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The first 100 horrific days of a Trump presidency
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2016 Nov 5, 7:24am 19,995 views 75 comments
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58
joeyjojojunior
2017 Nov 7, 12:19pm
PaisleyPattern says
No he didn't. Please go back and read Nate's writing. . He was banging the drum all season saying the models showing Trump with a 95% chance of winning were crap.
Seriously--you are 100% incorrect. Do some research on your own if you don't believe me.
This is Silver hedging his bets.Throughout the campaign he constantly interpreted the polling as giving Trump approximately zero chance of winning.
No he didn't. Please go back and read Nate's writing. . He was banging the drum all season saying the models showing Trump with a 95% chance of winning were crap.
Seriously--you are 100% incorrect. Do some research on your own if you don't believe me.
59
joeyjojojunior
2017 Nov 7, 12:22pm
CIC- again, it's no use having this discussion with you because it's over your head.
If I have a 6 sided die and I say there's only a 16.67% chance it lands on 1, then I roll it and it lands on 1--was I wrong?
Because that's basically what you are saying.
Nate said there's a 30% chance of Trump winning, and he won. Was Nate wrong?
If I have a 6 sided die and I say there's only a 16.67% chance it lands on 1, then I roll it and it lands on 1--was I wrong?
Because that's basically what you are saying.
Nate said there's a 30% chance of Trump winning, and he won. Was Nate wrong?
60
MrMagic
2017 Nov 7, 12:25pm
MrMagic
2017 Nov 7, 12:25pm
joeyjojojunior says
Want to explain his E.C. prediction, because that's the ONLY thing that matters? Was that right or wrong?
Was Nate wrong?
Want to explain his E.C. prediction, because that's the ONLY thing that matters? Was that right or wrong?
61
joeyjojojunior
2017 Nov 7, 12:27pm
Sniper says
He didn't predict anything. He simply averaged the state's polling data and awarded it to the polling leader.
Want to explain his E.C. prediction, because that's the ONLY thing that matters? Was that right or wrong?
He didn't predict anything. He simply averaged the state's polling data and awarded it to the polling leader.
62
PaisleyPattern
2017 Nov 7, 12:27pm
joeyjojojunior says
Here are a few Silver quotes:
I wonder how much of the Trump Bump is just voters trolling pollsters,” Two Good Reasons Not To Take the Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously — July 16, 2015.
“Basically Trump is the Nickelback of presidential candidates. Disliked by most, super popular with a few.” — July 28, 2015
“PREDICTION: Trump won’t be the Republican /nominee.” — Aug. 6, 2015
“Media: Trump’s doing great! Nerds: No. Those polls don’t mean what you think. Media: A new poll shows Trump doing great! Proved you wrong!” — Aug. 9, 2015
“Donald Trump is winning the polls and losing the nomination.” — Aug. 11, 2015
“About 25% of Americans identify as Republican. Donald Trump’s getting about 25% of that 25% in the polls. Why is this impressive to people?” — Nov. 19, 2015
“Dear media, Please stop freaking out about Donald Trump’s polls.” — Nov. 23, 2015.
“As for me, I remain quite skeptical of Trump’s chances. I also think his nomination would be an unmitigated catastrophe for Republicans.” — Nov. 29, 2015
“Idea that ‘Trump would win an election today’ also dubious. If election were today, voters would be more informed and news cycle different.” — Dec. 4, 2015
(in response to Rupert Murdoch tweeting that Trump’s “cross-party appeal” was a “winning strategy”): “Actually, Trump is by far the least popular Republican with independents (and Democrats)”— Jan. 15, 2016
“Wait it’s just now sinking in that Trump might be a wee bit problematic as a general election candidate?” — March 20, 2016
“Trump’s general elex numbers have been terrible since he launched bid. Media barely noticed during 2015 Trumpmania.” — March 29, 2016
“[Idea of Trump being presumptive nominee by mid-May] is delusional. Math doesn’t work.” — April 9, 2016
“The bad news for Trump is that a poll showing him 5 points down is considered good news for Trump.” — June 26, 2016
“Perhaps the worst take is the ‘Trump’s actually doing well to only be down by 7!!!’ take. He’s the least popular major-party nominee ever.” — Aug. 3, 2016
“Trump has been super unpopular with the November electorate pretty much forever.” — Aug. 16, 2016
“Trump is doubling down on a losing strategy.” — Aug. 18, 2016
“[The] most delusional part of Trump thinking he has a silent majority is how small a fraction of the population he’s even bothering to appeal to.” — Aug. 13, 2016
https://www.currentaffairs.org/2016/12/why-you-should-never-ever-listen-to-nate-silver
Is this enough?
This coming from a pollster doesn’t look good. I guess Trump had an incredible surge and just beat Hillary by a nose at the finish line.
PaisleyPattern says
This is Silver hedging his bets.Throughout the campaign he constantly interpreted the polling as giving Trump approximately zero chance of winning.
No he didn't. Please go back and read Nate's writing. . He was banging the drum all season saying the models showing Trump with a 95% chance of winning were crap.
Seriously--you are 100% incorrect. Do some research on your own if you don't believe me.
Here are a few Silver quotes:
I wonder how much of the Trump Bump is just voters trolling pollsters,” Two Good Reasons Not To Take the Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously — July 16, 2015.
“Basically Trump is the Nickelback of presidential candidates. Disliked by most, super popular with a few.” — July 28, 2015
“PREDICTION: Trump won’t be the Republican /nominee.” — Aug. 6, 2015
“Media: Trump’s doing great! Nerds: No. Those polls don’t mean what you think. Media: A new poll shows Trump doing great! Proved you wrong!” — Aug. 9, 2015
“Donald Trump is winning the polls and losing the nomination.” — Aug. 11, 2015
“About 25% of Americans identify as Republican. Donald Trump’s getting about 25% of that 25% in the polls. Why is this impressive to people?” — Nov. 19, 2015
“Dear media, Please stop freaking out about Donald Trump’s polls.” — Nov. 23, 2015.
“As for me, I remain quite skeptical of Trump’s chances. I also think his nomination would be an unmitigated catastrophe for Republicans.” — Nov. 29, 2015
“Idea that ‘Trump would win an election today’ also dubious. If election were today, voters would be more informed and news cycle different.” — Dec. 4, 2015
(in response to Rupert Murdoch tweeting that Trump’s “cross-party appeal” was a “winning strategy”): “Actually, Trump is by far the least popular Republican with independents (and Democrats)”— Jan. 15, 2016
“Wait it’s just now sinking in that Trump might be a wee bit problematic as a general election candidate?” — March 20, 2016
“Trump’s general elex numbers have been terrible since he launched bid. Media barely noticed during 2015 Trumpmania.” — March 29, 2016
“[Idea of Trump being presumptive nominee by mid-May] is delusional. Math doesn’t work.” — April 9, 2016
“The bad news for Trump is that a poll showing him 5 points down is considered good news for Trump.” — June 26, 2016
“Perhaps the worst take is the ‘Trump’s actually doing well to only be down by 7!!!’ take. He’s the least popular major-party nominee ever.” — Aug. 3, 2016
“Trump has been super unpopular with the November electorate pretty much forever.” — Aug. 16, 2016
“Trump is doubling down on a losing strategy.” — Aug. 18, 2016
“[The] most delusional part of Trump thinking he has a silent majority is how small a fraction of the population he’s even bothering to appeal to.” — Aug. 13, 2016
https://www.currentaffairs.org/2016/12/why-you-should-never-ever-listen-to-nate-silver
Is this enough?
This coming from a pollster doesn’t look good. I guess Trump had an incredible surge and just beat Hillary by a nose at the finish line.
63
joeyjojojunior
2017 Nov 7, 12:30pm
PaisleyPattern says
No--I'm saying actually go to 538 and read some of his articles from late Oct. and early Nov. Don't go to conservative hit piece sites--go to the source and judge for yourself.
That's if you really want to learn something.
Is this enough?
This coming from a pollster doesn’t look good. I guess Trump had an incredible surge and just beat Hillary by a nose at the finish line.
No--I'm saying actually go to 538 and read some of his articles from late Oct. and early Nov. Don't go to conservative hit piece sites--go to the source and judge for yourself.
That's if you really want to learn something.
64
PaisleyPattern
2017 Nov 7, 12:34pm
joeyjojojunior says
Those are his quotes aren’t they?
PaisleyPattern saysIs this enough?
This coming from a pollster doesn’t look good. I guess Trump had an incredible surge and just beat Hillary by a nose at the finish line.
No--I'm saying actually go to 538 and read some of his articles from late Oct. and early Nov. Don't go to conservative hit piece sites--go to the source and judge for yourself.
That's if you really want to learn something.
Those are his quotes aren’t they?
65
PaisleyPattern
2017 Nov 7, 12:36pm
Sniper says
This.
joeyjojojunior saysNo--I'm saying actually go to 538 and read some of his articles
OK, even Nate said he fucked up, but YOU still won't admit it:
How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump
Trump’s nomination shows the need for a more rigorous approach.
By Nate Silver
Filed under 2016 Election
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/
Hey Joey the TROLL, what else you got???
This.
66
MrMagic
2017 Nov 7, 12:38pm
MrMagic
2017 Nov 7, 12:38pm
joeyjojojunior says
Like WaPo, are they a conservative hit piece site?
Nate Silver blew it when he missed Trump. Now he really needs to get it right.
..."Silver, 38, had a run of them a few months ago, when it became obvious that his consistent early dismissals of Donald Trump’s chances to be the Republican presidential nominee were flat-out wrong. "
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/nate-silver-blew-it-when-he-missed-trump-now-he-really-needs-to-get-it-right/2016/10/30/82c1f258-9bab-11e6-b3c9-f662adaa0048_story.html?utm_term=.30430a561dff
Don't go to conservative hit piece sites-
Like WaPo, are they a conservative hit piece site?
Nate Silver blew it when he missed Trump. Now he really needs to get it right.
..."Silver, 38, had a run of them a few months ago, when it became obvious that his consistent early dismissals of Donald Trump’s chances to be the Republican presidential nominee were flat-out wrong. "
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/nate-silver-blew-it-when-he-missed-trump-now-he-really-needs-to-get-it-right/2016/10/30/82c1f258-9bab-11e6-b3c9-f662adaa0048_story.html?utm_term=.30430a561dff
67
anonymous
2017 Nov 7, 1:07pm
achieves some successes
————
How much longer are you going to hold your breath? Oh, I almost forgot. Even though they hold absolute power of all branches of government, they are still thwarted by the media and some wimpy string beans at Berkeley.
Do you realize how this makes you look?
————
How much longer are you going to hold your breath? Oh, I almost forgot. Even though they hold absolute power of all branches of government, they are still thwarted by the media and some wimpy string beans at Berkeley.
Do you realize how this makes you look?
68
joeyjojojunior
2017 Nov 7, 1:09pm
Sniper says
That was the primary. I'm talking general election.
OK, even Nate said he fucked up, but YOU still won't admit it:
How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump
Trump’s nomination shows the need for a more rigorous approach.
By Nate Silver
Filed under 2016 Election
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump
That was the primary. I'm talking general election.
69
joeyjojojunior
2017 Nov 7, 1:10pm
PaisleyPattern says
Sure--out of context and very old. Most are 2015 for God's sake.
Look at his writing in Oct and Nov. 2016
Those are his quotes aren’t they?
Sure--out of context and very old. Most are 2015 for God's sake.
Look at his writing in Oct and Nov. 2016
70
joeyjojojunior
2017 Nov 7, 1:13pm
Sniper says
That's also BS.
https://www.good.is/articles/hillary-clinton-negative-press
"It’s no secret that, from the moment she announced her candidacy back in April 2015, Hillary Clinton has been bludgeoned by negative media coverage. The email server; the Wall Street speaking fees; the attacks from both Trump and Sanders. I’ve debated with people who legitimately fear she will be imprisoned before the election. Some, despite the venomous dismissal of my rolling eyes, have called her a murderer. Others: an old woman, a plutocrat, a crook, abused by her husband, no backbone to speak of. But if you’ve suspected that there’s a reason people are saying these things—perhaps parroting disproportionately negative stories they’ve consumed in the media over the past year-and-a-half—it turns out you’re right.
A new report released this week by Harvard Kennedy School’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics, and Public Policy found Clinton has received far more negative coverage than any other candidate in the race thus far. The study was based on an analysis of news statements from CBS, Fox, the Los Angeles Times, NBC, the New York Times, USA Today, the Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Post."
Hillary had 90% of the media on her side
That's also BS.
https://www.good.is/articles/hillary-clinton-negative-press
"It’s no secret that, from the moment she announced her candidacy back in April 2015, Hillary Clinton has been bludgeoned by negative media coverage. The email server; the Wall Street speaking fees; the attacks from both Trump and Sanders. I’ve debated with people who legitimately fear she will be imprisoned before the election. Some, despite the venomous dismissal of my rolling eyes, have called her a murderer. Others: an old woman, a plutocrat, a crook, abused by her husband, no backbone to speak of. But if you’ve suspected that there’s a reason people are saying these things—perhaps parroting disproportionately negative stories they’ve consumed in the media over the past year-and-a-half—it turns out you’re right.
A new report released this week by Harvard Kennedy School’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics, and Public Policy found Clinton has received far more negative coverage than any other candidate in the race thus far. The study was based on an analysis of news statements from CBS, Fox, the Los Angeles Times, NBC, the New York Times, USA Today, the Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Post."
71
anonymous
2017 Nov 7, 1:31pm
joeyjojojunior says
Nate Silver did call it much closer at the end than a lot of others reading the polls.
PaisleyPattern says.Those are his quotes aren’t they?
Sure--out of context and very old. Most are 2015 for God's sake.
Look at his writing in Oct and Nov. 2016
Nate Silver did call it much closer at the end than a lot of others reading the polls.
72
anonymous
2017 Nov 7, 1:39pm
errc says
Trump isn’t really a Republican and doesn’t have the support of the Republican Party. That’s why it he isn’t able to push his agenda. The Republicans are blocking him. I believe eventually he will gain support from both sides of the aisle and will begin to move forward.
achieves some successes
————
How much longer are you going to hold your breath? Oh, I almost forgot. Even though they hold absolute power of all branches of government, they are still thwarted by the media and some wimpy string beans at Berkeley.
Do you realize how this makes you look?
Trump isn’t really a Republican and doesn’t have the support of the Republican Party. That’s why it he isn’t able to push his agenda. The Republicans are blocking him. I believe eventually he will gain support from both sides of the aisle and will begin to move forward.
73
PaisleyPattern
2017 Nov 7, 1:42pm
Trump isn’t really a Republican and doesn’t have the support of the Republican Party. That’s why it he isn’t able to push his agenda. The Republicans are blocking him. I believe eventually he will gain support from both sides of the aisle and will begin to move forward.
74
PaisleyPattern
2017 Nov 7, 2:21pm
The people blocking him most are McCain, Corker and Flake. One has cancer and two are retiring. Trump will soon have control of the party and things will start moving.
75
joeyjojojunior
2017 Nov 7, 3:40pm
Sniper says
It's a Harvard study, you moron.
Just how deep do you have to dig to find links that support your bullshit? Couldn't you find one on Mother Jones or Think Progress?
It's a Harvard study, you moron.
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Sadly, this sounds about right to me.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-first-100-horrific-days-of-a-trump-presidency/2016/11/04/1abca4d2-a286-11e6-a44d-cc2898cfab06_story.html