patrick.net

The stock market is very bubblicious because of ZIRP. Just be very careful.

I have a day job and majority of my income comes from W2. I understand that I do NOT have time to gain any edge on individual stock picking or doing trend following and gauge market sentiment. I do know it is more important to avoid large losses than trying to get rich fast, so I am obsessed about NOT losing money. Because I do NOT have edge on analyzing short term market moves, I rely on long term reliable metrics on large indices (as opposed to individual stocks) that has good correlation with 10 year returns which is long enough to be more measurable/predictable. I guess that makes me more like a value guy, but on large indices. Since this discussion starts with 401K money, I guess it is appropriate to do it passive and estimate 10 year returns. Remember if we are in year 2000, the return is roughly 0 if you go forward to year 2010. Reason is simple, the valuation metrics of year 2000 is too high. You can bring up all kinds of arguments like election cycles, individual sector inventions, or various metrics on economy, such as employment, inventory, housing .... but those short term noises seldom matter if you zoom out to 10 years, and the only thing that historically proven to have correlation with 10 year return is valuation metrics such as CAPE10, Tobin Q, Market CAP / GDP .... My opinion is that current valuation is like year 2000, so 10years later, the return is likely (90% probability) to be zero. I am NOT sure how the market will fluctuate within next 10 years, but I am 90% confident that after 10 years, S&P would be roughly where we are now. Those 3 year S7P move probabilities are just my opinion which is largely a result of the combination of valuation, trend, sentiment which I am NOT an expert on.

Throwing ARRY, a biotech stock - high risk as with any but with real revenues from collaborations - into the mix. Currently priced at $3.50/share.

Logan Mohtashami says

Actually, I misspoke, if you count div. we are at a all time high

How's the outlook now? New all-time highs?

donny says

How's the outlook now? New all-time highs?

Still looks good, now that oil is up, trade and a lot areas that have been killed due to collapse of oil should look better for Q4 2016 and Q1 2017

Market is really not showing any topping action, even though this is the longest period where a new high hasn't been created, this recent move in the Vix is big but to a small decline

Bears got no game,

BayArea says

And what are you hoping happens with TWTR?

Recent push in TWTR stocks since we talked about is more speculation even their investment in Sound is just more speculation for a sell of the company.

I am buying it for that thesis but I do agree that can drive the stock price in the short term since MSFT bought Link

I like SHOP. I used to work for a competitor and all they ever seemed to talk about was Shopify, with good reason.

Not profitable, but revenue has been doubling year over year repeatedly.

Purely speculative, but I bought a small part of TSLA this afternoon after today's 10%+ dip following Musk's announcement of the offer to buy crippled Solar City. Planning on holding for a year

BayArea says

Purely speculative, but I bought a small part of TSLA this afternoon after today's 10%+ dip following Musk's announcement of the offer to buy crippled Solar City. Planning on holding for a year

so far so good... bought on June 22nd at $196.00. Time to bail or hold?

Are there any VIX experts in here (volatility/fear index)?

I'm looking at the historic prices and I've never seen it go below $9.31 (1993). However, I've heard investors say that plenty of people have lost 100% of their money by investing in VIX. How is that possible?

BayArea says

Are there any VIX experts in here (volatility/fear index)?

Historic Volatility of Volatility in the past week, similar to Aug '90, May '10, Oct '14, and Aug '15. $VIX

So many lazy brains. Askin' for stock tips on a housing forum.

Now I've seen it all.

junkmail says

So many lazy brains. Askin' for stock tips on a housing forum.

Now I've seen it all.

Mr. High and Mighty, nothing wrong with a little discussion and idea exchange is there?

Nope nuthing wrong with that. Just saying... cherry picking individual stocks when you might not know what your doing is a dangerous game. Be smart, be careful and do your research.

BayArea says

Are there any VIX experts in here (volatility/fear index)?

Volatility Index has dropped 39% thus far this week. 4-day biggest drop in history.

Logan Mohtashami says

Volatility Index has dropped 39% thus far this week. 4-day biggest drop in history

So how do we capitalize on a lack of volatility :-)

BayArea says

So how do we capitalize on a lack of volatility :-)

Ticker symbol above with the chart

ACWV

The investment seeks to track the investment results of the MSCI ACWI Minimum Volatility (USD) Index. The fund generally will invest at least 90% of its assets in the component securities of the underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of the underlying index. The index measures the combined performance of equity securities in both emerging and developed markets that in aggregate have lower volatility.

VIX inself.. when she is a teenager or younger.. that's when you want to get in but when she is a becoming a 30 something ... that's when she has no more legs...

TWTR and GPRO are moving ... only plays I have left, everything else I have talked about have had big moves already... UNXL still a spec play under 1.50 secondary pricing but that had a massive move early on

Stop loss DB .. 13.08.. about the only thing I can think up to play Bretexit...

"Sell Everything" - RBS (Jan 11)
Returns since...
Oil: +47%
EM: +18%
S&P 500: +11%
US High Yield: +10%
$RBS: -43%

You're ignoring that there was a mini crash between Jan 11th and now... fair points in general however Logan 👍

BayArea says

You're ignoring that there was a mini crash between Jan 11th and now...

No crash... No Oil $16.. the only thing that Crashed was RBS it's down 43%

A lot of the doom thesis for 2016 was based on a dollar parabolic push higher... that makes sense in theory but the Dollar never tends to do that after the first rate hike, biggest moves % wise happens before the first rate hike

Logan Mohtashami says

TWTR and GPRO are moving

BayArea says

So how do we capitalize on a lack of volatility :-)

Play the Forex. Plenty volatile there. I just made some good money on the £.
Problem is you need BIG money to make it worthwhile.
And as the guy from Mitch and Murray said, "You need brass balls..."

Strategist says

Strategist says

House Sold for $1,775,000 took contingencies off today

Sold 50% TWTR trade... now let the rest ride for as long as it can.. buy back at $14

Logan Mohtashami says

buy back at $14

Let's see how long it takes to get there... Hasn't dipped below 15.77 in the past month.

BayArea says

Hasn't dipped below 15.77 in the past month.

Its not going to either, after that ugly report and the price action...

This is a tough stock for the bears because some would say to short it $14 but this company can be taken out at any second, so it's not worth the short here either

ATEN has acted well but Different at $8 than at $5

GPRO is up

Not much out there unless someone wants to take a shot a Grains right now

Ya pretty much...

I pulled out my entire 401K into a money market temporarily... With my personal brokerage I'm sittin on precious metals, bonds, and oil at the moment.

BayArea says

Ya pretty much..

This is just the trading account

Always fully invested in the retirement $$$

Always investing MASI each month

Came out just now with SOLID earnings into a all time high as well

Trading account of course is much different

By the way, had a question for you in another thread... /?p=1292086&c=1293848#comment-1293848

BayArea says

By the way, had a question for you in another thread

Yes Conventional loans above 417K can do 10% down loans to $625,500, in fact my most popular loan this year is a loans between $417K-$625,000 non 20% down with no PMI attached

Logan, what do I need to show to get a 10% down loan at $625K with no PMI and the current conventional 30yr interest rate?

Do you know of anything under 20% DP for over $625K loan in existance?

BayArea says

Do you know of anything under 20% DP for over $625K loan in existance?

Yes there are 80% first 10% 2nd loans and the rest can be a 2nd lien heloc up to 1,100,000 million now if you're talking about over $625,500 that was my most popular loan in 2014 when that loan came out

Logan Mohtashami says

Yes there are 80% first 10% 2nd loans and the rest can be a 2nd lien heloc up to 1,100,000 million now if you're talking about over $625,500 that was my most popular loan in 2014 when that loan came out

And what sort of PMIs would we be talking with that and where can I find more info?

BayArea says

And what sort of PMIs would we be talking with that and where can I find more info?

No PMI you're taking on a 2nd loan Heloc starting rate was 5.99% it's probably higher than that now with the Fed raised a .25%

Its what I a call a Rich man's loan because you really need to make money to be able to afford this.

Only primary resident loans only

MASI 58.50 print ... sold little here ... new all time high.. chart is pretty.. so pretty