patrick.net

I have no idea, really.

Too many variables.

You've got to divide the future into possible cases.

As things are set up now, 2020 is basically when everything blows up.

The front half of the baby boom will be 63-74 and hitting SSA retirement age.

So 2022 will be when the front half hits medicare, too.

This is going to be an immense wealth suck for us -- the baby boom had to put an extra 2.6T+ into the system 1986-2008 and they're going to want it back.

This means higher taxes on everyone else, and all taxes come out of rents (and home values).

Then there's "ObamaCare". If this survives the next 2 years the upper middle class will be partially subsidizing the lower quintiles' health care bills. More money getting pulled out of our wallets.

Then there's the national debt itself. Will it be $25T by 2020? Interest alone will be $750B/yr, and that's at 3%.

What about oil? $15 gas is entirely possible.

What new policies, changes in tax system, green energy industrial revolution can jumpstart the economy... ?

Avoiding my typical pie-in-the-sky stuff, I think the system is just going to come under increasing stress. We could pave the high desert in solar power arrays and save our bacon (it'd be a better investment than high speed rail) but if that's going to happen we'v got to start planning now.

But what might also happen is the money supply expanding such that prices get another 0, along with everyone's incomes. That would solve some problems, and of course make buying a house now a screaming deal.