patrick.net

It's very simple US investors are going to have a very hard time playing Risk/Off in the US markets
when that is where the rest of the world is looking for ROI...

I have to admit, even I was totally surprised how well the joke worked

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/04/sunday-night-futures.html

This is about as close to economics as Peter and I are going to get for this cycle

So the new tag line from this crew

Next move from the Fed this year is send rates negative and #QE4 is just around the corner, honestly, seriously, ..... come on! ;-)

April fools day might not be a joke to some.
The economy has already crashed for many Americans.

HEY YOU says

The economy has already crashed for many Americans

I agree

If you're

- High school drop out
- non college educated American
- Drug users
- Criminally active American
- On disability
- Spend too much time on social media sites, watching porn or playing video games
- Have no trade show skill

It's hard to make a living wage

Ironman says

Scary that you actually believe that chart..

Not only that I believe, it's a staple of my economic discussion on why the Myth from Gold Bugs and MMT are more economic fraud story tellers than anything else. The notion that 24-95 million people are out work was always absurd but we wanted to Drag their dead bodies out into the town to show that circus storyteller might be able to rally the mob for a short time but the purity of math, facts and data will always win out in the end

As always .... I used this chart... Where exactly did we lose 24-95 million Americans in the last 5 years when claims are at 43 lows and Job Openings are at a 16 year high

It's a Ghost thesis... I find it fitting that only Gold Bugs and MMT people push this because like most attention seeking people, they need to create a boggy man for their economic ideology to be valid

Demographics screaming from the top of the highest mountain.... :-)

This is America not Europe or Japan

Logan M. says:"- High school drop out
- non college educated American"

I'm not sure the college educated are so educated.

http://dailycaller.com/2016/04/07/more-than-40-percent-of-americans-arent-paying-their-student-loans/

HEY YOU says

I'm not sure the college educated are so educated.

Majority of all Student loans debt that are in default are those who took on college debt and never finished college

Total student loan debt profile

70% is under 14K
13% is over 50K
3% is over 100K

40% of all student loan debt are from Grad students, don't worry about these kids, they will fine.

Base median income for 2015 College Grads between 48K-54K depending on who's data you follow

Ironman says

They didn't retire, like so many think is the reason. Go pull the LFPR for the +55 group and match it to the 25-54 chart.

This has been explained to you many, many times. I can't believe you still don't get it. The participation rates of 50-60 yr olds is always lower than 35 yr olds. So, as the population ages, even in the 55 yr old rate stays constant, the overall participation rate will fall.

Ironman says

Go pull the LFPR for the +55 group and match it to the 25-54 chart.

Older people are working for sure

The reason they created a prime age labor force age

18-24 school
55 and over old

154 million working Americans and we are only missing 2.8 million Americans from the peak of the housing bubble

When we have 5.4 million Jobs openings today

Most Americans who can work, want to work and need to work are working

Again, it's a Ghost thesis

If I exclude 16-24 and 55 and over unemployment rate is 4.2%

Ironman says

Oh Tatty, are you low on Troll dollars again???

The participation rate has INCREASED for the +55 group since the recession versus it going DOWN for the 25-54 group. So blaming the lower LFPR overall since the recession on retirees leaving is nonsense.

No, it's really not. I'm sorry you are too dim to understand how statistics work, but I'm tired of trying to teach you.

Millions of people can make good money blogging! They wouldn't be working two part time jobs if they had some ejumacation!

www.youtube.com/embed/n2kH_mniFWc

(Other than the nonsense about being all this unfilled demand for blogging and middling level white collar jobs, I like your posts, Logan)

thunderlips11 says

two part time jobs

1 in 20 = millions.

thunderlips11 says

1 in 20 = millions.

High school drop out
Non college educated American
Non Trade show skill

I am always willing to give you the fact that low educated and low skilled Americans can't make a living wage.

Job Openings are at 5.4 million 16 year high

Almost half of the American work force makes less than $15/hr. And most of the 'fastest growing occupations' in the US pay less than $15/hr, such as Home Health Aides.

About half of all workers making less than $15/hr are over 35, the old "Teenagers" argument doesn't fly anymore.

http://www.nelp.org/publication/growing-movement-15/

thunderlips11 says

Almost half of the American work force makes less than $15/hr.

Barring Housing and Finance Jobs majority of the Jobs loss in the Great Recession where low level educated service jobs

Which goes back to my thesis that

Low educated Low Service Jobs are hand in hand

We aren't all poor uneducated people.. if we were our core economics would look much different

For example construction jobs have had their best clip in this cycle for 12 months

One of the core reasons why we aren't in a recession is because we have grown out of the one trick pony exporting thesis that China is so desperate to get out of

Hmm, what was GDP growth like in the 50s, 60s, 70s...

and what is it like in the 21st Free Trade Century? It sucks.

I think we have what, 0.1% growth last quarter?

We have a one-trick Pony Economy: Finance and only Finance.

thunderlips11 says

Hmm, what was GDP growth like in the 50s, 60s, 70s.

Demographic economics, older countries don't grow as fast as they once did, natural build out of economic cycles isn't a 1 to 1 variable, this has been proven

The sickness in finance has been to use a 1 to 1 variable in each cycle

If America was this bad all these Anti American cry babies would have left this country. Take their families and move away

So, to all of you who cry every day about how bad America is

Priceline.com

https://www.priceline.com/home/

This is no country for fake men... we don't beg here in America, that is a European Thing

#Demographic economics matter

Red herring. Neoliberalism has been great for those who already had money, but has been a resounding failure.

The promises were millions of high tech jobs of the future, not millions of housekeeping and home health aide buttwiping jobs replacing Teens-per-hour wage+benefit jobs.

Time to hold neoliberalism accountable. "Start showing results you promised for the bottom 80% or you're out."

Education is not the answer; we have a glut of educated people.
http://www.newsweek.com/2015/06/05/millennial-college-graduates-young-educated-jobless-335821.html

Also, the Great Recession was almost a decade ago, and many aspects of the economy have yet to recover.

Be careful! One can't crush 50% of the population for decades and expect no eventual blowback, that shows no understanding of history.

Trump 2016

thunderlips11 says

Trump 2016

Very popular with the High School Drop outs Trump is but Trump appeals is more on building a wall or deporting Mexicans. Every time I talk to a Trump supporter .... It's not pretty.

However, to his credit. He has shown that we do have a big group of White Americans who aren't educated or skilled. These Americans are desperate and they do need help.

So, to that context, I like what Trump has brought into the discussion.

He has also brought to the equation on how Iraq was a bad idea, that too was a good point.

The rest is just Politics ... Trump is going to lose by biggest vote margin ever recorded in U.S. history if he is the Republican Candidate.

I find the demographics one a non-starter, looking at the 40s - early 70s when we had massive growth in the Economy, the population only increased a few million.

We take in many millions of legal and illegal immigrants in just one decade, nevermind America's slightly positive birth rate.

Logan Mohtashami says

However, to his credit. He has shown that we do have a big group of White Americans who aren't educated or skilled. These Americans are desperate and they do need help.

And there are nowhere near enough openings to possibly employ them if they did get educated. No employer is begging for Accountant I or Computer Programmer I applicants.

No country of 320+M can survive only on FIRE jobs. This is not Lichtenstein or Hong Kong; we are bigger and more populous than a city state.

thunderlips11 says

40s - early 70s when

Our economy was so small then, plus there was no globalization market place

Black Plague thesis

Our economy grew from 2 trillion to 18 trillion from 1979 when the exporting thesis went away and the world because a global service and consumption economy

Logan Mohtashami says

Our economy grew from 2 trillion to 18 trillion from 1979 when the exporting thesis went away and the world because a global service and consumption economy

What happened was we began eliminating all the common sense rules that prevented a banking crisis from the New Deal, and for a while, easy cheap widespread credit was wonderful in the Private Sector. We also cut taxes while massively increasing military spending when Reagan spent huge sums on upgrading the US Military.

However, taxes are at post WW2 lows, increasingly larger deficit spending has less and less of an impact, and the consumer is largely tapped out due to flat wages and already high levels of debt for the ejumacation it takes to get a lower middle class job pushing paper.

Finally, we have a profession that completely dropped the soap and got $*@#@ by reality in 2008, yet is just as arrogant a social science as it was before, without addressing fundamental flaws in it's thinking - Orthodox Economics. There were only a handful of Economists who came within anything like predicting the Financial Crisis, and half of them were cranks like Peter Schiff who are just broken clocks that were eventually right. The rest of the handful were mostly into...

Hyman Minsky!

thunderlips11 says

Hyman Minsky!

Again, you're making my point

Low educated, Low Skilled, Drug Users, Criminal Active Americans are having a rough time

Peak unemployment rate for college educated Americans in the Great Recession was 5% and now it's 2.6%

with 16 year highs in Job openings and 43 year low in unemployment claims

Logan Mohtashami says

with 16 year highs in Job openings

Versus the dot com recession, not much to brag about.

Logan Mohtashami says

43 year low in unemployment claims

Yep, some millenial living at home is getting 10-15 hours at Accounttemps, therefore has a job.

thunderlips11 says

Yep, some millenial living at home is getting 10-15 hours at Accounttemps, therefore has a job

College educated M's don't work those jobs, but non educated people do, I will give you that

Logan Mohtashami says

College educated M's don't work those jobs, but non educated people do, I will give you that

I mean somebody with a degree who is working as a Temp or Waitress - if they work at all, they're not unemployed.

Only 45% of Americans are employed full time (30+) hours.

http://www.gallup.com/opinion/chairman/181469/big-lie-unemployment.aspx
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125639/Gallup-Daily-Workforce.aspx

thunderlips11 says

http://www.gallup.com/opinion/chairman/181469/big-lie-unemployment.aspx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/125639/Gallup-Daily-Workforce.aspx

Gallap is horrible .... remember Gallap Leader was one to believe that 95 millions Americans are out of work

Even though we didn't lose more than 15 million from the Great Recession

Ironman says

First-quarter economy looks bleaker by the day.

Atlanta GDP has missed on it's GDP estimates 75% of the time by under shooting GDP

We have always had 1 real bad GDP quarter for years now

No Crash No Recession has happened because of this.

Even myself lowered by low end GDP this to a 1 handle and even with that

No Recession, No Crash,

:-)

Last year’s chemistry graduates in the US saw the jobs market improve, with unemployment falling from nearly 15% to 12.4%, according to figures from the American Chemical Society’s (ACS) annual graduate survey, released on 29 June.

Nevertheless, unemployment among new chemistry graduates ‘continues to run high,’ and was roughly 4 times as high as the rate for regular ACS members in 2014, the ACS noted. The unemployment figure was 12.4% for new grads versus 2.9% for ACS members, according to the survey, which was sent to 12,771 recent graduates in October and November 2014.

The overall picture is much rosier than the one painted by ACS’ last survey, which reported unemployment among chemistry graduates rising from 12.6% to 14.9% between 2012 and 2013.

ACS’s new data show that the median starting salary for new chemistry graduates with a bachelor's degree in 2014 improved 2.6% ahead of inflation. But at the same time, salaries for new master’s and PhD holders lagged behind inflation. Worst hit was the median starting salary of new doctorate chemists, which fell 20% from $75,000 in 2013 to $60,000 in 2014.

Regarding equality of the sexes, the survey reveals that new female chemistry graduates earned a starting median salary that was 7.3% less than their male counterparts in 2014. However, among chemical engineers, new female graduates were paid a starting median salary that was 3% higher than their male equivalents.

http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/2015/07/employment-prospects-better-us-chemistry-graduates

The Media seldom reports high STEM unemployment numbers, because it takes away from one of the last Neoliberal red herring distraction of a skills mismatch and "People get the opportunities they work hard to qualify for" when there is already a glut of prospective qualified employees.

Very last thing I am worried about are the educated middle class in this country

I'm not taking the AEI is a source.

The Pew Research Center shows just that, as do other groups that aren't extremist radical neoliberal ideologue think tanks.
http://www.seattletimes.com/business/economy/the-incredible-shrinking-middle-class/