« prev   random   next »

11
3

There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!

By Goran_K following x   2018 May 14, 8:51am 27,221 views   761 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    




Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.

Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.

Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".

"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."

That's when Morris dropped his prediction.

"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."

Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.

« First    « Previous    Comments 681 - 760 of 760    Last »

682   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 7, 10:10am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I would actually really like to see the two parties work together to get good stuff done for the country.

The two parties working together on immigration means the Dems and Repubs will come together against the Trump supporters to push open borders. Remember, Trump is not really a Republican. He only ran as a Republican because as as an Independent, he would have got nowhere, and he could not run as a Democrat because he knew the Hillary nomination was baked in. In reality, he annexed the Republican party after usurping the Bushies and is trying to transform the Republican party from the right of center wing of the Demopublican Party to a more nationalist party that emphasizes pride in America, curtails illegal immigration, brings home manufacturing, and makes allies pay their fare share of defense.
683   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Nov 7, 10:13am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

PrivilegedtobeWhite says
marcus says
PrivilegedtobeWhite says
Still waiting on Arizona and Montana, but Republican candidates are both slightly in the lead.


If I understand it correctly then (and I don't) it will be a net pick up of 2 ?

They had 51 and when the dust settles they will have 53 ?
It's already a net pickup of 3, with a potential of 5
Looks like Montana went blue, so potential pickup of 4 depending on Arizona.
684   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 7, 10:20am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

PrivilegedtobeWhite says
Looks like Montana went blue,


Only way that could happen is by outright voter fraud.

BTW, are all these just projections are actual vote counts?
685   mell   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 7, 11:05am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HeadSet says
I would actually really like to see the two parties work together to get good stuff done for the country.

The two parties working together on immigration means the Dems and Repubs will come together against the Trump supporters to push open borders. Remember, Trump is not really a Republican. He only ran as a Republican because as as an Independent, he would have got nowhere, and he could not run as a Democrat because he knew the Hillary nomination was baked in. In reality, he annexed the Republican party after usurping the Bushies and is trying to transform the Republican party from the right of center wing of the Demopublican Party to a more nationalist party that emphasizes pride in America, curtails illegal immigration, brings home manufacturing, and makes allies pay their fare share of defense.


There are even politicians on the Dem side that don't want open borders. It's definitely a risk that policies go mainstream by going bipartisan, but Trump also energized Repub cucks to be more self-confident. Ultimately you have to work with what your constituents want, and I don't see that years of gridlock would be seen in Trump's favor. If it ever becomes unlivable should there be - which I don't project - a leftoid wave destroying the MAGA, you have options now since parts of Europe have gone more MAGA than Trump. Italy, Hungary, Poland, Austria, all beautiful countries, rich of economical and natural (if you're not married) beauty and MAGA leaders. Or wait til Ballsonaro has cleaned up Brazil. Gotta think global these days, these countries would all love more straight white pillars of society.
686   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 7, 11:17am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

mell says
There are even politicians on the Dem side that don't want open borders. It's definitely a risk that policies go mainstream by going bipartisan, but Trump also energized Repub cucks to be more self-confident. Ultimately you have to work with what your constituents want, and I don't see that years of gridlock would be seen in Trump's favor. If it ever becomes unlivable should there be - which I don't project - a leftoid wave destroying the MAGA, you have options now since parts of Europe have gone more MAGA than Trump. Italy, Hungary, Poland, Austria, all beautiful countries, rich of economical and natural (if you're not married) beauty and MAGA leaders. Or wait til Ballsonaro has cleaned up Brazil. Gotta think global these days, these countries would all love more straight white pillars of society.


Trump can just enforce the laws on the books. That will clamp down on immigration just dandy.
687   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 7, 11:20am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

There are even politicians on the Dem side that don't want open borders.

They will not vote against the caucus on immigration policy, just like no Democrat went against the Kavanaugh lynching (save WV).
688   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 7, 11:24am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says

I would actually really like to see the two parties work together to get good stuff done for the country. All this bickering and resistance is bad for everyone. Perhaps this will be a better result than if the GOP swept both houses. But only if the Democrats regain their sanity. More open border communist crap will just doom us.

Also Trump will ironically have more sway over the next budget. Pelosi can’t pretend it wasn’t her who wrote the budget he vetoes. He swore to work on the budget in the next year, and I bet he does stand firm this time. Except this time he won’t have to stand firm against his own party. He will have a great foil in Pelosi to stand firm against.


Damn Quigley, you have been on fire with some good observations. Noticing the punishment for Kavanaugh, anywhere the Senate Contest was anything like a fight, was spot on. Manchin was the only Dem to vote FOR Kavanaugh and even though he was in Red WV, he got re-elected.

Trump pre-positioned a bit of a talking point before the election: A promise of a 10% middle class tax cut on top of the big tax cut that was just implemented.

For the next two years "We wanted to pass a 10% tax cut, but the Democratic Congress won't allow it" if the Democrats act feisty, and as further motivation for Republicans and Fiscal-minded Independents in 2020.

And yes, now the Dems own the budget.

I wonder if the Democrat Deficit Hawks will still be screeching going forward
689   mell   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 7, 11:25am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HeadSet says
There are even politicians on the Dem side that don't want open borders.

They will not vote against the caucus on immigration policy, just like no Democrat went against the Kavanaugh lynching.


Collins did. It's a start but they need to show more.
690   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 7, 11:27am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Trump can just enforce the laws on the books. That will clamp down on immigration just dandy.

Sanctuary Cities, and maybe Sanctuary states.

Motel 6 just got sued for turning over guest names to ICE. Motel 6 will even have to pay actual illegal aliens damages from "violation of privacy."

Trump will have an uphill battle enforcing immigration laws. He will get extreme push back by Dems and Repubs that want low wage labor, Dems who see votes in illegals, and virtue signaling Dem citizens who are in positions not to be hurt by an influx of illegals.
691   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 7, 11:30am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

mell says
HeadSet says
There are even politicians on the Dem side that don't want open borders.

They will not vote against the caucus on immigration policy, just like no Democrat went against the Kavanaugh lynching.


Collins did. It's a start but they need to show more.


Collins is a Republican. I knew you meant Manchin from WV, so I corrected my post.
692   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 7, 11:31am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
All this bickering and resistance is bad for everyone.


So? Individual members of Congress and Senators do not get elected by 'everyone'. They get elected really by a very small subset of the population in their districts and I am not even talking about the voters of said district at large, but their base, their donors (who very well might be outside that district), etc.

This is why Congress as a whole has lower approval ratings than rabid rats do, while individual members have rather high approval ratings from the people in their districts/states.

Point is: Bickering and resistance is good for many individual congresscritters/senators. Remember, it was just a few in the Senate who gave us Hurricane Kavanaugh. And they were doing so for vary narrow, self-serving reasons (Feinstein to fight off De Leon in the election and Booker/Harris/Warren to position themselves for the 2020 nomination). They even screwed over Senator Heidi Heitcamp's re-election in ND in the process. And they didn't care one bit, either.

This is going to continue in the House. Just watch.
693   mell   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 7, 11:37am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HeadSet says
mell says
HeadSet says
There are even politicians on the Dem side that don't want open borders.

They will not vote against the caucus on immigration policy, just like no Democrat went against the Kavanaugh lynching.


Collins did. It's a start but they need to show more.


Collins is a Republican. I knew you meant Manchin from WV, so I corrected my post.


You're right. We shall see if the Dems will dial the leftoid nutter setting back a bit now that they have some fiscal and economic responsibility.
694   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 7, 11:41am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

We're going to see how divided government is, and it's not going to be like Dem House and Reagan in 1980s, or even the Rep House and Clinton in the 90s, which was far less hostile and combative than people think - Clinton was really a conservative Southern Democrat and the distance on many issues was small.

But now we have a Neoliberal-Socialist SJW House against somebody who in any time from 1940 to 2010 would be basically a Centrist.
695   Herdingcats   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 8, 9:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

personal
696   Herdingcats   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 8, 10:13pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

anti_forum
697   FPBT   ignore (3)   2018 Nov 8, 10:29pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

marcus says
Why is 538 still saying +3.


Goran_K says
Uh because they’re wrong?


marcus says
What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.

You're sure it's not 3 right ?

Goran_K says
Uh because they’re wrong?


marcus says
What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.

You're sure it's not 3 right ?


Goran_K says
Yes positive it’s NOT 3. I’ll bet $1,000 it’s not 3.

Bet confirmed?


marcus says
Are you going to delete this is it is 3 ? Just wondering, becasue you are a republican. It seems kind of like something you might do.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not betting that is is three, but I will do the bet I said for $100. 3 I win, 5 you win, 4 neither of us win.


Goran_K says
Braun, Scott, Harley, Cramer.

Pay me.

@Patrick
Can we ban Marcus and his IP if he doesn’t pay up?
698   FPBT   ignore (3)   2018 Nov 8, 10:31pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Sure sounds like Marcus meant plus +. He never said anything about flips
699   Herdingcats   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 8, 10:36pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

FPBT says
Sure sounds like Marcus meant plus +. He never said anything about flips


Yeah it sure did sound like Marcus was saying plus 3 not 3 flips
700   Herdingcats   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 8, 10:48pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Herdingcats says
FPBT says
Sure sounds like Marcus meant plus +. He never said anything about flips


Yeah it sure did sound like Marcus was saying plus 3 not 3 flips


Regardless, Marcus clearly states 4 is a draw.
701   marcus   ignore (7)   2018 Nov 8, 11:14pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

FPBT says
Sure sounds like Marcus meant plus


Not only did I say that I meant plus three, it was understood. But a couple of right wingers in this thread didn't even know, that it took republicans flipping three just to keep it at 51 republicans.

Note this back and forth:

Goran_K says
marcus says
Goran_K says
That is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.


Why is 538 still saying +3.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

I have to assume they are more on top of this than you or I.

Perhaps west coast ?


Uh because they’re wrong?


I made it very clear that I was talking about net change. IT is was clear that both Goran and two scoops thought that republican flips meant net increases, when there were other factors at play.
702   marcus   ignore (7)   2018 Nov 8, 11:17pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

But also he was joking about me owing him $1000. I think.

Actually if we had made that bet, I might still be winning it. But we didn't. The bet that I did offer, I almost surely wouldn't lose (they would have to be net up 5 for me to lose the bet I offered, which he did not accept).
703   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Nov 9, 7:22am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

APHAman says
marcus says
But also he was joking about me owing him $1000. I think.

Actually if we had made that bet, I might still be winning it. But we didn't. The bet that I did offer, I almost surely wouldn't lose (they would have to be net up 5 for me to lose the bet I offered, which he did not accept).


It’s odd that people will talk shit for months when it doesn’t mean anything, then when it’s time to get some skin in the game, the cower in the corner hoping mommee will save them. Maybe that’s why they always support Republicans and chide ‘liberals’. They’re happy to lose their freedoms to avoid having any skin in the game.
You two need to stop being so mean
704   HappyGilmore   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 10, 7:00am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
For posterity:





So, let's recap. As I tried to tell all of you, Nate was almost perfect. Dems are expected to win 38 seats when all is said and done and votes are done counting in CA.

The RCP polling average is going to be pretty damn close as well with Dems +7 or +7.5

My favorite--GA6 went to Dems this go around. Just needed a better candidate than Ossoff.

And as I tried to tell McGee--Republicans have lost suburban soccer Moms for a long time. Dems consistently won all types of suburban districts.

Typically, the party out of power wins in the midterms because the other party doesn't show up to vote. in 2018, Trump got his base out and they voted. But he has alienated so many former Republicans that they still lost. So there's no reason to think he'll do any better in 2020.

OK-had to come back to gloat. Happy out.
705   mell   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 10, 11:25am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HappyGilmore says
And as I tried to tell McGee--Republicans have lost suburban soccer Moms for a long time. Dems consistently won all types of suburban districts.

Typically, the party out of power wins in the midterms because the other party doesn't show up to vote. in 2018, Trump got his base out and they voted. But he has alienated so many former Republicans that they still lost. So there's no reason to think he'll do any better in 2020.

OK-had to come back to gloat. Happy out.


Hate to say this but you're mostly right here. It was white women who have increased their support for the Dems, otherwise this election would have been another disaster for the blue team. I doubt though that many are soccer moms as even suburbia hasn't been immune to the growing epidemic of lone childless post-wall cat-lady harpies who have ridden the cock carousel just one too many times and now need to express their bitterness by denying happily married women and white men their pursuit of happiness.
706   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 10, 11:56am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The big news is that the wealthy voted Democrat. They want their open borders and the jobs they outsources to reimport back to Middle America they destroyed tariff-free
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-election-precinct-results/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.0b366a109cac

The party realignment continues. And of course the Cat Ladies came out in force.

Congrats on FINALLY being right about something, though.

TSenate, which will gain even if Broward and PBC manufactures enough ballots and keeps breaking Florida Laws, went far to the Red. That wasn't no Dem+7 result, especially since many were close races and one happened in a Swing State. A reminder that NO POLLSTER consensus predicted a 2-4 Republican Gain. I can't think of a major pollster who did so.

It sure looks like the deciding factor in the Senate was the Kavanaugh vote, which mitigates the Suburban White Woman theory.

But, it's really no biggie, the House was on par with a typical midterm election. The Senate was a bit of a shock.

The fun is the long delayed Democrat Civil War between Trad Libs, SJWs, and Neoliberals. I'm sure 70-something Pelosi will be bringing fresh, undisputed, vibrant leadership.
707   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 10, 12:00pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Also, the strategy was to pump the Senate Races, but not so much the House races. Looks like this was misguided.

And, the Democrats outspent the Republicans again. They were able to do so, despite being almost bust after 2016, because the Wealthy lavished them with donations.
708   FortWayneIndiana   ignore (3)   2018 Nov 10, 12:16pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

No blue wave occurred. Now dems are trying to stuff ballot box in Florida and Arizona in hopes of cheat winning it.
709   HappyGilmore   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 10, 1:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
The big news is that the wealthy voted Democrat.


False. Educated voted Democrat. There wasn't much correlation between income and voting Dem or Rep.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
It sure looks like the deciding factor in the Senate was the Kavanaugh vote, which mitigates the Suburban White Woman theory.


False again. The issue was the Dem senators were running in extremely Republican states. They overperformed, but Trump was successful in getting out the base in Indiana, Missouri, N. Dakota, etc.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

But, it's really no biggie, the House was on par with a typical midterm election


False yet again. Typically midterms help the party out of power because they are the only voters that turn out. In this case, Trump got his base out. Like I said, the problem was unique to this year in that he alienated so many former Republicans that he lost anyway. And if Dems +7.5 isn't a wave, then what is a wave?

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Also, the strategy was to pump the Senate Races, but not so much the House races. Looks like this was misguided.


And false again. Dems had a very strong strategy for the House. They recruited good candidates everywhere. They supported them everywhere. They ran on healthcare. It worked.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

And, the Democrats outspent the Republicans again. They were able to do so, despite being almost bust after 2016, because the Wealthy lavished them with donations.


lol--they have a HUGE network of small donors that they depended on. They won because of soccer Moms throughout suburbia--donating and voting for Democrats.
710   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Nov 10, 1:42pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HappyGilmore says
They won because of soccer Moms throughout suburbia--donating and voting for Democrats.
Not according to Vogue

https://www.vogue.com/article/white-women-voters-conservative-trump-gop-problem
711   lostand confused   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 10, 2:09pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

PrivilegedtobeWhite says
HappyGilmore says
They won because of soccer Moms throughout suburbia--donating and voting for Democrats.
Not according to Vogue

https://www.vogue.com/article/white-women-voters-conservative-trump-gop-problem


Hush he likes his narrative.

For some perpective-in the senate this si the third time in 100 years the ruling party gained senate seats. See the tally in this article.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/disaster-avoided-trump-is-just-the-third-president-in-104-years-to-gain-senate-seats-in-a-midterm-election-2018-11-07

Repubs are good at soul searching-dems are not-crazytown. now crazy will be on full display and Trump will fight the dems in the house with everything he has. OH now when he gets a real atty general-haha-I think that is why he was waiting to bring it all out these two years.

Liberals can't help themselves-theya re the party of crazy sjws, crazy public sector thugs.

In my state of IL they won a supermajority and so tax increases on top of super high property taxes are what is staring. I think FL-here I come. IL fools will lose my taxes and a flood of other upper middle class folks. Rich people won't matter-they have trusts-us upper middle class folks si who the dmes target-we have nobody to represent us.
712   mell   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 10, 2:11pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

It's simple the crazy cat ladies increased but they will naturally eliminate themselves from the gene pool eventually.
713   Tim Aurora   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 10, 2:12pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
And, the Democrats outspent the Republicans again. They were able to do so, despite being almost bust after 2016, because the Wealthy lavished them with donations.


Yes we earn more than those village folks because we worked hard and smart and are more educated.
714   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 10, 2:30pm   ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

mell says
suburbia hasn't been immune to the growing epidemic of lone childless post-wall cat-lady harpies who have ridden the cock carousel just one too many times and now need to express their bitterness by denying happily married women and white men their pursuit of happiness


Feminism has gifted the USA with millions of overaged harpies without marriage prospects who are alone and bitter or with another harpy and still bitter. Most of these aren’t well off, but living paycheck to paycheck with low to middle paying jobs, and their last hope is that the government will swoop in to make their situation better somehow. So they vote Democrat.

Suburban soccer moms might not love them some Trump, but they aren’t willing to share the resources they have scraped together to raise their kids and set up a respectable household with illegal moochers and irresponsible cat ladies. They’re busy trying to live the American Dream, and Democrats keep getting in the way of that.
This divide will only worsen as time goes on.
715   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 10, 3:59pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tim Aurora says
Yes we earn more than those village folks because we worked hard and smart and are more educated.


I said Wealthy, not well off. Hollywood, Big Tech, etc. have been lavishing money on the Democrats. Tom Steyer, Bloomberg, Soros, and many others.
716   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 10, 4:03pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HappyGilmore says
False. Educated voted Democrat. There wasn't much correlation between income and voting Dem or Rep.


That's funny, Pew just released a report whether you went to an SJW indoctrination Camp did matter, especially if your Gulag major was a non-STEM, SJW-bullshit infused Social Science/Lib Arts program that Women have in greater proportion to males:




http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/08/the-2018-midterm-vote-divisions-by-race-gender-education/


HappyGilmore says
False again. The issue was the Dem senators were running in extremely Republican states. They overperformed, but Trump was successful in getting out the base in Indiana, Missouri, N. Dakota, etc.


Scott is in an excessively Red State?
717   HappyGilmore   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 10, 4:07pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
That's funny, Pew just released a report whether you went to an SJW indoctrination Camp did matter, especially if your Gulag major was a non-STEM, SJW-bullshit infused Social Science/Lib Arts program that Women have in greater proportion to males:


So you're agreeing that I'm correct again. Level of education matters. Income doesn't.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Scott is in an excessively Red State?


Are you assuming Scott won? Even if he does eke out a win, it's only because the Broward ballot design was so idiotic.
718   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 10, 4:07pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HappyGilmore says
False yet again. Typically midterms help the party out of power because they are the only voters that turn out. In this case, Trump got his base out. Like I said, the problem was unique to this year in that he alienated so many former Republicans that he lost anyway. And if Dems +7.5 isn't a wave, then what is a wave?


It was a typical midterm election -- In the House. The opposition picked up 30ish seats.

The Senate tells a different tale.

I think the Dems got the Illegals out in force.

HappyGilmore says
And false again. Dems had a very strong strategy for the House. They recruited good candidates everywhere. They supported them everywhere. They ran on healthcare. It worked.


They spent a fortune. Your GA-06 flip probably is nearing $100M in costs over the past two years.

And they had the entire Media and Big Tech behind them. Billions in Free Negative Ads against Republicans.
719   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 10, 4:09pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HappyGilmore says
So you're agreeing that I'm correct again. Level of education matters. Income doesn't.


Yes, brainwashing matters.

HappyGilmore says
Are you assuming Scott won? Even if he does eke out a win, it's only because the Broward ballot design was so idiotic.


I'm sure Scott won. You know this isn't the first time Brenda Snipes hasn't played games - and not just with Republicans, she was caught destroying primary ballots of a Progressive Challenger even though there was a pending suit over them.

I actually call on Scott to arrest her before she can hide the corpses.
720   HappyGilmore   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 10, 4:09pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

It was a typical midterm election -- In the House. The opposition picked up 30ish seats.


Number of seats won is actually a pretty poor measure. It depends so highly on how many seats the party had before the election. Better measure is vote %. And by that measure, it's right in line with the "wave" elections of the past.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says


They spent a fortune. Your GA-06 flip probably is nearing $100M in costs.


Make up your mind. I thought they were focused on the Senate??
721   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 10, 4:11pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HappyGilmore says
Number of seats won is actually a pretty poor measure. It depends so highly on how many seats the party had before the election. Better measure is vote %. And by that measure, it's right in line with the "wave" elections of the past.


Nope. It's not a wave. It's simply an off year election. 30ish votes being typical. 60 is a wave election, like the Republicans in 2010.

And the pickups in the Senate confirm that.

HappyGilmore says
Make up your mind. I thought they were focused on the Senate??



Yes, Trump was focused on the Senate, that was apparent from where he had his rallies. .Figured the House would be dragged along. Didn't work - and nobody really knows why we had two opposite results with the Republicans doing about as good in the Senate as the Dems did in the House.

Dems weren't, they were looking for the House. So I stand by the approaching $100M for GA-06, and the win was paper thin and will be easily overturned in 2020.
722   HappyGilmore   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 10, 4:16pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Nope. It's not a wave. It's simply an off year election. 30ish votes being typical. 60 is a wave election, like the Republicans in 2010.

And the pickups in the Senate confirm that.


Like I said--only if one purposely looks at the wrong measure. And it's really 40ish votes, not 30ish.

The only reason Reps got 60 was because they had so few to begin with.


TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Yes, Trump was focused on the Senate. .Figured the House would be dragged along. Didn't work - and nobody really knows why we had two opposite results.

Dems weren't, they were looking for the House. So I stand by the approaching $100M for GA-06, and the win was paper thin and will be easily overturned in 2020.


Trump was focused on the Senate because none of the House members wanted him to come. He was toxic. The Senate seats were all in deep red states that Republicans should be winning all day every day. The fact that they lost Nevada, are going to lose AZ, almost lost TX, lost WV, Montana, is more of an indictment than a success.
723   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 10, 4:18pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HappyGilmore says
The only reason Reps got 60 was because they had so few to begin with.


It's because people thought they were getting a Golden Child who would put the banks in their place, instead they got a divisive SJW who focused on helping insurance companies make health mandatory and expensive.

HappyGilmore says
Trump was focused on the Senate because none of the House members wanted him to come. He was toxic. The Senate seats were all in deep red states that Republicans should be winning all day every day. The fact that they lost Nevada, are going to lose AZ, almost lost TX, lost WV, Montana, is more of an indictment than a success.



Maybe those House Members made a mistake.

Again, Florida isn't a Deep Red State
724   HappyGilmore   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 10, 4:20pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Maybe those House Members made a mistake.

Again, Florida isn't a Deep Red State


And Scott should have lost.
725   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 10, 4:39pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HappyGilmore says
And Scott should have lost.



He should have win, and will win. Just because it isn't deep Red doesn't mean it can't flip a Dem Senator.

Get ready for 2020. Please run Kamala Harris if possible.
726   HappyGilmore   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 10, 4:58pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

He should have win, and will win. Just because it isn't deep Red doesn't mean it can't flip a Dem Senator.

Get ready for 2020. Please run Kamala Harris if possible.


Scott may win, but only because of 20,000+ undervotes in Broward county. With a properly designed ballot, he loses.

Get ready for Betomania--that's going to be Trump's opponent in 2020.
727   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 10, 5:05pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Get ready for Betomania--that's going to be Trump's opponent in 2020.

I believe the Dems will run a female in 2020. Any male that shows promise will get the Al Franken treatment.
728   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 10, 6:44pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HappyGilmore says
Scott may win, but only because of 20,000+ undervotes in Broward county. With a properly designed ballot, he loses.

Hahaha, Trump is no !Jeb! Get ready for a nasty surprise. Snipes is going down, big league. She broke every law in the books already.
729   WookieMan   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 10, 8:46pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HappyGilmore says
Get ready for Betomania--that's going to be Trump's opponent in 2020.


Sorry, nationally anyone that goes by Beto is going to get thrashed. I know it's not his actual name, but Beto cannot come close to getting elected on a national level. He got beat by a very unlikable Republican incumbent in Cruz. Even for TX. Trump already beat Cruz too, so technically he's already ahead of Beto by default.

Dems really need to shift out of the fringe issues and start getting a candidate groomed that wants to help a majority of people instead of these fraction of a percentage of the population issues.
730   HappyGilmore   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 11, 6:52am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
Sorry, nationally anyone that goes by Beto is going to get thrashed. I know it's not his actual name, but Beto cannot come close to getting elected on a national level


lol-- A guy named Barack can get elected twice, but an Irish guy nicknamed Beto can't? Not sure about that...

WookieMan says
Dems really need to shift out of the fringe issues


Healthcare is not a fringe issue. Education is not a fringe issue.
731   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Nov 11, 8:20am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I say let Beta run for president. Once traditional women and real men see what Beta is all about, they'll vote for Alpha Trump.
733   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Nov 11, 11:22am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tim Aurora says
PrivilegedtobeWhite says
they'll vote for Alpha Trump.


http://patrick.net/post/1320166/2018-11-11-dotard-donney-ditches-dead-twitter-trump-tamed-by-thunder
Here's a secret...alphas do what they want, not what's expected of them...betas do that.
734   Herdingcats   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 11, 2:20pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

PrivilegedtobeWhite says
Here's a secret...alphas do what they want


Like puss out because of a little rain? Here is a true Patriot.

735   curious2   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 11, 5:32pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
Dems really need to shift out of the fringe issues and start getting a candidate groomed that wants to help a majority of people instead of these fraction of a percentage of the population issues.


Patrick says similar things, but it is a false dichotomy. Democrats' real problem is that several of their policies have actually harmed many or most Americans, including what used to be the Democratic base. For example:

Trade deals: NAFTA harmed many people in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and TPP would have harmed many more people.

Islam poses an existential threat to western liberalism generally and NATO in particular. Since Nixon's disastrous deals with KSA shifted the USD from the gold standard to the Petrodollar standard, Democrats and most Republicans (especially the Bush/Clinton dynasties) and the entire DC swamp have been deeply corrupted by Petrodollars and hypnotized into spreading Islam. It is fundamentally irrational and self-destructive for a western liberal democracy to spread Islam, and yet the NATO countries have been doing precisely that, and only since Nixon's disastrous deals. Prior to Nixon, western leaders including Churchill and Patton saw Islam for the retrograde "madness" that it was and is. Nixon was a Republican. It makes no sense for Democrats to embrace his policy of promoting KSA, and it is bizarre to see identitarian liberals call KSA an "ally," but Petrodollar hypnosis has that effect. “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!” DNCe angling for lucrative consulting contracts emphasize values like 'compassion' (for Muslims only, while ignoring Hindus and Buddhists who would love to come to the USA), and refuse to understand that spreading Islam is a horribly self-destructive mistake.

Obamneycare caused Democrats to suffer the worst midterm loss of any party in more than 70 years, and Democrats have never recovered. The party has lost credibility on the issue of health care, becoming part of the problem rather than the solution. As with Nixon's disastrous deals with KSA, HeritageFoundationCare did not even start as a Democratic party policy, but the tremendous amount of money corrupted the Democrats into supporting it.

It's fine for a party to help a fraction of a percentage of people, but it must also help at least a majority in enough states and districts to win. If the interests of a few align with the interests of the many, then you can help both at the same time, if you win. OTOH, if you have a corrupt party establishment determined to sell out its own base, then you lose even if you win. If Hillary had beaten Donald, she would have imported more than 60k "Syrian" "refugees" (from Hillary's War in Libya and Syria) in her first year, and these would have included more than 1k ISIL fighters, with more to follow. She acknowledged publicly that lethal terrorism "is clearly rooted in Islamic thinking," but proposed increasing mass surveillance on everyone to catch who is about to do what Islam says. That isn't liberal. Her Wikileaked emails acknowledged that her Saudi clients were principal financiers of terrorism worldwide, but her policies would have continued to serve them at American expense.

That is Democrats' basic problem: putting America, and Americans, last. You can accuse Republicans of having the same problem, and both major parties battle over their preferred myths like ancient warriors fighting for Zeus or Mars. Each side loves its own lies, and hates the lies of the other side. Democrats have unfortunately embraced the lie of Islam, in a country that is 80% Christian. Barack Obama imported a record number of Muslims while deporting a record number of Christians. You can dislike that fact if you want to, but it remains a fact. The USA is 80% Christian and 1% Muslim, and these two doctrines are in conflict. All of the western liberal democracies have Christian majorities, while none (zero) of the countries with Muslim majorities can really be called liberal democracies at all: to the contrary, they censor free speech and reject freedom of religion, as per Islam. Accept the fact that Islam is incompatible with western democracy, and pick the 80% if you want to win.
736   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 12, 10:04am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

curious2 says
The party has lost credibility on the issue of health care, becoming part of the problem rather than the solution.


Actually, they won several races in this election on the 'fix healthcare' bandwagon. What are they proposing to fix? ObamaCare. Voters have short memories. Yes, and the plan all along for the Pelosi-Schumer types who never get kicked out of office was the use O-Care to destroy private insurance in order to make way for single payer. That 'plan' is still on track as far as I can tell. If they are politically smart, they will offer something like an expansion of Medicare-C to people starting at age 50. Participants will still have to pay premiums -- only full retirees will continue to get premium-free Medicare, but much smaller ones and their employer could pay it. I am forced to concede that this would be popular for 50+ year olds and their employers alike. They could cut a deal with Trump on this and it would put the Senate GOP in a bind.

But hopefully, they will be stupid and go full single payer monty instead. :)
737   marcus   ignore (7)   2018 Nov 12, 5:49pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

PrivilegedtobeWhite says
Looks like Montana went blue, so potential pickup of 4 depending on Arizona.


What ?

The possible pickup is between zero and two inclusive. Worst case at this point is Republicans increase to 53. Best case - it says at 51. Unlikely, but possible.

Goran was ready to bet $1000 that it would be more than 3.
738   Herdingcats   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 14, 5:35am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

APHAman says
Did he pay up the $100?


Apparently Goran was talking about flips. Marcus clearly said 4 was a draw. If Nelson takes Florida Goran should pay up. Personally I think Goran should pay $1,000 if Nelson wins.
739   Herdingcats   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 14, 5:39am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Herdingcats says
APHAman says
Did he pay up the $100?


Apparently Goran was talking about flips. Marcus clearly said 4 was a draw. If Nelson takes Florida Goran should pay up. Personally I think Goran should pay $1,000 if Nelson wins.


Though it was pretty clear Marcus was not talking about flips but pick ups "pluses" +. In that case Goran lost and he should at least pay Marcus $100 or donate $100 to the Democratic party.
740   Herdingcats   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 14, 5:41am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Herdingcats says
Herdingcats says
APHAman says
Did he pay up the $100?


Apparently Goran was talking about flips. Marcus clearly said 4 was a draw. If Nelson takes Florida Goran should pay up. Personally I think Goran should pay $1,000 if Nelson wins.


Though it was pretty clear Marcus was not talking about flips but pick ups "pluses" +. In that case Goran lost and he should at least pay Marcus $100 or donate $100 to the Democratic party.


And if no pay Goran should suffer the same fate he wished on Marcus.

Goran_K says
Pay me.

@Patrick
Can we ban Marcus and his IP if he doesn’t pay up?
741   Herdingcats   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 20, 7:51am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

APHAman says
Did he pay up the $100?


Will Goran always make up an excuse not to pay?
742   HappyGilmore   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 26, 5:21pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HappyGilmore says
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
For posterity:





So, let's recap. As I tried to tell all of you, Nate was almost perfect. Dems are expected to win 38 seats when all is said and done and votes are done counting in CA.

The RCP polling average is going to be pretty damn close as well with Dems +7 or +7.5

My favorite--GA6 went to Dems this go around. Just needed a better candidate than Ossoff.

And as I tried to tell McGee--Republicans have lost suburban soccer Moms for a long time. Dems consistently won all types of suburban districts.

Typically, the party out of power wins in the midterms because the other party doesn't show up to vote. in 2018, Trump got his base out and they voted. But he has alienated so many ...


So, just a quick update and the almost final tally:

Dems have now gained 40 seats, more than almost anyone predicted. Dem House candidates will end up with almost as many votes in a mid-term election as Trump received in a Presidential year. And ended up +8. It was a complete rout.

So, while I'm certain Goran's mind wasn't changed, there is no doubt it was a blue wave.

Long term I think Trump will be great for the Democratic party, but short term it really hurts the country.
743   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 26, 6:28pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

HappyGilmore says
Dems have now gained 40 seats, more than almost anyone predicted. Dem House candidates will end up with almost as many votes in a mid-term election as Trump received in a Presidential year. And ended up +8. It was a complete rout.

So, while I'm certain Goran's mind wasn't changed, there is no doubt it was a blue wave.


And yet, the Republicans picked up two Senate seats.

I'm convinced there was a huge amount of illegal voter mail fraud, and that had Broward not been stopped, Florida would have turned Blue. California is beyond hope, but Arizona was surprising, although I think the GOPe runs Arizona and much of the losses were due to GOPe allowing the Dems to commit fraud without check. In Pennsylvania, the liberal State Supreme Court jerrymandered districts to favor the Democrats.

There were some very odd races where early Republican voting and mail-in ballots when Republicans normally dominate Election Day, ended up with all the ballots counted after election day mysteriously swinging to the Democrat. And many races where the Republican State Officials won by double digit margins, but the Democrat unseated an incumbent, which is unusual in mid-term elections.

Additionally, the results in Orange County showed the Democrats are the new party of the Elite and the Lumpenproles against Middle America and back the 6th-7th Party System idea. This was a realignment election which reflects the new Nationalist Populist vs. Elite Globalist nature of US Politics.

The Dems did get out their base, but I'm not convinced of the married female voter. The suburban SEIU member cat lady yes.

Three pieces of Good News:

* Many of the ousted Republicans were RINOs and these seats were lost by a hair
* It took incredible sums to flip these districts over several cycles, like Georgia 6.
* But many of these districts went Democrat by a hair (again, GA-6) and can easily flip back.

Trump is going to be re-elected in 2020, and the House will swing back like it did in 2010. IF the Republican State legislatures crack down on Fraud and Illegal Voting. If not, we will be swamped by an Elitist-Third World alliance that will destroy the American Dream forever, and blame it all on White Men.

Edit: Another person who deserves blame is Paul Ryan and other GOPe types who populate most of the Ground Forces. He loves globalism and sees populism is a threat.
744   d6rB   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 26, 6:31pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
White Men

Fucking White Men, oppressors of womyn, minorities, and transgendereds
745   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 26, 6:37pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Trump is going to be re-elected in 2020, and the House will swing back like it did in 2010. IF the Republican State legislatures crack down on Fraud and Illegal Voting. If not, we will be swamped by an Elitist-Third World alliance that will destroy the American Dream forever, and blame it all on White Men.


The reason this is possible is because of unmarried women and to a lesser extent, coastal soyboys. The unifying angle is that both groups have no direct descendants to protect, see their cosmopolitan provincialism as a superior and infallible worldview, and hate (married and/or attractive, successful) White Males
746   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Nov 26, 9:28pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HappyGilmore says
Long term I think Trump will be great for the Democratic party, but short term it really hurts the country.
God save us. I'm embarrassed for humanity when people truly believe socialistic ideals are the way to go. We're slowly killing the human race.
747   Herdingcats   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 27, 7:16am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

PrivilegedtobeWhite says
I'm embarrassed for humanity when people truly believe socialistic ideals are the way to go.


So you believe we should make all roads private, close public schools, close the post office, disband fire, police and the military all socialistic ideals? That's what I'm hearing.
748   P N Dr Lo R   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 27, 7:25am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Herdingcats says
roads private, close public schools, close the post office, disband fire, police and the military all socialistic ideals
These aren't socialism, they're called infrastructure and public services, funded through taxation, common to every municipality. The only exception is public schools, a perfect microcosm of what the Soviet Union would have created and funded. And yes, in virtually every instance with the schools, private outperforms public.
749   Herdingcats   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 27, 7:41am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

P N Dr Lo R says
These aren't socialism


The term used was

Herdingcats says
socialistic ideals


Socialism is taxpayer funds being used collectively to benefit society as a whole.

Just because you don't think about it as a socialist ideal doesn't make it not a socialist ideal.
750   Herdingcats   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 27, 7:45am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

P N Dr Lo R says
in virtually every instance with the schools, private outperforms public


And how much more money is spent at those private schools?
751   Herdingcats   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 27, 7:56am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Herdingcats says
P N Dr Lo R says
in virtually every instance with the schools, private outperforms public


And how much more money is spent at those private schools?


No way... Looks like they average out to about the same! I'd guess that administration costs eats up a bigger part of public schools costs.
752   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 28, 5:54am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

And with the Mississippi race finally decided, the Senate stands at 53-47.
753   marcus   ignore (7)   2018 Nov 28, 6:14am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

personal
754   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 28, 6:45am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
And with the Mississippi race finally decided, the Senate stands at 53-47.


#bluewave
755   marcus   ignore (7)   2018 Nov 28, 6:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

personal
756   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 28, 6:56am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

marcus says
Sad. You must be so proud.


I’m generally happy.

Election is over. We were both off the mark. But still no blue wave.
757   RC2006   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 28, 8:53am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Need to be called the #blueundertow dragging people back to the depths.
758   Herdingcats   ignore (1)   2018 Dec 4, 7:46pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

APHAman says
Goran_K says
marcus says
Sad. You must be so proud.


I’m generally happy.

Election is over. We were both off the mark. But still no blue wave.


No blue wave? Lol, did you welch on your bet again?

http://www.electproject.org/2018g


There was a BLUE tsunami in the OC.
759   FortWayneIndiana   ignore (3)   2018 Dec 4, 7:54pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Herdingcats says
APHAman says
Goran_K says
marcus says
Sad. You must be so proud.


I’m generally happy.

Election is over. We were both off the mark. But still no blue wave.


No blue wave? Lol, did you welch on your bet again?

http://www.electproject.org/2018g


There was a BLUE tsunami in the OC.


That needs to be court challenged. There was no blue tsunami, just a whole lot of election fraud with strangers turning in "other peoples" ballots by 100,000+ at a time.
760   Herdingcats   ignore (1)   2018 Dec 5, 5:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

FortWayneIndiana says
That needs to be court challenged.


It is in Georgia, hopefully we can put a stop to the Jim crow tactics of the Republicans and finally stop disenfranchising honest hard working Americans.

« First    « Previous    Comments 681 - 760 of 760    Last »



about   best comments   contact   one year ago   suggestions