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2020-2025 Housing Prices any guesses?
invite response
2011 Aug 21, 3:40pm 23,282 views 118 comments
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The Answer lies in Globalization.
My guess is houses will drop 50%.
If we look at autoworker wages:
Detroit was $100 or $75 per hour
It moved to Tennessee and $55/hour
It moved to Mexico at $15/hour
It moved to China at $2/hour (China banned from auto sales in U.S.)
Jeep went bankrupt and emerged with new hires at $15/hour
Chinese auto workers got a raise to $3/hour
The best we can hope for is $15/hr or $30,000/yr which equates to a house or loan of $115,000 with 2 incomes $230,000. (fact check?)
Inflation is an unknown, Romney tariffs on China is an unknown, and if Japan's Yen is devalued to help break the Yuan/Dollar peg, that is unknown.
In a free global market the wages will equalize. Water seeks it own level.
Edit: in a free global market many foreigners can buy real estate in the beautiful Bay Area driving up prices.
dunnross
2012 Sep 4, 11:47am
Even in very poor parts of the world, a reasonable house with land costs FAR MORE than in most US cities.
Look for a drop in prices of 90% in all those poor parts of the world, across the board. Then we'll talk.
taxee
2012 Sep 4, 11:48am
In our new system one guy can push a button and grab a trillion dollars worth of mortgages/deeds just because he can. No one can stop him and the carrying costs are just the property taxes. Say hello to the new rentier class. Formerly known as the nobility. I know he's doing it supposedly so my retirement check doesn't bounce. But how long will that fantasy last?
In our new system one guy can push a button and grab a trillion dollars worth of mortgages/deeds just because he can.
See Sarbanes Oxley... Segregation of Duties, Internal Control over Financial transaction and IT access... but sometimes it happens.. rare, unauthorized, and will be caught/prosecuted.
. Even in very poor parts of the world, a reasonable house with land costs FAR MORE than in most US cities. visit Shanghai, Bangkok, Manila or Mexico city for comparison sake.
Smaller cities do attract industries and business, because they are more competitive.. as Arizona has from Silicon Valley.
Overall, Japan and German didnt skyrocket like many others... they already had their bubble in the 80s and 90s.
taxee
2012 Sep 4, 12:05pm
In our new system one guy can push a button and grab a trillion dollars worth of mortgages/deeds just because he can.
See Sarbanes Oxley... Segregation of Duties, Internal Control over Financial transaction and IT access... but sometimes it happens.. rare, unauthorized, and will be caught/prosecuted.
I don't see any indication that the fed will be prosecuted any time soon.
taxee
2012 Sep 4, 12:09pm
Things seem to be working quite well for them. The fed are fine, the hungry get food stamps. What could possibly go wrong?
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I've read some predictions that we wont reach 2006 bubble prices again in Los Angeles until 2024... Others are less optimistic and see prices heading back to mid-1990s prices and staying there until 2025. Which would mean we would have 30 years of ZERO housing appreciation from 1995-2025.
What types of effect on our society would 30 years of zero housing appreciation have? We just had a decade of zero stock market gains and are very close to a decade of zero gains in the housing market. What new policies, changes in tax system, green energy industrial revolution can jumpstart the economy... ?
#housing