not Palo Alto. The home is worth $700k. He made 100k above what he paid and worked long hours at a part time job for several years to pay extra on his mortgage. He sacrificed time with his newborn, time he will never get back. All that work and sacrifice to buy a home. As I said before, some people think it's worth it.

Let's see how Bobby will spin this response into his bizarre fantasy land where he is always right, always the best adviser, best investor, smartest person you will ever meet, and the only person that has anything good to say, ever. We're all just jealous of him, right Bobby?

egads101 says

WTF? what the hell is there to feel sorry for? Had he listened to your advice, and NOT BOUGHT a home, he might be looking to kick you repeatedly in the balls today!!!

That's kind of hard to do since I don't have balls...

Bigsby says

Discounting the fact the Y axis is stretched, the two charts still don't look the same. The composite 10 and 20 are almost identical in your graph. That isn't the case in the other graph.

Ooh! It must be a conspiracy.

Does the chart go up or down between line A and line B?

What is your point?

"Here is a chart showing prices fell from 2010 to 2011"

"Your chart is wrong - here is the correct chart"

"But that chart ALSO shows that prices fell from 2010 to 2011"

"I wasn't arguing about that"

Y'all a bunch of trolls. Just sayin'

Homeboy says

I showed that prices fell in Fremont by 15% from 2010 to 2011, and that's
what you heard? Dude, put down the crack pipe.

Dude---it was just a joke. I think everyone understands what you are saying.

egads101 says

you don't buy a fucking chart. You buy an individual house.

Dumbest comment I've read this week.

egads101 says

THAT is how bad the banks were doing selling in 2009...

I don't give a crap what your index shows, by late 2010, I was bidding $5K over list and waiving my inspection to get my offers accepted.

Hey dumbshit - the chart says prices went UP in 2010 and then went DOWN in 2011. I said 2010 wasn't as good a year to buy. Now you just said you had to waive inspections to get an offer accepted in 2010. Thanks for proving my point! LOL!

Bigsby says

I didn't find a chart that looks slightly different. I posted up the standard graph.

What you have written is meaningless. You have no evidence to back up your contention that yours is "standard" and that mine is "non standard". I posted a chart and you posted another chart. Yours happens to be from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. If you want to be that nitpicky, here is the REAL chart:

It doesn't look like mine OR yours. In fact, yours is MORE wrong, because ONE of the lines is smooth while the other is rippled. What did you call it? "Manipulated"? But yours wasn't even "manipulated" consistently. At least the 2 lines match in contour in my chart.

But who gives a fuck? Your whole diatribe is a red herring, as ALL the charts back up my contention that prices fell from 2010 to 2011. I asked you if you agree, and you refuse to answer. You're just trolling. You picked some irrelevant nitpick to draw attention from the subject, but you aren't even right about your irrelevant nitpick. LOL.

Bigsby says

especially considering the poster you are defending was predicting substantial post 2011 price drops.

I wasn't aware that he made any such prediction. Can you link to a source, please?

egads101 says

the fuck it is... look at the graphs:

Every one of those graphs, save one, shows an upsurge in prices in 2010 that didn't last, (commonly referred to as the 'dead cat bounce') indicating that 2010 was not the best year to buy. The one exception is DC, and nobody here was talking about DC. So again, thanks for proving my point!

egads101 says

It says, to three sigma accuracy, FUCK YOU!

Shouting obscenities at me does not help your case.

egads101 says

Homeboy says

Bigsby says

especially considering the poster you are defending was predicting substantial post 2011 price drops.

I wasn't aware that he made any such prediction. Can you link to a source, please?

oh,homeboy, you mean you are too fucking stupid to read the title post on THIS THREAD?????

That's not the same person, genius. Now why don't you stop embarrassing yourself?

egads101 says

you're correct, you had to read 3 posts down... clearly too much to ask for you to do!!!!!

Um, no - I already read that post. Nowhere in that post does she "predict post 2011 price drops". Egads, I'm seriously starting to think you have some sort of learning disability in addition to your obvious emotional problems.

Feel the Love here.

Homeboy says

No, it's definitely your problem. I simply picked the first chart I found on the web that showed the index and was easy to cut and paste into the thread. To attempt to impugn the source when you agree with my conclusion is disingenuous. You're just trolling. You are arguing for the sake of argument only.

I don't agree with your point. 2010 and 2011 were both good times to buy. The small drop between the times discussed wasn't the major leg down that these people were predicting. They were still telling people that major price drops were coming in their posts of summer 2011. The original poster and those like 'waiting' who chose to support him were clearly wrong.
Homeboy says

How was she wrong? She said she advised a friend not to purchase IN 2010. As far as I am aware, she didn't say NEVER to purchase, she simply said don't do it in 2010. Considering that Egads, who is supposedly on YOUR side in this argument, just admitted he had to bid $5000 over asking and waive contingencies to get an offer accepted in 2010, the advice is looking better and better.

They weren't advising people to buy in the summer of 2011. They were still saying people should continue to wait (for the next supposed substantial leg down in prices they repeatedly claimed was coming in other posts and that obviously never materialized). 2010 in hindsight was a good time to buy. The summer of 2011 may or may not have been a better time than 2010 depending on your particular circumstances. Both offered as good or better deals compared to recent years, which is precisely the opposite of what those people were predicting, the people you have decided to defend on here.

Bigsby says

They were taking the piss out of the claims of the original poster and a few others about what was coming post summer 2011. I'm simply saying that the original poster was wrong, so why bother defending him or his supporters?

I'm not defending the original poster. I even explicitly said so. Your thinking has no nuance to it at all. There is more than "BUY GOOD. NOT BUY BAD."

Homeboy says

Bigsby says

They were taking the piss out of the claims of the original poster and a few others about what was coming post summer 2011. I'm simply saying that the original poster was wrong, so why bother defending him or his supporters?

I'm not defending the original poster. I even explicitly said so. Your thinking has no nuance to it at all. There is more than "BUY GOOD. NOT BUY BAD."

Good grief. You have got to be joking. You said they shouldn't be criticized for saying that 2010 was a poor time to buy. They didn't say to buy in 2011. What is there to support in that person's advice? If they'd said don't buy in 2010, buy in 2011 you might have a point. They didn't and you don't.

Bigsby says

Good grief. You have got to be joking.

Good grief. You have got to be joking.

Bigsby says

You said they shouldn't be criticized for saying that 2010 was a poor time to buy.

Stop lying. I said nothing about any "they". There was ONE person here who advised a friend not to buy in Fremont, CA in 2010, and I proved that prices dropped in Fremont, CA from 2010 to 2011, so 2011 WAS a better year to buy. Stop telling me what I said. Read the fucking thread, will you?

Bigsby says

If they'd said don't buy in 2010, buy in 2011 you might have a point.

No, if she said, "Don't buy in 2010, or EVER", then YOU would have a point. In 2010, we still had two years until prices started going up. TWO YEARS. That's a long time. Are you saying that "Don't buy this year" has exactly the same meaning as "Don't EVER buy"? Because I don't think it does have the same meaning.

Bigsby says

That may have been deliberate or it may have been a simple error.

That's a lie. I made no error and there was nothing misleading. Are you disputing that prices fell from 2010 to 2011?

If yes, then you are wrong.

If no, then you are a troll.

egads101 says

Homeboy, your arguments and hystronics are idiotic.

The word is histrionics, and you are not one to talk about that. I'll show you histrionics:
egads101 says

you cocksucker!

your advice sucked green donkey balls

you are a fucking moron who wouldn't know when to buy a house if Jesus, Buhda, and Einstien all poved it was the best time to buy.

no dumbshit

Nice try, dumb guck, but FAIL!

you mean you are too fucking stupid to read the title post on THIS THREAD????? *

Histrionics, indeed. Ha Ha Ha Ha!

* (BTW, after all that screaming, it turned out you were talking about the WRONG PERSON, LOL.)

Bigsby says

I'm not lying.

Yes you are.Bigsby says

They is a general reference to the people in this thread who said wait (for the predicted major leg down)

I made no general observations. I only said that the relentless lambasting of the woman who advised a friend not to buy, specifically, in Fremont, CA, in 2010, by people in this thread, for which they have shown ZERO evidence that the advice applied to any time period past 2011, was too harsh.

So yeah, you lied.

Bigsby says

And that is NOT what the person who actually posted that example was saying.

You don't know that. Did you ask? You are claiming that the advice applied to a time period well into 2012. Do you have any evidence of that? I would actually agree that it was bad advice if the advice were, "Wait until 2013 to buy". But you don't have any evidence that such advice was given. So don't lie and claim that person said something that you have no way of knowing.

Bigsby says

Were these people saying buy, buy, buy in 2011?

I don't know. Was she saying NOT to buy in 2011?

Bigsby says

It's very easy for you to turn around and say look the graph shows 2011 was a bit cheaper

Well it's also very easy for you to turn around and say look the graph shows 2013 was more expensive. So what?

Bigsby says

However you are attacking those who criticized these people's advice about waiting for the next big decline.

No I'm not. I'm not aware that she specified a particular numerical amount for the decline. Where are you getting the idea that it was in any way quantified? We do know that the person who bought the house ended up underwater, and had to find extra work to make the mortgage payments. I showed that the decline was 15% in Fremont. Were there people claiming that there would be huge price drops after 2012? Yes, I'm sure there were. Was I talking about those people? No, I was not. Just because YOU are confused about who to direct your anger at doesn't make ME wrong.

Bigsby says

Oh, how very convenient. These people were predicting massive further falls in thread after thread.

There you go again. "These people". I said nothing about any vague group of "these people". I was only talking about ONE person and the advice given to ONE OTHER PERSON in Fremont, CA.

Troll.

Bigsby says

And you appear to have got yourself a lot more worked up about it than the person who actually made the post

I dunno. You and Egads seem a lot more worked up to me. Egads is positively flipping out, and you aren't far behind. I'm just trying to answer the crazy onslaught of over-the-top rants from you guys. I will most likely stop posting the second you guys stop arguing with me. I thought I was making a pretty benign point about waiting one year to buy in 2010 maybe not having been such a bad idea. I had no idea you guys were going to go berserk and start relentlessly attacking me.

egads101 says

The example quoted is a big freaking lie: the person bought a home for $600K, in a city with a median at that time of what $400K? today that city median is $700K, and allegedly, that home is now only worth $700K????

Bobby, you are delusional and need to take your meds.
Why are you so angry? I am not the liar and troll on this board.
Everyone knows who the troll is and it isn't me.

But we're all wrong about everything and you are always right. Right, Bobby?

And we're all jealous.

All the ranting and raving only shows how crazy you are. I can't imagine anyone wanting to spend 10 minutes with you in person if this is the way you are on a message board.
Weird and crazy.

Homeboy says

Bigsby says

Oh, how very convenient. These people were predicting massive further falls in thread after thread.

There you go again. "These people". I said nothing about any vague group of "these people". I was only talking about ONE person and the advice given to ONE OTHER PERSON in Fremont, CA.

Troll.

Again, a little rich coming from you.

Bigsby says

Again, a little rich coming from you.

Wow, your childish banter is getting even worse, if that's possible. Basically the equivalent of the schoolyard taunt, "I know you are but what am I?" LOL.

Bigsby says

What do you think these people have been advising? You are making the mistake of isolating one comment and saying this is the only evidence when it quite clearly isn't

Yet another strawman. I made no such claim. I made a comment about ONE person's advice, and the board's reaction to that ONE THING. What is your major malfunction that you can't grasp that?

Bigsby says

So what? Well, maybe that 2010 was a good time to buy after all.

I didn't say 2010 wasn't good. I only said 2011 was better. I'm beginning to wonder if it's even POSSIBLE for you to type a sentence that isn't a strawman.

Homeboy says

Bigsby says

So what? Well, maybe that 2010 was a good time to buy after all.

I didn't say 2010 wasn't good. I only said 2011 was better. I'm beginning to wonder if it's even POSSIBLE for you to type a sentence that isn't a strawman.

So then 2010 wasn't a poor time to buy. Thanks for clearing that up.

Bigsby says

And I think you've rather gone overboard in your response to me.

Well, my friend. You reap what you sow. I certainly didn't ask you to jump in here and start accusing me of all kinds of things. From where I'm sitting, YOU are the one who went overboard. Also, my advice to you is to cool it on the faux outrage and acting so flustered all the time. You aren't being as level-headed as you like to imagine. There have been other threads where I have totally agreed with you. But if you attack me, I'm not going to just roll over and play dead.

Bigsby says

So then 2010 wasn't a poor time to buy. Thanks for clearing that up.

I have been nothing but clear in this entire thread. Any confusion is your own. I'm really not just saying this in a "cutting contest" way, but I seriously think you sometimes just assume what someone's position is without REALLY reading what he wrote.

Bigsby says

Homeboy says

You agreed with the observation that prices fell from 2010 to 2011, yet you say the chart was "misleading".

The actual chart shows clear, sharp, seasonal fluctuations that your graph didn't. Yours also completely omitted the substantial rises that have since occurred, so yes, I do think it was misleading.

Homeboy says

You also seem to vacillate between saying, "All I said was that the chart didn't look like the normal chart", and claiming that I'm deliberately trying to deceive. Seems like a kind of baiting game where you're trying to make me angry so you can then say, "Why are you angry? I just said the chart looked different than the normal one".

Actually, I keep bringing that up because you seem to think there was nothing wrong with your original chart. I disagree, but yes, I have no doubt made too much of an issue of that.

Homeboy says

I mean sure, bulls have the advantage that everything goes up EVENTUALLY, so if you wait enough years, you can pretend you're vindicated. But that doesn't really take any special insight, does it?

Except they did have enough conviction in their beliefs to actually risk a great deal of money (everything in the case of Egads), so there is a little more to it than a bit of bluster on a forum.

Bigsby says

Yours also completely omitted the substantial rises that have since occurred, so yes, I do think it was misleading.

I agree that WOULD be misleading if I had made any sort of claim about whether or not those rises occurred. But since that had NOTHING to do with the point I was making at the time, I just can't understand why you can't let that go. It may not have been entirely up to date. It does rise at the end, but maybe not all the way to the current month. I honestly didn't even think about that, as it had nothing to do with the point.

Let's say I'm a farmer, and I want to prove that I grow prize-winning zucchini. So I take a picture of my zucchini plants. Then let's say you find another picture of my field, and you can see that I also grow corn in the same field. Would you say I was being misleading because I didn't show the corn in my picture?

And omitting the sharp seasonal fluctuations that were occurring..?

And I'm sorry, but to me, there is also something strange in posting a graph that goes up to the beginning of 2013 but omits the major rises and actually slightly drops at the end when you are discussing whether 2010 was a good or poor time to buy. Obviously we disagree on this. Such is life.