patrick.net

"Good luck winning a district that's been solid red since the late 70s."

I know!! That shows just how far the country's sentiment has changed in the first 100 days of Trump's administration. Dems have a 50/50 chance of winning a SOLID Republican district. That's why Republicans are freaking out about the midterms.

"As for a higher chance of winning, that's the exact opposite of what the understanding was both before the election by everybody on all sides, and still the opposite of what most are predicting. The people who are saying Ossoff has a hoot in hell in the run-off are partisan Democrats."

Except I already posted a link showing you that you are full of crap.

"Yep, but there's no sign of that in the past two special elections. Both democratic attempts were beaten off handily in Kansas and Ohio. In Georgia,
Price won his district by 24% in November, before he resigned. Mere months ago."

Exactly!!!!!! Isn't it amazing that this SOLID red district is now a toss up?? Dems have gained 20+ pts in both GA and KS districts. Republican Congressmen must be crapping their pants right about now. A 20 point swing in sentiment should translate to about 100 seat gain for Dems in 2018.

Now, granted, that's unlikely to happen. But Dem takeover of the House is certainly possible.

Still waiting for all of Trump's Wall St. regulation. Oh wait--he is DE-REGULATING.

If you thought Obama wasn't tough enough on banks/Wall St.--why the hell did you vote for the guy who is bending over for them night and day?

Why didn't the Democrats reinstate Glass-Steagall in 2009 when they controlled both Houses and the Presidency - they had a clear mandate after the 2008 Election?

-------------

Why haven't your beloved Republicans reinstated G-S?

What have you Republican Sharia jihadists done with your mandate? Why not address Terrorism, which everyone knows begins and ends in Saudi Arabia?

joeyjojojunior says

Still waiting for all of Trump's Wall St. regulation. Oh wait--he is DE-REGULATING.

Why didn't Obama have a horrible record for prosecuting Financial Crimes during his two terms? The lowest number of prosecutions of white collar crimes in 20 years, after one of the greatest financial disasters - and the greatest Taxpayer Bailout - in World History. It should have been 10x the normal prosecutions.

http://trac.syr.edu/tracreports/crim/398/

Jaime Dimon is not in jail but still running the same bank he did during the crisis.

We might never know why Eric H. Holder Jr., the former attorney general, chose to let Wall Street off the hook with just a proverbial slap on the wrist. After six years as attorney general and a short break after leaving government last year, he recently rejoined his old Wall Street law firm, Covington & Burling, in Washington as a partner focused on litigation, complex investigations and regulatory matters.

We know why Failing New York Times, and so do you. Could it maybe, just possibly, be that Holder came from a Legal Firm whose specialty is white collar crimes, and went right back after leaving? Could it possibly be the big meeting Obama had with Big Banks in early 2009, when he told them he was the only thing between them and the mob. Then he launched a Health Care Insurance Company Subsidy to distract from regulating and prosecuting Wall Street.

Elizabeth Warren Certainly wasn't happy about Obama's track record.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/12/elizabeth-warren-obama-banks
http://fortune.com/2016/09/16/elizabeth-warren-wells-fargo-lehman-banks-jail/

Are we talking about Obama or Trump here?

I thought Trump is the President

Like I said--if cracking down on Wall St. and the banks was one of issues you based your vote on, why did you pick the guy exponentially worse than Obama?

joeyjojojunior says

Like I said--if cracking down on Wall St. and the banks was one of issues you based your vote on, why did you pick the guy exponentially worse than Obama?

Let's say Trump and Obama are equally bad. What was the other choice to Regulate Wall Street?

HILLARY CLINTON!?!?!?!?! LOL hahahahahahahahahhahahahahahaha Snoort hahahahahaha
Bill Weld and the Libertarians ??? hahahahahah

NYT Times over election day:

"Let's say Trump and Obama are equally bad. What was the other choice to Regulate Wall Street?"

You mean, let's lie and pretend they are the same? One regulated Wall St and banks. One is deregulating Wall St. and the banks.

Under no possible conditions could anyone ever say those two statements are the same.

errc says

Why didn't the Democrats reinstate Glass-Steagall in 2009 when they controlled both Houses and the Presidency - they had a clear mandate after the 2008 Election?

Errc, why did the Democrats win in 2008?

Why did they lose in 2009?

Clearly the media didn't understand probabilities, dependent variables, and typical margins of errors in Presidential polling.

538 gave Trump ~34% chance of winning. Which was correct.

marcus says

About 33%.

Many dImbulbs rightwingers will gleefully tell you that that means they were wrong.

When probabilities are used, both sides are always right. Then who loses?

"Really??? Is that why they were oversampling by YYuuggee margins to try and keep Hillary in the lead in the polls??"

They weren't oversampling as you have been shown over and over. I'm afraid it's a bit too complicated for you to understand.

"Nate was WRONG throughout the complete election cycle, to keep using him as your "benchmark" is foolish."

Nate's opinion that Trump would melt down was wrong. Nate's models, however, were very good and his predictions based on them were well done.

Back to the original topic for a second:
KING: The Democratic Party seems to have no earthly idea why it is so damn unpopular

In other words, the Democratic Party has a favorability rating 11 points lower than Pence, nine points lower than Trump, and even one point lower than the GOP.

Their unfavorable rating is 17 points worse than Pence, five points worse than Trump, and four points worse than the GOP.

The Democratic Party is less popular than Trump or Pence.
http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/3_7_2017_tables.pdf

Lashkar_i_Trumpi says

errc says

Why didn't the Democrats reinstate Glass-Steagall in 2009 when they controlled both Houses and the Presidency - they had a clear mandate after the 2008 Election?

Errc, why did the Democrats win in 2008?

Why did they lose in 2009?

I see. The Trumpcucks are reduced to comparing their idol to Bama and Clinton. Why did you answer my question with a question?

"Back to the original topic for a second"

What do you think the original topic is exactly?

errc says

Most importantly I vote on Constitutional Rights like Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. This includes Healthcare as the most important one, and protecting the Individual from being harmed by Republican Fascist legislation like Obamacare which was penned by Republicans at The Heritage Foundation, and supported by almost all Republicans.

Let's just examine this statement for accuracy. Constitutional rights like life
-nobody has a right to life. In fact, the mortality rate is and has always been 100%! What you have a right to is due process before the legal system takes away your life.
Liberty
Nobody has a right to that either! And what does it even mean? Freedom to do what you want? For sure that isn't allowed, and especially not guaranteed by any mysterious constitutional right.
Pursuit of happiness? Hah! It is to laugh. You're quoting Jefferson from the Declaration of Independence, not the bloody Constitution!
A right to Healthcare? Not currently, and not constitutionally!

You know, for someone who likes to go around calling people "willfully ignorant," you seem to fit the bill of lading.
Better lay off the pot.

joeyjojojunior says

Nate's models, however, were very good and his predictions based on them were well done

I guess you grade for "form" instead of accuracy, adherence to political norms instead of truth. Nate couldn't have been more wrong about everything related to this election.
He was looking at the size of Goliath, his huge spear and sword, and impenetrable armor. He should have been looking at David's sling and the fact that he was deadly accurate with a weapon that could fire nearly as fast as a .45 caliber round. Goliath never stood a chance.

"Sure thing Tatty. Nate had Hillary up in the 80% - 90% range up until the last day or two (when he had his "oh shit" moment). But keep believing the party line... "

Incorrect. Nate had HIllary in the 80% range when she had a 8-9% lead. When the Comey stuff came out and the lead shrunk to 4%, he adjusted the probability accordingly.

"And that would be a lie, as I showed over and over again, the history of all those oversampled polls are here, go refresh your memory:

https://patrick.net/users/Ironman"

The only thing you showed was your lack of understanding.

joeyjojojunior says

What do you think the original topic is exactly?

"Trump is doing well so far"

Being viewed more favorably than the Democratic Party and the Media, his primary detractors, is an indicator of this.

errc says

I see. The Trumpcucks are reduced to comparing their idol to Bama and Clinton. Why did you answer my question with a question?

"Socratic method" and "Comparing among choices".

To repeat, the only viable choice to Trump was $200k+/ Speech Hillary, who earned a total of $22M from her post-SOS 'speaking tour', with heavy appearances at Banks, from Goldman to Itau. Where she explained her "Public and Private Positions on Policies"

https://theintercept.com/2016/10/07/excerpts-of-hillary-clintons-paid-speeches-to-goldman-sachs-finally-leaked/

Oh, I forgot her "Private Position" on Simpson-Bowles:

At a speech for Morgan Stanley on April 18, 2013, Clinton praised the Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction plan — which would reduce corporate tax rates while raising the Social Security age. “But Simpson-Bowles — and I know you heard from Erskine earlier today — put forth the right framework. Namely, we have to restrain spending, we have to have adequate revenues, and we have to incentivize growth. It’s a three-part formula,” she said.

"Namely, we have to restrain spending, we have to have adequate revenues, and we have to incentivize growth. It’s a three-part formula,” she said."

Oh my Gawd! She said she agrees with the idea of reducing spending and incentivizing growth?? SCANDAL!!!!!!!!! SCANDAL!!!!!!!!!

I love that you continue to bring up Clinton, though. You do realize the election was almost 6 months ago, right?

I give him a B+/A-. There is still room for improvement.

Peter P says

I give him a B+/A-. There is still room for improvement.

I agree.

Has he got the money for The Wall from Mexico yet?
Is he profiting from his private businesses while being a Big Govt. SOCIALIST.
How much have you paid for his golfing trips?
A+ for fucking the American people.

Trump idiots are in Bliss.
The rest of us are PISSED.

rando says

How much have you paid for his golfing trips?

A+ for fucking the American people.

How much did we pay for Obama's golfing trips?

Trump does not have an idea of his own. He has two conflicting narratives based on the two camps he keeps in the WH.

The first camp is Steve Bannon and Breitbart. These are populist, nationalist right wingers.They hate TPP, H1Bs, China, baby boomers and wall street. They love the military and middle america.

The second camp is the wall street crowd. Gary Cohn and Jared Kushner. These guys are globalists that do not want to harm anything that will make them more money. They love wall street, want to trade with china and want to keep H1Bs. They're supported by their CEO friends who all they care about is making "shareholders" richer.

Right now Trump is leaning more towards the Globalists in his policy. Yes he's dropped TPP but we do not know what he will replace it with. Everything else is hogwash. He's done nothing with H1Bs, done nothing with health care and is starting a war with North Korea to distract the fact that he's done nothing with china.

I just wish people stopped supporting candidates like they support a basketball team.

To me the funniest part is people saying how great he is by not taking a 400K salary. In the meantime Melania is at NY costing tax payers 100k a day. Such fucking idiots.

CurrentRuin says

Right now Trump is leaning more towards the Globalists in his policy. Yes he's dropped TPP but we do not know what he will replace it with. Everything else is hogwash. He's done nothing with H1Bs, done nothing with health care and is starting a war with North Korea to distract the fact that he's done nothing with china.

Yep, and notice how the Media has toned down the Criticism since he bombed Syria and said no sanction removal on Russia.

it's almost as if there is an elite consensus on these things, immune from Democracy.

Or after 8 years of Obama, the banks are even too bigger to fail then they were when he took office.

Lashkar_i_Trumpi says

it's almost as if there is an elite consensus on these things, immune from Democracy.

Yes, the "elite consensus" and how it's immune from Democracy was a major theme of the book "Listen Liberal!"

https://patrick.net/1305081/2017-04-17-the-9-and-their-alliance-with-the-1-destroyed-the-democratic-party

Trump slipped past the elite consensus that could never be elected, and it's a joy to behold if for that reason alone. Democracy actually worked, briefly, in spite of the elite's best efforts to undermine it.

Looks like voters in France and Netherlands are not ready to think outside of the box.

CurrentRuin says

I just wish people stopped supporting candidates like they support a basketball team

Spot on

"Trump slipped past the elite consensus that could never be elected, and it's a joy to behold if for that reason alone. Democracy actually worked, briefly, in spite of the elite's best efforts to undermine it."

The problem with this argument is you assume people are against Trump because he's not "one of the elite". When, in fact, people are against him because he's proven to be a complete buffoon at every opportunity. His last interview with AP was so incoherent that parts of it couldn't even be transcribed. Idiocracy, indeed.

80% of the people who voted trump already know this.
You have a hard time focusing on the fact the reason he is in office is to throw a wrench into the machine, for better or worse.
Decades and decades of the same deep state shit ain't cuttin it anymore...

joeyjojojunior says

The problem with this argument is you assume people are against Trump because he's not "one of the elite". When, in fact, people are against him because he's proven to be a complete buffoon at every opportunity. His last interview with AP was so incoherent that parts of it couldn't even be transcribed. Idiocracy, indeed.

Excellent.
For once a person in charge without a deep state agenda...
Expect the worst, but hope for the best.

CurrentRuin says

Trump does not have an idea of his own.

"You have a hard time focusing on the fact the reason he is in office is to throw a wrench into the machine, for better or worse"

When does the wrench throwing start? Because he looks just like the typical Republican to me. Tax cuts for the rich. Doing corporate America's bidding--removing regulation, lowering corporate tax rates. Am I missing all his tear down the system work?

rando says

Democracy actually worked, briefly, in spite of the elite's best efforts to undermine it.

Your definition of "the elite" is far far different than mine. In my world the elite won this election like they've never won before. You're still drooling over the shell of the trojan horse, and the elite (the very worst of the elite) have climbed out of the belly of that trojan horse for everyone to see as you scream repeatedly, YAAAAY,....BRAVO,...AWESOME,....THIS IS SO COOL !!!!

Don't boycott Republican elites.
BOYCOTT ALL Republicans!

rando says

Lashkar_i_Trumpi says

it's almost as if there is an elite consensus on these things, immune from Democracy.

Yes, the "elite consensus" and how it's immune from Democracy was a major theme of the book "Listen Liberal!"

https://patrick.net/1305081/2017-04-17-the-9-and-their-alliance-with-the-1-destroyed-the-democratic-party

Trump slipped past the elite consensus that could never be elected, and it's a joy to behold if for that reason alone. Democracy actually worked, briefly, in spite of the elite's best efforts to undermine it.

True. Also more evidence that democracy can be ugly. Elected officials are just the product of legitimized mob rule. The best form of government? Perhaps, until the mob goes off the deep end. I think that the mob got it right this time in the choice between a lying narcissist and Hilary Clinton. But who's to say that democracy always gets it right?

marcus says

Your definition of "the elite" is far far different than mine.

True. I'm talking about the media and academic elite (the 9%) which despises the middle of the country.

https://patrick.net/1305081/2017-04-17-the-9-and-their-alliance-with-the-1-destroyed-the-democratic-party