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Oil Shock


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2005 Sep 23, 2:25am   29,241 views  276 comments

by SQT15   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

By Randy H

Oil Shock! It now appears that the US will suffer another severe blow to its oil refining infrastructure. With this being the second major shock to the supply-side of energy in less than a month, and with oil, gas and petrol being major inputs into the US economy, how could this affect the overall US economic situation. Could inflationary energy pressures, rising interest rates, and worsening deficits finally pop the real-estate bubbles in the “frothy” RE markets?

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204   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 3:21pm  

This is the sexiest thing a woman ever said to me . . .

She was about 5'1", hair down to her waist. I had known her all of a week.

I had no take on her whatsoever.

So I come in to work one day and make an oblique reference to Bill Clinton.

She snaps her face over to me, squinting slighly, top lip stiff, and says, in the most dripping venom I have ever heard, "I despise that man."

I was about to fall to my knee and propose, her being a total hottie and all, when I was snapped back to reality by my ring. Oh yeah, I was already married. Se la vi!

205   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 3:28pm  

Escape

You're killing me.

I can't stand Clinton. I also have a great Clinton story.
I worked at a TV show a few years back and one of my co-workers happened to have been a former White House intern. This was pre-Lewinski. Anyway, I asked her what it was like. She told me that Bill Clinton was a charming happy-go-lucky type, but that if there were any attractive women in the West Wing, he couldn't get any work done. They literally moved all the women deemed too attractive to work near him out of the West Wing so he wouldn't be distracted. I guess Lewinski didn't meet the obvious criteria.

She also told me that Hillary was basically a bitch on wheels. Said that Bill's interns were not allowed to address her or even look her in the eye. She would only have anything to do with "her" people.

Just a small glipse into the Clinton era.

206   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 3:50pm  

Yowsers Peggy!

And can I further surmise, oh my heart be still, that you do not simply "dislike" our next president, Hilary, but the thought of her as President makes your skin crawl a titch?

207   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 3:59pm  

And can I further surmise, oh my heart be still, that you do not simply “dislike” our next president, Hilary, but the thought of her as President makes your skin crawl a titch?

Just the thought gives me the heebie jeebies. I'm hoping that because she is not as outgoing (hah!) as her husband, people won't warm to her enough to vote her in. Unfortunately in a world where people vote based on what they see on the Tonight Show, personality seems to be one of the main criteria on which people vote.

208   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 4:07pm  

Yeah, well, I'm on the record a year ago saying she'll win and she'll win easily.

I figure she'll play the Caesar card. She'll wait until the 3 or 4 patsies who come out early have come off their intro momentum. Then, as close to the primaries as possible, she'll announce. She'll dominate the primaries and blow out her comptetition, who will not criticize her and who will fall in line behind her quick enough, hoping to get the VP nod or catch some other scraps that are left in her wake.

She won something like 65% of the NY women vote. Yow. That's a huge number. I figure she wins 60% of the women vote nationally, 45% of the mens, and wins in a blowout, regardless who the opposiiton is.

Funny thing. I hear a lot of women say, "I don't like Hillary and I wouldn't vote for her." Then I ask, "Yeah? What if she was running against [fill in prominent Republican]," to which they always respond, "God, not him!"

So what many many women seem to think is, "I'd love to have a reason not to vote for her." Given that the Republicans have no stand out candidates, I think she wins . . .

easy.

209   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 4:11pm  

I hope you're wrong, but I'm not holding out hope either. I won't vote for her. What if Rudy Giuliani ran? Do you think the lustre from 9/11 could carry him far enough?

210   HARM   2005 Sep 25, 4:18pm  

Given that the Republicans have no stand out candidates, I think she wins . . .

*cough* Jeb?

Personally, I think Rove/RNC wants to keep the Bush juggernaut going as a dynastic thing. First, Jeb in '08 & '12, then maybe Laura as 1st woman President in '16 & '20. That'll warm up the public for the really big surprise in '24 & '28: Jenna & Barbara serving together as co-Presidents (Presidents-gone-Wild!).

211   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 4:22pm  

Jenna & Barbara serving together as co-Presidents (Presidents-gone-Wild!).

lol

Can't you just see the "lost" video tapes that surface during that administration?

212   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 4:26pm  

Well, I don't think any man beats her. That's the funny thing. I think the only hope the right has got is to run a woman. In that way, you don't automatically lose some portion of the vote based on gender.

The way I see it, the few idiot men who would vote against Hilary because of her gender would have voted againt any democrat.
OTOH, the foolish women who will vote for Hilary only because she is a woman are going to be a small but important part of the swing vote.

So if I was asked by the right, I'd say pick your best woman and run with her. Get gender out of the race, and let it be issues based.

But the right loses on issues too. Sure, there's been a conservative swing, but, if it goes how I see it going, the country is going to be swirling in the toilet by 08, and any change will be perceived as a good change.

Whoever in the Republican party wants to be president should be coming out now to speak out against bush . . . and say . . .

end the war,
cut spending,
balance the budget,
get our fiscal house in order - the American family is about to go under. THen you'd look like a prophet instead of a "I can give more handouts than Hilary" johny come lately.

213   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 4:31pm  

end the war,
cut spending,
balance the budget,
get our fiscal house in order - the American family is about to go under. THen you’d look like a prophet instead of a “I can give more handouts than Hilary” johny come lately.

At the end of any administration the pendulum does tend to swing in the opposite direction. I'm not sure the right would need a woman, but Hillary is already known and the gender+recognition factor will be a potent combo. Personally I think most candidates are going to promise the above agenda.... delivery is another matter altogether.

214   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 4:42pm  

OK SactoQT, one more question before I leave my wife for you . . .

What did you think of the following movies . . .

Lost in Translation
Groundhogs Day
Ghost
Razor's Edge

215   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 4:48pm  

Ahhhh, you must be a Bill Murray fan. ( Except Ghost)

Lost in Translation-- haven't seen yet.
Groundhog's Day-- one of the funniest movies ever (liked What About Bob too)
Ghost-- Liked it when I saw it in the theatre, but I remember it being a bit predictable.
Razor's Edge-havent' seen.

216   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 4:52pm  

OK.

If you want me to pack up and move out west, you're going to have to check out the other two movies.

Funny thing is, I was never a Bill Murray fan. I very much dislike him in stupid comedic roles. Everything he did on SNL. Stripes. Ghostbusters. All those, to me, were really crap comedy that anybody with a skosh of talent on coke could do.

But when I saw him in GHD, where he mixes humor with seriousness, I thought he was awesome.

As for LIT and Razor's edge, all I can say is that, compared to most of the crap coming out of HW today, each of those movies is worth a watch.

I remember coming out of LIT and hearing a young woman say, "I didn't get it," and I thought, "how very very sad."

217   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 4:52pm  

As far as movies generally go, I'm kind of goofy. I'm not a girly girl movie wise. I'm an action movie kind of gal. I also like some science fiction, and I'll watch an Indian Jones movie at the drop of a hat. I really liked Batman Begins but I'm not a fan of earlier Batman movies. I like black comedies too. Mr. and Mrs. Smith was hilarious.

218   Peter P   2005 Sep 25, 4:54pm  

Is my wife the only spouse who read this blog?

219   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 5:08pm  

Before you think I'm a complete idiot, here's my take on movies and books (I'm an avid reader too).

I think they should be pretty much pure entertainment. I think my everyday life is tedious enough without my entertainment being that way too. I'll never be an Oprah book club fan because who wants to read some depressing story about a woman who's child drowns and her "journey" after that? I sure don't. Give me a John Sanford good old detective novel and I'm happy. Movies can fit into multiple categories. I like mindless action, it's all in good fun. Drama's have got to be smart but if they're too depressing I tend to tune out. Comedies should be smart too. I'm not a big fan of slapstick.

220   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 5:09pm  

Is my wife the only spouse who read this blog?

It would seem that way. We're just joking, aren't we?

221   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 5:10pm  

Alright, I'm probably gunnuh b takin a powder for a week or two. I can barely see my monitor over the work that's piling up.

What's that Nietze said? Pride at a days work well done is simply a way to keep a man from thinking about things that matter? Something like that. Always loved that quote.

Peter P - Seriously, would your wife mind? If my wife gave me crap about writing on a bulletin board, jeez, that would be too much. Someone that crazy jealous would be tough to deal with.

Good night and take care of your neighbor - even if em doesn't deserve it . . .

222   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 5:11pm  

Oh, you were just joking?

;-)

223   Peter P   2005 Sep 25, 5:13pm  

I like dark movies that are thought-provocative. Here are some of my all time favorites:

The Manchurian Candidate (1962)
The Wicker Man (1973)
Fahrenheit 451 (1966)
Colossus: The Forbin Project (1970)

224   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 5:13pm  

One last thought . . .

I'm a horrible person for finding the following laugh out loud funny . . .

who wants to read some depressing story about a woman who’s child drowns and her “journey” after that?

Bad bad bad man.

225   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 5:14pm  

Nite all.

226   Peter P   2005 Sep 25, 5:14pm  

Peter P - Seriously, would your wife mind? If my wife gave me crap about writing on a bulletin board, jeez, that would be too much. Someone that crazy jealous would be tough to deal with.

I was joking too. ;)

227   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 5:16pm  

I’m a horrible person for finding the following laugh out loud funny . . .

who wants to read some depressing story about a woman who’s child drowns and her “journey” after that?

Bad bad bad man.

I guess I'm worse for having written it. What can I say?

228   Jimbo   2005 Sep 25, 5:22pm  

So we are wandering far afield here, but I really have to ask this question, since I have wondered this for a long time and you two have opinions I respect:

What is it about Bill Clinton that makes you dislike him so?

I don't have particularly strong feelings about him one way or another. I thought he was a decent president, better than average, but not great by any means. I don't particularly like him as a person, but I don't particularly dislike him either. I think he has an unusually strong desire to be liked by people, especially for one as old and successful as he is. I find that a bit sad, even slightly pathetic. Is that it?

I was astonished by the strong personal smear campaign against him. I even grew to feel a bit sorry for him after all the etc..gate, mostly made up attempts, imho, to try and sling mud at him.

I don't think he should have had an affair with Monica Lewinksi, and I think he handled it wrong when it came out. I think he just should have stood on his right to privacy, rather than lying to America about it.

But is there something else, something more visceral? I can certainly understand the visceral thing, since Bush generates an unreasonable loathing in me. I can explain why if you like, but suffice to say that I recognize it as unreasonable and shouldn't really get in my way of my ability to assess his quality as a president, but it does.

229   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 5:27pm  

But is there something else, something more visceral? I can certainly understand the visceral thing, since Bush generates an unreasonable loathing in me. I can explain why if you like, but suffice to say that I recognize it as unreasonable and shouldn’t really get in my way of my ability to assess his quality as a president, but it does.

It was visceral for me. It wasn't as much that he lied but that he was so good at it that was disturbing to me. I also found his ability to cry at opportune moments disturbing. He just always seemed so phony to me. I felt he was more concerned about appearances than reality and I thought he catered his administration to what the polls were saying rather than what was right for the country. Just my opinion.

230   SJ_jim   2005 Sep 25, 5:30pm  

SQT,
Love Sandford books! Not much to brag about but I'm pretty sure I've read every "prey" novel (I don't read much "meaningful" stuff either...except some history of science lit).
Lucas Davenport is the most hilarious detective character I've ever come across.
g'nite.

231   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 11:42pm  

Ok, I was asked, so . . .

First, Bush rubs me the wrong way because I perceive 1.- he lied about Iraq 2.-he ran as a fiscal conservative but he's really a borrow and spend liberal 3.-he puts corporate success before all else. Other than that, I think he's a decent man. I wouldn't choose him as my president, but I would be comfortable with one of my daughters visiting his ranch.

Carter, for example, i liked very much. I consider him to be a fine human being. Miserably incorrect with regards to how to run a government, but that doesn't make me dislike him.

Bill, on the other hand, I find to generally be a dispicable human being. I think he'd sell his grandmother for 10 bucks, and then keep the money and welch on the deal so he can resell her.

He is, put differently, a scoundrel of the worst kind. What gets lost in the whole lewinsky thing is that this guy lies about everything and anything. I loathe liars. The people who support this guy - I can only guess because they find him charming or they like his politics - tend to focus on the whole "privacy issue" of the lewinsky thing. What gets left out and ignored when they do that, however, is the following list of personality flaws . . .

1. The guy lies about everything. He'll lie to Peter to try to get into heavan. He won't. One of my few consolations if I go south when I die is I'm going to have a little fun with Bill.
2. The guy has been involved in so many questionable dealings, it's hard to imagine that the guy is not dirty.
3. The guy seems to have no priciples other than "do what's best for me." Ask the gay community what Bill did for them. Why didn't he help more? Because backing the gays might have cost him reelection. So much for principle.

There's a lot more, but why go on. The man lacks character more than most human beings, and that, to me, is really saying something.
As embarrasses as I am to have Bush as our president, at least I can look at somebody and say, "well, maybe he is no smarter than a well-trained chimp, but he's a decent man who cares about your children."

So if me and Bush, Bush II, Carter, Reagan, lots of ex prezs were in the bush in Vietnam surrounded by Vietcong who we knew were goiing to torture us to death, I'd look over at them and we'd agree we're going down fighting.

Clinton? He'd nod, "yeah DC, we're going down fighting." Then he'd shoot me in the back and try to negotiate with the VC.

I don't know how else to say it. I think the guy did a damn good moderate job as President. He did less damage than either Bush did. But he's a piece of human garbage.

232   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 26, 1:00am  

Can't find the post, but somebody recently posted on one of the primary issues with health care in the US - that old, dying folks are kept alive at a huge expense. Here're some numbers . . .

"For instance, the study found that new pacemakers could cost Medicare and other insurers $1.4 million for every extra year of life they add. In comparison, healthcare economists often use $100,000 per added year of life as the maximum of benefit worth paying by the government insurer. In another example, the study predicted the use of tumor-strangling drugs would mean $498,809 per additional life-year."

Big big numbers.

233   SQT15   2005 Sep 26, 3:51am  

Another thing about Clinton. When I went to school in Japan (pre-Lewinsky) the students I talked to thought it was hilarious that we had Clinton as our president. They would actually laugh when talking about him. This was the first time I got the impression that he was a joke to the rest of the world. Obviously Bush hasn't made a more favorable impression but at least other nations know he'll put his money where his mouth is. They knew Clinton wouldn't.

234   Peter P   2005 Sep 26, 3:55am  

Many people dislike Bush because of the war in Iraq. However, they should be reminded that the war in Kosovo under Clinton was illegal.

235   SQT15   2005 Sep 26, 3:59am  

I also have to address my earlier post before everyone thinks I have no heart.

who wants to read some depressing story about a woman who’s child drowns and her “journey” after that?

The reason I can't read something like this is that it hits too close to home. I don't want to stay up all night weeping over a fictitious story that makes me think "what if this happened to my child?" Oprah always has books that are about "life journeys" and they usually involve humans treating eachother in the worst ways humanly possible. I'm sorry but that's not entertainment to me. If I am going to spend some time winding down with a book or movie I want it to make me forget the things that depress me. I hope that makes sense.

236   SQT15   2005 Sep 26, 4:07am  

I actually don't think Bush lied. Maybe that makes me naive. But does anyone really think Saddam was the kind of guy who would give up anything just because the US told him to? How long did we spend waiting while the UN inspectors went in and out of Iraq-- long enough for Saddam to ship anything he didn't want us to find out of the country. Syria has been a pretty open ally, do you think they wouldn't agree to hide weapons for Saddam? I think they would. I also watched an interview with a nuclear scientist who said Saddam tortured him in order to coerce him into building him a nuclear bomb. I don't think the guy was making it up.

I also read another book (I'll have to look up which one) that documented incidences of UN inspectors giving the all clear to facilities in Iraq that were later found to have been producing Anthrax. When confronted with it Saddam basically shrugged and went "my bad." The guy repeatedly did whatever the hell he wanted to and thumbed his nose at the US because he knew Russia and Germany, who had all kinds of deals going with him that benefitted them financially, would try to keep the US out of Iraq, and that's exactly what they did.

I gotta go now, but I'll try to find some of the sources I've read on the subject.

237   SQT15   2005 Sep 26, 7:38am  

Don’t you think we would have found SOMETHING there? Just seems strange that we’ve basically found nothing, not a trace (or so it would seem).

From what I've read there were UN inspectors who were from countries that were doing back-door deals with Saddam and basically encouraged to look the other way. I'm not saying all the inspectors were dirty, but I understand that there were times when there were chemical and biological weapons being produced but the inspectors claimed to find nothing. After the US entered, who can say?

I guess it boils down to what we believe in our guts. I believe Saddam is evil and that we have seen proof enough of what he is capable of doing. I just don't believe he would give up weapons once he had his hands on them.

Do I think the Bush administration made the threat seem much more imminent than it was? Yes I do? Do I think the world is a better place without Saddam in power? Yes.

238   Peter P   2005 Sep 26, 7:41am  

Do I think the world is a better place without Saddam in power? Yes.

Is Saddam evil? Yes. Is the world better without him? I do not know. What if someone more evil somehow took his place because of a power vacuum?

That said, I do not blame Bush for this war in particular.

239   SQT15   2005 Sep 26, 8:01am  

Is Saddam evil? Yes. Is the world better without him? I do not know. What if someone more evil somehow took his place because of a power vacuum?

Yeah, always a potential for that. I'm just glad Saddam's son's can't take power.

240   Peter P   2005 Sep 26, 8:03am  

I’m just glad Saddam’s son’s can’t take power.

Absolutely. I worried a lot more about Uday than Saddam himself.

241   Peter P   2005 Sep 26, 8:09am  

Yeah, I agree, I’m VERY interested to see what comes of the whole mess with Annan’s son, not because I’m anti-UN, but because a good Enron/Worldcom shakeout is good for all in the end.

I am not anti-UN because there is no need to oppose a rubber stamp.

There’s one thing that I think separates the value of overthrowing Iraq from, say, the value of overthrowing brutal leaders in Sudan, Rwanda, etc, and that thing is oil.

Sadly, we will see more and more global conflicts due to resources like oil.

242   SQT15   2005 Sep 26, 8:14am  

Sleepless

Excellent excellent points. It's always made me uncomfortable when we go to war to overthrow one evil leader and ignore atrocities committed elsewhere. You are absolutely right that there has to be another motivation. Bush claimed it was an imminent threat to the US, others say oil.

One question, how does the war benefit us in regards to oil? I honestly have never heard it spelled out in a way that makes it beneficial for the US to spend so much and what the returns might be.

243   surfer-x   2005 Sep 26, 8:18am  

There was an excellent PBS documentary on the subject, basically the invasion is part of the "Bush Doctrine". A wholesale remaking of the middle east. It is similiar to the old dominio theory of commie expansion.

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