patrick.net

Option A) is my choice cuz you are not overextending and that seems to be low end market that may not correct that much anyways.

I'd rent till next year. Then re-evaluate.

All housing price indicators point down, so I see no reason to jump into being a debt slave.

Is that option C

0.67x or

2x - 3x?

If the latter, of course buy now if you can own your house for the equivalent of 4yrs of rent
If the former, then either (A) or (C). Condo's may face difficulty being unloaded in the next few years as condo purchase may become cash-only market in the next few years.

My humble opinion, of course, as always.

Option C is .67x.

B seems like it's the best option, with lowest risks, provided that condo is worth the money.

Buy a condo that is cash flow positive from day 1, preferably putting as litle down as possible (Fannie Mae?), live in it for 4 years and continue to save. Rent it out and buy your house, hopefully now with 20%.

I would avoid the condo, because HOA dues only go up. Did you include those fees in your estimate of 1.5-2x? Also, the it seems most condo associations skimp on reserves and then hit owners for special assessments like replacing a roof or other maintenance they should have allotted for.

In many places, condo rentals are so much cheaper than PITIH (PITI + HOA fees) that banks won't write loans due to too low a percentage of owner-occupiers. It really depends on where you're buying, and you didn't say that. A condo in San Francisco is a much better bet than South Florida, say. Or even Hayward.

madhaus says

I would avoid the condo, because HOA dues only go up. Did you include those fees in your estimate of 1.5-2x?

No, those fees are not included. Neither are costs like maintenance and property tax for A).

You didnt factor in where you are looking to buy. If you were looking at buying a condo in the middle of suburbia I would say no way. A house yes based on your model.

Forget whether if its going up or down a good majority of inventory in some desirable areas like San Diego where I live have complete losers on the market. If you find the value in the house, then yes, if it just makes sense econmically I say no. Wait until you find the RIGHT house for you AND facts and figures make sense.

StoutFiles, maintenance on a house is not comparable with HOA dues. You have much, much less control over HOA (as in virtually none). Even if you invest the time to join the HOA board, bizarre things tend to happen.

I owned a condo in Walnut Creek (suburb east of the Oakland Hills). The board fired the professional managers and two of the people on the board said THEY would manage the place. Incredible conflict of interest, plus this was a huge complex, so not a job for amateurs. There were so many lawsuits when I moved out of the place I don't even want to enumerate them. And yet they managed to keep their value (subject to the bubble and pop, that is). I sold out in 1998, long before the huge property value increase (over 300%), and I don't regret it.