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There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!

By Goran_K following x   2018 May 14, 8:51am 15,146 views   836 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    




Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.

Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.

Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".

"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."

That's when Morris dropped his prediction.

"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."

Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.

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797   HappyGilmore   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 10, 4:58pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

He should have win, and will win. Just because it isn't deep Red doesn't mean it can't flip a Dem Senator.

Get ready for 2020. Please run Kamala Harris if possible.


Scott may win, but only because of 20,000+ undervotes in Broward county. With a properly designed ballot, he loses.

Get ready for Betomania--that's going to be Trump's opponent in 2020.
798   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 10, 5:05pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Get ready for Betomania--that's going to be Trump's opponent in 2020.

I believe the Dems will run a female in 2020. Any male that shows promise will get the Al Franken treatment.
799   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 10, 6:44pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HappyGilmore says
Scott may win, but only because of 20,000+ undervotes in Broward county. With a properly designed ballot, he loses.

Hahaha, Trump is no !Jeb! Get ready for a nasty surprise. Snipes is going down, big league. She broke every law in the books already.
800   WookieMan   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 10, 8:46pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HappyGilmore says
Get ready for Betomania--that's going to be Trump's opponent in 2020.


Sorry, nationally anyone that goes by Beto is going to get thrashed. I know it's not his actual name, but Beto cannot come close to getting elected on a national level. He got beat by a very unlikable Republican incumbent in Cruz. Even for TX. Trump already beat Cruz too, so technically he's already ahead of Beto by default.

Dems really need to shift out of the fringe issues and start getting a candidate groomed that wants to help a majority of people instead of these fraction of a percentage of the population issues.
801   APHAman   ignore (8)   2018 Nov 11, 6:05am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
HappyGilmore says
Get ready for Betomania--that's going to be Trump's opponent in 2020.


Sorry, nationally anyone that goes by Beto is going to get thrashed. I know it's not his actual name, but Beto cannot come close to getting elected on a national level. He got beat by a very unlikable Republican incumbent in Cruz. Even for TX. Trump already beat Cruz too, so technically he's already ahead of Beto by default.

Dems really need to shift out of the fringe issues and start getting a candidate groomed that wants to help a majority of people instead of these fraction of a percentage of the population issues.


Why? Republicans continue to win some elections on their platform of fucking over a majority of Americans. Why won’t that work for Democrats?
802   APHAman   ignore (8)   2018 Nov 11, 6:06am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The Blue Wave that took The House didn’t happen: change my mind, even though I promise I’m unwilling to change my mind!
803   HappyGilmore   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 11, 6:52am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
Sorry, nationally anyone that goes by Beto is going to get thrashed. I know it's not his actual name, but Beto cannot come close to getting elected on a national level


lol-- A guy named Barack can get elected twice, but an Irish guy nicknamed Beto can't? Not sure about that...

WookieMan says
Dems really need to shift out of the fringe issues


Healthcare is not a fringe issue. Education is not a fringe issue.
804   PrivilegedtobeWhite   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 11, 8:20am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I say let Beta run for president. Once traditional women and real men see what Beta is all about, they'll vote for Alpha Trump.
806   PrivilegedtobeWhite   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 11, 11:22am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tim Aurora says
PrivilegedtobeWhite says
they'll vote for Alpha Trump.


http://patrick.net/post/1320166/2018-11-11-dotard-donney-ditches-dead-twitter-trump-tamed-by-thunder
Here's a secret...alphas do what they want, not what's expected of them...betas do that.
807   Herdingcats   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 11, 2:20pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

PrivilegedtobeWhite says
Here's a secret...alphas do what they want


Like puss out because of a little rain? Here is a true Patriot.

808   curious2   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 11, 5:32pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
Dems really need to shift out of the fringe issues and start getting a candidate groomed that wants to help a majority of people instead of these fraction of a percentage of the population issues.


Patrick says similar things, but it is a false dichotomy. Democrats' real problem is that several of their policies have actually harmed many or most Americans, including what used to be the Democratic base. For example:

Trade deals: NAFTA harmed many people in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and TPP would have harmed many more people.

Islam poses an existential threat to western liberalism generally and NATO in particular. Since Nixon's disastrous deals with KSA shifted the USD from the gold standard to the Petrodollar standard, Democrats and most Republicans (especially the Bush/Clinton dynasties) and the entire DC swamp have been deeply corrupted by Petrodollars and hypnotized into spreading Islam. It is fundamentally irrational and self-destructive for a western liberal democracy to spread Islam, and yet the NATO countries have been doing precisely that, and only since Nixon's disastrous deals. Prior to Nixon, western leaders including Churchill and Patton saw Islam for the retrograde "madness" that it was and is. Nixon was a Republican. It makes no sense for Democrats to embrace his policy of promoting KSA, and it is bizarre to see identitarian liberals call KSA an "ally," but Petrodollar hypnosis has that effect. “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!” DNCe angling for lucrative consulting contracts emphasize values like 'compassion' (for Muslims only, while ignoring Hindus and Buddhists who would love to come to the USA), and refuse to understand that spreading Islam is a horribly self-destructive mistake.

Obamneycare caused Democrats to suffer the worst midterm loss of any party in more than 70 years, and Democrats have never recovered. The party has lost credibility on the issue of health care, becoming part of the problem rather than the solution. As with Nixon's disastrous deals with KSA, HeritageFoundationCare did not even start as a Democratic party policy, but the tremendous amount of money corrupted the Democrats into supporting it.

It's fine for a party to help a fraction of a percentage of people, but it must also help at least a majority in enough states and districts to win. If the interests of a few align with the interests of the many, then you can help both at the same time, if you win. OTOH, if you have a corrupt party establishment determined to sell out its own base, then you lose even if you win. If Hillary had beaten Donald, she would have imported more than 60k "Syrian" "refugees" (from Hillary's War in Libya and Syria) in her first year, and these would have included more than 1k ISIL fighters, with more to follow. She acknowledged publicly that lethal terrorism "is clearly rooted in Islamic thinking," but proposed increasing mass surveillance on everyone to catch who is about to do what Islam says. That isn't liberal. Her Wikileaked emails acknowledged that her Saudi clients were principal financiers of terrorism worldwide, but her policies would have continued to serve them at American expense.

That is Democrats' basic problem: putting America, and Americans, last. You can accuse Republicans of having the same problem, and both major parties battle over their preferred myths like ancient warriors fighting for Zeus or Mars. Each side loves its own lies, and hates the lies of the other side. Democrats have unfortunately embraced the lie of Islam, in a country that is 80% Christian. Barack Obama imported a record number of Muslims while deporting a record number of Christians. You can dislike that fact if you want to, but it remains a fact. The USA is 80% Christian and 1% Muslim, and these two doctrines are in conflict. All of the western liberal democracies have Christian majorities, while none (zero) of the countries with Muslim majorities can really be called liberal democracies at all: to the contrary, they censor free speech and reject freedom of religion, as per Islam. Accept the fact that Islam is incompatible with western democracy, and pick the 80% if you want to win.
809   MegaForce   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 12, 10:04am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

curious2 says
The party has lost credibility on the issue of health care, becoming part of the problem rather than the solution.


Actually, they won several races in this election on the 'fix healthcare' bandwagon. What are they proposing to fix? ObamaCare. Voters have short memories. Yes, and the plan all along for the Pelosi-Schumer types who never get kicked out of office was the use O-Care to destroy private insurance in order to make way for single payer. That 'plan' is still on track as far as I can tell. If they are politically smart, they will offer something like an expansion of Medicare-C to people starting at age 50. Participants will still have to pay premiums -- only full retirees will continue to get premium-free Medicare, but much smaller ones and their employer could pay it. I am forced to concede that this would be popular for 50+ year olds and their employers alike. They could cut a deal with Trump on this and it would put the Senate GOP in a bind.

But hopefully, they will be stupid and go full single payer monty instead. :)
810   marcus   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 12, 5:49pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

PrivilegedtobeWhite says
Looks like Montana went blue, so potential pickup of 4 depending on Arizona.


What ?

The possible pickup is between zero and two inclusive. Worst case at this point is Republicans increase to 53. Best case - it says at 51. Unlikely, but possible.

Goran was ready to bet $1000 that it would be more than 3.
811   APHAman   ignore (8)   2018 Nov 12, 8:04pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

marcus says
PrivilegedtobeWhite says
Looks like Montana went blue, so potential pickup of 4 depending on Arizona.


What ?

The possible pickup is between zero and two inclusive. Worst case at this point is Republicans increase to 53. Best case - it says at 51. Unlikely, but possible.

Goran was ready to bet $1000 that it would be more than 3.


Did he pay up the $100?
812   Herdingcats   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 14, 5:35am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

APHAman says
Did he pay up the $100?


Apparently Goran was talking about flips. Marcus clearly said 4 was a draw. If Nelson takes Florida Goran should pay up. Personally I think Goran should pay $1,000 if Nelson wins.
813   Herdingcats   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 14, 5:39am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Herdingcats says
APHAman says
Did he pay up the $100?


Apparently Goran was talking about flips. Marcus clearly said 4 was a draw. If Nelson takes Florida Goran should pay up. Personally I think Goran should pay $1,000 if Nelson wins.


Though it was pretty clear Marcus was not talking about flips but pick ups "pluses" +. In that case Goran lost and he should at least pay Marcus $100 or donate $100 to the Democratic party.
814   Herdingcats   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 14, 5:41am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Herdingcats says
Herdingcats says
APHAman says
Did he pay up the $100?


Apparently Goran was talking about flips. Marcus clearly said 4 was a draw. If Nelson takes Florida Goran should pay up. Personally I think Goran should pay $1,000 if Nelson wins.


Though it was pretty clear Marcus was not talking about flips but pick ups "pluses" +. In that case Goran lost and he should at least pay Marcus $100 or donate $100 to the Democratic party.


And if no pay Goran should suffer the same fate he wished on Marcus.

Goran_K says
Pay me.

@Patrick
Can we ban Marcus and his IP if he doesn’t pay up?
815   Herdingcats   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 20, 7:51am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

APHAman says
Did he pay up the $100?


Will Goran always make up an excuse not to pay?
816   HappyGilmore   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 26, 5:21pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HappyGilmore says
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
For posterity:





So, let's recap. As I tried to tell all of you, Nate was almost perfect. Dems are expected to win 38 seats when all is said and done and votes are done counting in CA.

The RCP polling average is going to be pretty damn close as well with Dems +7 or +7.5

My favorite--GA6 went to Dems this go around. Just needed a better candidate than Ossoff.

And as I tried to tell McGee--Republicans have lost suburban soccer Moms for a long time. Dems consistently won all types of suburban districts.

Typically, the party out of power wins in the midterms because the other party doesn't show up to vote. in 2018, Trump got his base out and they voted. But he has alienated so many ...


So, just a quick update and the almost final tally:

Dems have now gained 40 seats, more than almost anyone predicted. Dem House candidates will end up with almost as many votes in a mid-term election as Trump received in a Presidential year. And ended up +8. It was a complete rout.

So, while I'm certain Goran's mind wasn't changed, there is no doubt it was a blue wave.

Long term I think Trump will be great for the Democratic party, but short term it really hurts the country.
817   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 26, 6:28pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

HappyGilmore says
Dems have now gained 40 seats, more than almost anyone predicted. Dem House candidates will end up with almost as many votes in a mid-term election as Trump received in a Presidential year. And ended up +8. It was a complete rout.

So, while I'm certain Goran's mind wasn't changed, there is no doubt it was a blue wave.


And yet, the Republicans picked up two Senate seats.

I'm convinced there was a huge amount of illegal voter mail fraud, and that had Broward not been stopped, Florida would have turned Blue. California is beyond hope, but Arizona was surprising, although I think the GOPe runs Arizona and much of the losses were due to GOPe allowing the Dems to commit fraud without check. In Pennsylvania, the liberal State Supreme Court jerrymandered districts to favor the Democrats.

There were some very odd races where early Republican voting and mail-in ballots when Republicans normally dominate Election Day, ended up with all the ballots counted after election day mysteriously swinging to the Democrat. And many races where the Republican State Officials won by double digit margins, but the Democrat unseated an incumbent, which is unusual in mid-term elections.

Additionally, the results in Orange County showed the Democrats are the new party of the Elite and the Lumpenproles against Middle America and back the 6th-7th Party System idea. This was a realignment election which reflects the new Nationalist Populist vs. Elite Globalist nature of US Politics.

The Dems did get out their base, but I'm not convinced of the married female voter. The suburban SEIU member cat lady yes.

Three pieces of Good News:

* Many of the ousted Republicans were RINOs and these seats were lost by a hair
* It took incredible sums to flip these districts over several cycles, like Georgia 6.
* But many of these districts went Democrat by a hair (again, GA-6) and can easily flip back.

Trump is going to be re-elected in 2020, and the House will swing back like it did in 2010. IF the Republican State legislatures crack down on Fraud and Illegal Voting. If not, we will be swamped by an Elitist-Third World alliance that will destroy the American Dream forever, and blame it all on White Men.

Edit: Another person who deserves blame is Paul Ryan and other GOPe types who populate most of the Ground Forces. He loves globalism and sees populism is a threat.
818   d6rB   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 26, 6:31pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
White Men

Fucking White Men, oppressors of womyn, minorities, and transgendereds
819   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 26, 6:37pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Trump is going to be re-elected in 2020, and the House will swing back like it did in 2010. IF the Republican State legislatures crack down on Fraud and Illegal Voting. If not, we will be swamped by an Elitist-Third World alliance that will destroy the American Dream forever, and blame it all on White Men.


The reason this is possible is because of unmarried women and to a lesser extent, coastal soyboys. The unifying angle is that both groups have no direct descendants to protect, see their cosmopolitan provincialism as a superior and infallible worldview, and hate (married and/or attractive, successful) White Males
820   PrivilegedtobeWhite   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 26, 9:28pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HappyGilmore says
Long term I think Trump will be great for the Democratic party, but short term it really hurts the country.
God save us. I'm embarrassed for humanity when people truly believe socialistic ideals are the way to go. We're slowly killing the human race.
821   Herdingcats   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 27, 7:16am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

PrivilegedtobeWhite says
I'm embarrassed for humanity when people truly believe socialistic ideals are the way to go.


So you believe we should make all roads private, close public schools, close the post office, disband fire, police and the military all socialistic ideals? That's what I'm hearing.
822   P N Dr Lo R   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 27, 7:25am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Herdingcats says
roads private, close public schools, close the post office, disband fire, police and the military all socialistic ideals
These aren't socialism, they're called infrastructure and public services, funded through taxation, common to every municipality. The only exception is public schools, a perfect microcosm of what the Soviet Union would have created and funded. And yes, in virtually every instance with the schools, private outperforms public.
823   Herdingcats   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 27, 7:41am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

P N Dr Lo R says
These aren't socialism


The term used was

Herdingcats says
socialistic ideals


Socialism is taxpayer funds being used collectively to benefit society as a whole.

Just because you don't think about it as a socialist ideal doesn't make it not a socialist ideal.
824   Herdingcats   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 27, 7:45am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

P N Dr Lo R says
in virtually every instance with the schools, private outperforms public


And how much more money is spent at those private schools?
825   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   ignore (35)   2018 Nov 27, 7:49am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

This is easy to fix. All Trump needs to do is pretend the GOP won both the Senate and House races and keep shouting SUCK! MY! DICK! on TV every couple of hours and tweet insane shit and pretend Nunes still runs House intel and he'll go down as the greatest president in history. Maybe he can have the House disbanded.
826   Herdingcats   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 27, 7:56am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Herdingcats says
P N Dr Lo R says
in virtually every instance with the schools, private outperforms public


And how much more money is spent at those private schools?


No way... Looks like they average out to about the same! I'd guess that administration costs eats up a bigger part of public schools costs.
827   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 28, 5:54am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

And with the Mississippi race finally decided, the Senate stands at 53-47.
828   marcus   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 28, 6:14am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

personal
829   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 28, 6:45am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
And with the Mississippi race finally decided, the Senate stands at 53-47.


#bluewave
830   marcus   ignore (4)   2018 Nov 28, 6:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

personal
831   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Nov 28, 6:56am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

marcus says
Sad. You must be so proud.


I’m generally happy.

Election is over. We were both off the mark. But still no blue wave.
832   RC2006   ignore (0)   2018 Nov 28, 8:53am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Need to be called the #blueundertow dragging people back to the depths.
833   APHAman   ignore (8)   2018 Dec 4, 7:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
marcus says
Sad. You must be so proud.


I’m generally happy.

Election is over. We were both off the mark. But still no blue wave.


No blue wave? Lol, did you welch on your bet again?

http://www.electproject.org/2018g
834   Herdingcats   ignore (0)   2018 Dec 4, 7:46pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

APHAman says
Goran_K says
marcus says
Sad. You must be so proud.


I’m generally happy.

Election is over. We were both off the mark. But still no blue wave.


No blue wave? Lol, did you welch on your bet again?

http://www.electproject.org/2018g


There was a BLUE tsunami in the OC.
835   FortWayneIndiana   ignore (0)   2018 Dec 4, 7:54pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Herdingcats says
APHAman says
Goran_K says
marcus says
Sad. You must be so proud.


I’m generally happy.

Election is over. We were both off the mark. But still no blue wave.


No blue wave? Lol, did you welch on your bet again?

http://www.electproject.org/2018g


There was a BLUE tsunami in the OC.


That needs to be court challenged. There was no blue tsunami, just a whole lot of election fraud with strangers turning in "other peoples" ballots by 100,000+ at a time.
836   Herdingcats   ignore (0)   2018 Dec 5, 5:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

FortWayneIndiana says
That needs to be court challenged.


It is in Georgia, hopefully we can put a stop to the Jim crow tactics of the Republicans and finally stop disenfranchising honest hard working Americans.

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