patrick.net

Randy H. again Sir your knowledge of these types of matters is astounding!

Randy H. again Sir your knowledge of these types of matters is astounding!

Sir? Randy H, KBE?

allah,

my point is you cannot prove or disprove anything with rental quotes. the prices may be because of what you say, or may be because the city is accumulating trucks (or short of trucks) because it is just unlucky in the grand scheme of u-haul's system. demand is not the only thing driving prices of trucks; there is a logistical force at work too. when u-haul optimizes pricing, they can purposefully take negative revenues on some runs because it increases revenues by more than that in others.

Parsed the pop data and here's what is says:

47 cities together lost 1.8% of their pop

and

47 cities gained population, 2.1% rise.

Kind of a push in my book. So much for the "exploding" population element to BA RE prices.

Wayne, take if from me, tell them that it gets to -20 below in the winter, for 6 months, that the re-introduction of the grizzly bear and wolf packs and adversely effected prop. values, and that you just plain can't get good brie there.

Wayne, nooooooooooooooooooooo

"So the winters have lots of bright sunny days, but nights are pretty cold. I was able to run or hike very comfortably last winter,"

Hey, sounds just like the So Cal high desert...well, except here we have all the sex offenders, west coast rednecks, and other assorted derelicts.

allah, all i'm saying is that may not be price reflective. i've worked designing these types of systems (although not for rental trucks), and the price is not indicitive of micro demand in many cases. trucks can be out of place because of non-demand related reasons.

Allah, RandyH, sorry man, just thought it was odd that the prices were so skewed coming out of Ca. Didn't mean to cause another battle royale :)

Allah, RandyH, sorry man, just thought it was odd that the prices were so skewed coming out of Ca. Didn’t mean to cause another battle royale

I read that the interstate freeway system was designed to accomodate emergency evacuations. For example, traffic is directed to use all lanes (inbound and outbound) to leave the city in case of an approaching hurricane.

I wonder if we will see that on Bay Area freeways if the equity refugees need to leave quickly in drove.

How? Trucks don’t drive themselves…Someone needed (demand) to drive the truck to where it is now. Now there is one more (supply) truck there then there was before and one less truck where it was before (again supply).

Sorry allah, it doesn't reduce so easily. Not only is the relationship not directly proportional, but there are other heavy variables in the equation. Systems I've designed for this purpose must account for minimization of variable costs, which include relative costs of maintenance centers, ages of fleet, rate of retirement of fleet and introduction of new fleet, cost of no-revenue conveyence (flying empty planes, hiring truck drivers to reposition, etc.). All this stuff, when optimized, makes your assumptions about price false.

If you really want to learn about this stuff I recommend studying transshipment problems, shortest path problems, equipment maintenance and replacement problems, and maximal flow problems (perhaps even generalized network flow problems). Cliff Ragsdale is a author to reference. This stuff is really cool if you like math and are excited about suprising, counter-intuitive results. One of these I set up for a regional airline, just for example, had over 1,200 linear constraint variables. U-haul would have many more for their network.

Randy, the model is still pretty much a linear system, right?

And remember in the desert you can remember your name ’cause there ain’t no one for to give you no pain

Ahh the 70's, replusive music, replusive people, replusive cars, well, just replusive. Odd that the boomers are cramming this shit down their kids throats. Here's a clue people, the 70's were never cool, they never will be no matter how much the GAP wants you to think they are.

I wonder if we will see that on Bay Area freeways if the equity refugees need to leave quickly in droves.

The diamond lanes will be reserved for multiple mortgages/HELOCs only.

The diamond lanes will be reserved for multiple mortgages/HELOCs only.

But if you have NAAVLP, you can use the diamond lanes "solo".

Randy, the model is still pretty much a linear system, right?

In practice, most are implemented as non-linear systems. But we use linear systems to model, approximate, and test assumptions in the design phases. The non-linearity comes in with physical dimensions, where orders of power ususally come to play. But, on the drawing board we can often reduce non-linearity to linear approximates. Even in a linear system, price is not directly proportional to demand because of variable sensitivity.

Someone traded $1B worth of XOM in one fell swoop today. Crash or not, things do get pretty weird in October, Peter.

Yes indeed. Three more trading to October expiration. Red Alert! All hands to battle stations!

In practice, most are implemented as non-linear systems. But we use linear systems to model, approximate, and test assumptions in the design phases.

When you implement your portfolio optimizations, do you use QP? Or do you use some form of simulations?

When you implement your portfolio optimizations, do you use QP? Or do you use some form of simulations?

***not investment advise***
I use Crystal Ball for statistical simulation and Mathematica for linear programming, which I apply to a Black-Litterman model. I'm just experimenting with this on my own, not for any paying clients at the moment. I bring everything together in Excel. I also use a big whopping FFM model in Excel which I built some time back on someone else's dime. I know a lot of folks use Matlab though.

For price/cost optimizers I find more people using products like iLog's, which makes my job easier. I used to have to do the math, but now it's just a design problem.

And who wins the award for “Worst Dressed Professionals” in the 1970s?

Thats right! Real estate agents! Plaid suits with white shoes.

Now, what about all those realtor mugs plastered all over magazines, newspapers, even shopping carts! Most scream "Pick me because I'm photogenic enough to sell your home!" Some women look dressed for a cocktail party, other realtors are with their pets (wtf?). Personally, I'd trust ones that don't seem to be trying so hard.

I am more inclined to move on out to the desert

Do I? Hmmm, WTF,

Jack, in the desert you can remember your name ’cause there ain’t no one for to give you no pain

"I read that the interstate freeway system was designed to accomodate emergency evacuations."

Also, in large part, for efficient military transportation in time of war.

"One of these I set up for a regional airline, just for example, had over 1,200 linear constraint variables."

So you're to blame for those wacky, non-sensical airfares!?!

"Ofcourse, I dont want to eat gloom-and-doom but thats what they have been cooking all along so all of us will have to live with it."

Nice quote!

To drop the bong one beautiful evening and never get up again

And shot to death by a jealous husband?

Good zinger Surfer-X!

Jack, Huh?

Jack, sorry man, just trying to schedule a multi-variate vacation node in Edinburgh. Randy H. any models to find the best cost/pub distance/pimp factor in Edinburgh?

Huh?

I think the next thread should be titled simply: “Huh?”

Done.

With more words like these below, by Fed Janet Yellen, there's plenty of time left in October:

"Certainly, analyses do indicate that house prices are abnormally high; that there is a 'bubble' element, even accounting for factors that would support high house prices, such as low mortgage interest rates. So a reversal is certainly a possibility. Moreover, even the portion of house prices that is explained by low mortgage rates is at risk."

Jack when I asked my favorite Professor, who taught metallurgy, and was just a really really great guy, how he would like to go, his response was classic "give me 10 more good years and then shot to death by a jealous husband", no offensive intended man! There are good boomers (Jack) and bad ones (all the remaining 71.8 mil). I kid I kid.

I think if I am forced to hear another Seals & Croft, America, Bread or Led Zep song I am going to slash my wrists with my teeth. Why must it go on and on and on?

Jack, sorry man, just trying to schedule a multi-variate vacation node in Edinburgh. Randy H. any models to find the best cost/pub distance/pimp factor in Edinburgh?

I'll send you out a proposal, including my hourly rate, lol. Perhaps I can freeload off your node down in Mougins.

I think if I am forced to hear another Seals & Croft, America, Bread or Led Zep song I am going to slash my wrists with my teeth. Why must it go on and on and on?

Someday they'll being saying that about our Cure, Depeche Mode and New Order. Wait! They already are?!? Well shit man, us Xers are old too I guess.

Desirenter, good move, I probably want to trade up when the interest cycle peaks too.

How high do you guys think the interest rate will go? I am thinking about something between 10-15%, perhaps even higher. Am I cuckoo?

How high do you guys think the interest rate will go? I am thinking about something between 10-15%, perhaps even higher. Am I cuckoo?

I doubt mortgage rate will go higher than 10%. I do not really buy the inflation story.

I doubt mortgage rate will go higher than 10%. I do not really buy the inflation story.

There would have been some pretty good inflation to hit nominal mortgage rates of 10%, lol.

but the 10% nominal rate is not only compensating for inflation, it may be needed to compensate for the extra currency risk that foreign investors require to invest in US assets. I believe the domestic inflation probably won't go above 10%, but adjusted for currency risk?

My understanding is, inflation has two components: stuff that we produce locally, stuff that we import. For stuff we produce locally, e.g. food, houses, etc. we are seeing some kind of inflation, let's say, 10% a year for simplicity's sake. For stuff we are importing, e.g. energy, cars, etc., shouldn't those foreigners force us to pay more for their goods because they are afraid that our money may not be worth as much as it does today, apart from compensating for their inflationary expectations?

If the Eurozone is having 2% interest rate, and we are having 10% interest rate, won't part of the differential be what I portray as the "currency risk"? After all, commodities like metals, gas, energy, food are "globalized" so whatever inflation we are facing should be faced there as well. The only difference in inflationary force between the dollar zone and euro zone should be stuff that cannot be outsourced or imported, like education, housing, medical service, etc. So after the housing bubble bursts here in the US, unless education and medical service suddenly decide to become the next bubble (I don't know how), why should there be much difference in inflation between europe and us in such a globalized economy where goods flow freely?

In the short term, interest rate differential will have a bigger impact than trade balance or national debt in affecting the currency strength. I am just not sure if this is sustainable in the long term. And if our interest rate shoots up, I believe part of it is already factored in as a compensation for "currency risk".

So, that is why I believe our interest rate will be higher than 10% if we need to account for the devaluation of the dollar.

If the Eurozone is having 2% interest rate, and we are having 10% interest rate, won’t part of the differential be what I portray as the “currency risk”?

There isn't that much of a currency risk component to the USD. H.Z. is dead on, as I understand it. Interest rates are governed by covered-interest-rate-parity (CIRP), which pretty much holds over the long term. But real goods exchange rates will change purchase-power-parity (PPP) over the shorter term.

Also, keep in mind that the US is the country *least* sensitive to interest rates in the rest of the world (ROW). Most other countries cannot change their nominal rate without an automatic adjustment in the real rate and inflation, because they are real-rate takers, not setters. The EU does have some nominal rate power, but nothing near the power the US has. Simply, we can buffer inflation by encouraging or discouraging capital inflows via nominal rates.

I mean, most of our jets and military systems are made in China or Singapore, and who knows what weird stuff is put into our weapons.

Not even remotely true. The US manufactures one thing very very well, weapons.