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Social effects of the bubble


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2005 Sep 21, 3:01am   51,212 views  583 comments

by SQT15   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Per Jamie's request

What kind of social impact do you think there has been by the bubble? Are people any different because of the wealth effect? What about the social impact on people who have not bought into the RE market? Do you think what we are seeing is predictable human behavior that will occur again in the next bubble?

Is there a social impact we haven't discussed yet?

#bubbles

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381   SQT15   2005 Sep 28, 4:26pm  

Peter P

You started posting a bit before I did, I also thought you were Patrick at first. :)

We also looked at buying a couple of years ago but decided that if we had to use a NAAVLP to actually get into a house, then it was to risky for us.

We could've been like all the other people who jumped in and be sitting on a nice pile of equity (on paper anyway) but the funny thing about crystal balls, they work better when looking into the past. The fact is most people just got lucky. The market could have turned at any time depending on any number of unforseen factors; but bubbles have a way of outlasting all predictions.

382   Peter P   2005 Sep 28, 4:27pm  

Really, the natural response of many homeowners is: I have been hearing it for 10 years and it did not happen.

I think the "oldest" bubblehead is the Anderson (UCLA) guy, which is taking some heat in our latest thread. :)

383   Peter P   2005 Sep 28, 4:30pm  

You started posting a bit before I did, I also thought you were Patrick at first.

My fault. I was posting as "P". Also, I am talking too much.

The market could have turned at any time depending on any number of unforseen factors; but bubbles have a way of outlasting all predictions.

Very true.

384   brightc   2005 Sep 28, 4:30pm  

I can't believe "Phoung Nguyen" is that childish. I know it's a pseudo name, but at least, when you have problem with your own self-esteem and try to be a Vietnamese guy, please spend some efforts to make sure you do it right.

"Phoung", please don't get upset and try to blame anyone. As I've said before, I'm not trying to pick on you. Although, I kind of guess what line of work you do inside Adobe. Fortunately for you, we've now got the waterless urinals, so you don't have to work too hard cleaning them each evening anymore. Congrats.

I find it amazing that people keep bragging about how much equity they've accummulated over the recent five years. So their houses have gained 300k in average. So what? If they sold their houses and had $300k in average in return, where would they live then? All other houses have appreciated the same amount, if not more, and they'd end up paying more property tax.

Unless they move to Akarsas, Idaho, or Texas, their gains are just meaningless.

Unless you're a baggy pant wearer type of person, San Jose is probably not the right place for you to raise a family with children. The school system is terrible, and most of the neighborhoods are blue-collar. Not necessarily bad, but that's not for everybody.

I'd rather save up to live in the better parts of Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, or Mountain View. If I'm really lucky, Palo Alto (not East).

385   Peter P   2005 Sep 28, 4:33pm  

Fortunately for you, we’ve now got the waterless urinals, so you don’t have to work too hard cleaning them each evening anymore.

That is a bit harsh.

Unless you’re a baggy pant wearer type of person, San Jose is probably not the right place for you to raise a family with children.

It is good for people who like to "club". There is one in my apartment complex. I do not like to drink at all. But I will have beer with fellow bubbleheads. ;)

386   Peter P   2005 Sep 28, 4:36pm  

I’d rather save up to live in the better parts of Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, or Mountain View. If I’m really lucky, Palo Alto (not East).

No East Palo Alto? They are building a Four Seasons there. No kidding.

It appears FS loves transitional neighborhoods. First it was SOMA, now it is EPA.

387   Peter P   2005 Sep 28, 4:44pm  

Oregon. Went to an RE meeting tonight. You can pick the out o’staters w/cash out of the crowd no problem. I think things could last a bit longer up here. Ugh.

No worries. Remember Escape's mouse trap analogy? They will all pop within months of each other.

388   brightc   2005 Sep 28, 4:44pm  

>That is a bit harsh.

Actually, I first stopped at "I kinda guess what line of work "Phoung" does inside Adobe". I went just a little bit too far and elaborate about "Phoung's" potential line of work.

"Phoung", let's shake and leave it at that. After all, I may run into you sometime. This is pointless brickering, right?

>It is good for people who like to “club”.

I loved to club! But that was five years ago. I'm approaching 30 now, and it seems I want a family more than keep taking one kamikaize shot after another. When I can buy a house and settle down here? When???

Patience is a virtue. I hope what I'm holding for, a housing value adjustment, will be rewarding.

389   Peter P   2005 Sep 28, 4:48pm  

“Phoung”, let’s shake and leave it at that. After all, I may run into you sometime. This is pointless brickering, right?

Unless you guys wear your "Patrick" name badge, running into each other or not does not matter, no? ;)

390   brightc   2005 Sep 28, 4:54pm  

Good thing you mention. I've just made that "brightc" badge. Gotta hide it the moment I step inside the building (or going to the bathrooms with the waterless urinals)...

I think I'm going overboard again. Everyone, please ignore my last remark :-)

391   Peter P   2005 Sep 28, 5:08pm  

I’m actually an owner, just want things to chill…

Waiting for sane investment properties? ;)

My accountant is one such person. He actually told us to keep renting because of the housing bubble, although he owns quite some properties.

392   Peter P   2005 Sep 28, 5:10pm  

Good thing you mention. I’ve just made that “brightc” badge.

With Photoshop you can have whatever design you want, I guess.

BTW, how does the waterless urinal work? Does it use subspace technology to teleport urine to a deep space location?

393   brightc   2005 Sep 28, 5:26pm  

>How do waterless urinals work?

I was thinking of saying something along the line "Geez, we've just discovered an expert about waterless urinals in this thread. Why don't you go ask him?", but that's probably too harsh for "Phoung".

At Adobe, we treat one another nicely. Therefore, I think I should bury the hachet. Starting...now! :-)

All kidding aside, you can read more about it here:

http://tinyurl.com/c5p5v

I believe Al Gore, a fervent environmentalist and "lockbox" expert, is in the board of this urinal company (besides Apple). Good for you, Al!

394   Peter P   2005 Sep 29, 3:24am  

The 23 year old should bare NO BLAME. According to your theory, society owes you nothing and everything that happens to you is your own fault.

Oops. Gen Y.

395   Peter P   2005 Sep 29, 5:18am  

Quit living a life of regret or you’ll be a 50 something looking forward to death before you know it.

Yes. Focus on personal development. Look forward to being 50, rich, and fabulous.

396   Peter P   2005 Sep 29, 5:19am  

Disclaimer: 1 am 28.

397   SQT15   2005 Sep 29, 7:19am  

Trying to compare being raped to not taking ANY personal responsibility for choices made of your own free will is ridiculous. I can't take someone seriously who thinks they can continually try to deny accountability for themselves and then try to defend it. Besides, society is not to blame for your rape scenario; the people who committed the crime are to blame. Are you suggesting that those guilty of heinous crimes go into court and plead not guilty by reason of "society made me do it?" I think you have some growing up to do.

398   SQT15   2005 Sep 29, 8:10am  

If you are 50 something looking forward to death

Lol

You have to be awfully young if all you think you have to look forward to at 50 is death.

399   Peter P   2005 Sep 29, 11:48am  

Just to reiterate, my 489K bid got OUTBID. I did not get the place. So no matter what people are saying, there are still multiple offers out there and I’m the main vicitim of it.

Yes, 400K over asking in Prime(tm) SF areas. Why don't you look there too. Gotta love it.

400   Peter P   2005 Sep 29, 4:53pm  

I have no doubt in my mind that you are a Cali-phonier

Ha Ha, you need to explain.

401   SQT15   2005 Sep 30, 3:14am  

I’ll stop here… don’t want to overload your brain

The fact that you would still try to defend the "I am not to blame for anything" mantra that you hold so dear suggests your brain was overloaded a long time ago.

You never did answer my questions. Should those who commit heinous crimes then blame society as well? Do you think that society should also get credit when you finally do something right? And Re: the rape scenario. It isn't society that is reacting to a woman's choice to walk down a certain street-- it is the reaction of a couple of punks who do not represent society as a whole.

Also-- no one was holding a gun to your head when you bid on the condo. The fact that you put in a bid had an impact on driving the price up. Believe it or not, you impacted that situation just by getting involved, therefore you had control over the situation because you could have chosen to walk away or put in a higher bid. Your ability to afford the price does not lay on anyone's shoulders but your own.

If you continue trying to get by in life claiming no control over your situation and worse no responsibility, no one will ever respect you. I guarantee you will never be seen as a leader or someone others will look to for advice or guidance. You will be seen as someone who just gets by with as little effort as possible.

402   SQT15   2005 Sep 30, 3:17am  

Lots of people on the blog are of mixed race or fairly recent immigrants. Don't assume anyone will judge your race here because they won't.

403   Peter P   2005 Sep 30, 4:09am  

For instance, I want to buy that damn condo. Logically, there is no way in hell that this stupid 1/1 980 sq ft condo should go for more than $100K.

If it can be rented for $1500 it can somewhat support a price of 300K, although it would still be considered very expensive cashflow-wise.

How did you come up with 100K?

BTW, how about Menlo Park and West San Mateo? They have condos too.

404   Peter P   2005 Sep 30, 4:10am  

Palo Alt = Shallow Alto
Redwood City = deadwood shitty
Milpitas = male penis (as oppose to female penis)
San Jose = San Hoser
Sunnyvale = Scummyvale

No contest. Bay Area = Bad Area

405   Peter P   2005 Sep 30, 4:15am  

Lots of people on the blog are of mixed race or fairly recent immigrants. Don’t assume anyone will judge your race here because they won’t.

Exactly. Illegal immigration is a whole different story. It is not about immigration. It is about selective enforcement and inequity.

406   Peter P   2005 Sep 30, 5:20am  

I took a construction class in SJCC once and during one of the field trips to the construction site, they told me that it costs around $300K to build a million dollar home. I’d say a nice profit margin for the developer.

I was quoted 300K to build a modest 1500 sf single level house, hardly a million-dollar house. The builder said everything is 3X in Kali-thorn-ia.

Land is not exactly cheap in Silly Valley. Also, it is expensive to cut through the red tapes.

407   Peter P   2005 Sep 30, 5:26am  

I came up with $100K because that’s how much it would cost to actually build the condo.

You think that one should be able to buy something at cost? What kind of philosophy is that?

408   Peter P   2005 Sep 30, 6:07am  

Than you would’ve gotten taken. I acutally talked to the foreman building multi million dollar houses and he said even $300K was an overestimate.

But don't you need to hire a general contractor to overlook things?

Yes, I think they should start at break even and go from there. The society will determine how much it is eventually worth. And I am blaming the society for jacking up the price to the ludicrous level.

Well, the society does go mad once in a while. However, no business should start at break even. It does not make any sense at all.

409   brightc   2005 Sep 30, 6:08am  

"Phoung",

You have good info about the Bay Area. I'm a newcomer, so I'm picking up a few new things from your posts.

In your mind, where in the Bay is the ideal place for you to live? From what I've seen, the Silicon Valley is full of old, boring houses. If not for the nice weather and Adobe, I would not bite some bullets, such as the costs of living, to live here.

I also notice that you're working in a cubicle. Shouldn't everyone at Adobe have an office? Are we mistreating you? Just curious (again).

410   brightc   2005 Sep 30, 6:22am  

Isn't that true that the urban lifestyle makes its residents upset at more things in life? I can understand "Phoung's" frustration because I've interacted with people like him/her before, but if I were in a position to give out advices, I would tell them to relax. Life is beautiful if you can make the most out of it. Stop looking back the past and blame yourselves and society. Just pick yourself up, and look for the next opportunity. I see blaming on others, or keep oneself occupied with acerbic and bitter emotion will not help you at all, at anything.

I would not beat myself up so hard for not buying a house some years ago. I believe my next chance will come soon, because the market has got to adjust.

411   Peter P   2005 Sep 30, 8:19am  

Also, if I were to build a house, I would oversee it myself.

How much does Adobe pay you? You time is not free, you know.

All I want to get across is that people like Patrick and everyone else that has been predicting the real estate bubble has been wrong for years. They’re starting to lose credibility.

This site is getting more traffic every day. (Are you really a realtor?)

Just look at this thread, nearly 640 comments! This is unheard of just a few months ago.

There are also countless lurkers who come here.

412   Peter P   2005 Sep 30, 8:21am  

I’m just pissed because I’ve been listening to these idiots and hoping the prices would come down.

BTW, admitting to "listening to idiots" does not reflect well on yourself.

413   Peter P   2005 Sep 30, 8:22am  

But if you do it yourself

I bet you are the kind of person whi write your own software for everything. Why pay Microsoft or Apple, or even Adobe?

414   brightc   2005 Sep 30, 8:30am  

"Phoung",

I'm not asking why you love the Bay Area. I share with you many things on that. However, since you've bashed almost (OK, all) cities that make up the Silicon Valley, I'm a little bit surprised. So, I just want to know from you, a native resident, what you think would be the desirable place in the Bay that you'd like to live in. In other words, some place that lives up to your standards.

This blog and the comments here are totally free. There are many knowledgeable people who're willing to dedicate some of their time to educate people like you and me. I think you should appreciate them for their time. You know how busy it is at work. I'm on vacation, that's why I can post this much. Otherwise, I can just read the comments (via SharpReader).

I may be a little picky on the semantics (can't get away from my job), but don't take it personal. You're posting on a public forum. If people have questions about what you write, you should be glad because they've actually read it.

415   Peter P   2005 Sep 30, 9:48am  

“Peter”, lets not kid ourselves. We know that there are only 2 or 3 posters here (max). But lets not get into who’s telling the truth and who isn’t. That’s not important.

I have personally met Jack and Kurt. Unless you are Jack, Kurt, or my altered ego this statement is patently wrong.

416   Peter P   2005 Sep 30, 10:15am  

Phgong Nygen, you appear to be delusional.

417   Jimbo   2005 Sep 30, 4:26pm  

Dude, get real. There are at least a dozen regular posters here. If nothing else, you can tell by their writing styles.

418   Peter P   2005 Oct 1, 3:26am  

That is why outsourcing will not affect us as people say that it will. Most top notch engineers in India, China, … all want to COME HERE eventually.

Huh? Are we relying on the "top notch" engineers to support the entire Silly housing market? Or are we replying on companies to not outsource anything?

Like all other good asian kid, growing up, I studied hard and did most things “right” and I still can’t afford a stupid condo in a city I like to call home.

It is not about justice. It is about market. However, market does like to do a bit of poetic justice from time to time. Be patient. Things that do not make sense cannot and will not go on forever.

419   brightc   2005 Oct 1, 11:51am  

"Phoung" (it's "Phuong", actually, if you want to do it right),

I have serious doubt about the Open Source movement and Linux. To me, it's just as idealistic as Prohibition and communism. Granted, you have a pool of talented and warm-hearted individuals who are willing to maintain an OS and various software for free. But software will grow more and more complex, until you cannot further modify it, and will have to start writing it anew. Over time, who will have the energy and commitment to do it, for free? Will you? I'm pretty sure you will say you will, but do you have the expertise and intelligence of people like Richard Stallman or Linus Torvalds? I doubt you can replace them as they grow older and expanding their families. Many of us can't. That's why I think The open source movement will die out over time.

Even Microsoft shows its exhaustion. Last week's Business Week portrays a Microsoft under crisis, as its leaders get older and become lack of energy. Everyone gets tired sometimes, so don't assume that there will be always high quality software engineers who will do free work forever. Living in the Valley, you must believe capitalism to the extreme end, or you should move out. There's no in-between in this system, my friend.

As a fellow Vietnamese, I'm disappointed hearing you saying you're mistreated because you're not considered a true American. I think the reason is just due to your shortcomings, not your race or your looks. If only you could be a little more positive and have a better attitude, you could find it easier in life. But I really don't know you, so I'm not going to make further assumptions here.

I've seen people hanging around their 'hood for too long in their lives, and have assumed some sort of aggressive attitude toward others, while neglecting reflecting upon themselves. I believe if you find out what improvements you can make personally, you'll be even more likable, and will be very successful.

Good luck!

420   brightc   2005 Oct 1, 12:08pm  

Furthermore, the outsourcing threat is very real to Silicon Valley, especially to Silicon Valley software engineers. The fact remains that we have lots of so-called software engineers who write terrible, unmaintainable code, but they don't even know it! People who think they're top-notch, thinking that their jobs are secure, and making outrageous demands, like they should be able to afford housing (at the peak of the market) in the Bay Area because they can use J2EE, Linux, and make web services using Tomcat. Outsourcing will most likely produce the same poor quality software works, but at 1/3 of the cost. Why would one believe it won't apply to the Silicon Valley?

The danger here is that there are individuals who don't prepare and improve themselves to deal with this problem. They're just like ostriches hiding their heads into the sand. This attitude has got to change, otherwise, they soon will run out of people to blame.

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