patrick.net

"That's not what Nate Silver is saying in that summary. You actually don't understand what he's talking about, let alone his model."

hahaha. Sorry, I said 2% and Nate said 3%. Please forgive me.

And of course I disagree. Your analysis is completely off. You're wrong. His model worked perfectly. And his data was fine--within the normal range of error for a Presidential election. We had a very high number of undecided in 2016 and they broke heavily for Trump. (and what has never happened in the modern era?)

joeyjojojunior says

And of course I disagree. Your analysis is completely off. You're wrong. His model worked perfectly. And his data was fine--within the normal range of error for a Presidential election. We had a very high number of undecided in 2016 and they broke heavily for Trump. (and what has never happened in the modern era?)

So 95% of the polling firms had bum data? In his 3 month rolling aggregate only Marist College had it correct before the election. You don't see that as highly unlikely?

Why don't you just admit he had shit data? That's not even a critical comment against your hero, he even claims before the election that it's a distinct possibility (we all now know that the polls he was aggregating were completely biased and tainted).

Deplorable.

I love the rewriting of history. The Media was dancing around with Poll Numbers and Election Models like Palestinians with the bloody shirt of a Hamas Terrorist, claiming that only Nutjobs disbelieved in the DATA - the DATA mind you, That Can't Be Dismissed, Hard Numbers, dontcha understand, Don't Be a Dumbass Math Denier, Don't even Bother voting to Vote Trump!

Now it's like "We NEVER said Hillary was going to win in a landslide".

Ironically, the promotion of inevitable Hillary might have caused her to lose by giving people permission to stay home and not vote.

I think my "Cat Lady will Netflix and Chill" prediction was better than Nate.

"So 95% of the polling firms had bum data? In his 3 month rolling aggregate only Marist College had it correct before the election. You don't see that as highly unlikely?"

Nope--there is always error in polling data. 2016 was within the expected error, especially when you consider that there was a much larger undecided % vs. the last 4 election cycles. National polling had it pretty close--Clinton did win by about 2 points.

"I love the rewriting of history. The Media was dancing around with Poll Numbers and Election Models like Palestinians with the bloody shirt of a Hamas Terrorist, claiming that only Nutjobs disbelieved in the DATA - the DATA mind you, That Can't Be Dismissed, Hard Numbers, dontcha understand, Don't Be a Dumbass Math Denier, Don't even Bother voting to Vote Trump!"

Most the media are idiots and didn't understand how to interpret the data.

joeyjojojunior says

Nope--there is always error in polling data.

Yes, but 95% of the national polls were off with only one being correct? Do you know how statistically improbable that is in a supposedly unbiased, untainted sample? Go ahead, calculate it.

You still think the data he was inserting into his model was sound?

"Yes, but 95% of the national polls were off with only one being correct? Do you know how statistically improbable that is in a supposedly unbiased, untainted sample? Go ahead, calculate it. You still think the data he was inserting into his model was sound?"

First--it's been shown that late deciders broke for Trump, so it's not clear that any polls were "wrong" They measured a value at a point in time different than the point in time in which the election votes were cast.

Second-- Clinton won by 2.1%. The average of the national polls taken on Monday was 2.9%. That's pretty damn good.

joeyjojojunior says

"Yes, but 95% of the national polls were off with only one being correct? Do you know how statistically improbable that is in a supposedly unbiased, untainted sample? Go ahead, calculate it. You still think the data he was inserting into his model was sound?"

First--it's been shown that late deciders broke for Trump, so it's not clear that any polls were "wrong" They measured a value at a point in time different than the point in time in which the election votes were cast.

Second-- Clinton won by 2.1%. The average of the national polls taken on Monday was 2.9%. That's pretty damn good.

Yes, we knew late voters voted for Trump LATER, after the election was in full swing because of exit polling. That has nothing to do with Nate Silver's projection. This is why the New York Times probability graph changed so dramatically in 24 hours, but that's just proving my point about how bad the data was from aggregated national polls. They were ALL off, including Nate Silver's prediction.

I seriously think you would be doing yourself some justice by taking a simple Lynda.com course online for free and learning about the concept of Discrete probability distribution. Without you having SOME basic knowledge of how probability is actually calculated, this is not a very productive discussion for either of us because you lack basic knowledge to understand the basis of what we're debating. This is not a critique of you as a person, I'm sure you're intelligent, but I graduated from Wharton Business school and spent a decades long career in banking as a Senior Analyst at places like Goldman Sachs, a lot of what we're talking about, and what you're clearly missing are very, very basic concepts. The fact that only Marist College was the only data point out of a 3 month rolling period that even came close to showing a Trump win vs 95%+ of every other national poll is very, very improbable in light of the results (Trump win) unless the sampling was tainted (which we now know it was). That's why Nate Silver's prediction was so wrong.

CBOEtrader says

Straw Man says

Who gives a fuck?

Can't wait until DNC data team starts fingering hillary

Ewww, that's disgusting!

No--it means that people that polled as undecided actually decided after the poll was taken that they would vote for Trump. The poll wasn't biased or wrong, people changed from undecided to Trump. Data was correct at the time it was taken.

All the rest of your condescending post is obviously you trying to cover up for your mistakes.

I'm quite certain that I am much more well versed in probability and statistics than you are. You don't even seem to be able to differentiate between a raw polling percentage and a percentage derived from model calculating a candidate's probability of winning 270 electoral votes.

joeyjojojunior says

Second-- Clinton won by 2.1%

Earth to jojo! Trump won the election! He didn't win a poll and didn't have to! Popular vote only counts at the state level not the national level. Duh! The OP stated that HRC ignored inconvenient data from three critical state polls! Maybe they were so focused on the favorable national polls that they forgot the rules of the election?

"Earth to jojo! Trump won the election! He didn't win a poll and didn't have to! Popular vote only counts at the state level not the national level. Duh! The OP stated that HRC ignored inconvenient data from three critical state polls! Maybe they were so focused on the favorable national polls that they forgot the rules of the election?"

No shit. And Trump did lead in polls, national and state.

And I'm agreeing with the DNC. Read what I write please.

Also--could you post this Marist poll that you think had the correct methodology?

Here's what I find:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/115-final-push-clinton-and-trump-close-nationally/

Looks about the same as most polls although it underestimated Clinton's support nationally.

try prunes?
joeyjojojunior says

No shit.

joeyjojojunior says

The poll wasn't biased or wrong, people changed from undecided to Trump.

Yes, they were biased and wrong. This isn't even something that's debatable anymore since we have the data and have gone over it for months since the election. In fact these same polls CONTINUE to oversample/undersample for everything from approval polls to issue polls. Take for instance the ABC News/WaPO National Poll in January gauging Trump's favorables, a poll that featured prominently in Silver's data. Also consider that according to Gallup the most recent breakdown of their party identification statistic breaks down like this; 29% Republican / 40% Independent / 28% Democrat / 3% other.

31% democrats, 23% republican, and 37 percent independent. That's a 8+ point SWING towards Democrats in that poll alone. You think that poll is not tainted by bias?

CNN has also been caught loading 8-10 point partisan gaps into their polls regularly.

Like I said, Lynda.com is free, and I'll chip in for an upgraded account so you can take a few courses.

It's not even debatable anymore?? Really? The average of polling data on Nov. 8th was Clinton +2.9 and the final election tally was Clinton +2.1. It's not possible that undecided voters accounted for 0.8% of the vote in Trump's favor?

You really are a CIC alt, aren't you? That was his favorite topic--the supposed polling bias in favor of Dems. Only the results are amazingly accurate for having any bias. Or are you saying this bias accounted for 0.8% of the vote?

joeyjojojunior says

You really are a CIC alt, aren't you? That was his favorite topic--the supposed polling bias in favor of Dems.

Are you actually denying that ABC News/WaPO and CNN engaged in poll loading?

Are you actually saying that pollsters whose job and livelihood depends on accurate results purposely made such an obvious mistake as oversampling Dems? That's what you think?

joeyjojojunior says

Are you actually saying that pollsters whose job and livelihood depends on accurate results purposely made such an obvious mistake as oversampling Dems? That's what you think?

CNN depends on accurate polling results for its livelihood?

CNN doesn't equal pollsters.

The network doesn't rely on it, but the employees who CNN pays to get polling data certainly do.

joeyjojojunior says

CNN doesn't equal pollsters.

The network doesn't rely on it, but the employees who CNN pays to get polling data certainly do.

Yeah that makes a lot of sense, the pollsters who work for CNN wouldn't dare manipulate data even if it didn't agree with the narrative CNN was trying to push. CNN being a network of the utmost trustworthiness would always expect perfectly sampled, non-loaded, completely unbiased polling data.

Ah, the CNN is biased narrative. So, I'm assuming the CNN polls were wildly different than other polling firms then, right? Since they were trying to push a specific agenda that others weren't?

Oh, wait, the CNN results are similar to everyone else? I guess you're wrong again.

Goran, just ignore joey/tatupu. It's obvious he lives in denial or is just trolling you.

He's like the fat obnoxious kid at the party who thinks he's always right and won't shut the fuck up. Even when he's blatantly wrong.

joshuatrio says

Oh, wait, the CNN results are similar to everyone else?

Yes! Did you notice how 95% of the MSM media got the election completely and utterly wrong? It proves my point. Nate Silver's model was compromised by loaded, tainted data.

joshuatrio says

Goran, just ignore joey/tatupu. It's obvious he lives in denial or is just trolling you.

He's like the fat obnoxious kid at the party who thinks he's always right and won't shut the fuck up. Even when he's blatantly wrong.

Probably trolling, but if not, I would like to see how far people will travel up "the nile" to avoid the truth. For purely entertainment purposes.

Obligatory:

"Yes! Did you notice how 95% of the MSM media got the election completely and utterly wrong? It proves my point. Nate Silver's model was compromised by loaded, tainted data."

So, that actually proves my point. CNN didn't have any alternative agenda as they agreed with all the polling data that was out there.

I still haven't heard any explanation for why all these biased polls, when averaged, were only 0.8% off. Care to take a crack at it?

"Goran, just ignore joey/tatupu. It's obvious he lives in denial or is just trolling you."

So, proving that Goran wrong is now considered trolling? Great.

What exactly am I in denial of? That the polling was well within normal error bars?

joeyjojojunior says

So, that actually proves my point. CNN didn't have any alternative agenda as they agreed with all the polling data that was out there.

True, they didn't have an "alternative agenda", I think it was pretty obvious ABC/WaPO/NYT/CNN all had the same agenda.

Goran_K says

True, they didn't have an "alternative agenda", I think it was pretty obvious ABC/WaPO/NYT/CNN all had the same agenda.

And don't forget such liberal bastions as FOX, Wall St. Journal, Economist. They were clearly in on it too as their polling matched everyone else's.

Yep, all three were anti-Trump, the first two until he was inevitable.

TwoScoopsMcGee says

Yep, all three were anti-Trump, the first two until he was inevitable.

They weren't anti-Trump on Nov. 8th.

joeyjojojunior says

They weren't anti-Trump on Nov. 8th.

The Economist has been and still is anti-Trump and endorsed Hillary for her Private Policy of Bank Love.

joeyjojojunior says

FOX, Wall St. Journal, Economist

True.

WSJ and Economist were definitely anti-trump.

FOX was 50/50 depending on who was reporting (Megyn Kelly was one of the most vocal anti-trumpers on MSM and worked for FOX during the election).

Not that it matters. ABC News/WaPO was weighted nearly twice as high as FOX in Nate Silver's model anyway.

Goran_K says

Not that it matters. ABC News/WaPO was weighted nearly twice as high as FOX in Nate Silver's model anyway

Of course it was. Silver weighted on past performance.

Still waiting for the explanation of how a 0.8% difference from Nov. 8th polling to actual result on Nov. 9th constitutes a major miss and evidence of a biased methodology. Especially since its pretty well founded that late deciders went for Trump.

joeyjojojunior says

Still waiting for the explanation of how a 0.8% difference from Nov. 8th polling to actual result on Nov. 9th constitutes a major miss and evidence of a biased methodology. Especially since its pretty well founded that late deciders went for Trump.

What? Literally no one has made that argument in this thread.

We're telling you that 95% of the national polls being wrong is almost unheard of for any national issue. Even with Brexit, the polls were 40/60, 30/70, but 95/5? That's called story telling.

Goran_K says

We're telling you that 95% of the national polls being wrong is almost unheard of for any national issue. Even with Brexit, the polls were 40/60, 30/70, but 95/5? That's called story telling.

Actually you have made that very argument in your last dozen posts at least. You are just not well versed enough to realize it.

I'll help you understand--how is being off by 0.8% considered "wrong"? What do you consider "right"?

Goran_K says

Why, this is a great example of a model being proved right. Moving 180 degrees in the span of a few hours.

Ah, so you are seeing your mistake now?

I've said all along that for sure most of the MSM models were shit. They didn't account for dependency of many of the probabilities and underestimated the error of polls with such high levels of undecided voters.