patrick.net

But,… what about the fact that Bay Area homes prices reached an all time record high of $625,000?

How come we can ‘t have a rationale discussion about this? I don’t get it.

Median doesn't mean much......Just an article by some realtor who is making it out to be more than it really is....for every one of those, there are a thousand others referring to the bust. All it takes is one seriously stupid sheeple to buy a house at a high price on the high end of the market and the median will go higher. There are very fewer sheeple left to buy....and I'm glad if all the rest of them buy in now so that come spring time, the crash will be more pronounced. :)

"But,… what about the fact that Bay Area homes prices reached an all time record high of $625,000?

How come we can ‘t have a rationale discussion about this? I don’t get it." --Lulu

Well Lulu, there's just not much to discuss--I mean Bay Area homes just reached a RECORD HIGH! It speaks for itself, doesn't it?! And how many records have they broken already? No doubt they will keep breaking records forever! Bay Area homes have now risen far more over the past five years than they have over any five year period in history. And now that this train is in motion Lulu, it's got momentum--ain't nothin' gonna stop this runaway housing market train baby! I know you don't want to miss the train Lulu--there it is, leaving the station right now! You need to get into this market honey, RIGHT NOW!! Don't you realize that if you don't buy now you may never, ever, ever get to buy a house in your LIFE?! I mean Bay Area homes just reached a RECORD HIGH honey!! If you thought this past five years of housing growth was a wild ride you ain't seen nothin' yet! You know and I know that Real Estate prices in the Bay Area never go down, so don't listen to this discussion board full of losers. They're not getting on the train with you and me baby. We're going to leave them far, far behind. Now get out there and buy as many condos as you can--DO NOT, I repeat DO NOT listen to any of this crap about getting a "safe mortgage"--whatever the Hell that means. You get whatever mortgages you need to afford as much Real Estate as you can buy--and don't even worry about the total cost you're going to pay for this stuff--all you need to worry about is can you make those monthly payments? You know that you've bought enough property when you can afford to buy food and nothing else--all the rest of your income will be going to making your mortgage payments. This is all you have to do and I can guarantee you that you are going to be a Trillionaire. Now get out there and buy buy buy! And don't you forget this: Bay Area homes just reached a RECORD HIGH!

But to speak of the Germans as a ‘race’ lands us in precisely the pickle that we’re trying to avoid, doesn’t it? Volkishness?

Ok, then let's split some hair and call it "discrimination against one's nationality". The effect is the same.

@Girgl Just telling you how it is.

What a presumptuous fuckwad, I think you meant to say, "how it is in my book". English, it's not just for the Hun anymore. Ok, just for the "record" being "German" is no more an indicator of race than being "Amerikan". For your education, fuckwad, "Americans suck ass and are generally stupid fucking pigs that fill their empty shallow lives with trips to the strip mall" is not now nor ever will be racist. "Germans are hated world-wide because they are obnoxious, even more than the Americans, and have given their best try at whitewashing their history" is likewise not now nor ever will be racist.

Ok, then let’s split some hair and call it “discrimination against one’s nationality”. The effect is the same.

No, it's not, how's the air up on that soap-box? Just curious, were you so self-fucking-righteous when The Hun was putting forth the idea that most Americans were fat and lazy? Kindly put the beret back on, choogle back to Telegraph and get "real". A group hug with the patolui crowd should do wonders for your ruffled feathers, and why oh why can't we all jst get a bong?

How's this, I fucking hate hippies, personally I think they should have their hair forcibly washed and their bongs broken, to quote Cartman, "hippies want to change the world but all they do is bother people and smell bad". When one arrives here and tries to clean-state their past, tries to tell a long long long time Californian "how it is", yes i become offended. I thought it well advised to remind them of their history. Please go take mommy and daddies credit card, buy another tall mocha latte and learn the correct definitions of words.

For your futher "education" this is from miriamwebster

racism
One entry found for racism.

Main Entry: rac·ism
Pronunciation: 'rA-"si-z&m also -"shi-
Function: noun
1 : a belief that race is the primary determinant of human traits and capacities and that racial differences produce an inherent superiority of a particular race

You see, fuckwad, when the Hun puts forth their opinions as they were fact, and when the Hun has a historic record of that indicates race is the primary determinant of human traits and capacities and that racial differences produce an inherent superiority of a particular race, that makes their opinion highly suspect in "my book". Again, straighten up the Beret and enjoy your latte, fuckwad.

@Girgl

because you may or may not be a member of some minority doesn’t mean you can now say everything about everybody.

No, actually this does: Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

Actually I can say what ever i fucking want about anyone, how’s this, i really really really really really dislike the radically religious , and I would like to see all the greedy boomers live out the rest of their shallow lives drinking expired Assure in a shitty old folks home (oh, sorry my bad, I meant "elder care facility", fuckwad). Or better yet, I think greedy dishonest RealtorsTM should have their thumbs cut off, along with their equally as malfeasant appraiser buddies.

So it political incorrectness offends you, maybe you should think about finding another RE blog because the rest of us have come to think of Surfer-X as part of the core group that posts here, and I bet most people would vote enthusiatically to keep him around as much as possible.

SQT you are the most level headed person I have ever encountered, you rock ;)

If you're not offened, you're not paying attention. Offensive? not half as much as watching fucking morons swagger around thinking they are rich because they just extracted 100K in equity. Offensive? not nearly as much as watching California tumble to the bottom of school ratings while yuppie fuckwads buy another hummer with their equity. Offensive? Not nearly as much as watching my friends, who have worked thier fucking asses off, being pushed out of their hometown by carpet-bagging dickweeds who are solely here to make a quick buck. Fuck them.

Man, I am so fucking pissed in my fervor to rebut I spilled my '73 BV Georges de latour. Fuck.

"What makes a small shithole condo go up 200k in value in just three months.?" --moonvalley

Quite simply, an asset bubble created by our very own Federal Reserve Bank--a mistake they've made before. The FED cut interest rates too low and kept them too low too long in order to stave off a recession after 9/11 and (Oooops!) created the current housing bubble. Historically, when money is cheap (low interest rates) and credit is easy to attain, asset price inflation always occurs as the cheap money is used to buy assets. Or, to quote Peter Schiff of EuroPacific Capital:

"The mistake made by the Fed during the 1920's was expanding the supply of money and credit too rapidly. However, as increasing productivity prevented consumer prices from rising, the Fed was unconcerned about the inflation it was creating. Instead, the excess money and credit that spilled into financial and real estate markets caused asset prices to rise, which resulted in claims of a 'new era' (sound familiar?). The bust of 1929 led to the Great Depression of the 1930's not as a result of Fed tightening, as Bernanke claims, but due to the misguided economic policies of the Hoover and Roosevelt administrations."

"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

That's why I still love America despite how fucked up it has gotten.

Surfer-X says:
You see, fuckwad, when the Hun puts forth their opinions as they were fact, and when the Hun has a historic record of that indicates race is the primary determinant of human traits and capacities and that racial differences produce an inherent superiority of a particular race, that makes their opinion highly suspect in “my book”. Again, straighten up the Beret and enjoy your latte, fuckwad.

I've had it with ignorant assholes like you who think they're somehow morally or otherwise superior with the only reason being that they're "not German", especially because all those wankers invariably know, want to know and ever will know about Germany is what Hollywood has chosen to present to them in order to make a quick buck, and what they have watched to get both a cheap little thrill and the warm fuzzies because obviously they're *better*.

I've had it *especially* with the kind of ignorant assholes who think it's a cool and acceptable move to play the "you must be a Nazi mass murderer or at least endorse these crimes just because you're German" card.

You really wanna relive WWII? You want to play the "count the war crimes" game? No? Then why the hell do you conjure up the ghosts of the past with that stupid drivel?

Guess what, from now on your pathetic little identity will cross my hun mind whenever "ugly Amerikan" (sic) is up, even though you obviously think you're far superior to your fellow countrymen by virtue of not being a "fat-ass boomer".

About the constitutional right to free speech:
I surely did not want to imply that anything or anyone in this country is keeping you from making a complete idiot out of yourself.

Oh yeah, speaking of freedom of speech: Hopefully your little army of cheerleaders won't be too offended by *my* liberal use of profanity since they love yours so much.

And guess what, wanker, just in case you're now again ready to squirt out the "Arbeit macht frei" killer argument:
My own grandfather died in a concentration camp.

He fell off the watchtower, piss drunk.

Chew on this, arrogant dick.

My own grandfather died in a concentration camp.

He fell off the watchtower, piss drunk.

Nice, I take it you are a Hun?

Surfer-X says:
Nice, I take it you are a Hun?

Of course. How else could I have such a bad sense of humor.

What's odd is that I heard that same joke from a visiting student from Aachen, must be a Hun thing. Aachen is an amazing place; Charlemagne’s 8th century cathedral is there. What’s even more amazing is that the 101st leveled it when they entered Germany, and you studious German’s put it right back together again. Deutschland uber alles, fuck yeah, suck my ass and lick my balls.

You really wanna relive WWII? You want to play the “count the war crimes” game? No? Sure, lets see, a war of aggression, racial and ethnic cleansing, but I’ve really got to give it to you, the German V2 designers really showed their stuff on the Saturn IV.

Sure. Lets start with the fact that a vary small minority of Germans were actually in the SS, yet the SS effectively policed an entire nation, what does that say about the inherent German character? I love the EU thingy the Deutschbank put forth, hell at least you're not rolling Panzers across the Arden again. Funny thing when ones history is too horrible to address, perhaps you’d be better served taking a long hard look at what makes a Nation so xenophobic and willing to commit such horrific crimes.

Good to hear your Grandfather had such a good time at the camps. Mine, unfortunately did not, you see the sucking chest wound at Basting kind of killed the party.

Shit sorry, housing, yeah housing sucks. Too over priced, but hey, at least we're not freezing our asses off in Germany wondering why we can't buy bread on a Sunday.

-Basting
+Bastogne

But hey, to be fair the Altbier I had in Dusseldorf really rocked, go Zum Uerige. Had the greatest humor moment in Japan, was at Mijima Island and there were these white tourists and the marines that were there were amazed that I knew they were german. I explained, if you see a guy that looks like he is gay but has a girl with him and thus he isn't likely, he's German, either that or he's trying out for an episode of Sprockets w/Deiter

Surfer-X says:
Sure. Lets start with the fact that a vary small minority of Germans were actually in the SS, yet the SS effectively policed an entire nation, what does that say about the inherent German character?

Aside from the fact that it was a bit more complicated than that with the whole policing thing, you really really think that the U.S. population as a whole, being in the *exact* same circumstances, would behave differently?
Be a nation of rebels and fight tooth and nail against the evil oppressor (who, by the way, just cut their taxes, got everybody back to work, built affordable housing and made education for their children free)?
If so, dream on.

Shmend says:
‘hey so we tried to take over the world and almost exterminated an entire ethnic group. water under the bridge!’

That's *exactly* what I'm talking about. You obviously didn't get the point.

Shmend says:
‘hey so we tried to take over the world and almost exterminated an entire ethnic group. water under the bridge!’

And just because the point seems so hard to understand, I'll elaborate a bit.

I was born in 1964. My dad was born in 1940. My mom was born in 1942.

The only thing I can imagine that could give you the idea to associate me *personally* with the Nazi war crimes is that you must believe that there's something in *my* genes that makes me predisposed for these kinds of crimes, or the thought processes that lead to it, and something in *your* genes that makes you immune from all these nasty things.

Now what was the definition of racism again? (courtesy of Surfer-X):
1 : a belief that race is the primary determinant of human traits and capacities and that racial differences produce an inherent superiority of a particular race

I hope this is out of the way now.

what does that say about the inherent German character?

I think it says more about assumptions of German character.

Isn't it rather easy to lob accusations across the Atlantic--than discuss those dark periods of American history? Holy crap, are we the standard by which to judge the world? Enough said--this topic shouldn't be the subject of this blog.

@Girgl, hey sorry if I offened, oh shit, wait a moment, could you elaborate on the whole treatment of "other races" in modern Germany? I am especially curious as I have many many Turkish friends.

The only thing I can imagine that could give you the idea to associate me *personally* with the Nazi war crimes is that you must believe that there’s something in *my* genes that makes me predisposed for these kinds of crimes, or the thought processes that lead to it, and something in *your* genes that makes you immune from all these nasty things.

Curious that one generation removed is capable of whitewashing genocide. I wonder if the Hun will be so gentle when they re-write early 21st century Amerikan history.

KurtS, what the fuck are you talking about? You mean the Plains tribes didn't want small-pox infected blankets?

what is this ________________ I've heard so much about?

Witness the exclusion of the Turks from the EU, backed and pushed by the Germans. Funny that Germans can thumb their chest and cry out that they are being unfairly judged on the crimes of their grandfathers when their country is still practicing the same bullshit. Have any Turkish friends? I do. Ask them about race relations in Germany and then get back to me.

Fuck.
-thumb
+thump

nighty night all.

SQT what's on the gift list far as children this year? Gots me some nephews, 3 and 5, boyz, what's a good gift for them? Personally I'd get them bats, goggles and glass bottles, but I think my sister wouldn't appreciate it.

Germany is really cool

I concur. what I've always found odd is when someone really really takes offensive at things like "amerikans suck". I don't get offened. I can see that yes, we suck. Germany is cool, but it has still has strong xenophobic elements, as does japan, does this mean every german or nihon-jin is sucky, no. And to intrepret as such implies either an inferiority complex or something that i can't define. I'm a half mexican, half amerikan asshole, I do not care if you talk as much shit as you want about amerikan, mexicans or assholes. Because you are not addressing me personally.

Germans suck, does this mean that you Girgl suck, no it does not.
Amerikans suck, does this mean that Sunnyvale renter sucks, no it does not.
Boomers suck, does this mean Jack sucks, no it does not.

Fuck.

Don't count Turkey out of the EU just yet. England is a strong backer of them, playing the old "Great Game" of the periphery against the centre.

I know Germany is worried about a flood of Turkish immigrants, but I suspect that Turkey will join the EU, sooner rather than later.

Surfer-X it is too bad you could not make the blog party. I was looking forward to meeting you in person. Maybe next time.

Surfer-X says:
@Girgl, hey sorry if I offened, oh shit, wait a moment, could you elaborate on the whole treatment of “other races” in modern Germany? I am especially curious as I have many many Turkish friends.

Let me explain again. This is really hard to get, I'm sure.

Whatever happens to Turks in Germany has obviously nothing to do with me, since I'm obviously not even located in Germany, and even if I was, how the fuck would you know whether I personally was responsible for any of the things that happen to them?

The fact that I have a German passport and German ancestry does not make me responsible for whatever happens or ever has happened in Germany, with the exception of what I have actually done (and you obviously don't have the slightest idea of what that might be, correct?).
Just the same can I not be associated with whatever happened during the Nazi era because I was not even born at the time, nor do I want to hear constantly about it if I happen to offend you for whatever reason.

Just the same as you cannot be and do not want to be associated with any of the bad things "the Americans" have done. If you do believe such things exist, that is.

So unless you're a fucking Amerikan supremacist and believe that my genes make me evil (and yours make you superior, of course), the proper thing for you to do would be to please leave me the fuck alone with what happens or has ever happened in Germany. And I don't even want to hear about the beer.

You can call me a fuckwad as long as you want. Hell, you can even call me a Hun if that makes your weenie hard, but if you call me a Nazi criminal I won't shut up until you apologize.

SQT writes:
Yes, Surfer-X crosses the line sometimes, but if you took the time to get to *know* him, you’d find an intelligent thoughtful person.

That may very well be, but I find it difficult to appreciate the sheer goodness of his heart when I'm in constant danger of being called a ideologically motivated mass murderer by him just because of my nationality.

SQT writes:
When we got on the train, some of the Japanese asked us where we were from, and we said “guess” and they said Germany. (This is not meant to be an insult Girgl, really).

You can stereotype Germans all you want for all I care. Hell, if I thought Germany and the German culture are so great, I'd still be there.

Sunnyvale_Renter says:
My dying wish is to take many POC dead with me to light my way to Valhalla!

Huh?

In a last ditch effort to go back to RE, let me ask you guys this. When you surf craigslist, or anyother RE site that show RE for sale in CA, do you see a bunch of ads for RE in Oregon? I’ve been seeing a lot of ads that say things like “Get a lot more house for less $$ than you would pay in CA.” I think that is so interesting. It clearly shows that RE agents out of state know CA residents are fed up with the market here and are moving out to afford a home.

Very true... I see this on craglist in my area (LI-NY) too.....Many people are cashing out (trying to anyway ;) ) to buy in a cheaper market as this article explains and shows where they are going. While some of these people have cashed out and already bought or are in the process, others are first time buyers who still can't afford to buy even with the "easy money", yet still believe that prices won't fall.....This herd of sheeple are the target of these RE agents who are trying to get a sale elsewhere.

If you have flash enabled check this out

SQT says:
Jeez, now I see why Surfer-X gets so frustrated. Did you bother to read beyond this point?

Yes I did. I wanted to re-emphasize that I do not care whatever you think of Germans, because your comment

(This is not meant to be an insult Girgl, really).

lead me to believe that you think I do.

I am basically an American mutt, with a predominantly German and Irish background. I look as Aryan as any German could want, but have never been called a Nazi. I wonder why?

Because there's nothing obvious to assoicate you with Germany. Whereas if there would be something, you'd probably have heard it a lot in high school. My daughter has been asked "Are you a Nazi?" in all seriousness by a variety of folks already since it made the rounds that she's German-born (she grew up here, though, and I can assure you that there's nothing about her appearance or demeanor that would otherwise give rise to the suspicion).
Who can blame the kids, really, but it's like it's hardwired into people's brains, and no one, not even intelligent, grown-up people like you folks seem to make the obvious connection that making this connection is effectively exacty the same in terms of racist undertones and insult than asking a black person whether they are a drug dealer, or something similarly ridiculous.

I hope we can now get on with our lives, and find some juicy new real estate data points to discuss.

Bill Gross expects long-term bond rates (and thus mortgage rates) to remain low for years to come:

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/IO/2005/IO+December+2005.htm

He expects much slower GDP growth in '06 and therefore FED easing by the end of '06. If this comes to pass, the housing bubble will not need an interest-rate component to pop it, it will pop merely as a result of the inflated home asset prices alone destroying affordability and thus demand. California residents of course know this is happening in our state right now as the decline has begun as rates are still historically quite low--and only 15% of California residents can afford a median priced home. Thoughts? And for God's sake, please no more race discussion.

Everytime I do a real estate search on craiglist in my area using "motivated" as the search term, there are more posts that come up.....it's at 89 right now....last week it was 72. Interesting. ;)

SQT says:
so it is possible that kindhearted German’s existed.

Glad to see that you're willing to concede basic human traits to at least a small minority among the monsters.

Shmend says:
what i find ridiculous is that every person with german heritage claims to have decended from the ethical minority who opposed hitler. What happened to the millions of germans shouting “HAIL HITLER!” ? oops we lost our bid to take over the world… fuhrer? what fuhrer? i never liked the guy.

I never claimed that. For all I know, all four of my grandparents voted for Hitler and cheered "Sieg Heil" in the streets. They never talked about it after the war.
And you know what? If I had lived at the time, maybe I would have done the same, even though today the thought makes me shudder.
At least I'm man enough to admit that, whereas you guys think and claim smugly you're superior by nature and immune to these things.

That smugness, coupled with brainwashed ignorance about what actually happened, makes me want to puke. Also, it makes me afraid of what's going to happen in this country in the future, because IF there's something bad in the making, you guys sure won't see it coming through the beautiful and comfortable illusion of your moral and genetic superiority.

Go away for a day, and I miss this huge racial/Nazi tangent. Hmmm... that's probably a GOOD thing.

Anyway, I'm all for free speech and making whatever point you like, as long as it doesn't degenerate into some pointless personal flame war, which this has come very close to doing.

Btw, "Nazi_punk" is really iceman in disguise. Like SQT, I doubt very much he is being serious with the anti-Semitic comments and is just trying to rile everyone and show how ridiculous/extreme the whole rascist/Nazi tangent was getting.

Ok, back to real estate everyone...

@SQT, I think by now EVERYONE can agree to that sentiment.

New thread: Blog Party Tales

How do you guys think the receival of year-end bonus will affect the market in Spring next year? I’m planning on getting my nut in mid-February, about a month later than other firms in my industry.

I thought bonuses have more effects on retail or equities. :)

20% of 200K is only 40K. Not enough as a reasonable downpayment. :)

20% of 200K is only 40K.

A highly optimistic view already...

It is more like 10% of 100K or less... a plasma TV? :)