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Oil Shock


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2005 Sep 23, 2:25am   29,074 views  276 comments

by SQT15   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

By Randy H

Oil Shock! It now appears that the US will suffer another severe blow to its oil refining infrastructure. With this being the second major shock to the supply-side of energy in less than a month, and with oil, gas and petrol being major inputs into the US economy, how could this affect the overall US economic situation. Could inflationary energy pressures, rising interest rates, and worsening deficits finally pop the real-estate bubbles in the “frothy” RE markets?

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213   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 4:31pm  

end the war,
cut spending,
balance the budget,
get our fiscal house in order - the American family is about to go under. THen you’d look like a prophet instead of a “I can give more handouts than Hilary” johny come lately.

At the end of any administration the pendulum does tend to swing in the opposite direction. I'm not sure the right would need a woman, but Hillary is already known and the gender+recognition factor will be a potent combo. Personally I think most candidates are going to promise the above agenda.... delivery is another matter altogether.

214   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 4:42pm  

OK SactoQT, one more question before I leave my wife for you . . .

What did you think of the following movies . . .

Lost in Translation
Groundhogs Day
Ghost
Razor's Edge

215   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 4:48pm  

Ahhhh, you must be a Bill Murray fan. ( Except Ghost)

Lost in Translation-- haven't seen yet.
Groundhog's Day-- one of the funniest movies ever (liked What About Bob too)
Ghost-- Liked it when I saw it in the theatre, but I remember it being a bit predictable.
Razor's Edge-havent' seen.

216   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 4:52pm  

OK.

If you want me to pack up and move out west, you're going to have to check out the other two movies.

Funny thing is, I was never a Bill Murray fan. I very much dislike him in stupid comedic roles. Everything he did on SNL. Stripes. Ghostbusters. All those, to me, were really crap comedy that anybody with a skosh of talent on coke could do.

But when I saw him in GHD, where he mixes humor with seriousness, I thought he was awesome.

As for LIT and Razor's edge, all I can say is that, compared to most of the crap coming out of HW today, each of those movies is worth a watch.

I remember coming out of LIT and hearing a young woman say, "I didn't get it," and I thought, "how very very sad."

217   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 4:52pm  

As far as movies generally go, I'm kind of goofy. I'm not a girly girl movie wise. I'm an action movie kind of gal. I also like some science fiction, and I'll watch an Indian Jones movie at the drop of a hat. I really liked Batman Begins but I'm not a fan of earlier Batman movies. I like black comedies too. Mr. and Mrs. Smith was hilarious.

218   Peter P   2005 Sep 25, 4:54pm  

Is my wife the only spouse who read this blog?

219   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 5:08pm  

Before you think I'm a complete idiot, here's my take on movies and books (I'm an avid reader too).

I think they should be pretty much pure entertainment. I think my everyday life is tedious enough without my entertainment being that way too. I'll never be an Oprah book club fan because who wants to read some depressing story about a woman who's child drowns and her "journey" after that? I sure don't. Give me a John Sanford good old detective novel and I'm happy. Movies can fit into multiple categories. I like mindless action, it's all in good fun. Drama's have got to be smart but if they're too depressing I tend to tune out. Comedies should be smart too. I'm not a big fan of slapstick.

220   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 5:09pm  

Is my wife the only spouse who read this blog?

It would seem that way. We're just joking, aren't we?

221   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 5:10pm  

Alright, I'm probably gunnuh b takin a powder for a week or two. I can barely see my monitor over the work that's piling up.

What's that Nietze said? Pride at a days work well done is simply a way to keep a man from thinking about things that matter? Something like that. Always loved that quote.

Peter P - Seriously, would your wife mind? If my wife gave me crap about writing on a bulletin board, jeez, that would be too much. Someone that crazy jealous would be tough to deal with.

Good night and take care of your neighbor - even if em doesn't deserve it . . .

222   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 5:11pm  

Oh, you were just joking?

;-)

223   Peter P   2005 Sep 25, 5:13pm  

I like dark movies that are thought-provocative. Here are some of my all time favorites:

The Manchurian Candidate (1962)
The Wicker Man (1973)
Fahrenheit 451 (1966)
Colossus: The Forbin Project (1970)

224   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 5:13pm  

One last thought . . .

I'm a horrible person for finding the following laugh out loud funny . . .

who wants to read some depressing story about a woman who’s child drowns and her “journey” after that?

Bad bad bad man.

225   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 5:14pm  

Nite all.

226   Peter P   2005 Sep 25, 5:14pm  

Peter P - Seriously, would your wife mind? If my wife gave me crap about writing on a bulletin board, jeez, that would be too much. Someone that crazy jealous would be tough to deal with.

I was joking too. ;)

227   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 5:16pm  

I’m a horrible person for finding the following laugh out loud funny . . .

who wants to read some depressing story about a woman who’s child drowns and her “journey” after that?

Bad bad bad man.

I guess I'm worse for having written it. What can I say?

228   Jimbo   2005 Sep 25, 5:22pm  

So we are wandering far afield here, but I really have to ask this question, since I have wondered this for a long time and you two have opinions I respect:

What is it about Bill Clinton that makes you dislike him so?

I don't have particularly strong feelings about him one way or another. I thought he was a decent president, better than average, but not great by any means. I don't particularly like him as a person, but I don't particularly dislike him either. I think he has an unusually strong desire to be liked by people, especially for one as old and successful as he is. I find that a bit sad, even slightly pathetic. Is that it?

I was astonished by the strong personal smear campaign against him. I even grew to feel a bit sorry for him after all the etc..gate, mostly made up attempts, imho, to try and sling mud at him.

I don't think he should have had an affair with Monica Lewinksi, and I think he handled it wrong when it came out. I think he just should have stood on his right to privacy, rather than lying to America about it.

But is there something else, something more visceral? I can certainly understand the visceral thing, since Bush generates an unreasonable loathing in me. I can explain why if you like, but suffice to say that I recognize it as unreasonable and shouldn't really get in my way of my ability to assess his quality as a president, but it does.

229   SQT15   2005 Sep 25, 5:27pm  

But is there something else, something more visceral? I can certainly understand the visceral thing, since Bush generates an unreasonable loathing in me. I can explain why if you like, but suffice to say that I recognize it as unreasonable and shouldn’t really get in my way of my ability to assess his quality as a president, but it does.

It was visceral for me. It wasn't as much that he lied but that he was so good at it that was disturbing to me. I also found his ability to cry at opportune moments disturbing. He just always seemed so phony to me. I felt he was more concerned about appearances than reality and I thought he catered his administration to what the polls were saying rather than what was right for the country. Just my opinion.

230   SJ_jim   2005 Sep 25, 5:30pm  

SQT,
Love Sandford books! Not much to brag about but I'm pretty sure I've read every "prey" novel (I don't read much "meaningful" stuff either...except some history of science lit).
Lucas Davenport is the most hilarious detective character I've ever come across.
g'nite.

231   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 11:42pm  

Ok, I was asked, so . . .

First, Bush rubs me the wrong way because I perceive 1.- he lied about Iraq 2.-he ran as a fiscal conservative but he's really a borrow and spend liberal 3.-he puts corporate success before all else. Other than that, I think he's a decent man. I wouldn't choose him as my president, but I would be comfortable with one of my daughters visiting his ranch.

Carter, for example, i liked very much. I consider him to be a fine human being. Miserably incorrect with regards to how to run a government, but that doesn't make me dislike him.

Bill, on the other hand, I find to generally be a dispicable human being. I think he'd sell his grandmother for 10 bucks, and then keep the money and welch on the deal so he can resell her.

He is, put differently, a scoundrel of the worst kind. What gets lost in the whole lewinsky thing is that this guy lies about everything and anything. I loathe liars. The people who support this guy - I can only guess because they find him charming or they like his politics - tend to focus on the whole "privacy issue" of the lewinsky thing. What gets left out and ignored when they do that, however, is the following list of personality flaws . . .

1. The guy lies about everything. He'll lie to Peter to try to get into heavan. He won't. One of my few consolations if I go south when I die is I'm going to have a little fun with Bill.
2. The guy has been involved in so many questionable dealings, it's hard to imagine that the guy is not dirty.
3. The guy seems to have no priciples other than "do what's best for me." Ask the gay community what Bill did for them. Why didn't he help more? Because backing the gays might have cost him reelection. So much for principle.

There's a lot more, but why go on. The man lacks character more than most human beings, and that, to me, is really saying something.
As embarrasses as I am to have Bush as our president, at least I can look at somebody and say, "well, maybe he is no smarter than a well-trained chimp, but he's a decent man who cares about your children."

So if me and Bush, Bush II, Carter, Reagan, lots of ex prezs were in the bush in Vietnam surrounded by Vietcong who we knew were goiing to torture us to death, I'd look over at them and we'd agree we're going down fighting.

Clinton? He'd nod, "yeah DC, we're going down fighting." Then he'd shoot me in the back and try to negotiate with the VC.

I don't know how else to say it. I think the guy did a damn good moderate job as President. He did less damage than either Bush did. But he's a piece of human garbage.

232   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 26, 1:00am  

Can't find the post, but somebody recently posted on one of the primary issues with health care in the US - that old, dying folks are kept alive at a huge expense. Here're some numbers . . .

"For instance, the study found that new pacemakers could cost Medicare and other insurers $1.4 million for every extra year of life they add. In comparison, healthcare economists often use $100,000 per added year of life as the maximum of benefit worth paying by the government insurer. In another example, the study predicted the use of tumor-strangling drugs would mean $498,809 per additional life-year."

Big big numbers.

233   SQT15   2005 Sep 26, 3:51am  

Another thing about Clinton. When I went to school in Japan (pre-Lewinsky) the students I talked to thought it was hilarious that we had Clinton as our president. They would actually laugh when talking about him. This was the first time I got the impression that he was a joke to the rest of the world. Obviously Bush hasn't made a more favorable impression but at least other nations know he'll put his money where his mouth is. They knew Clinton wouldn't.

234   Peter P   2005 Sep 26, 3:55am  

Many people dislike Bush because of the war in Iraq. However, they should be reminded that the war in Kosovo under Clinton was illegal.

235   SQT15   2005 Sep 26, 3:59am  

I also have to address my earlier post before everyone thinks I have no heart.

who wants to read some depressing story about a woman who’s child drowns and her “journey” after that?

The reason I can't read something like this is that it hits too close to home. I don't want to stay up all night weeping over a fictitious story that makes me think "what if this happened to my child?" Oprah always has books that are about "life journeys" and they usually involve humans treating eachother in the worst ways humanly possible. I'm sorry but that's not entertainment to me. If I am going to spend some time winding down with a book or movie I want it to make me forget the things that depress me. I hope that makes sense.

236   SQT15   2005 Sep 26, 4:07am  

I actually don't think Bush lied. Maybe that makes me naive. But does anyone really think Saddam was the kind of guy who would give up anything just because the US told him to? How long did we spend waiting while the UN inspectors went in and out of Iraq-- long enough for Saddam to ship anything he didn't want us to find out of the country. Syria has been a pretty open ally, do you think they wouldn't agree to hide weapons for Saddam? I think they would. I also watched an interview with a nuclear scientist who said Saddam tortured him in order to coerce him into building him a nuclear bomb. I don't think the guy was making it up.

I also read another book (I'll have to look up which one) that documented incidences of UN inspectors giving the all clear to facilities in Iraq that were later found to have been producing Anthrax. When confronted with it Saddam basically shrugged and went "my bad." The guy repeatedly did whatever the hell he wanted to and thumbed his nose at the US because he knew Russia and Germany, who had all kinds of deals going with him that benefitted them financially, would try to keep the US out of Iraq, and that's exactly what they did.

I gotta go now, but I'll try to find some of the sources I've read on the subject.

237   SQT15   2005 Sep 26, 7:38am  

Don’t you think we would have found SOMETHING there? Just seems strange that we’ve basically found nothing, not a trace (or so it would seem).

From what I've read there were UN inspectors who were from countries that were doing back-door deals with Saddam and basically encouraged to look the other way. I'm not saying all the inspectors were dirty, but I understand that there were times when there were chemical and biological weapons being produced but the inspectors claimed to find nothing. After the US entered, who can say?

I guess it boils down to what we believe in our guts. I believe Saddam is evil and that we have seen proof enough of what he is capable of doing. I just don't believe he would give up weapons once he had his hands on them.

Do I think the Bush administration made the threat seem much more imminent than it was? Yes I do? Do I think the world is a better place without Saddam in power? Yes.

238   Peter P   2005 Sep 26, 7:41am  

Do I think the world is a better place without Saddam in power? Yes.

Is Saddam evil? Yes. Is the world better without him? I do not know. What if someone more evil somehow took his place because of a power vacuum?

That said, I do not blame Bush for this war in particular.

239   SQT15   2005 Sep 26, 8:01am  

Is Saddam evil? Yes. Is the world better without him? I do not know. What if someone more evil somehow took his place because of a power vacuum?

Yeah, always a potential for that. I'm just glad Saddam's son's can't take power.

240   Peter P   2005 Sep 26, 8:03am  

I’m just glad Saddam’s son’s can’t take power.

Absolutely. I worried a lot more about Uday than Saddam himself.

241   Peter P   2005 Sep 26, 8:09am  

Yeah, I agree, I’m VERY interested to see what comes of the whole mess with Annan’s son, not because I’m anti-UN, but because a good Enron/Worldcom shakeout is good for all in the end.

I am not anti-UN because there is no need to oppose a rubber stamp.

There’s one thing that I think separates the value of overthrowing Iraq from, say, the value of overthrowing brutal leaders in Sudan, Rwanda, etc, and that thing is oil.

Sadly, we will see more and more global conflicts due to resources like oil.

242   SQT15   2005 Sep 26, 8:14am  

Sleepless

Excellent excellent points. It's always made me uncomfortable when we go to war to overthrow one evil leader and ignore atrocities committed elsewhere. You are absolutely right that there has to be another motivation. Bush claimed it was an imminent threat to the US, others say oil.

One question, how does the war benefit us in regards to oil? I honestly have never heard it spelled out in a way that makes it beneficial for the US to spend so much and what the returns might be.

243   surfer-x   2005 Sep 26, 8:18am  

There was an excellent PBS documentary on the subject, basically the invasion is part of the "Bush Doctrine". A wholesale remaking of the middle east. It is similiar to the old dominio theory of commie expansion.

244   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 26, 8:39am  

Look, the point was already made, I just reiterate.

We aren't in Iraq to be the good guys. There are plenty of places where goodness is needed. There are sex slaves in Thailand. There are regular slaves in africa. There are child laborers in China. There are mass ethnic killings in Africa.

Even if I swallowed the big pill and concluded the guy didn't exagerate/lie to us to get us into war in the Middle East, I still think "WMD" was no reason to go.

Hussein didn't want anything other than to stay in power and get fat. He wasn't a threat to us. Just my opinion.

With regards to McCain - Saw him in Hartford about 6 years ago. The guy was great in person. I liked this quote . . .
"Remember what Chairman Mao always says . . . It's always darkest before it's absolutely black."

I like McCain. If he teams with Hillary, they could beat Reagan and FDR.

One problem I have with the guy is during his last campaign he freely used the word "gook" around reporters. I don't think that's ok, regardless of your honorable military past.

To tie in to the clinton/bush thoughts - McCain is an honorable man, and for that I will find him more tolerable than most.

245   surfer-x   2005 Sep 26, 8:42am  

While I am not condoning Sen. McCain's slur, I think that his time in the Hanoi Hilton gives him a bit of leeway on using it. My Grandfather could never refer to the Japanese as anything other than japs or even worse, nips. I think when one is tortured by another group it clouds your feelings for said group, forever.

246   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 26, 8:43am  

"One question, how does the war benefit us in regards to oil?"

People like me see Iraq as our warning shot over the bow to the rest of the world.

Our govt. knows that the end of cheap oil is near. They further know that our greatest vulnerability as a nation is energy. Certainly the current oil/gas/ngas prices support that.

Japan had the same issue when they attacked us - they knew we would choke off their resources and they'd lose.

So one view - mine - is that Iraq was our way of saying to the world - "when the shit gets tight, the line starts right here, behind us." I read that in some article, and I think it's right.

That's what really bugs me about the whole war -the pretense - we're their to protect our economy, not to rescue Iraqis.

247   surfer-x   2005 Sep 26, 8:50am  

Japan had the same issue when they attacked us - they knew we would choke off their resources and they’d lose.

Actually, that's why they attacked us. We cut off their scrap metal and oil.

248   Peter P   2005 Sep 26, 8:51am  

“Remember what Chairman Mao always says . . . It’s always darkest before it’s absolutely black.”

Mao did have ome wisdom.

I don’t present this as be-all, end-all evidence, but I really feel this administration is bordering on Imperialism. Imperialists tend to get their asses handed to them - Romans, Spanish, British, you name it.

I wonder what Mao would say...

249   Peter P   2005 Sep 26, 10:03am  

If the Chinese decide, “hey, we want that oil” and invade, our defense mechanism is already well in place. This could get REAL interesting in the next 5-10 years…….

It will get very interesting...

Interesting times we live in!

250   SQT15   2005 Sep 26, 11:15am  

Thanks for so many great answers to my question. Definitely a lot to think about.

251   SQT15   2005 Sep 26, 2:27pm  

I think the parties we have right now are not particularly working for most people. But the Independant party hasn't gathered steam either. I'm not sure what the answer is. I think Hillary is trying to portray herself as a moderate because she knows that the majority of the country desires a moderate candidate. The big problem is that a candidate can run as a moderate and then show their true colors once they're in office. I think the system could use some tweaking, but I'm not super savvy politically and don't even know where to begin.

252   SQT15   2005 Sep 26, 2:56pm  

I must admit I never realized McCain was so popular. I knew that he was respected but since he didn't get the nomination I just figured his numbers weren't as high--- that sort of thing. My father-in-law also flew in Vietnam, thank God he never got shot down. He gave my husband a book on McCain, now I'm going to have to read it. Maybe it's time for some kind of grassroots movement to get McCain into office.......

If he's the real deal, and he seems to be, then we are overdue for someone like that in office.

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