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Oil Shock


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2005 Sep 23, 2:25am   28,572 views  276 comments

by SQT15   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

By Randy H

Oil Shock! It now appears that the US will suffer another severe blow to its oil refining infrastructure. With this being the second major shock to the supply-side of energy in less than a month, and with oil, gas and petrol being major inputs into the US economy, how could this affect the overall US economic situation. Could inflationary energy pressures, rising interest rates, and worsening deficits finally pop the real-estate bubbles in the “frothy” RE markets?

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194   Jimbo   2005 Sep 25, 11:20am  

Almost every other industrialized nation has a health care system similar to Canada's with similar results: they spend half as much as the US does on healthcare and get either similar or better results as measured by overall life span, percentage of infants dying in the first year, percentage of the population on long term disability, disease rates in the population, etc.

Escaped from DC, you claim that Tsusiat “cherry picking a single data point to refute a trend” when you do the same thing with your MRI data. MRI wait times is not a good indicator of overall health system effectiveness and you know it. I think you might be picking a statistic to point out a general fact that when you give something away for free, it tends to be oversubscribed. I bet if you need an emergency MRI, you get it right away in Canada.

Health care is great in the US, if you can afford it. But there is a huge and growing population in the US that cannot afford it. These are the people who are not getting any MRIs at all, except in true emergencies. These are the people not getting their yearly physicals, vaccines and other preventative health care they need to keep overall health care costs low. So Canada saves a lot of money by giving this away for free and saving in the long run. At the very least, we need to find a way to do that in the United States.

195   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 12:34pm  

Jimbo, you're killing me here man.

you wrote . . .
"Escaped from DC, you claim that Tsusiat “cherry picking a single data point to refute a trend” when you do the same thing with your MRI data."

OK, no I don't.

The "MRI data" example was ONE data point that I provided to support the following conclusion - That wait times in Canada were significant and problematic.

BUT, that datapoint was not given alone. In addition to that datapoint, I provided several other examples, including wait times for breast radiation, which led to a massive lawsuit, and a case that involved wait times that went to the Supreme Court, which decided the waits were intolerable in some instances.

So the MRI data was not offered, alone, to support the point that the Canadian health care system sucks, but . . .

rather was provided along with several other corroborating points to support the notion that there is a wait list problem in Canada, which . . .

supports my conclusion that Canada's health care system is problematic, at best.

Finally, Jimbo, I understand your point. Your point is that things in the U.S. are bad and need to be better.

I agree. Our health care system is very problematic. I just don't agree that putting the govt. in charge will do anything but make it worse.

With regard to your contention that Canada is a model we should emulate, however, I also disagree.

I think the notion of making it illegal to own private insurance is anti-American, and I mean that in the Founding Fathers kind of way.

Based on what I've read, Canada's system is getting more problematic with time.

Finally, I'd suggest the following as first steps toward reducing health care costs in the U.S. . . .

Put an end to frivolous lawsuits.

Make damage awards for non-frivolous lawsuits reasonable.

Put the screws on the AMA and other monopolies to get rid of sub-par performers. It makes me sick when I read about physicians who cut off the wrong leg and then move to another state to practice.

Allow all Americans to access medicine from anywhere, and end the American subsidation of the socialist medicince countries.

Get 90% of kids off ritalin.

Stop diagnosing Adult Parenting Disorder as "ADD" "ADHD" and whatever other concoction of letters will make parents feel less responsible.

Have Americans stop stuffing their fat pieholes with crap food.

Make nicotene ILLEGAL. The government tells you that you can crap into no more than 1.6 gallons of water, but it is fine with you sucking down a monstrous mutagen that is physically extremely addictive.

Establish a better hierarchy in medicine. In other words, you don't need to see somebody who has got 10 years of medical training when you have a cold. Here's an example - Went to see a doc about a mole on my kid's back. Didn't think much of it until I get the bill. The guy walked in, looked at his back, and said, "come back in a few years because it's tough on kids this young." Get the bill, 210 bucks. The guy was a surgeon. WTF? Why is a surgeon looking at a mole? A freaking janitor could have told me "come back." And by the way, I went 2 months later to a dermatologist and had it taken off in office - for less than 200 bucks.

Change the whole medical school theory. You simply don't need to go to school for 4 years to be a dermatologist, booby surgeon, or whatever.

Stop having insurance pay for birth control, pregnancies, boner medications, and other optional, non-health issues.

Have a la carte plans where people like me can choose basic catastrophic coverage and people who want plans where they get birth control for "free" can pay extra premiums for the fake freeness.

[the next two are not serious suggestions, although they'd help]
Burn all X-Boxs, Playstations, and all the other garbage machines that help keep kids fat.

Have 1 hour per day limiters on the Idiot Boxes.

I have more, but I have to run to the doctor to get some sleeping pills.

196   Jimbo   2005 Sep 25, 12:41pm  

I agree that there should be some way for those who want to pay more to get more, unlike in Canada or at least Canada until very recently.

How about the British model? Are you familiar with it? That is more likely to be palatable to American tastes.

I agree with most of your reform ideas, especially the ability of lower skilled paraprofessionals to sub in for MDs in many cases. This is not going to happen unless we have some way of ensuring that this does not results in massive lawsuits.

I worked as a medic in the Army and I was constantly practicing "above my pay grade" but since you can't really sue the army it all worked out. I didn't kill anyone either, though I probably caused a few more pain than they would have gotten from a more skilled practitioner.

197   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 12:42pm  

Tsusiat, ah, Tsusiat.

Two things.

1. I think I figured out your issue. You think that I'm trying to argue that the US system is better than the Canadian system? No sir, I'm not.

2. Second request. Please explain what was wrong with the example I gave for Phizer. That's all. Which part of my 100 dollar pill/40 dollar pill example did you think was wrong? It's a simple question. I promise I'll answer any simple question you ask me. Will you answer this one simple question?

Tsusiat - You directed me to a link and told me to go see what your prime minister had to say. I Tsusiat, I always want to learn. I did what you said. I went there.

Here's the first sentence of the second paragraph . . .
"Foremost on this agenda is the need to make timely access to quality care a reality for all Canadians."

IF you sent me there to gather support for my point thank you, because clearly "timely access to quality care" is NOT currently a reality for all Canadians.

But Tsusiat, oh Tsusiat, will you answer but one simple question?
Which part of my 100 dollar pill/40 dollar pill example did you think was wrong?

198   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 12:48pm  

JImbo, yep, but I note this . . .

You wrote . . .
"I agree with most of your reform ideas, especially the ability of lower skilled paraprofessionals to sub in for MDs in many cases."

I don't think it's a question of "lower" skill. Instead, I think it's a question of "different skill."

For example, you have a dude whose job it is to draw blood, right? Makes sense to me.
Got antoher dude, he gives you the sleep meds.
Nother dude cuts you open.

The problem is when you walk in, and you've got a doctor with 12 years of education looking at a cut on junior's forehead.

You know what? It's a cut. There should be a "sewing dude" who does nothing but stitch. Post op stitching, slip and fall stitching, etcetera.

Anyway, whatever.

I'm non-violent, but 10 years ago if they had said they were going to implement a plan to make private health insurance illegal in the U.S., it would have been time to load the gun and prepare for the revolution.

199   Zephyr   2005 Sep 25, 2:32pm  

Stanman,

Social insurance programs do not pay back to each person, and even when they do the return is terrible. Government is terribly inefficient.

Much of what we pay for will never directly benefit us. For example, I pay huge amounts of income tax each year. Much of it goes for welfare. I will never collect anything under welfare.

Jimbo,

The Social Security trust fund is expected to be exhausted in 2042. However, Social Security will not be bankrupt. The ongoing tax receipts at the current rate are expected to fund 75% of the obligations at that time. The trust fund needs to have a large “surplus” in order to fund the expected shortfall arising from the large number of retirees from the baby boom.

Every few years for the last 30 years at least, people have given gloomy forecasts about how the Social Security system would be bankrupt a decade or two later. Every time they have been wrong and their doomsday date keeps being pushed into the future.

There will never be a shortage of Chicken Littles in the world.

200   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 2:47pm  

cluck cluck
peck
cluck
peck
scratch
bawk!

201   Zephyr   2005 Sep 25, 3:09pm  

We have a great healthcare capability in this country. However, we do not get nearly the health improvement for our money as we could.

Other advanced countries get comparable health for a much lower cost.

The major cost difference is that we spend a huge amount of our healthcare resource in the futile effort to keep dying people alive for a few extra months. This “heroic” medicine is extremely expensive, and bloats the fiscal cost of providing healthcare to America.

202   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 3:14pm  

As a former school teacher I can absolutely attest to the fact that kids are waaaaaaaaaaay overmedicated. But just try to suggest to the parent that they check for food alergies or actually pay attention to the kid, well the medication seems to win out more often than not.

Sadly, I've known teachers to contribute to the problem. Sometimes if they have a child that they have discipline problems with, they ride the parent until they get some kind of diagnosis that allows for medication to keep the kid so doped up they can't act up in class. Heaven forbid we actually raise our children rather than farm them out to daycare and medicate them.

One of my big personal gripes.

203   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 3:18pm  

Sacto, too bad we're both married. Seeing eye to eye on raising kids is really high on the list for me . . .

Do you like Bill Clinton?

204   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 3:21pm  

This is the sexiest thing a woman ever said to me . . .

She was about 5'1", hair down to her waist. I had known her all of a week.

I had no take on her whatsoever.

So I come in to work one day and make an oblique reference to Bill Clinton.

She snaps her face over to me, squinting slighly, top lip stiff, and says, in the most dripping venom I have ever heard, "I despise that man."

I was about to fall to my knee and propose, her being a total hottie and all, when I was snapped back to reality by my ring. Oh yeah, I was already married. Se la vi!

205   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 3:28pm  

Escape

You're killing me.

I can't stand Clinton. I also have a great Clinton story.
I worked at a TV show a few years back and one of my co-workers happened to have been a former White House intern. This was pre-Lewinski. Anyway, I asked her what it was like. She told me that Bill Clinton was a charming happy-go-lucky type, but that if there were any attractive women in the West Wing, he couldn't get any work done. They literally moved all the women deemed too attractive to work near him out of the West Wing so he wouldn't be distracted. I guess Lewinski didn't meet the obvious criteria.

She also told me that Hillary was basically a bitch on wheels. Said that Bill's interns were not allowed to address her or even look her in the eye. She would only have anything to do with "her" people.

Just a small glipse into the Clinton era.

206   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 3:50pm  

Yowsers Peggy!

And can I further surmise, oh my heart be still, that you do not simply "dislike" our next president, Hilary, but the thought of her as President makes your skin crawl a titch?

207   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 3:59pm  

And can I further surmise, oh my heart be still, that you do not simply “dislike” our next president, Hilary, but the thought of her as President makes your skin crawl a titch?

Just the thought gives me the heebie jeebies. I'm hoping that because she is not as outgoing (hah!) as her husband, people won't warm to her enough to vote her in. Unfortunately in a world where people vote based on what they see on the Tonight Show, personality seems to be one of the main criteria on which people vote.

208   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 4:07pm  

Yeah, well, I'm on the record a year ago saying she'll win and she'll win easily.

I figure she'll play the Caesar card. She'll wait until the 3 or 4 patsies who come out early have come off their intro momentum. Then, as close to the primaries as possible, she'll announce. She'll dominate the primaries and blow out her comptetition, who will not criticize her and who will fall in line behind her quick enough, hoping to get the VP nod or catch some other scraps that are left in her wake.

She won something like 65% of the NY women vote. Yow. That's a huge number. I figure she wins 60% of the women vote nationally, 45% of the mens, and wins in a blowout, regardless who the opposiiton is.

Funny thing. I hear a lot of women say, "I don't like Hillary and I wouldn't vote for her." Then I ask, "Yeah? What if she was running against [fill in prominent Republican]," to which they always respond, "God, not him!"

So what many many women seem to think is, "I'd love to have a reason not to vote for her." Given that the Republicans have no stand out candidates, I think she wins . . .

easy.

209   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 4:11pm  

I hope you're wrong, but I'm not holding out hope either. I won't vote for her. What if Rudy Giuliani ran? Do you think the lustre from 9/11 could carry him far enough?

210   HARM   2005 Sep 25, 4:18pm  

Given that the Republicans have no stand out candidates, I think she wins . . .

*cough* Jeb?

Personally, I think Rove/RNC wants to keep the Bush juggernaut going as a dynastic thing. First, Jeb in '08 & '12, then maybe Laura as 1st woman President in '16 & '20. That'll warm up the public for the really big surprise in '24 & '28: Jenna & Barbara serving together as co-Presidents (Presidents-gone-Wild!).

211   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 4:22pm  

Jenna & Barbara serving together as co-Presidents (Presidents-gone-Wild!).

lol

Can't you just see the "lost" video tapes that surface during that administration?

212   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 4:26pm  

Well, I don't think any man beats her. That's the funny thing. I think the only hope the right has got is to run a woman. In that way, you don't automatically lose some portion of the vote based on gender.

The way I see it, the few idiot men who would vote against Hilary because of her gender would have voted againt any democrat.
OTOH, the foolish women who will vote for Hilary only because she is a woman are going to be a small but important part of the swing vote.

So if I was asked by the right, I'd say pick your best woman and run with her. Get gender out of the race, and let it be issues based.

But the right loses on issues too. Sure, there's been a conservative swing, but, if it goes how I see it going, the country is going to be swirling in the toilet by 08, and any change will be perceived as a good change.

Whoever in the Republican party wants to be president should be coming out now to speak out against bush . . . and say . . .

end the war,
cut spending,
balance the budget,
get our fiscal house in order - the American family is about to go under. THen you'd look like a prophet instead of a "I can give more handouts than Hilary" johny come lately.

213   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 4:31pm  

end the war,
cut spending,
balance the budget,
get our fiscal house in order - the American family is about to go under. THen you’d look like a prophet instead of a “I can give more handouts than Hilary” johny come lately.

At the end of any administration the pendulum does tend to swing in the opposite direction. I'm not sure the right would need a woman, but Hillary is already known and the gender+recognition factor will be a potent combo. Personally I think most candidates are going to promise the above agenda.... delivery is another matter altogether.

214   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 4:42pm  

OK SactoQT, one more question before I leave my wife for you . . .

What did you think of the following movies . . .

Lost in Translation
Groundhogs Day
Ghost
Razor's Edge

215   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 4:48pm  

Ahhhh, you must be a Bill Murray fan. ( Except Ghost)

Lost in Translation-- haven't seen yet.
Groundhog's Day-- one of the funniest movies ever (liked What About Bob too)
Ghost-- Liked it when I saw it in the theatre, but I remember it being a bit predictable.
Razor's Edge-havent' seen.

216   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 4:52pm  

OK.

If you want me to pack up and move out west, you're going to have to check out the other two movies.

Funny thing is, I was never a Bill Murray fan. I very much dislike him in stupid comedic roles. Everything he did on SNL. Stripes. Ghostbusters. All those, to me, were really crap comedy that anybody with a skosh of talent on coke could do.

But when I saw him in GHD, where he mixes humor with seriousness, I thought he was awesome.

As for LIT and Razor's edge, all I can say is that, compared to most of the crap coming out of HW today, each of those movies is worth a watch.

I remember coming out of LIT and hearing a young woman say, "I didn't get it," and I thought, "how very very sad."

217   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 4:52pm  

As far as movies generally go, I'm kind of goofy. I'm not a girly girl movie wise. I'm an action movie kind of gal. I also like some science fiction, and I'll watch an Indian Jones movie at the drop of a hat. I really liked Batman Begins but I'm not a fan of earlier Batman movies. I like black comedies too. Mr. and Mrs. Smith was hilarious.

218   Peter P   2005 Sep 25, 4:54pm  

Is my wife the only spouse who read this blog?

219   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 5:08pm  

Before you think I'm a complete idiot, here's my take on movies and books (I'm an avid reader too).

I think they should be pretty much pure entertainment. I think my everyday life is tedious enough without my entertainment being that way too. I'll never be an Oprah book club fan because who wants to read some depressing story about a woman who's child drowns and her "journey" after that? I sure don't. Give me a John Sanford good old detective novel and I'm happy. Movies can fit into multiple categories. I like mindless action, it's all in good fun. Drama's have got to be smart but if they're too depressing I tend to tune out. Comedies should be smart too. I'm not a big fan of slapstick.

220   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 5:09pm  

Is my wife the only spouse who read this blog?

It would seem that way. We're just joking, aren't we?

221   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 5:10pm  

Alright, I'm probably gunnuh b takin a powder for a week or two. I can barely see my monitor over the work that's piling up.

What's that Nietze said? Pride at a days work well done is simply a way to keep a man from thinking about things that matter? Something like that. Always loved that quote.

Peter P - Seriously, would your wife mind? If my wife gave me crap about writing on a bulletin board, jeez, that would be too much. Someone that crazy jealous would be tough to deal with.

Good night and take care of your neighbor - even if em doesn't deserve it . . .

222   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 5:11pm  

Oh, you were just joking?

;-)

223   Peter P   2005 Sep 25, 5:13pm  

I like dark movies that are thought-provocative. Here are some of my all time favorites:

The Manchurian Candidate (1962)
The Wicker Man (1973)
Fahrenheit 451 (1966)
Colossus: The Forbin Project (1970)

224   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 5:13pm  

One last thought . . .

I'm a horrible person for finding the following laugh out loud funny . . .

who wants to read some depressing story about a woman who’s child drowns and her “journey” after that?

Bad bad bad man.

225   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 5:14pm  

Nite all.

226   Peter P   2005 Sep 25, 5:14pm  

Peter P - Seriously, would your wife mind? If my wife gave me crap about writing on a bulletin board, jeez, that would be too much. Someone that crazy jealous would be tough to deal with.

I was joking too. ;)

227   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 5:16pm  

I’m a horrible person for finding the following laugh out loud funny . . .

who wants to read some depressing story about a woman who’s child drowns and her “journey” after that?

Bad bad bad man.

I guess I'm worse for having written it. What can I say?

228   Jimbo   2005 Sep 25, 5:22pm  

So we are wandering far afield here, but I really have to ask this question, since I have wondered this for a long time and you two have opinions I respect:

What is it about Bill Clinton that makes you dislike him so?

I don't have particularly strong feelings about him one way or another. I thought he was a decent president, better than average, but not great by any means. I don't particularly like him as a person, but I don't particularly dislike him either. I think he has an unusually strong desire to be liked by people, especially for one as old and successful as he is. I find that a bit sad, even slightly pathetic. Is that it?

I was astonished by the strong personal smear campaign against him. I even grew to feel a bit sorry for him after all the etc..gate, mostly made up attempts, imho, to try and sling mud at him.

I don't think he should have had an affair with Monica Lewinksi, and I think he handled it wrong when it came out. I think he just should have stood on his right to privacy, rather than lying to America about it.

But is there something else, something more visceral? I can certainly understand the visceral thing, since Bush generates an unreasonable loathing in me. I can explain why if you like, but suffice to say that I recognize it as unreasonable and shouldn't really get in my way of my ability to assess his quality as a president, but it does.

229   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 5:27pm  

But is there something else, something more visceral? I can certainly understand the visceral thing, since Bush generates an unreasonable loathing in me. I can explain why if you like, but suffice to say that I recognize it as unreasonable and shouldn’t really get in my way of my ability to assess his quality as a president, but it does.

It was visceral for me. It wasn't as much that he lied but that he was so good at it that was disturbing to me. I also found his ability to cry at opportune moments disturbing. He just always seemed so phony to me. I felt he was more concerned about appearances than reality and I thought he catered his administration to what the polls were saying rather than what was right for the country. Just my opinion.

230   SJ_jim   2005 Sep 25, 5:30pm  

SQT,
Love Sandford books! Not much to brag about but I'm pretty sure I've read every "prey" novel (I don't read much "meaningful" stuff either...except some history of science lit).
Lucas Davenport is the most hilarious detective character I've ever come across.
g'nite.

231   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 11:42pm  

Ok, I was asked, so . . .

First, Bush rubs me the wrong way because I perceive 1.- he lied about Iraq 2.-he ran as a fiscal conservative but he's really a borrow and spend liberal 3.-he puts corporate success before all else. Other than that, I think he's a decent man. I wouldn't choose him as my president, but I would be comfortable with one of my daughters visiting his ranch.

Carter, for example, i liked very much. I consider him to be a fine human being. Miserably incorrect with regards to how to run a government, but that doesn't make me dislike him.

Bill, on the other hand, I find to generally be a dispicable human being. I think he'd sell his grandmother for 10 bucks, and then keep the money and welch on the deal so he can resell her.

He is, put differently, a scoundrel of the worst kind. What gets lost in the whole lewinsky thing is that this guy lies about everything and anything. I loathe liars. The people who support this guy - I can only guess because they find him charming or they like his politics - tend to focus on the whole "privacy issue" of the lewinsky thing. What gets left out and ignored when they do that, however, is the following list of personality flaws . . .

1. The guy lies about everything. He'll lie to Peter to try to get into heavan. He won't. One of my few consolations if I go south when I die is I'm going to have a little fun with Bill.
2. The guy has been involved in so many questionable dealings, it's hard to imagine that the guy is not dirty.
3. The guy seems to have no priciples other than "do what's best for me." Ask the gay community what Bill did for them. Why didn't he help more? Because backing the gays might have cost him reelection. So much for principle.

There's a lot more, but why go on. The man lacks character more than most human beings, and that, to me, is really saying something.
As embarrasses as I am to have Bush as our president, at least I can look at somebody and say, "well, maybe he is no smarter than a well-trained chimp, but he's a decent man who cares about your children."

So if me and Bush, Bush II, Carter, Reagan, lots of ex prezs were in the bush in Vietnam surrounded by Vietcong who we knew were goiing to torture us to death, I'd look over at them and we'd agree we're going down fighting.

Clinton? He'd nod, "yeah DC, we're going down fighting." Then he'd shoot me in the back and try to negotiate with the VC.

I don't know how else to say it. I think the guy did a damn good moderate job as President. He did less damage than either Bush did. But he's a piece of human garbage.

232   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 26, 1:00am  

Can't find the post, but somebody recently posted on one of the primary issues with health care in the US - that old, dying folks are kept alive at a huge expense. Here're some numbers . . .

"For instance, the study found that new pacemakers could cost Medicare and other insurers $1.4 million for every extra year of life they add. In comparison, healthcare economists often use $100,000 per added year of life as the maximum of benefit worth paying by the government insurer. In another example, the study predicted the use of tumor-strangling drugs would mean $498,809 per additional life-year."

Big big numbers.

233   SQT15   2005 Sep 26, 3:51am  

Another thing about Clinton. When I went to school in Japan (pre-Lewinsky) the students I talked to thought it was hilarious that we had Clinton as our president. They would actually laugh when talking about him. This was the first time I got the impression that he was a joke to the rest of the world. Obviously Bush hasn't made a more favorable impression but at least other nations know he'll put his money where his mouth is. They knew Clinton wouldn't.

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