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There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!

By Goran_K following x   2018 May 14, 8:51am 6,882 views   496 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    




Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.

Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.

Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".

"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."

That's when Morris dropped his prediction.

"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."

Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.

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241   rdm   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 20, 10:17am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Is that the standard for legally recognizing a religion? A panel of experts?


The IRS and the courts seem to determine what is a "legitimate" religion. The IRS determines tax exempt status (my opinion is this should be revoked for all religions) I would guess they have written criteria for this, but don't know. I remember years ago the Native American religion that used peyote as part of its, in my opinion, legit religious ceremony lost in court when trying to get a waiver from the law outlawing peyote's use and possession. I think there has subsequently been some accommodation. Clearly the law as it is interpreted favors established so called mainstream religions. Islam falls into that category whether you like it or not. Some countries such as Russia have "officially" recognized religions and they do not recognize others, they banned Jehovah's Witness a few years ago. I don't believe U.S. can do this due to the establishment clause.
242   Misc   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 20, 10:28am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I think that the republicans will lose a few seats in the House, but will not lose the majority. They should probably keep the majority in the Senate, as well. The economy has improved so much under Trump that people will vote their pocket books. The job gains under Obama were all part time jobs. There have been millions of full time jobs created under Trump and many part time jobs converted to full time (these are not fully reflected in the job numbers). It is not just a continuation of a trend, the full time jobs now being created mean a much better economy.
243   Rin   ignore (3)   2018 Aug 20, 10:46am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

rdm says
LeonDurham says
Is that the standard for legally recognizing a religion? A panel of experts?


The IRS and the courts seem to determine what is a "legitimate" religion.


Which loops back to the main point, what is our judiciary system?... aside from being a panel of legally trained experts, albeit, over represented by places like Harvard or Yale Law Schools.

And yes, these judges will defer to the expert opinions of anthropologists, historians, and political scientists as to whether or not Islam is a religion or not. And since most would concur that it was a religion, then that pathway won't work.

Let's just hope that they reach out from beyond Harvard and Yale. That's too much Ivy league incest.
245   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 23, 5:13pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/gop-poised-midterm-wipeout-apos-130000367.html

Politics
GOP poised for midterm wipeout as 'blue wave' scenario gives Democrats a 12-point lead: NBC-WSJ poll

John Harwood,CNBC 11 hours ago

"The new NBC News-Wall Street Journal survey, taken six weeks before Americans head to the polls, shows Democrats leading Republicans by 52 percent to 40 percent for control of Congress.
If it holds, that 12 percentage point margin would suggest a "blue wave" large enough to switch control of not just the House but also the Senate."
247   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (4)   2018 Sep 24, 3:56pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Republican Party Favorability highest in 7 years:

Republican favorability at 45%, Democrats at 44%
Democrats generally have had the upper hand in favorability ratings
Major gains for Republican Party within the party, including leaners
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Forty-five percent of Americans now have a favorable view of the Republican Party, a nine-point gain from last September's 36%. It is the party's most positive image since it registered 47% in January 2011, shortly after taking control of the House in the 2010 midterm elections. Forty-four percent give the Democratic Party a favorable rating.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/242906/republican-party-favorability-highest-seven-years.aspx
248   Aphroman   ignore (7)   2018 Sep 24, 4:12pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Republican Party Favorability highest in 7 years:

Republican favorability at 45%, Democrats at 44%
Democrats generally have had the upper hand in favorability ratings
Major gains for Republican Party within the party, including leaners
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Forty-five percent of Americans now have a favorable view of the Republican Party, a nine-point gain from last September's 36%. It is the party's most positive image since it registered 47% in January 2011, shortly after taking control of the House in the 2010 midterm elections. Forty-four percent give the Democratic Party a favorable rating.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/242906/republican-party-favorability-highest-seven-years.aspx


This should come as no surprise now that everyone seed that Trump is indistinguishable from any other old GOPe Failed Loser

Which is why you see him crawling in bed with Swamp Monsters like Lying Ted and The Vagabond Mitt Romney.
249   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 24, 4:13pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

This thread will be fun to visit in Six weeks. I’m glad I got the first comment. On record in May for RED WAVE!
250   Aphroman   ignore (7)   2018 Sep 24, 4:15pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
This thread will be fun to visit in Six weeks. I’m glad I got the first comment. On record in May for RED WAVE!


You really went on the limb there with that bold prediction
251   lostand confused   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 24, 5:08pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I am predicting repubs will hold the house in smaller numbers and increase senate. Lets see. Me thinks dems overplayed their hand with kavanaugh -next will be Hilalry ina dominatrix suite claiming Kavanugh stiffed her fee.
252   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 24, 8:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

One race here in Va you may find interesting. The Virginia 2nd District seat would normally be a shoe-in for the ex Navy SEAL incumbent, but his campaign staff did a little fraud helping a primaried out Democrat collect signatures so she could run as an Independent. That would split the Democrat votes and help the incumbent win. If the incumbent loses, (not sure what the odds are) it will be as a reaction to this fraud. A court case threw out the collected signatures, so the Independent is not on the ballot.
253   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 4, 10:49am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Now I'm positive there won't be a blue wave.

Last week, I sued @realDonaldTrump & @senatemajldr to stop the unconstitutional Kavanaugh confirmation process. Today I filed a motion for a restraining order against Trump and McConnell to force immediate disclosure of the Kavanaugh record they’ve been working so hard to hide.

— Jeff Merkley (@JeffMerkley) October 3, 2018



The Democrats shot themselves in the foot REALLY badly. Their only hope to stop Kavanaugh's appointment, but at this point I don't think it matters.

Imagine, the Media no longer controls the narrative.

"Hit the Identity/Rape/Toxic White Male button again!"
"I can't"
"Why not?"
"It's jammed to the on position!"
254   Tenpoundbass   ignore (11)   2018 Oct 4, 10:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The blue Squirt!
255   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 4, 11:07am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Holy crap, look at Cramer vs. Heitkamp. A nobody is beating the crap out of a well-known Senator, RCP average is 8.7 pts - some have him leading by double digits!
256   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 11:10am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

New prediction, more specific this time. The GOP will pick up 8-10 seats in the Senate and 15 in the House. This will establish a supermajority in Congress while several GOPe congressmen were either primaried out or retired, and all the new GOP congressmen will be Pro-MAGA!

Trump will have a mandate.
Leftist tears enough to fill Lake Michigan!

Glorious!
257   MegaForce   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 11:27am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
New prediction, more specific this time. The GOP will pick up 8-10 seats in the Senate and 15 in the House. This will establish a supermajority in Congress while several GOPe congressmen were either primaried out or retired, and all the new GOP congressmen will be Pro-MAGA!

Trump will have a mandate.
Leftist tears enough to fill Lake Michigan!

Glorious!


Hey! You stole PART of my prediction! :)~

Mine also included massive net losses in state legislatures and governorships, some the Dems have held for a long time. Why? What is now going to happen thanks to Kavanaugh is #Walkaway times 11, that's why.

GOP now has the supermajority of the male vote for at least a couple of election cycles, not to mention how African-American males are a tad bit sensitive to unsubstantiated rape charges.

Something to do with a long history of African-American males being slammed with such things, ya think!
258   MegaForce   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 11:29am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
The Democrats shot themselves in the foot REALLY badly. Their only hope to stop Kavanaugh's appointment, but at this point I don't think it matters.


How will stopping his appointment help? It is no longer about his appointment. It never really was, actually. It was always about the election...except for Harris and Booker. For those two, it was/still is always about the 2020 presidential nomination from the Batshit Crazy Party.

Confirmed or not, people will vote by what went down for the most part, I think.
260   jazz_music   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 4, 11:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
Leftist tears enough to fill Lake Michigan!

Ahhh sweet dreams

and the riches from the wage earners will keep flowing to all the gamblers.
261   WookieMan   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 12:29pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
Leftist tears enough to fill Lake Michigan!


Careful. Lake Michigan is the fullest I've seen it on the Chicago shoreline in my lifetime. Just drove by on Sunday to the last regular season cubs game. Shit, she was bulging. Wisconsin has gotten tons of rain this summer, which of course all goes out over the lake. No tears please, it's full.
262   Evan F.   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 12:36pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
The GOP will pick up 8-10 seats in the Senate and 15 in the House.

Not sure where you're drawing those conclusions from. Odds are good that the Repubs will pick up a couple seats in the Senate, but the House? Not quite.
263   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 12:52pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The anger about the Kavanagh Kangaroo Kourt is real and will drive extra beatings than were already in store for the Democrats. Remember I predicted a red wave in May.
That red wave just got ten feet higher!

The Democrats just marginalized their party for a generation.
264   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 4, 1:11pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Official: Heitkamp is out of the Race for ND Senate. Vows to vote "No" on Kavanaugh.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1047914985341558785
265   Evan F.   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 1:22pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Official: Heitkamp is out of the Race for ND Senate. Vows to vote "No" on Kavanaugh.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1047914985341558785

Heitkamp has been trailing Cramer since like May. The Kavanaugh hearings may have moved the needle infinitesimally but she's been in an uphill battle for at least 2 months before Kavanaugh was even announced.

In all likelihood she knows she's toast and is just voting her conscience.
266   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 1:31pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Official: Heitkamp is out of the Race for ND Senate. Vows to vote "No" on Kavanaugh.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1047914985341558785


Just like that, ND got a GOP senator in November.
267   MegaForce   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 3:31pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
Just like that, ND got a GOP senator in November.


She was screwed no matter how she voted. Vote 'yes' and lose her base. Lose her base, guaranteed to lose the election.

Vote 'no', she keeps her base but will probably lose the election anyway. Poll show that 50% of Likely Voters in ND support Kavanaugh.
268   MegaForce   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 3:58pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Planned Parenthood Action Tweet threatening Democrats:

https://twitter.com/PPact/status/1047857373514223616
269   curious2   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 4:31pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Democrats' 2018 "Better Deal" leaves a lot of room for improvement. It seems mainly about adding government programs.

For example, to address absurdly high medical costs, "Prescription drugs that meet a test for an unconscionable price increase will be subject to new investigative and enforcement action by a new “price gouging” enforcer." Nevermind the already absurdly high baseline, and the routine increases: only an "unconscionable" increase will trigger review. And forget about market competition. Repealing the Rx requirement and import restrictions, so that people can shop around and buy what they want from wherever they want, would reduce costs dramatically and quickly, but that is not part of the deal.

I don't see huge numbers of people rallying around creating new government departments. The game plan seems to be primarily TDS, opposing the President and all of his works. That didn't work in 2016, so it seems unlikely to do better in 2018 when he isn't even on the ballot.

I would love to be proven wrong about this, because I do think divided government produces better judicial appointments, and for that reason I would like to see Democrats regain the Senate. I just don't see it happening with the current "deal".
270   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 5:00pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

MockingbirdKiller says
She was screwed no matter how she voted. Vote 'yes' and lose her base. Lose her base, guaranteed to lose the election.

Vote 'no', she keeps her base but will probably lose the election anyway. Poll show that 50% of Likely Voters in ND support Kavanaugh.


True. Red State Democrats should really learn a lesson from Manchin (who will probably end up switching parties anyway).
271   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 5:01pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

curious2 says
I don't see huge numbers of people rallying around creating new government departments.


What else do Democrats offer besides more Government programs mired by corruption and inefficiency?
274   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 10, 1:29pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Only Progressive Activists, 8% of population, think Free Speech isn't an issue. Only Traditional Liberals (11%) and Progressive Activists (8%) think Hate Speech is more of an issue than Free Speech. Ignore the loud minority.



https://pjmedia.com/trending/80-percent-of-americans-oppose-political-correctness-study-finds/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
275   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 10, 4:30pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag        

https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/410575-poll-dems-lead-gop-by-13-points-on-generic-congressional-ballot

Democrats hold a 13-point lead over Republicans among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot
276   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 10, 4:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

That same very biased CNN poll said that 50% of the same people thought the GOP would retain the majority in the House.
278   PrivilegedtobeWhite   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 10, 5:15pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

haha, that's great
279   MbS   ignore (3)   2018 Oct 10, 5:42pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Democrats hold a 13-point lead over Republicans among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot


Good. News like this usually lead to less turnout on the "winning" side.
280   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 10, 5:45pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

DASKAA says
Good. News like this usually lead to less turnout on the "winning" side.


Maybe. Dems seem pretty energized this time around. Predicting turnout is very difficult, however, so you could be right.

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