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Rising Inventory - How much is too much?


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2005 Sep 25, 12:23am   22,336 views  167 comments

by Sentinel78   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

I live in Reston, Virginia, a short ride outside of Washington, D.C. On April 19th, 2005 I visited a FSBO townhouse with an asking price of $375,000, which sold in 2001 to the present owners (if they haven't sold it yet) for $115,000. This finally convinced me that prices were truly out of whack. On that day there were 82 units on the market in my town.

I've been watching inventory steadily rise, and the MLS currently lists 409 units, nearly 500% of what was offered for sale 5 months ago.

Now, I hear that, to one degree or another, increases in inventory and slowdowns in sales are typical after the Spring, and I didn't obsessively keep track of the market until this year.

How out of whack is this change? What's "normal"? I don't trust the months-of-inventory averages the realtors post because I notice houses being pulled from the MLS and relisted and I believe this counts as "two" listings where the first pulled listing is counted as "sold". So is this indicating that investors are dumping their stock on the market? What about in your towns, anyone noticing anything similar?

#housing

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155   KurtS   2005 Sep 26, 12:53pm  

It was the general consensus that one could not expect much more than 3 to 5 percent appreciation into the forseeable future.

Yeah...that seems to be the number I run into. 5% is a generous long-term rate, given there's often flat spots/small downturns. Btw, have you ever tried this...take a local property value from the mid/late 90s, tacking on a generous 5% per year into 2005...and what do you get? As I mentioned before--big difference!

Oh btw--any news from that open house in your area this weekend?

156   praetorian   2005 Sep 26, 1:22pm  

the first which will tax you to death and the latter which will just death you to death.

Oh, what a delightful turn of phrase.

Well played! Well played!

Cheers,
prat

157   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 26, 1:39pm  

"the first which will tax you to death and the latter which will just death you to death."

Useful that.

158   Zephyr   2005 Sep 26, 2:21pm  

The US Government imposes no material restrictions on US citizens investing abroad. There are no limitations to amount or type of investment that I know of, and I have made foreign investments personally and for various US corporations. I have participated or led the formation of many foreign companies by US citizens and US corporations.

We had major name accounting and legal firms to assure that we complied with all US laws. The US laws were minimal and totally non-restrictive to our formation and investment. In fact, it was actually easier to incorporate and comply with US tax law as a foreign company than if we were incorporating in the US.

The US does make it hard to renounce your citizenship for the purpose of no longer paying US income tax. To do this you must pay what amounts to an exit tax, and I believe you must continue to pay US income tax for five years after you begin this process. I am not sure about these specifics, just what I recall from informal sources.

If a person decides to simply not pay their income taxes and leave the country to avoid prosecution, then they will be exposed to the nasty consequences described in some earlier posts.

159   Zephyr   2005 Sep 26, 2:30pm  

US tax laws and tax rates actually give foreign companies an advantage over US domiciled companies selling in the US. The law of unintended consequences is causing our capital to flee the country. It is not obvious to everyone yet. But it is happening now.

160   Peter P   2005 Sep 26, 2:36pm  

The US does make it hard to renounce your citizenship for the purpose of no longer paying US income tax. To do this you must pay what amounts to an exit tax, and I believe you must continue to pay US income tax for five years after you begin this process. I am not sure about these specifics, just what I recall from informal sources.

This is what I thought. Thanks for the clarification.

I believe anyone who has renounced his/her citizenship for tax purpose is inadmissible under US immigration laws.

(Not legal advice)

161   Peter P   2005 Sep 26, 2:59pm  

I’m amazed about how many people on this site regard Cali as a prime area to live. I grew up in Australia where I met my American wife and moved to the BA about 5 years ago. It was the biggest let down in my life. California is way over hyped.

Hence Cali-phonier.

162   SQT15   2005 Sep 26, 3:01pm  

Tim--------

Nail
------
Head

163   Zephyr   2005 Sep 26, 3:04pm  

1995 is an artificially low starting point for any comparison. If you want to test today’s market against the bottom, I guess it works, but measuring the rise from the rock bottom will tell you nothing about the reasonableness of today’s prices. Another comparison is to test today’s prices against the last peak to see how the breaking point of 1989 compares to today.

164   Peter P   2005 Sep 27, 4:41am  

Stanman, good summary.

Now it is a Socialist Democrat state.

Very true.

165   OO   2005 Sep 27, 11:48am  

Tim,

no offence. I have quite a few close relatives in Oz. I love Oz, but, as compared to the Bay Area, here are why I would rather be here:

1) Oz has no big mountains, because your land is more ancient, most mountains are eroded down to nothing short of a flat pancake, with the exception of the Northern Queensland area, which is just as humid as Florida.
2) East Coast Oz has a relatively narrow band of weather zone, and hence flora and fauna.
3) Too many poisonous insects and snakes down under. You guys have 9 of the world's top 10 killer snakes, and even sharks in the river! Speaking of the beach scene, did you forget to mention the stingers that kill in a matter of seconds? We have colder and foggier sea, that I admit, but man, that stinger jellyfish scares the hell outta me.
4) The worst of all, the Oz tax system. CA is quite bad, but compared to Oz, we a quite a few notch better. Oz essentially wants to make sure nobody gets rich and everyone is as equal humans can ever be, speaking of a democratic socialist state!

Aside from that, I love Oz and I vacation down under almost every year.

166   Peter P   2005 Sep 27, 11:52am  

Also, California is the only state with a grizzly bear on its flag.

167   OO   2005 Sep 30, 12:53pm  

Let the people leave, let the people come. We Californians don't need to worry about people who don't want to be a part of us. We only need to care about people who will stay to be a part of the solution.

Similarly, those who left California should never look back and move on with their happy life instead of questioning and looking for schaden freude. Life is short, enjoy whatever path you take.

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