patrick.net

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/26376-multifamily-construction-pushes-housing-starts

More about apartment building:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/home-front/2013/02/13/multifamily-housing-growth-poised-to-continue-in-2013

Housing units are a mix. One chart shows residential new construction dropping, but apartments are catching up to where they were before the Real Estate bubble.

I should write a post about that, but no one wants to hear about Real Estate.

egads101 says

The oracle is sad for you.

I do feel sad for all the people in the past three years who over paid. I'm not one of them, because I have enough money tied up in properties that are losing value.

The bears have been right all along.

Next time, bring data.

egads101 says

you should meditate on your error for at least one hour a day.

You're a nut job.

Next time bring data.

Also, the way the market is turning, right now, as we type, many people who listened are grateful they waited until the Fed stops fooling around.

egads101 says

data? such as that released this week that home prices are up 14% in the past year?

Price spikes are irrelevant.

Let's see, I buy a house at these outrageous prices, pay to get a mortgage, then pay the selling costs to get out of the mess, plus what ever I have to put in to make the place pretty.

Where's the profit?

Price spikes don't mean anything until you collect.

I just showed you we made $330K in 2006, 2007 in my spare time. How much did you make?

Next time bring data, and try to make some sense out of it.

Yeah, we're done. You've got nothing here but a Case/Shiller, Zillow, and Trulia price bump for 20 metro areas.

You should get out of the house more.

How are things doing in Wyoming?

David Losh says

egads101 says

data? such as that released this week that home prices are up 14% in the past year?

Price spikes are irrelevant.

Let's see, I buy a house at these outrageous prices, pay to get a mortgage, then pay the selling costs to get out of the mess, plus what ever I have to put in to make the place pretty.

Where's the profit?

Price spikes don't mean anything until you collect.

I just showed you we made $330K in 2006, 2007 in my spare time. How much did you make?

Next time bring data, and try to make some sense out of it.

How did you make $330k in 2006/2007 when you've spent a good amount of time talking about being underwater, having tax liens against you etc..?

And I don't follow how your property/ies have been losing value if they've been going up in price.

Call it Crazy says

Quiz: Which is better for the economy and housing recovery, selling 10 houses
that appreciated 12% in the year or selling 50 houses that appreciated 2% in the
year?

I can answer that. And let me say, point to you, yes the volume of transactions is a very clear indication of a struggling economy - going up nonetheless - but struggling to do so.

So now that we have put that into the "asked and answered" column, lets move on to what most (not all but most) ordinary buyers care about --- prices.

So let me ask you In nominal terms, have prices bottomed? Yes or No??

I put this to you as a test of your candor and intellectual honesty. You can continue to maintain that prices will continue to struggle to move upward, and point out what a terrible investment homes can be, but again its a yes or no question -

In nominal terms, have prices bottomed? Yes or No??

The Professor says

Is that you Roberto?

I agree, but these are much more childish comments than Bob's.

egads101 says

David will always lose money.

I make money every day.

You must have missed the parts about the property in Wyoming. Maybe the great oracle can tell us how much prices have gone up in Wyoming.

egads101 says

you make money, then you quote a house in wyoming that is losing you money?

I want to sell the property, all of our property. I want my cash out of losing propositions so it can be invested in making more money.

Wait a minute, at least I have those options, what is it you've got? Let's get them out and measure, shall we?

Call it Crazy says

Quiz: Which is better for the economy and housing recovery, selling 10 houses that appreciated 12% in the year or selling 50 houses that appreciated 2% in the year?

50 houses, 2% appreciation?

egads101 says

You are still trying here?

So, you've got nothing.

I want to sell my properties rather than buy more. Anyone buying property today is buying at the recognized top of the market. So, I want to sell at the top of the market or as close to a top of the market as we will ever get.

It's explained here every day.

egads101 says

write gibberish.

Bob?

egads101 says

The word is prices will drop like a rock.

you have said this now for almost 3 years, and the opposite has happened.

Only because we are stealing from the future to try and create artificial demand. It will only mean the correction will be much worse when it eventually happens. Which at this point looks like the next 12 months. Giddy up. Down we go, all thanks to greed and stupidity.

The Professor says

egads101 says

In old times, david would just be the village idiot

Is that you Roberto?

It sure seem like it might be.

egads101 says

David Losh says

The really cool thing about Partick.net is all the people who have called it correctly.

you write that RIGHT UNDER your october 2012 prediction of price drops....

Or has this newbie really been following what David L said since 2012?

egads101 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

egads101 says

The word is prices will drop like a rock.

you have said this now for almost 3 years, and the opposite has happened.

Only because we are stealing from the future to try and create artificial demand.

so when you are wrong, you always just make up an excuse.

sorry, but wrong is wrong.

Manipulation is always a risk when trying to estimate the future. If Buffet decided to take all his loot and buy up bubble-gum then the best analyst trying to predict the future price of bubble-gum would not have a chance. I wouldn't call them wrong, as you obviously would. I would call them slighted as we all are being in this country. Pumping future money into a broken system doesn't fix anything, it just makes it worse and delays the inevitable. All we have done (and I mean done as in the past tense) is create the artificial feeling of wealth for many that then buy into bubbles. Good luck to all on the backside of this coin. It will be absolutely amazing. Beyond your wildest dreams/nightmare.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Manipulation is always a risk when trying to estimate the future. If Buffet decided to take all his loot and buy up bubble-gum then the best analyst trying to predict the future price of bubble-gum would not have a chance. I wouldn't call them wrong, as you obviously would. I would call them slighted as we all are being in this country. Pumping future money into a broken system doesn't fix anything, it just makes it worse and delays the inevitable. All we have done (and I mean done as in the past tense) is create the artificial feeling of wealth for many that then buy into bubbles. Good luck to all on the backside of this coin. It will be absolutely amazing. Beyond your wildest dreams/nightmare.

That was a good post.

egads101 says

Median family income, even adjusted for inflation, has been growing for the past 2 years. It hasn't caught up with the past peak 2006 yet, but probably will in 3 years....

From your own link on the other thread http://patrick.net/?p=1228561 . How did you forget this?

and when you think you are bringing data, you should read it.

“Even though our businesses are creating new jobs and have broken record profits, nearly all the income gains of the past 10 years have continued to flow to the top 1 percent. The average C.E.O. has gotten a raise of nearly 40 percent since 2009. The average American earns less than he or she did in 1999.”

The Professor says

egads101 says

In old times, david would just be the village idiot

Is that you Roberto?

You may be right, I don't see any of Robertos posts, or comments any more.

egads101 says

mell says

That was a good post.

not really. What is the point of making predictions about the future, if you can always back out with saying, "well i would have been right, except for manipulation!"

that is a cop out.

If you buy a stock, and it collapses, you can say, "I would have made money but for A, B, and C...."

Does that make you a good stock picker? of course not!

And yet, attacking all the people who called the correct direction for housing is ok?

Depends on the context. In the context of ZH you could as well argue that one might have read one of their early articles about the new re-inflating housing bubble and decided to participate and made some money on it while others were looking for safer long-term alternatives outside of bubble land. Just because they call it a bubble or report negatively about its consequences doesn't mean that they advise anybody to short right at this moment. With a lot of the stories they break they are the first in reporting and long term they have been mostly correct about the direction of politics and the economy.

Compare Smaulgld June 15 written when the housing "recovery" was in full swing:

"While more homes come on the market, higher interest rates may deter buyers creating a reversal from shortage to glut."

http://smaulgld.com/the-coming-supplydemand-real-estate-inventory-reversal/

LA Times November 14 Home Prices Flat for 4 Months:
"several factors have helped ease price pressure, including rising mortgage rates, a pull-back by investors and an expanding supply of homes for sale."
http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-home-prices-20131113,0,3942564.story#axzz2kfo136QL

Geez, the gold bug giving real estate advice.

What's next, the pedo giving bicycle lessons?

upisdown says

Geez, the gold bug giving real estate advice.

What's next, the pedo giving bicycle lessons?

Not giving real estate or any advice-making market observations