patrick.net

One fundamental question: would you rather see the sad truth or a rosy illusion if the subject has little effect on you anyway?

I can't help but feel that any fallacy ends up being harmful in some way. Think of the rosy illusion of a robust economy or housing market. If people buy because of the illusion, they end up being harmed in the long run. Yes, they should independently research the subject, but people are notoriously short-sighted and having an irresponsible media doesn't do anyone any good. A sad truth may end up saving someone some grief down the road, a much better outcome IMO.

Anyway, the sad truth is I must go to bed; the children will wake up early and I am already sleep deprived. Nite Peter.

Good night.

Are we continuing for numbers …. say 1000 posts?

But there is no thread bubble...

One concern I have is this blog should strive to engage a diverse set of people to contribute.

How do we do this exactly? We already know there are a lot of lurkers who may or may not choose to post for their own reasons. No one can really control who chooses to post here other than the times we choose to delete particularly offensive comments. But I don't know how to make the board more diverse. People will do what they choose to do.

This thread appears to be in some seasonal dip.

This thread appears to be in some seasonal dip.

Come spring, the thread will gain momentum and eclipse all previous activity.

"Come spring, the thread will gain momentum and eclipse all previous activity."

There is no thread bubble!

"One concern I have is this blog should strive to engage a diverse set of people to contribute"

We could bus in a more diverse set of bloggers...

Politically, I think we are pretty diverse. We have everyone from left to right wing, and all sorts of degrees in between.

Opinion-wise, well, I think people gravitate here usually because they believe there is a housing bubble. Maybe the housing bulls are all too busy buying up real estate to chat with us.

We also have gender diversity. (I'm female, BTW, although my mother chose to give me one of those names that leaves one wondering, and always has people in SoCal assuming I'm a middle-aged Hispanic man when they see my name on paper.)

And as far as ethnic diversity, who knows, but I would guess we pretty much represent the typical demographics of the internet.

We should rename this The Never-Ending Thread.

Oh my, I thought we'd run out of space to post on this "Social Effects" thread, then you come back again.

Phuong, I thought you'd said you'd leave this blog for good. What nationality is "juju"? Are you trying to pass as a Zambian now?

Heh, I see from your IP address that you're using Dial-up this time. I wonder why a millionaire like you can't afford highspeed. Are you trying to explain to Silicon Valley residents how the Internet Protocol works? Dude, you're so brave.

Thanks for your interest in the BA real estate market. Keep buying, dude, we need you. Just like fireworks, we want to see a spectacular burst.

See, soft landing in this thread. Comment count is still going up, although at a more sustainable rate. Soon, this thread will be worth 1000K (1000 Komments)!

good luck renting… you will be sorry

Huh? This makes no sense at all. We did a rent vs. own calculator on the house we rent and in almost no scenario would it be better to buy. The house would have to see a guaranteed 8% appreciation for the next ten years to make buying the property a better deal than renting. Even at 5% appreciation buying the house would mean spending over $100,000 more than renting over 10 years. 7% appreciation would be an almost break even deal. And before you argue that 8% appreciation over the long term is likely, an almost identical house down the street has lowered it's asking price by almost $20,000 in the last month. As far as I can tell, that means the home values are already depreciating, and in 10 years I seriously doubt we'll see housing first crash and then triple in value. And if that does happen all I have to do is buy when the values go down and it's a win win for me.

Btw, I love that this thread won't die!

"We did a rent vs. own calculator on the house we rent and in almost no scenario would it be better to buy. The house would have to see a guaranteed 8% appreciation for the next ten years to make buying the property a better deal than renting"

I was just looking on craigslist at rental houses on the peninsula (San Mateo area), and OMG, you'd have to be smoking crack to think it's better to buy a house there than rent. There are many nice rental properties at reasonable prices, whereas to buy an equivalent house would be well over a million dollars.

I personally have much lower standards for rentals, because I know I"m only going to be in it for a few years, whereas if I were laying out my life savings on a house, I absolutely could not find one in our price range that I'd want to buy. Plus, all the rentals I saw had gardeners included. Another thing I wouldn't be able to afford if I were a buyer.

whereas if I were laying out my life savings on a house, I absolutely could not find one in our price range that I’d want to buy. Plus, all the rentals I saw had gardeners included. Another thing I wouldn’t be able to afford if I were a buyer.

It really is amazing the deals you can find as a renter. The house we rent is approx 1900 sqft for $1350 a month. You can't buy a house for less than 2 1/2x's that in this market. Why would I buy?

Sorry? I don't think so.

good luck renting… you will be sorry

This type of comments would have been rejected if we were in a normal thread market. Still, there is no thread bubble.

"See, soft landing in this thread."

Calling this a soft landing is unnecessarily pessimistic. Moneyed immigrants are busy setting up their first computers and internet connections as I type this and will soon overwhelm the thread with new activity.

JuJu, or Phoung, dude, learn some freaking grammar! Perhaps spending some of that equity to hire an english tutor might be your best investment ever!

House party on the social effects thread! Surfer-X, you bring the forty-ounce.

Don't let the smooth taste fool ya.

Peter P, you bring the sushi. Sacto, you bring the phat ride. I'll bring da music...I've got a Parliament album around here somewhere.

so they must make fun of people who already own and is set for life.

I feel so sorry for you, I think you meant, "so they must make fun of people who already own and are set for life".

You really really should consider improving your 8th grade English skills.

You are interesting group of people. As soon as somebody disagress with you and you no longer can argue with logic you start to use word like “fuck” and “asshole” and all other profanities and you accuse them of being a same person…

Please do not use broad generalizations. Most people here do not insult anyone who disagrees, we choose to refute the arguments with the vast amount of information out there that backs up our point of view. You can choose to disagree, but when you're arrogant and insulting, you're going to get the feedback you object to.

Many people here have zero debt and investments in other places than RE. To assume that we're jealous seems to be a defense mechanism on your part and makes you seem insecure about your RE ownership. I can't help but wonder if your loans are adjustable, and maybe you're worried.

juju, phuong, phoung, punk, whatever you wanna be called...nobody here gives a rat's ass about you. Come or go, who cares. But if you try to put on some sorts of makeup, disguises, making up stories about properties you don't have, etc., please do everyone a favor and make those stories more believable next time. Okie dokie.

I can't believe I work my ass off just to make about $10k a month, stock and bonuses, zero debt, while juju just sits tight, looks pretty (ok, maybe not pretty, but, well, it's juju, what can you say), carrying close to $600k in option ARM, and makes 70% of my income a month off the same roof he's living under. God, yeah, I'm just soooooooooooo jealous :-)

>but it is very difficult to get more information without court order. I >have tried it in the past. Almost got in trouble once because they >told me that it is invasion of privacy. but if you do it secretly, you >should be ok.

Bull excrement.

Juju

I can't help but feel you're missing the point somehow. I hope you don't get burned, I really do. There are times to rent and there are times to buy. Just because you got lucky doesn't mean you're bulletproof, or a genius. The market will most definitely not take off in the spring. If you take your own advice and buy, then you will get screwed and then I won't feel sorry for you because then you will have just made a stupid move against all signs to the contrary.

juju, I find your so-called "logic" hilarious. It's easy to go back in time and tell someone "you should've done this" and "you should've done that". Too bad I don't own a time machine. If I did, boy oh boy, how I would show ya.

By your logic, I could tell you that you should've bough SUNW in 1998 and sold on January 2000, and you would've been set for life. Unless you're too dense to be observant, the housing market has reached its peak and is in its decline. Talking about making 70% of my income a month, while having the Sword of Damocles of option ARM hanging above your head is not sound investment. Thank you very much. I'd rather work my ass off at Adobe, making $10k a month with no debts, and maybe buy some stock at this time rather than trying to be as "smart" as you are.

What does my employer have anything to do with this? Did Adobe fire you for not "fitting in"? You're the one that tries to pass off as a Vietnamese guy working at Adobe. Why, what for? Nobody gives a damn. But since your stories have never checked out, you've turned out to be a nuisance, and your sole purpose in this blog has been self-defeating.

I'll never take an investment advice from someone who can barely write, with multiple mediocre disguises, and talking about basic stuff like IP addresses as if it were some vewy, vewy complicated topic. You're also mixing me with surfer-x too, that's another amazing feat.

Do me a favor, buy another house, with optional ARM! We'll love to hear more from you a year from now.

See? No insulting, just best wishes.

You are set for life because you can either sell the other house or just let the bank take it.

Sorry, you lose the non-recourse protection in cash-out refinances. If something looks too good to be true, it is actually too bad to be bearable.

Must feed the troll. Must feed the thread bubble...

Oops, did I say b.... There is no thread bubble!

I concur there is no thread bubble.

Sword of Damocles of option ARM

Nice, very very nice.

Must feed the troll. Must feed the thread bubble…

Oops, did I say b…. There is no thread bubble!

Lol

This is one occasion where feeding the troll works to our advantage.
Here's to the neverending thread!

Yes, bull excrement does tend to pass. Too funny Newsfreak.

There is no Fuchs and no thread bubble. Long live Mr. Fuchs, long live the thread.

let me tell you about difference between stocks and real estate.

Don't they offer English courses in Troll-Ville? If so, perhaps you might want to explore actually learning how to compose a literate sentence.

if i have 2 houses than it will be paid off sooner because i can refinance one to pay off the other.

I just love your logic, ok here goes, I have two houses, each are "valued" at 200K, each goes up by 200K, I refi the first and take out 200K and pay off the second, well now I owe 400K on the first. How exactly does this pay the houses off any quicker? Oh, now I get it, you are going to sell the second house to someone you know and default on the note, as home loans are no recourse, you defraud the bank and walk with 400K. Great, now you can afford some fucking English lessons.

Juju

You claim your arguments are logical, but come on! Only an idiot would buy right now. But hey, go ahead and prove us wrong. Buy as many properties as you can as soon as possible. Take out as much equity as you possibly can and buy the biggest property you can find. After all, the bigger it is, the bigger the profit. Right?

refinance again in 5 years to take another 400K out. do you understand now? but you may sell if you want. there is no tax on it for $500K profit

You are a fucking idiot, here let me explain it to you in broken Enrish so maybe understand you will, if take equity loan, money not yours, money banks, debt not same as wealth, own nothing you do, bank own, you owe. If get equity loan, not free tax, Uncle Sam mad at you.

you rent out the house with the mortgage and have people like you rent it out and pay for the mortgage. that way you can refinance again in 5 years to take another 400K out. do you understand now? but you may sell if you want. there is no tax on it for $500K profit. not bad considering that when you buy that house, you only put in 10 to 20%. you make money off bank money and you pay no tax on it. there is very little down side.

I think you're just baiting us now. There is no way you could possibly believe this. You cannot buy a house now and get enough rent to cover the mortgage unless you put a ton of money down on the house, and you're still paying waaaaaaaay too much. Millionaires are not buying houses right now, they know better. The speculators in the market at this moment are Johnny Come Lately's who don't know any better. Ring a bell? The downside is coming whether you choose to believe it or not. But please, buy more properties, I'm begging you.

Juju, I appreciate your good-hearted nature. In the world of blogging, you advise perfect strangers like us the best and fool-proof way to make money, which is to pour money into buying houses at the peak, with 0% down, by using home equity and optiona ARM loans. Fantastic. And you share with us your success stories without asking for anything in return. If making money out of real estate ALWAYS works the way you preach, why isn't everyone doing it? Are the rest of the world dumb, and there's only you who are the smart one?

Nah, that doesn't sound right to me. How about this alternative theory: I think you're a pissed-off realtor(tm) who's getting really desperate recently. Your houses have been listed for at least three months, with no takers, and the sellers insist on selling them over $700k. You beg and beg and beg, and they lower them to 3% less. You know that it won't help because if people can barely afford houses at 4% Option ARM's, they can't afford buying at 6% Option ARM, even the sellers are "flexible" enough to give a 3% discount.

So, you've decided to come (back) here, posting nonesense, hoping to convert some people. Well, the two guys you have converted may actually be someone in your family (stupidity is hereditary), so you may as well end up shootin' yourself in the foot.

Keep entertain it. Some of us will come back and give you some good hurtin' whenever we feel we need some more entertainment.

Juju

Here's an article you should read. It proves the point that RE investors who know anything are getting out of the market right now. You'd be wise to pay attention.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/21/news/newsmakers/barrack/index.htm?cnn=yes