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Social effects of the bubble


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2005 Sep 21, 3:01am   51,046 views  583 comments

by SQT15   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Per Jamie's request

What kind of social impact do you think there has been by the bubble? Are people any different because of the wealth effect? What about the social impact on people who have not bought into the RE market? Do you think what we are seeing is predictable human behavior that will occur again in the next bubble?

Is there a social impact we haven't discussed yet?

#bubbles

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539   SQT15   2005 Oct 17, 1:49am  

good luck renting… you will be sorry

Huh? This makes no sense at all. We did a rent vs. own calculator on the house we rent and in almost no scenario would it be better to buy. The house would have to see a guaranteed 8% appreciation for the next ten years to make buying the property a better deal than renting. Even at 5% appreciation buying the house would mean spending over $100,000 more than renting over 10 years. 7% appreciation would be an almost break even deal. And before you argue that 8% appreciation over the long term is likely, an almost identical house down the street has lowered it's asking price by almost $20,000 in the last month. As far as I can tell, that means the home values are already depreciating, and in 10 years I seriously doubt we'll see housing first crash and then triple in value. And if that does happen all I have to do is buy when the values go down and it's a win win for me.

Btw, I love that this thread won't die!

540   Jamie   2005 Oct 17, 2:36am  

"We did a rent vs. own calculator on the house we rent and in almost no scenario would it be better to buy. The house would have to see a guaranteed 8% appreciation for the next ten years to make buying the property a better deal than renting"

I was just looking on craigslist at rental houses on the peninsula (San Mateo area), and OMG, you'd have to be smoking crack to think it's better to buy a house there than rent. There are many nice rental properties at reasonable prices, whereas to buy an equivalent house would be well over a million dollars.

I personally have much lower standards for rentals, because I know I"m only going to be in it for a few years, whereas if I were laying out my life savings on a house, I absolutely could not find one in our price range that I'd want to buy. Plus, all the rentals I saw had gardeners included. Another thing I wouldn't be able to afford if I were a buyer.

541   SQT15   2005 Oct 17, 3:47am  

whereas if I were laying out my life savings on a house, I absolutely could not find one in our price range that I’d want to buy. Plus, all the rentals I saw had gardeners included. Another thing I wouldn’t be able to afford if I were a buyer.

It really is amazing the deals you can find as a renter. The house we rent is approx 1900 sqft for $1350 a month. You can't buy a house for less than 2 1/2x's that in this market. Why would I buy?

Sorry? I don't think so.

542   Peter P   2005 Oct 17, 8:40am  

good luck renting… you will be sorry

This type of comments would have been rejected if we were in a normal thread market. Still, there is no thread bubble.

543   Jamie   2005 Oct 17, 8:42am  

"See, soft landing in this thread."

Calling this a soft landing is unnecessarily pessimistic. Moneyed immigrants are busy setting up their first computers and internet connections as I type this and will soon overwhelm the thread with new activity.

544   surfer-x   2005 Oct 17, 8:52am  

JuJu, or Phoung, dude, learn some freaking grammar! Perhaps spending some of that equity to hire an english tutor might be your best investment ever!

545   Jamie   2005 Oct 17, 8:59am  

House party on the social effects thread! Surfer-X, you bring the forty-ounce.

546   surfer-x   2005 Oct 17, 9:32am  

Don't let the smooth taste fool ya.

547   Jamie   2005 Oct 17, 1:10pm  

Peter P, you bring the sushi. Sacto, you bring the phat ride. I'll bring da music...I've got a Parliament album around here somewhere.

548   surfer-x   2005 Oct 18, 3:24pm  

so they must make fun of people who already own and is set for life.

I feel so sorry for you, I think you meant, "so they must make fun of people who already own and are set for life".

You really really should consider improving your 8th grade English skills.

549   SQT15   2005 Oct 18, 3:27pm  

You are interesting group of people. As soon as somebody disagress with you and you no longer can argue with logic you start to use word like “fuck” and “asshole” and all other profanities and you accuse them of being a same person…

Please do not use broad generalizations. Most people here do not insult anyone who disagrees, we choose to refute the arguments with the vast amount of information out there that backs up our point of view. You can choose to disagree, but when you're arrogant and insulting, you're going to get the feedback you object to.

Many people here have zero debt and investments in other places than RE. To assume that we're jealous seems to be a defense mechanism on your part and makes you seem insecure about your RE ownership. I can't help but wonder if your loans are adjustable, and maybe you're worried.

550   brightc   2005 Oct 18, 4:18pm  

juju, phuong, phoung, punk, whatever you wanna be called...nobody here gives a rat's ass about you. Come or go, who cares. But if you try to put on some sorts of makeup, disguises, making up stories about properties you don't have, etc., please do everyone a favor and make those stories more believable next time. Okie dokie.

I can't believe I work my ass off just to make about $10k a month, stock and bonuses, zero debt, while juju just sits tight, looks pretty (ok, maybe not pretty, but, well, it's juju, what can you say), carrying close to $600k in option ARM, and makes 70% of my income a month off the same roof he's living under. God, yeah, I'm just soooooooooooo jealous :-)

551   brightc   2005 Oct 18, 4:24pm  

>but it is very difficult to get more information without court order. I >have tried it in the past. Almost got in trouble once because they >told me that it is invasion of privacy. but if you do it secretly, you >should be ok.

Bull excrement.

552   SQT15   2005 Oct 19, 3:28pm  

Juju

I can't help but feel you're missing the point somehow. I hope you don't get burned, I really do. There are times to rent and there are times to buy. Just because you got lucky doesn't mean you're bulletproof, or a genius. The market will most definitely not take off in the spring. If you take your own advice and buy, then you will get screwed and then I won't feel sorry for you because then you will have just made a stupid move against all signs to the contrary.

553   brightc   2005 Oct 19, 4:02pm  

juju, I find your so-called "logic" hilarious. It's easy to go back in time and tell someone "you should've done this" and "you should've done that". Too bad I don't own a time machine. If I did, boy oh boy, how I would show ya.

By your logic, I could tell you that you should've bough SUNW in 1998 and sold on January 2000, and you would've been set for life. Unless you're too dense to be observant, the housing market has reached its peak and is in its decline. Talking about making 70% of my income a month, while having the Sword of Damocles of option ARM hanging above your head is not sound investment. Thank you very much. I'd rather work my ass off at Adobe, making $10k a month with no debts, and maybe buy some stock at this time rather than trying to be as "smart" as you are.

What does my employer have anything to do with this? Did Adobe fire you for not "fitting in"? You're the one that tries to pass off as a Vietnamese guy working at Adobe. Why, what for? Nobody gives a damn. But since your stories have never checked out, you've turned out to be a nuisance, and your sole purpose in this blog has been self-defeating.

I'll never take an investment advice from someone who can barely write, with multiple mediocre disguises, and talking about basic stuff like IP addresses as if it were some vewy, vewy complicated topic. You're also mixing me with surfer-x too, that's another amazing feat.

Do me a favor, buy another house, with optional ARM! We'll love to hear more from you a year from now.

See? No insulting, just best wishes.

554   Peter P   2005 Oct 20, 5:26am  

You are set for life because you can either sell the other house or just let the bank take it.

Sorry, you lose the non-recourse protection in cash-out refinances. If something looks too good to be true, it is actually too bad to be bearable.

555   Peter P   2005 Oct 20, 5:27am  

Must feed the troll. Must feed the thread bubble...

Oops, did I say b.... There is no thread bubble!

556   surfer-x   2005 Oct 20, 5:35am  

I concur there is no thread bubble.

Sword of Damocles of option ARM

Nice, very very nice.

557   SQT15   2005 Oct 20, 7:04am  

Must feed the troll. Must feed the thread bubble…

Oops, did I say b…. There is no thread bubble!

Lol

This is one occasion where feeding the troll works to our advantage.
Here's to the neverending thread!

558   SQT15   2005 Oct 21, 3:28am  

Yes, bull excrement does tend to pass. Too funny Newsfreak.

559   surfer-x   2005 Oct 22, 2:41am  

There is no Fuchs and no thread bubble. Long live Mr. Fuchs, long live the thread.

560   surfer-x   2005 Oct 22, 9:57am  

let me tell you about difference between stocks and real estate.

Don't they offer English courses in Troll-Ville? If so, perhaps you might want to explore actually learning how to compose a literate sentence.

561   surfer-x   2005 Oct 22, 1:37pm  

if i have 2 houses than it will be paid off sooner because i can refinance one to pay off the other.

I just love your logic, ok here goes, I have two houses, each are "valued" at 200K, each goes up by 200K, I refi the first and take out 200K and pay off the second, well now I owe 400K on the first. How exactly does this pay the houses off any quicker? Oh, now I get it, you are going to sell the second house to someone you know and default on the note, as home loans are no recourse, you defraud the bank and walk with 400K. Great, now you can afford some fucking English lessons.

562   SQT15   2005 Oct 22, 4:29pm  

Juju

You claim your arguments are logical, but come on! Only an idiot would buy right now. But hey, go ahead and prove us wrong. Buy as many properties as you can as soon as possible. Take out as much equity as you possibly can and buy the biggest property you can find. After all, the bigger it is, the bigger the profit. Right?

563   surfer-x   2005 Oct 23, 2:52pm  

refinance again in 5 years to take another 400K out. do you understand now? but you may sell if you want. there is no tax on it for $500K profit

You are a fucking idiot, here let me explain it to you in broken Enrish so maybe understand you will, if take equity loan, money not yours, money banks, debt not same as wealth, own nothing you do, bank own, you owe. If get equity loan, not free tax, Uncle Sam mad at you.

564   SQT15   2005 Oct 23, 3:13pm  

you rent out the house with the mortgage and have people like you rent it out and pay for the mortgage. that way you can refinance again in 5 years to take another 400K out. do you understand now? but you may sell if you want. there is no tax on it for $500K profit. not bad considering that when you buy that house, you only put in 10 to 20%. you make money off bank money and you pay no tax on it. there is very little down side.

I think you're just baiting us now. There is no way you could possibly believe this. You cannot buy a house now and get enough rent to cover the mortgage unless you put a ton of money down on the house, and you're still paying waaaaaaaay too much. Millionaires are not buying houses right now, they know better. The speculators in the market at this moment are Johnny Come Lately's who don't know any better. Ring a bell? The downside is coming whether you choose to believe it or not. But please, buy more properties, I'm begging you.

565   brightc   2005 Oct 23, 6:14pm  

Juju, I appreciate your good-hearted nature. In the world of blogging, you advise perfect strangers like us the best and fool-proof way to make money, which is to pour money into buying houses at the peak, with 0% down, by using home equity and optiona ARM loans. Fantastic. And you share with us your success stories without asking for anything in return. If making money out of real estate ALWAYS works the way you preach, why isn't everyone doing it? Are the rest of the world dumb, and there's only you who are the smart one?

Nah, that doesn't sound right to me. How about this alternative theory: I think you're a pissed-off realtor(tm) who's getting really desperate recently. Your houses have been listed for at least three months, with no takers, and the sellers insist on selling them over $700k. You beg and beg and beg, and they lower them to 3% less. You know that it won't help because if people can barely afford houses at 4% Option ARM's, they can't afford buying at 6% Option ARM, even the sellers are "flexible" enough to give a 3% discount.

So, you've decided to come (back) here, posting nonesense, hoping to convert some people. Well, the two guys you have converted may actually be someone in your family (stupidity is hereditary), so you may as well end up shootin' yourself in the foot.

Keep entertain it. Some of us will come back and give you some good hurtin' whenever we feel we need some more entertainment.

566   SQT15   2005 Oct 24, 3:21am  

Juju

Here's an article you should read. It proves the point that RE investors who know anything are getting out of the market right now. You'd be wise to pay attention.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/21/news/newsmakers/barrack/index.htm?cnn=yes

567   Peter P   2005 Oct 24, 3:44pm  

Juju, we love you!

568   Peter P   2005 Oct 24, 3:45pm  

Juju, we love you!

Huh? Why did I say that. By the way, the "Huh?" thread has surpassed this one in terms of kommet count. Let's blow that thread b... balloon instead.

Bye juju.

569   Jamie   2005 Oct 25, 3:12pm  

"Juju, we love you!

Huh? Why did I say that."

Because it has such a nice ring to it?

Because Juju needs to feel the love?

Because there is no thread bubble?

570   Peter P   2005 Oct 26, 4:34pm  

This thread is petering out. Huh? is still strong. Perhaps this is a case of rolling thread boom?

571   SQT15   2005 Oct 28, 5:32am  

Phong Nuygen Says:

October 4th, 2005 at 9:49 am e

Is it just me or does anybody else notice that practically all response to my posts come in bunches, within few minutes of each other… under a different name.

I still content that there are only 2 to 4 posters on this board.

juju Says:

October 27th, 2005 at 9:08 pm e
i guess i am not surprised since you are the one that has 3,4 or all identity on this board. We should meet together someplace and just talk instead of you pretending to be multiple people.

Despite your protests to the contrary, you've outed youself as your own multiple personalities. (Funny that you love to accuse others of doing the same) You have successfully proven to be the troll we all thought you were. Nothing you say has credibilty and you are no longer worth the effort to talk to. Find someone else to bother. Better yet, keep talking to yourself so you don't bother anyone else.

572   brightc   2005 Oct 28, 7:51am  

SactoQt, we're reaching 865 posts now. Please let juju keep posting and talking to self, and soon, it'll reach 1,000.

Then at that time, juju will proudly proclaim that he/she owns this thread, and got in when it had only 500 posts.

But then, no one else is interested to take the troll bait anymore. juju will be alone and start giving him/herself lessons in real estate investment.

Hey, juju, why hate me so much? I just stated the fact that you just can't keep up with your own lies. If you can't even follow through with your bs, how can you revive this housing bubble? You're useless.

The thread bubble, keep it coming :-)

573   Peter P   2005 Oct 28, 5:41pm  

SactoQt, we’re reaching 865 posts now. Please let juju keep posting and talking to self, and soon, it’ll reach 1,000.

"Huh?" has passed the 1300 mark!

We can edit juju's comments (blanking them out) without affecting comment count. We make the thread market! There is no thread bubble!

574   Peter P   2005 Oct 28, 5:43pm  

>>>> Millionaires are not buying houses right now
:) … you are so dumb. look at the sales of million dollar houses in california. it has skyrocketed this year! enough said.

Huh? Buying a million dollar home will make you a millionaire? Perhaps I should buy one. Where is my realtor's phone number. I lost his number. :(

575   surfer-x   2005 Oct 29, 12:36pm  

as an Econ major here at UCSB

or as we like to call it, Chico South.

I believe “phoung”, “peter”, “brightc”, “surfer-x” are all one in the same.

And I believe you are a cum drunk sorority whore.

if it goes back to $100,000, chances are that the economy has completely collapsed and nobody can afford it at $1,000,000. This still bolds well for the real estate holder as real estate is worth what it is worth at any given time and the chances are that the person who could afford it at $1,000,000 has lost money in his/her other investments as well.

Your parents need to go to the registrar and get their money back.

Look up the stats you vapid trollop and then explain why housing has diverged from over 100 years of data. Real estate tracks inflation, period. Good luck on your cock hunt tonight, but isn't that every night in Isla Vista.

576   SQT15   2005 Oct 29, 4:02pm  

Also, based on what I’ve read and the writing patterns I’ve been able to identify on this thread, there really is only 2 poster. I believe “phoung”, “peter”, “brightc”, “surfer-x” are all one in the same.

You lost any possibility of having any credibility by posting this. Maybe you need to go back and take some English classes, as your ability to detect "patterns" in the writing is pretty sad.

Come back and post when you've actually committed some $$ in RE (not your parents $$ either) then we'll talk.

577   Peter P   2005 Oct 30, 3:25pm  

I believe “phoung”, “peter”, “brightc”, “surfer-x” are all one in the same.

I am also Czar Peter the Great.

578   Peter P   2005 Oct 30, 3:27pm  

I see. If group of people come to similar conclusion than they must be one person. All Democrats is one person and All Republicans is one person.

You mean they are not? :)

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