patrick.net

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Manipulation is always a risk when trying to estimate the future. If Buffet decided to take all his loot and buy up bubble-gum then the best analyst trying to predict the future price of bubble-gum would not have a chance. I wouldn't call them wrong, as you obviously would. I would call them slighted as we all are being in this country. Pumping future money into a broken system doesn't fix anything, it just makes it worse and delays the inevitable. All we have done (and I mean done as in the past tense) is create the artificial feeling of wealth for many that then buy into bubbles. Good luck to all on the backside of this coin. It will be absolutely amazing. Beyond your wildest dreams/nightmare.

That was a good post.

egads101 says

Median family income, even adjusted for inflation, has been growing for the past 2 years. It hasn't caught up with the past peak 2006 yet, but probably will in 3 years....

From your own link on the other thread http://patrick.net/?p=1228561 . How did you forget this?

and when you think you are bringing data, you should read it.

“Even though our businesses are creating new jobs and have broken record profits, nearly all the income gains of the past 10 years have continued to flow to the top 1 percent. The average C.E.O. has gotten a raise of nearly 40 percent since 2009. The average American earns less than he or she did in 1999.”

The Professor says

egads101 says

In old times, david would just be the village idiot

Is that you Roberto?

You may be right, I don't see any of Robertos posts, or comments any more.

egads101 says

mell says

That was a good post.

not really. What is the point of making predictions about the future, if you can always back out with saying, "well i would have been right, except for manipulation!"

that is a cop out.

If you buy a stock, and it collapses, you can say, "I would have made money but for A, B, and C...."

Does that make you a good stock picker? of course not!

And yet, attacking all the people who called the correct direction for housing is ok?

Depends on the context. In the context of ZH you could as well argue that one might have read one of their early articles about the new re-inflating housing bubble and decided to participate and made some money on it while others were looking for safer long-term alternatives outside of bubble land. Just because they call it a bubble or report negatively about its consequences doesn't mean that they advise anybody to short right at this moment. With a lot of the stories they break they are the first in reporting and long term they have been mostly correct about the direction of politics and the economy.

Compare Smaulgld June 15 written when the housing "recovery" was in full swing:

"While more homes come on the market, higher interest rates may deter buyers creating a reversal from shortage to glut."

http://smaulgld.com/the-coming-supplydemand-real-estate-inventory-reversal/

LA Times November 14 Home Prices Flat for 4 Months:
"several factors have helped ease price pressure, including rising mortgage rates, a pull-back by investors and an expanding supply of homes for sale."
http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-home-prices-20131113,0,3942564.story#axzz2kfo136QL

Geez, the gold bug giving real estate advice.

What's next, the pedo giving bicycle lessons?

upisdown says

Geez, the gold bug giving real estate advice.

What's next, the pedo giving bicycle lessons?

Not giving real estate or any advice-making market observations