patrick.net

It's easier to blame than to take action.

Granted a lot of us here could be accused of not taking action. But there is a difference between prudence and inaction. I don't blame anyone for the choices I have made. I am not going to rail against people who have voiced caution in this market, because lets face it, the voices of caution have been in the vast minority. Let's see, we're up to almost 70% home ownership now. It sure hasn't been the 70% that have been saying "don't buy."

In fact, blogs like this one have only recently begun to take steam. I started look for info on the housing bubble at least 2 years ago and couldn't find ANYTHING. So if someone is trying to claim that a chorus of voices told them not to buy as far back as 2-3 years ago, then I know this person is full of BS. The bubblehead crowd has only had a voice for a very short time.

Granted a lot of us here could be accused of not taking action.

We took action by resisting the urge to buy. ;) I take responsibility for my decisions to stay out of the market.

In fact, blogs like this one have only recently begun to take steam. I started look for info on the housing bubble at least 2 years ago and couldn’t find ANYTHING.

Just two years I actually thought buying using an I/O loan was a good idea. However, I cannot ascertain whether I wanted to stay in the Bay Area so I did not buy. Though. No one to blame.

The bubblehead crowd has only had a voice for a very short time.

Yes, I started posting here in around April/May this year. SactoQt, do you remember?

Peter P

You started posting a bit before I did, I also thought you were Patrick at first. :)

We also looked at buying a couple of years ago but decided that if we had to use a NAAVLP to actually get into a house, then it was to risky for us.

We could've been like all the other people who jumped in and be sitting on a nice pile of equity (on paper anyway) but the funny thing about crystal balls, they work better when looking into the past. The fact is most people just got lucky. The market could have turned at any time depending on any number of unforseen factors; but bubbles have a way of outlasting all predictions.

Really, the natural response of many homeowners is: I have been hearing it for 10 years and it did not happen.

I think the "oldest" bubblehead is the Anderson (UCLA) guy, which is taking some heat in our latest thread. :)

You started posting a bit before I did, I also thought you were Patrick at first.

My fault. I was posting as "P". Also, I am talking too much.

The market could have turned at any time depending on any number of unforseen factors; but bubbles have a way of outlasting all predictions.

Very true.

I can't believe "Phoung Nguyen" is that childish. I know it's a pseudo name, but at least, when you have problem with your own self-esteem and try to be a Vietnamese guy, please spend some efforts to make sure you do it right.

"Phoung", please don't get upset and try to blame anyone. As I've said before, I'm not trying to pick on you. Although, I kind of guess what line of work you do inside Adobe. Fortunately for you, we've now got the waterless urinals, so you don't have to work too hard cleaning them each evening anymore. Congrats.

I find it amazing that people keep bragging about how much equity they've accummulated over the recent five years. So their houses have gained 300k in average. So what? If they sold their houses and had $300k in average in return, where would they live then? All other houses have appreciated the same amount, if not more, and they'd end up paying more property tax.

Unless they move to Akarsas, Idaho, or Texas, their gains are just meaningless.

Unless you're a baggy pant wearer type of person, San Jose is probably not the right place for you to raise a family with children. The school system is terrible, and most of the neighborhoods are blue-collar. Not necessarily bad, but that's not for everybody.

I'd rather save up to live in the better parts of Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, or Mountain View. If I'm really lucky, Palo Alto (not East).

Fortunately for you, we’ve now got the waterless urinals, so you don’t have to work too hard cleaning them each evening anymore.

That is a bit harsh.

Unless you’re a baggy pant wearer type of person, San Jose is probably not the right place for you to raise a family with children.

It is good for people who like to "club". There is one in my apartment complex. I do not like to drink at all. But I will have beer with fellow bubbleheads. ;)

I’d rather save up to live in the better parts of Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, or Mountain View. If I’m really lucky, Palo Alto (not East).

No East Palo Alto? They are building a Four Seasons there. No kidding.

It appears FS loves transitional neighborhoods. First it was SOMA, now it is EPA.

Oregon. Went to an RE meeting tonight. You can pick the out o’staters w/cash out of the crowd no problem. I think things could last a bit longer up here. Ugh.

No worries. Remember Escape's mouse trap analogy? They will all pop within months of each other.

>That is a bit harsh.

Actually, I first stopped at "I kinda guess what line of work "Phoung" does inside Adobe". I went just a little bit too far and elaborate about "Phoung's" potential line of work.

"Phoung", let's shake and leave it at that. After all, I may run into you sometime. This is pointless brickering, right?

>It is good for people who like to “club”.

I loved to club! But that was five years ago. I'm approaching 30 now, and it seems I want a family more than keep taking one kamikaize shot after another. When I can buy a house and settle down here? When???

Patience is a virtue. I hope what I'm holding for, a housing value adjustment, will be rewarding.

“Phoung”, let’s shake and leave it at that. After all, I may run into you sometime. This is pointless brickering, right?

Unless you guys wear your "Patrick" name badge, running into each other or not does not matter, no? ;)

Good thing you mention. I've just made that "brightc" badge. Gotta hide it the moment I step inside the building (or going to the bathrooms with the waterless urinals)...

I think I'm going overboard again. Everyone, please ignore my last remark :-)

I’m actually an owner, just want things to chill…

Waiting for sane investment properties? ;)

My accountant is one such person. He actually told us to keep renting because of the housing bubble, although he owns quite some properties.

Good thing you mention. I’ve just made that “brightc” badge.

With Photoshop you can have whatever design you want, I guess.

BTW, how does the waterless urinal work? Does it use subspace technology to teleport urine to a deep space location?

>How do waterless urinals work?

I was thinking of saying something along the line "Geez, we've just discovered an expert about waterless urinals in this thread. Why don't you go ask him?", but that's probably too harsh for "Phoung".

At Adobe, we treat one another nicely. Therefore, I think I should bury the hachet. Starting...now! :-)

All kidding aside, you can read more about it here:

http://tinyurl.com/c5p5v

I believe Al Gore, a fervent environmentalist and "lockbox" expert, is in the board of this urinal company (besides Apple). Good for you, Al!

The 23 year old should bare NO BLAME. According to your theory, society owes you nothing and everything that happens to you is your own fault.

Oops. Gen Y.

Quit living a life of regret or you’ll be a 50 something looking forward to death before you know it.

Yes. Focus on personal development. Look forward to being 50, rich, and fabulous.

Disclaimer: 1 am 28.

Trying to compare being raped to not taking ANY personal responsibility for choices made of your own free will is ridiculous. I can't take someone seriously who thinks they can continually try to deny accountability for themselves and then try to defend it. Besides, society is not to blame for your rape scenario; the people who committed the crime are to blame. Are you suggesting that those guilty of heinous crimes go into court and plead not guilty by reason of "society made me do it?" I think you have some growing up to do.

If you are 50 something looking forward to death

Lol

You have to be awfully young if all you think you have to look forward to at 50 is death.

Just to reiterate, my 489K bid got OUTBID. I did not get the place. So no matter what people are saying, there are still multiple offers out there and I’m the main vicitim of it.

Yes, 400K over asking in Prime(tm) SF areas. Why don't you look there too. Gotta love it.

I have no doubt in my mind that you are a Cali-phonier

Ha Ha, you need to explain.

I’ll stop here… don’t want to overload your brain

Lots of people on the blog are of mixed race or fairly recent immigrants. Don't assume anyone will judge your race here because they won't.

For instance, I want to buy that damn condo. Logically, there is no way in hell that this stupid 1/1 980 sq ft condo should go for more than $100K.

If it can be rented for $1500 it can somewhat support a price of 300K, although it would still be considered very expensive cashflow-wise.

How did you come up with 100K?

BTW, how about Menlo Park and West San Mateo? They have condos too.

Palo Alt = Shallow Alto
Redwood City = deadwood shitty
Milpitas = male penis (as oppose to female penis)
San Jose = San Hoser
Sunnyvale = Scummyvale

No contest. Bay Area = Bad Area

Lots of people on the blog are of mixed race or fairly recent immigrants. Don’t assume anyone will judge your race here because they won’t.

Exactly. Illegal immigration is a whole different story. It is not about immigration. It is about selective enforcement and inequity.

I took a construction class in SJCC once and during one of the field trips to the construction site, they told me that it costs around $300K to build a million dollar home. I’d say a nice profit margin for the developer.

I was quoted 300K to build a modest 1500 sf single level house, hardly a million-dollar house. The builder said everything is 3X in Kali-thorn-ia.

Land is not exactly cheap in Silly Valley. Also, it is expensive to cut through the red tapes.

I came up with $100K because that’s how much it would cost to actually build the condo.

You think that one should be able to buy something at cost? What kind of philosophy is that?

Than you would’ve gotten taken. I acutally talked to the foreman building multi million dollar houses and he said even $300K was an overestimate.

But don't you need to hire a general contractor to overlook things?

Yes, I think they should start at break even and go from there. The society will determine how much it is eventually worth. And I am blaming the society for jacking up the price to the ludicrous level.

Well, the society does go mad once in a while. However, no business should start at break even. It does not make any sense at all.

"Phoung",

You have good info about the Bay Area. I'm a newcomer, so I'm picking up a few new things from your posts.

In your mind, where in the Bay is the ideal place for you to live? From what I've seen, the Silicon Valley is full of old, boring houses. If not for the nice weather and Adobe, I would not bite some bullets, such as the costs of living, to live here.

I also notice that you're working in a cubicle. Shouldn't everyone at Adobe have an office? Are we mistreating you? Just curious (again).

Isn't that true that the urban lifestyle makes its residents upset at more things in life? I can understand "Phoung's" frustration because I've interacted with people like him/her before, but if I were in a position to give out advices, I would tell them to relax. Life is beautiful if you can make the most out of it. Stop looking back the past and blame yourselves and society. Just pick yourself up, and look for the next opportunity. I see blaming on others, or keep oneself occupied with acerbic and bitter emotion will not help you at all, at anything.

I would not beat myself up so hard for not buying a house some years ago. I believe my next chance will come soon, because the market has got to adjust.

Also, if I were to build a house, I would oversee it myself.

How much does Adobe pay you? You time is not free, you know.

All I want to get across is that people like Patrick and everyone else that has been predicting the real estate bubble has been wrong for years. They’re starting to lose credibility.

This site is getting more traffic every day. (Are you really a realtor?)

Just look at this thread, nearly 640 comments! This is unheard of just a few months ago.

There are also countless lurkers who come here.

I’m just pissed because I’ve been listening to these idiots and hoping the prices would come down.

BTW, admitting to "listening to idiots" does not reflect well on yourself.

But if you do it yourself

I bet you are the kind of person whi write your own software for everything. Why pay Microsoft or Apple, or even Adobe?

"Phoung",

I'm not asking why you love the Bay Area. I share with you many things on that. However, since you've bashed almost (OK, all) cities that make up the Silicon Valley, I'm a little bit surprised. So, I just want to know from you, a native resident, what you think would be the desirable place in the Bay that you'd like to live in. In other words, some place that lives up to your standards.

This blog and the comments here are totally free. There are many knowledgeable people who're willing to dedicate some of their time to educate people like you and me. I think you should appreciate them for their time. You know how busy it is at work. I'm on vacation, that's why I can post this much. Otherwise, I can just read the comments (via SharpReader).

I may be a little picky on the semantics (can't get away from my job), but don't take it personal. You're posting on a public forum. If people have questions about what you write, you should be glad because they've actually read it.

“Peter”, lets not kid ourselves. We know that there are only 2 or 3 posters here (max). But lets not get into who’s telling the truth and who isn’t. That’s not important.

I have personally met Jack and Kurt. Unless you are Jack, Kurt, or my altered ego this statement is patently wrong.

Phgong Nygen, you appear to be delusional.

Dude, get real. There are at least a dozen regular posters here. If nothing else, you can tell by their writing styles.

That is why outsourcing will not affect us as people say that it will. Most top notch engineers in India, China, … all want to COME HERE eventually.

Huh? Are we relying on the "top notch" engineers to support the entire Silly housing market? Or are we replying on companies to not outsource anything?

Like all other good asian kid, growing up, I studied hard and did most things “right” and I still can’t afford a stupid condo in a city I like to call home.

It is not about justice. It is about market. However, market does like to do a bit of poetic justice from time to time. Be patient. Things that do not make sense cannot and will not go on forever.