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Bubble question from a reader


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2018 May 3, 8:09am   8,318 views  52 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (55)   💰tip   ignore  

I studied economics but don't understand how there can be such a broad-based surge in the price and rental rates for homes. It seems like everyone is scraping by. I have to wonder whether investment into real estate is creating this demand. Be it through investment funds, hedge funds, and foreign money. I know the purchase of real estate is one of the only ways to get money out of China. I also know that wealth generated in Russia tends not to stay in Russia, and looks for safe havens abroad. We've seen what it has done to the London housing market. I've also heard that downtown Vancouver is half empty because units are owned by absentee buyers.

My question is: to what degree is it happening here? The overall real estate market is valued at about $30 trillion. How much does it take to spike a market of this size? A couple trillion?

Most of the money is probably flowing into the metro areas of SF, LA, NY and Miami which probably adds up to about $10 trillion. Then maybe less than a trillion could move these markets. Add up huge, concentrated wealth in China, Russia and hedge fund buyers who are nervous about the stock market and the bond bubble, and that could be creating excess demand that is causing prices to be so high.

I can totally see how people would look the other way. Outside money comes in and property values go up, driving up sales commissions to realtors and tax revenues to states and local governments. Home owners feel good too because their perceived values go up too. Only problem is that regular folks can't afford housing.

What's your view on whether we're in another bubble? If so, are we going to see it pop again soon?

Thoughts?

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41   LeonDurham   2018 May 4, 1:45pm  

JZ says
When they levered up and blowed up, let’s do NOT bail out, let them die and drag down everybody with them. It is NOT only honest that way,


How is that honest? So, letting the commercial paper market freeze up and putting who knows how many good businesses under because they couldn't get bridge financing is honest?

JZ says
it also clean the rot and restore displine for the “COMMON” good. In stead the “offset of deflation” encourages more corruption and wealth transfer.


Again--losing billions of dollars doesn't restore discipline?

JZ says
She told me she does NOT want to work, “how about investing?” that’s what she said.


And that surprised you? Who wouldn't rather invest than work? That's human nature.
42   mell   2018 May 4, 1:58pm  

JZ says
What is for certain is that the jobs created by Uber, Telsla, Snap will need houses to live and schools to go to. So let’s just squeeze rent out of them.
This is how ZIRP/QE was carried under the name of stimulating the economy but in reality, it just helps rent seekers to fuck the W2 workers.


Correct, You think garbage like TSLA would trade at $300 in 2008 conditions where people are actually carefully and sane with their money? The problem is once you have enough free cheap money/credit you can blow up these bubbles yourself (short-squeeze etc.) and profit from them by selling at the top. And deprive areas of SFHs and convert them to rentals, etc. etc.
43   rootvg   2018 May 4, 2:16pm  

JZ says
It was carried out to make sure everybody is loaded with debt so that wealth is transferred from honest work and wealth creation to rent seekers such as bankers and land lords.
I have no problem for bankers and rent seekers to take on risk, and do what they do. When they levered up and blowed up, let’s do NOT bail out, let them die and drag down everybody with them. It is NOT only honest that way, it also clean the rot and restore displine for the “COMMON” good. In stead the “offset of deflation” encourages more corruption and wealth transfer. I was in post office and wait in line for passports. I was chatting to a young lady and asked her what she does. She told me she does NOT want to work, “how about investing?” that’s what she said.

That means we've come to a point where money has little to no value and work has no value, a big issue in the SF Bay Area where so many have made so much for so long.
We would return to Ohio in a minute (in a second) but my wife is a Civil Servant so we can't. There's going to be one hell of a crash here. Has to be.

There's a follow the leader, high schoolish emotionalism about the culture here. I didn't grow up that way and I'm not going to be subject to it now. We waited before and were very handsomely rewarded. I'm sure that will happen again.
44   JZ   2018 May 4, 3:55pm  

Leon, what you are saying is this
Investing is for everybody, work is for suckers.

What I am saying is this:
Let everything freeze up and let business die. Then the mass will hang the responsible and drain the swamp. Then it comes the era of responsibility and discipline. Losing billions does NOT restore any disciple when FED is printing trillions. Those who take the public hostage gets bigger and the public is a bigger hostage now.
45   LeonDurham   2018 May 4, 5:35pm  

JZ says
What I am saying is this:
Let everything freeze up and let business die. Then the mass will hang the responsible and drain the swamp. Then it comes the era of responsibility and discipline. Losing billions does NOT restore any disciple when FED is printing trillions. Those who take the public hostage gets bigger and the public is a bigger hostage now.


Yep I know what you're saying. And I'm saying your very naïve.

That solution puts the US in another Great Depression that doesn't end because you don't want to implement the New Deal.
46   JZ   2018 May 4, 7:50pm  

If I am in the operation room and being operated, I have no problem using some narcotics. Otherwise, I die. It is totally another matter of using pills to ease the pain and take an injection to go eccastacy under the name of human nature when your body is and health is decaying. It is another total different matter if you introduce narcotics to the public and keep making money out of them once they get addicted.
47   LeonDurham   2018 May 5, 6:35am  

JZ says
It is another total different matter if you introduce narcotics to the public and keep making money out of them once they get addicted.


If you want interest rates to rise, fix the inequality problem.
48   mell   2018 May 5, 8:19am  

LeonDurham says
JZ says
It is another total different matter if you introduce narcotics to the public and keep making money out of them once they get addicted.


If you want interest rates to rise, fix the inequality problem.


Inequality has no bearing on rates whatsoever. You can see that by comparing various countries with similar inequality index and totally different rates. The rates are set by the Fed and influenced by the bond vigilantes. That's it.
49   JZ   2018 May 5, 12:45pm  

The FED power to print and set rates attracts psychopath and create corruption at the cost of the public who can NOT print. You can argue that without FED power, nothing can be done in a disastrous crisis situation. This is like all the other kind of powers. without it, nobody can do anything. With power, it invites corruption. This is the cycle of birth and death of all civilizations. At least the founding fathers of US of A went against human nature and created a country with good balance of power. No fiat money, public own guns to have basic deterrence against the government power. Today, money is fiat, FED power invites wealth transfer and corruption more than it helps wealth creation and crisis mitigation. When they have ZIRP, not everybody can borrow at 0%, only their friends can. The impact of this invisible but YUGE.

I have no problem of inequality. If Bill Gates and Steve Jobs get rich, their employee have a better life too, so does the society. But if the inequality is caused by moneytaty policy which facilites wealth transfer by blowing bubbles and rent seeking, I do have a problem with inequality.
50   Strategist   2018 May 5, 1:07pm  

JZ says

I have no problem of inequality. If Bill Gates and Steve Jobs get rich, their employee have a better life too, so does the society.


All men will never be equal. Problem arises when people start comparing what they have to what others have.
Why care what others have? I would not mind being the poorest man on earth if I have everything I need, and am happy.
51   LeonDurham   2018 May 5, 5:06pm  

mell says

Inequality has no bearing on rates whatsoever. You can see that by comparing various countries with similar inequality index and totally different rates. The rates are set by the Fed and influenced by the bond vigilantes. That's it.


Ah, I see where you are mistaken. First off, let's remember that all interest rates that would concern you or I are set by the free market. Supply and demand. The Fed sets none of these.

Once we understand that, we can see why inequality is the main reason for low rates in the US today. The higher one's income, the smaller the % of it goes towards consumption. So, as more and more $$ goes to the 1%, it gets saved and invested creating higher and higher levels of $$ available for lending. More supply leads to lower rates. But that's not all--as more money goes to the 1%, less obviously goes to the 99% meaning fewer and fewer people qualify for loans. This reduces demand. So you've got more supply and less demand as inequality grows. Anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows what happens--in this case it's lower rates.

To respond to your point about other countries--you have to adjust for default risk when comparing different countries. It's pretty easy to see the effect of inequality when you just look at US interest rates over time. It's no wonder that rates have been falling for 20+ years as inequality worsens here.
52   LeonDurham   2018 May 5, 5:08pm  

JZ says
I have no problem of inequality. If Bill Gates and Steve Jobs get rich, their employee have a better life too, so does the society. But if the inequality is caused by moneytaty policy which facilites wealth transfer by blowing bubbles and rent seeking, I do have a problem with inequality.


Capitalism, by its very nature, creates inequality. Government must be the instrument to control it.

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