patrick.net

Jim Cramer: "the housing bubble is dead"

I thought he used to say that there is no housing bubble.

Okay, the unicorn is dead.

Hey, MP, did you see the sfarmls link I posed in the last thread? Do you think that one is "underpriced" because it is below the $1000/sf you suggested?

A $3.051M house in premium SF hardly provides any evidence of the housing market. What next, shall we shop comparables on Belvedere Island and in Atherton? I really could care less about asset values in the

Hey guys, are you surprised that this house went for $550,000 over asking? I mean, it’s September right and we’re supposed to be in a bubble right?

Not surprised. I even expect the condo link I posted yesterday to go for 400K over asking.

It proves nothing about the housing market in general.

i think it’s good value

Whatever. That link provides little info for comparisons.
And speaking of which, what's with this micro-focus on select SF markets?
So the examples you hand-pick are selling high, one could easily take issue with that if we're making assumptions about the overal RE scene. What are providing to overal commentary? You examples are repetitious, and rather irrelevant and absurd, IMO.

What next, shall we shop comparables on Belvedere Island
Well, speaking of which: homes in Belvedere are mostly sitting. I've seen some with signs for 6 mos. or more--with no price reductions.

Peter P - You thinking your condo is going $400,000 over asking (35%+!!) while maintaining a bearish stance on real estate is inconsistent. How does that logic make sense to you? That’s like being a meat eating vegetarian!

1) These condos are not too credit dependent, people do not usually stretch to buy them. They are not representative of the general housing bubble picture.

2) Price over asking shows nothing because even if the asking price is $1, it will still go for the roughly the same sale price. Come on, "efficient market", right?

That’s like being a meat eating vegetarian!

I know a vegetarian who eats sushi.

You thinking your condo...

I wish it were my condo. :-P

Here you are, full of hatred, swearing, and bitterness b/c you missed the boat

A lot of us here didn't miss the boat at all, myself included. We're just figuring out where the dock is to the next boat. You Realtors(tm) ...i love that, we trademark our title like we're a cult or something...go ahead and think that boats float forever. I'm staring at a 42 page document prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York which says your boat is sinking, by all measurable dimensions. What you got? Padded MLS listings? California Association of Realtors data which has been conslusively proven false by nearly every reputable econometricist in the state? A "Virtual Tour"?

Ok, vent-off. I really hate Trolls. I can never avoid taking the bait.

Guys, is there a dilplomatic solution?

Okay, this needs to stop.

Peter P, actually yes, there is a diplomatic solution, I won’t post here anymore, as quite frankly while I really enjoy most of your comments, fucknobs like Primetroll are the reason I despise the BA.

That is entirely unacceptable. You are a star here. I sincerely ask you to stay.

Why don't you start the next thread and you will have the power to delete?

Social effects of the bubble

The great schadenfreude I'll experience as I watch myriad Realtors(tm) get bounced out of their leased Lexuses. Oh where will they all end up? They're not charasmatic enough to sell used cars. They lack the quantitative skills to be insurance adjustors, or the salesmanship to be insurance agents. Forget about real licenses like CPAs or Series-X. Hmmm. I think we'll see that social-mobility (downward) theory come to life for this bunch. And this, I'll not mourn.

Social effects of the bubble

LOL. Randy, you are the expert!

Forget about real licenses like CPAs or Series-X.

Amazing that real estate professionals do not have real licenses.

Peter P,

Thanks for taking care of our little 'problem child' --you beat me to it. I really wish he'd take up Surfer-X on his offer. I have a feeling that would take care of the problem ;-) .

I'm sorry I wasn't here when the troll started posting, I can't monitor the site all the time so it's ineveitable the troll will post when I'm not here. I'm begging you guys to please stop responding to him. He likes the insults. He's here for the attention. You must ignore him or he won't go. Surfer-X, please don't go, I'll always jump in and delete his comments as soon as I can. But know this, there is nothing you can do to annoy him more than ignoring him. Truly.

Thanks for taking care of our little ‘problem child’ –you beat me to it.

That was SactoQt, not me. :)

BTW, only Patrick and the thread-owner has the power.

Yup, anyone who starts a thread has power to delete, this one just happens to be "mine."

Say goodbye to MP's latest incarnation. He'll be back soon enough, of course.

I think whoever thinks that US is definitely going down need to take some time off and travel around the world for a year, and I mean it. There is nothing more telling than seeing the world with your own eyes. If you think we stink, there are far more stinkier countries out there. I say so because I am a first generation immigrant (legal of course) and I thought real hard about which passport to carry. I deliberately worked and studied in many countries to make sure I don't get on a sinking boat.

I am with Randy H 100% on his/her assessment of the situation. Grant it, when the bubble bursts, we will be heading into probably the most difficult period of American history, since we need to repay many debt that this country has accumulated over the years, moral debt, social debt, skill debt, etc, the list goes on. But never lose sight that even with all these problems, we still enjoyone of the highest natural resources per capita, we have more than enough food and water generated in this country for our own consumption (60% of world's food output comes from US) even if world trade comes to an entire halt. So if it is going to be the end of the world, I will stick around here because we shall have a better survival chance than anywhere else on earth. Period.

In a way, we need a big recession. We have been sick for a while, and it is about time that the symptoms surface altogether so we can take a stab at the root of the problem. Perhaps we have to turn a bit left for social stability, perhaps we have to cut down shopping expenditure, that is all needed for the healing process.

Wow, guess something happened while I was away.
Did someone have a meltdown? awww.

Why don’t you start the next thread and you will have the power to delete?

X-man, stay around--your posts are interesting, and far more relevant than our bent Marina statistician.

1. Let everybody speak. To silence one is a mistake.

2. Ignore him or don't.

3. Surfer X, come on man, thicken that skin. Physical threats? He's beaten you so many times here, why take it up in person? He has got a thumb on your button, and you can't ever beat a button pusher by popping your head off every time he pushes your button.

4. To threaten a man about whom you know little or nothing is either very brave or very foolish. As I once said in a younger year when anger was still within me . . . "I don't care how big you are, if you're not bulletproof, you're picking the wrong fight."

According to Merrill's annual survey, we have close to 4M millionaires in the US (50% of the world), classified as those with at least 1M worth of cash or cash equivalents (stock, bonds, etc.), realty holdings and occupied homes don't count towards the networth. I think only these 4M people should be counted towards the sub-rich class. Of course, the billionaires are also included in the 4M number.

Escaped from the District . . . With Kurt Russel Says:

4. To threaten a man about whom you know little or nothing is either very brave or very foolish. As I once said in a younger year when anger was still within me . . . “I don’t care how big you are, if you’re not bulletproof, you’re picking the wrong fight.”

Please don't chime in just to stir the pot, it isn't needed or wanted. Many many times has the blog voted to BAN the troll, we've tried to block him but he's so desperate for attention he won't go away. We like Surfer-X and want to keep him so please don't add to the antagonism.

I was chiming in to stir the pot?

Man o man. Does that minimize what I thought I was doing.

Hey - sure - whatever. I guess I'll try to go figure out why I cared enough to post.

Don't feed the troll. Mollify the profane crybaby who provides "valuable posts."

Oh wait, look, I'm a troll. Better delete this post before is messes up the profound continuity of this thread.

I vote to nicely ask Surfer-X to stay.

Oh wait, look, I’m a troll. Better delete this post before is messes up the profound continuity of this thread.

How are you a troll?

Escape, your view are highly valued too.

Gosh, diplomacy is hard.

So I have enjoyed the company of this board. You all seem like decent people. You all certainly are smart people.

Goodbye folks, be good to your neighbors, regardless of how little they will deserve your goodness.

You posted this earlier in a fit of pique and only came back to defend what?? The troll his ability to irritate the hell out of everyone? We have tried to block him from the site at least 4 times because he's nothing more than an irritant. You think this is about free speech? You certainly objected to other pov's enough earlier to "leave" when you didn't like what was said. But now you're going to pull out the "holier than thou" card for an idiot who does nothing but provoke? Why waste your time?

I think we need to relax and have some iced tea again.

Peter P

I am sorry. I shouldn't get into any arguements either. But I'm tired of defending myself when I am simply doing what the majority of the blog has asked for.

You know how to discipline an errant child don't you? Ignore and/or distract.

Surfer X - you are much too intelligent to get drawn in to this MP - head in the sand- person's mentality.

Come on, seriously, what kind of person takes the time to go out of his way to make other people feel so badly about themselves? Only someone with pathetically low self esteem. He is only trying to make himself feel better ( about what we don't know) but rest assured, he is hurting ( if MP was as successful as he wants us to believe, why in God's name would be even have a minute to spare or even bother to spew such hatred to people on this board)?

He is bored and unfulfilled - don't even respond - just pretend ( better yet, don't even read his posts) that he doesn't exist. Life is too short - don't even waste another minute on this wanna be.

But I’m tired of defending myself when I am simply doing what the majority of the blog has asked for.

You do not need to defend yourself against all POVs. You have the understanding of the majority. Thanks for maintaining all these recent threads. I should have been less lazy. ;)

jbunniii,

our neighbor, Canada, has an oil reserve that is only second to Saudi, in the form of oil sand, in Alberta. Brazil also has a huge reserve that will be made profitable to explore if the spike in oil price continues.

As a continent, we are assured of oil, food supply, drinking water. I am just looking at the worst case scenario. There are far worse continents, e.g. Asia, Europe (excl Russia), and of course Africa. If we can stand the worst case scenario, the rest is all upside.

I gotta log off for awhile. Ignore anything the troll posts and I'll delete when I get back. Eventually if we all ignore him, he'll go since he's not getting the attention he so desperately craves. And since I'm going to delete, it'll be like he was never here anyway.

Just a random thought.

What will the recent climatic catastrophy in the Gulf/FL region do to CA realty? I don't remember the east coast and the Gulf area whacked by hurricanes every year 10 years ago. Will the northeastern well-off snowbirds eventually realize that the Pacific coast is a better alternative than the-soon-to-be-under-water FL? Will that mean CA RE will just stand strong because obviously there will be millions of Americans who can afford to pay more for a better weather? Compared to this persistent annual disaster, once-in-a-while earthquake is just a piece of cake.

Just a random thought.

What will the recent climatic catastrophy in the Gulf/FL region do to CA realty? I don’t remember the east coast and the Gulf area whacked by hurricanes every year 10 years ago. Will the northeastern well-off snowbirds eventually realize that the Pacific coast is a better alternative than the-soon-to-be-under-water FL? Will that mean CA RE will just stand strong because obviously there will be millions of Americans who can afford to pay more for a better weather? Compared to this persistent annual disaster, once-in-a-while earthquake is just a piece of cake.

Given the outrageous cost of RE here in CA displaced people might look to the midwest instead. We'll see.

My husband had a funny story today. He knows a guy who's trying to sell a house in El Dorado Hills, its been on the market for 4-5 months I think. The guy is such an idiot.

He puts the house on the market for $750,000 and gets and offer for $705,000, his response is "are they nuts! I'm not selling for $705K." And he lets the house sit. A month or two goes by and he re-lists the house at $700,000 and someone offers him $680,000. He gives the same answer and doesn't sell. The house is now listed at $650,000 and he says he'd kill for an offer of $680,000. But if someone offers him less than $650,000 he's not going to take it! I wonder how long this is going to go on and how low he'll eventually go. If I hear I'll let you know.

Jack

I was thinking of emailing Surfer-X and telling him that everyone wants him to stay, but I don't want to be too pushy. What do you think?

Cindy

All I know is that the guy bought a new house and is selling the old one. He has family money so doesn't have to sweat it too much, but he keeps wanting to hold out for more money and is just sitting watching the price go down rather than take an offer.