patrick.net

grywlfbg says

Deflationary depression here we come.

It is pure common sense, how can we go the other way with such a massive load of debt. I just don't get it.

bubblesitter says

grywlfbg says

Deflationary depression here we come.

It is pure common sense, how can we go the other way with such a massive load of debt. I just don't get it.

This is what Charles Hugh Smith has been preaching.
http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

Cui Bono?

I think the title is a bit too dramatic for this thread. It ain't even depression we have.

grywlfbg says

When thinking about hyperinflation, remember that this is a political event. The Fed cannot cause hyperinflation, only Congress can. And let's think about who owns most of the debt. That's right, rich people. What happens during hyperinflation? Debts are paid back with worthless dollars. Rich people do not want to lose their assets and rich people control the govt. Therefore we will not have hyperinflation. Instead we have calls for "austerity" so the rich people will be paid their money.

Deflationary depression here we come.

Don't take it from me. I'm just an average Joe behind a computer. Peter Schiff and Marc Faber thinks it's very possible we will see hyperinflation.

John Williams from Shadow Stats also thinks it's eventually a 100% certainty.

I do believe we can see a massive deflationary collapse before and/or after hyperinflation. To say hyperinflation can not happen in the US is simply incorrect. It can happen but we don't know if it will.

Peter Schiff: Dollar hyperinflation is coming unless policy direction is rapidly changed
http://www.cobdencentre.org/2010/10/peter-schiff-dollar-hyperinflation-is-coming-unless-policy-direction-is-rapidly-changed/

Marc Faber - 100% Sure We Will Have Hyperinflation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7r9o3jmyoaA

You can easily find dozens of 'investment advisers' who will tell you what you want to hear. Just like religion, join the one promising life ever after! haha.

I don't trust the ones who never reverse course and constantly pitch the same line. Such as 'buy gold!' (ok that was a good one, but now it seems to be topping?)

Kunsler is a good writer but a useless doomer peddling books IMO (he predicted end of world from the Y2k Bug hahaha what a dope!)

Schiff I don't trust due to his fathers life of legal convictions - jail? - according to rumor - and who was also an 'financial adviser' or so the rumors are (wesley snipes scenario?).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irwin_Schiff

Mish I don't trust - always 100% negative? And political rants are useless. But I like reading him.

I do like that guy from iTulip - Eric Janzen?. And I like Charles Hugh Smith - but they are confirming what I want to believe - dangerous. Must read everything and consider all possibilities then hedge accordingly right?

Really - I don't trust anyone! I do like Robert Campbell for RE investment but thats a small niche now since free EZ $ is gone.

Did anyone see Moody's credit downgrade coming? Well, I can honestly tell you I knew it was almost a 100% guarantee it would happen this decade. It happened much sooner than I thought. More downgrades are coming down the pipe (just like Greece). Let's just say that this country is going under and too bad the majority out there are still asleep and in denial. Just give it a few more months and you will see the next big leg down in the US economy take place. I hope I'm wrong but I'm afraid I won't be

HousingBoom says

Don't take it from me. I'm just an average Joe behind a computer. Peter Schiff

Those guys you quoted don't have perfect prognostication records.

I fully believe the system would tolerate the Fed repeating another dose of wage-price inflation like what we got 1970-1980:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1GW

However, I think few people actually understand what the 1970s inflation event was all about. My thesis is that compared to now, things were much more in fiscal balance and there was a lot of expansion still left in the cards.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1GX

Anybody who's 100% certain of anything going forward is just trying to sell you something.

Bellingham Bob says

Anybody who's 100% certain of anything going forward is just trying to sell you something.

Very true. Only time will tell

grywlfbg says

That's right, rich people.

Sorry, I believe the proper term is Job Creators.

Bellingham Bob says

Anybody who's 100% certain of anything going forward is just trying to sell you something.

Sing it, Brother Bob. Quoting Peter Schiff as any sort of authority is misguided. These kinds of people talk their book.

bubblesitter says

grywlfbg says

Deflationary depression here we come.

It is pure common sense, how can we go the other way with such a massive load of debt. I just don't get it.

I agree. I think it's much more likely to be deflation or only moderate inflation. The hyperinflation argument seems far less likely -- what is the real mechanism? Currently we are still working off credit, i.e. deflation due to the burst of the credit bubble. If the government is throwing cash into the mix, like Japan, it is largely offsetting the credit. The inflation already happened during the bubble when credit increased significantly.

btw, I really like Schiff. He was right when it mattered, in 2007-2008.

I'd like to think the CNBC clowns knew he was right, but had to toe the party line regardless. The mere act of giving Schiff airtime was all Fox/CNBC had to do to inform the clueful.

Bellingham Bob says

btw, I really like Schiff. He was right when it mattered, in 2007-2008.

Anyone can be right for short periods of time. All it takes is staking out a position that is plausible.

Just talk to John Paulson:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/08/10/bloomberg1376-LPOFMK1A74E901-4Q2JPC453VOJE0PMSOCLM0O906.DTL

Or if the Chron is too socialist for you, the WSJ:
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/08/19/guess-whos-getting-crushed-by-hewlett-packard-john-paulson/