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There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!

By Goran_K following x   2018 May 14, 8:51am 27,373 views   761 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    




Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.

Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.

Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".

"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."

That's when Morris dropped his prediction.

"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."

Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.

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241   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 4, 11:07am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Holy crap, look at Cramer vs. Heitkamp. A nobody is beating the crap out of a well-known Senator, RCP average is 8.7 pts - some have him leading by double digits!
242   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 11:10am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

New prediction, more specific this time. The GOP will pick up 8-10 seats in the Senate and 15 in the House. This will establish a supermajority in Congress while several GOPe congressmen were either primaried out or retired, and all the new GOP congressmen will be Pro-MAGA!

Trump will have a mandate.
Leftist tears enough to fill Lake Michigan!

Glorious!
243   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 11:27am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
New prediction, more specific this time. The GOP will pick up 8-10 seats in the Senate and 15 in the House. This will establish a supermajority in Congress while several GOPe congressmen were either primaried out or retired, and all the new GOP congressmen will be Pro-MAGA!

Trump will have a mandate.
Leftist tears enough to fill Lake Michigan!

Glorious!


Hey! You stole PART of my prediction! :)~

Mine also included massive net losses in state legislatures and governorships, some the Dems have held for a long time. Why? What is now going to happen thanks to Kavanaugh is #Walkaway times 11, that's why.

GOP now has the supermajority of the male vote for at least a couple of election cycles, not to mention how African-American males are a tad bit sensitive to unsubstantiated rape charges.

Something to do with a long history of African-American males being slammed with such things, ya think!
244   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 11:29am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
The Democrats shot themselves in the foot REALLY badly. Their only hope to stop Kavanaugh's appointment, but at this point I don't think it matters.


How will stopping his appointment help? It is no longer about his appointment. It never really was, actually. It was always about the election...except for Harris and Booker. For those two, it was/still is always about the 2020 presidential nomination from the Batshit Crazy Party.

Confirmed or not, people will vote by what went down for the most part, I think.
246   jazz_music   ignore (6)   2018 Oct 4, 11:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
Leftist tears enough to fill Lake Michigan!

Ahhh sweet dreams

and the riches from the wage earners will keep flowing to all the gamblers.
247   WookieMan   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 12:29pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
Leftist tears enough to fill Lake Michigan!


Careful. Lake Michigan is the fullest I've seen it on the Chicago shoreline in my lifetime. Just drove by on Sunday to the last regular season cubs game. Shit, she was bulging. Wisconsin has gotten tons of rain this summer, which of course all goes out over the lake. No tears please, it's full.
248   Evan F.   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 12:36pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
The GOP will pick up 8-10 seats in the Senate and 15 in the House.

Not sure where you're drawing those conclusions from. Odds are good that the Repubs will pick up a couple seats in the Senate, but the House? Not quite.
249   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 12:52pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The anger about the Kavanagh Kangaroo Kourt is real and will drive extra beatings than were already in store for the Democrats. Remember I predicted a red wave in May.
That red wave just got ten feet higher!

The Democrats just marginalized their party for a generation.
250   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 4, 1:11pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Official: Heitkamp is out of the Race for ND Senate. Vows to vote "No" on Kavanaugh.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1047914985341558785
251   Evan F.   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 1:22pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Official: Heitkamp is out of the Race for ND Senate. Vows to vote "No" on Kavanaugh.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1047914985341558785

Heitkamp has been trailing Cramer since like May. The Kavanaugh hearings may have moved the needle infinitesimally but she's been in an uphill battle for at least 2 months before Kavanaugh was even announced.

In all likelihood she knows she's toast and is just voting her conscience.
252   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 1:31pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Official: Heitkamp is out of the Race for ND Senate. Vows to vote "No" on Kavanaugh.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1047914985341558785


Just like that, ND got a GOP senator in November.
253   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 3:31pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
Just like that, ND got a GOP senator in November.


She was screwed no matter how she voted. Vote 'yes' and lose her base. Lose her base, guaranteed to lose the election.

Vote 'no', she keeps her base but will probably lose the election anyway. Poll show that 50% of Likely Voters in ND support Kavanaugh.
254   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 3:58pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Planned Parenthood Action Tweet threatening Democrats:

https://twitter.com/PPact/status/1047857373514223616
255   curious2   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 4:31pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Democrats' 2018 "Better Deal" leaves a lot of room for improvement. It seems mainly about adding government programs.

For example, to address absurdly high medical costs, "Prescription drugs that meet a test for an unconscionable price increase will be subject to new investigative and enforcement action by a new “price gouging” enforcer." Nevermind the already absurdly high baseline, and the routine increases: only an "unconscionable" increase will trigger review. And forget about market competition. Repealing the Rx requirement and import restrictions, so that people can shop around and buy what they want from wherever they want, would reduce costs dramatically and quickly, but that is not part of the deal.

I don't see huge numbers of people rallying around creating new government departments. The game plan seems to be primarily TDS, opposing the President and all of his works. That didn't work in 2016, so it seems unlikely to do better in 2018 when he isn't even on the ballot.

I would love to be proven wrong about this, because I do think divided government produces better judicial appointments, and for that reason I would like to see Democrats regain the Senate. I just don't see it happening with the current "deal".
256   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 5:00pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

MockingbirdKiller says
She was screwed no matter how she voted. Vote 'yes' and lose her base. Lose her base, guaranteed to lose the election.

Vote 'no', she keeps her base but will probably lose the election anyway. Poll show that 50% of Likely Voters in ND support Kavanaugh.


True. Red State Democrats should really learn a lesson from Manchin (who will probably end up switching parties anyway).
257   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 5:01pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

curious2 says
I don't see huge numbers of people rallying around creating new government departments.


What else do Democrats offer besides more Government programs mired by corruption and inefficiency?
260   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 10, 1:29pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Only Progressive Activists, 8% of population, think Free Speech isn't an issue. Only Traditional Liberals (11%) and Progressive Activists (8%) think Hate Speech is more of an issue than Free Speech. Ignore the loud minority.



https://pjmedia.com/trending/80-percent-of-americans-oppose-political-correctness-study-finds/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
261   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 10, 4:30pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag        

https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/410575-poll-dems-lead-gop-by-13-points-on-generic-congressional-ballot

Democrats hold a 13-point lead over Republicans among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot
262   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 10, 4:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

That same very biased CNN poll said that 50% of the same people thought the GOP would retain the majority in the House.
264   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Oct 10, 5:15pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

haha, that's great
265   Hugolas_Madurez   ignore (5)   2018 Oct 10, 5:42pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Democrats hold a 13-point lead over Republicans among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot


Good. News like this usually lead to less turnout on the "winning" side.
266   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 10, 5:45pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

DASKAA says
Good. News like this usually lead to less turnout on the "winning" side.


Maybe. Dems seem pretty energized this time around. Predicting turnout is very difficult, however, so you could be right.
267   CBOEtrader   ignore (5)   2018 Oct 10, 5:48pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/410575-poll-dems-lead-gop-by-13-points-on-generic-congressional-ballot

Democrats hold a 13-point lead over Republicans among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot


Oh also, HRC holds a 13 point advantage over Trump. https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html
268   CBOEtrader   ignore (5)   2018 Oct 10, 5:50pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

"The ABC News poll was conducted October 20-22 and includes 874 likely voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."

Ok, so for anyone paying attention. A 12 point lead w a 3.5 % margin of error should almost NEVER result in a Trump victory.

Tell us again about those reliable polls?
269   TrumpingTits   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 10, 7:31pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

CBOEtrader says
"The ABC News poll was conducted October 20-22 and includes 874 likely voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."


Yeah. Likely voters asked totally unlikely questions regarding the real world.
270   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 10, 7:45pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

What I’m seeing is this. people who’ve sidelined themselves from politics or voting for years or even decades because they don’t believe in the process are having a change of heart. They’re seeing things happen that could have never happened when one of the trained apes who usually run the world were in charge. They see that the Democrats are completely deranged and hostile to regular Americans. They deeply mistrust these Leftists and are ready to cast a vote they haven’t used in years to keep the idiots from getting back in power.
I’m predicting a MUCH larger Republican turnout than anyone expects. And I’m predicting a smaller Dem turnout than expected. It’ll be a bloodbath.
271   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 10, 7:50pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TrumpingTits says
CBOEtrader says
"The ABC News poll was conducted October 20-22 and includes 874 likely voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."


Yeah. Likely voters asked totally unlikely questions regarding the real world.


Was the election on October 22nd?
272   marcus   ignore (7)   2018 Oct 10, 9:38pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Democrats will take control of the house, but probably not enough of a blue wave for them to take the senate.

But I am praying that they do, and I hardly ever pray.
273   Patrick   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 10, 9:59pm   ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I'm betting Democrats lose even more seats. Not certain, just a feeling.
274   CBOEtrader   ignore (5)   2018 Oct 11, 4:43am   ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
I'm betting Democrats lose even more seats. Not certain, just a feeling.


Yup. Only 3 times in history has the party w newly elected potus gained seats. Midterms lining up to be as historical as 2016 epection.

MSM ignores traditions and attacked trump from day 1. This backfired enormously since Trump circumvented then via twitter and rallies. Whatever negative influence the MSM originally had has turned on them as more red pilled Americans support trump than ever.

Oddly enough it is the left constantly attacking, constantly smearing, constantly oppressing any wrongthinkers that has become Trump's biggest asset.
275   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 11, 6:28am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I’m just wondering what the next step will be for Democrats once the bloodbath of Midterms is over? Will they accept that America hates their stance on practically everything and make some changes? Or will they double down, increase the hate, and get even more radical?
I’m fearing that it will be the latter option. They aren’t sane.
276   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 11, 7:43am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
I’m just wondering what the next step will be for Democrats once the bloodbath of Midterms is over? Will they accept that America hates their stance on practically everything and make some changes? Or will they double down, increase the hate, and get even more radical?
I’m fearing that it will be the latter option. They aren’t sane.


I would like to see the sane elements left in the Democrat Party break off and form a new Labor Party. Imagine a Party that is pro worker by curtailing illegal immigration, tariffs on low wage high pollution imports, and supporting private sector unions. May even pull in some Trump supporters and even Trump himself.
278   d6rB   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 11, 7:58am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
I'm betting Democrats lose even more seats. Not certain, just a feeling

I frankly can't make up my mind on this. R's will hold Senate for sure, may be even gain a seat or two, but House is extremely unpredictable. My prediction is +/- same situation as now.
280   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 11, 10:30am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
I'm betting Democrats lose even more seats. Not certain, just a feeling.


You and me both. Especially in the Senate. I think 4 - 8 seats there will not be Dem incumbents returning in the next Congress. With Kavanaugh, they screwed & tattooed their Red State Dems for sure.

House...I think that the Dems' NET election gains will be a wash at best. Or if they do see gains, the amount of lost seats will still prevent them from taking it.

I plan on working from home on Nov 7. I work in downtown Oakland and don't want to be targeted by the Mob of the Vicious Losers that will be sure to 'spontaneously' form.
283   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 12:54pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Aphroman says
Goran: go to matchbook.com I’m offering up Ted Cruz vs Beto O’Rourke action, who wants some!


I want some.

How does matchbook work? Are we betting against each other or against the house? I'll only do this if I'm betting against your pocket book. I can bet on odds all day, that's not fun.
284   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 12:55pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

or lets just do a gentleman's $500 bet right now. I take Cruz straight up, you take Beta.
285   cmdrdataleak   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 1:53pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
or lets just do a gentleman's $500 bet right now. I take Cruz straight up, you take Beta.


pat.net feature request: current events wager book.
286   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 2:04pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Perhaps we could make bets and the loser has to donate to Patnet in the agreed upon amount?
I bet you a $100 donation to Patnet that there’s a Red Wave this November. That we end up with more Republicans in Congress than before the election.
Aphroman wanna take that bet? Patrick can ban any welshers!
287   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 2:27pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
Perhaps we could make bets and the loser has to donate to Patnet in the agreed upon amount?
I bet you a $100 donation to Patnet that there’s a Red Wave this November. That we end up with more Republicans in Congress than before the election.
Aphroman wanna take that bet? Patrick can ban any welshers!


Full disclosure to @Aphroman: Democrat running in a Florida district Trump LOST by TWENTY points in 2016 is behind her GOP opponent.

http://patrick.net/post/1319512/2018-10-12-blue-wave-bullshit-exposed-new-poll-shows-democrat-shalala-trailing-gop-opponent-in-a-district-trump-lost-badly

Aside from that: I am good for $100 donation to pat.net should the Red Wave prove true.

@Quigley Define 'Congress' in the 'more Republicans in...than before the election'. Is that sum net total of both combined or more in each House?
288   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 2:32pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

MockingbirdKiller says
Full disclosure to @Aphroman: Democrat running in a Florida district Trump LOST by TWENTY points in 2016 is behind her GOP opponent.


Blew Wave!
290   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 2:49pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

cmdrdataleak says
pat.net feature request: current events wager book.


I think this would be a good feature @patrick. Could plug into PayPal.

Right now a lot of people talk way too much shit because it's free.

I'd like someone to talk shit when $500 is on the line.
291   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 3:06pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
I'd like someone to talk shit when $500 is on the line.

Oh man!

The commie wu mau Soros trolls on here will SCREAM about that one! Then when that doesn't work, they'll demand 'progressive' betting liability redistribution.

293   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 4:30pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

How about $500 on who gains in the House?

Goran wins if Republicans pick up seats, I win if Dems pick up seats.
294   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 4:34pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
How about $500 on who gains in the House?

Goran wins if Republicans pick up seats, I win if Dems pick up seats.


I'll do a bet on who KEEPS the house and Senate.

If the Dems recover the house but not the senate (or vice versa) then it's a wash.

But it Dems pick up both (aka Blue Wave), I pay you $500.

If GOP keeps both, you pay me $500.

I'll take bets on this up to $2000 from other people who want to throw their money on the table.

Would you do that bet?
295   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 4:36pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I thought you were predicting a red wave? Doesn't sound like you're too confident.
296   d6rB   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 4:38pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Interesting re. Hispanics, who are supposed to vote D reliably...but apparently not in TX

A new poll released Thursday morning showed Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has stabilized his lead over his Democrat challenger, U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of El Paso.

Fifty-four percent of Texans backed Cruz, while 45 percent backed O'Rourke in the latest Quinnipiac University poll.

The poll also shows Republican Gov. Greg Abbott with a prohibitive lead over his Democratic rival, former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez, 58 percent to 38 percent.

Strikingly, while Valdez and O'Rourke have consolidated support among African Americans, Abbott and Cruz garnered sizable Hispanic support. Cruz had the backing of 37 percent of Hispanic respondents while nearly half of Hispanics surveyed — 46 percent — supported Abbott.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10/11/cruz-orourke-poll-senate-texas/

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2578
297   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 4:39pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Doesn't sound like you're too confident.


I'm confident that there will be no Blue Wave, hence this thread.

I'm also willing to put $500 on it. Are you?

"Gaining seats" means nothing. The Dems can gain "1 seat" and you win $500, but the Dems would have no control over the House or the Senate.

I'm betting for CONTROL of both houses (aka Blue Wave). But you seem to doubt it will happen , hence you're not accepting the bet?
298   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 4:45pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
"Gaining seats" means nothing. The Dems can gain "1 seat" and you win $500, but the Dems would have no control over the House or the Senate.


Gaining 1 seat means one more Dem vote. It most definitely means something.

Yes, I highly doubt the Dems will win the Senate. It's a longshot.
299   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 4:47pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Gaining 1 seat means one more Dem vote.


Well, I'm glad those are the type of victories the Dems are getting excited for. It means that the perception of the blue wave has become the "blew wave".

That makes me happy.
300   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 4:52pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
Well, I'm glad those are the type of victories the Dems are getting excited for. It means that the perception of the blue wave has become the "blew wave".

That makes me happy.


Actually you'll be sad then when they gain control of the House.
301   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 4:53pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Actually you'll be sad then when they gain control of the House.


And if they don't? Will you disappear or change your screen name again joey/tatupu/leon?

I'm happy for the 2 SCOTUS picks, 29 judges for the United States Courts of Appeals, 53 judges for the United States District Courts, and 49 Federal Judge appointments that will ALL be confirmed by next week.

All of whom will help deny anymore SJW/Dem/Socialist insanity.
302   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 12, 4:56pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Actually you'll be sad then when they gain control of the House.


They'll finally be able to get Trump on all that Russian Collusion evidence that Mueller has.

But I think Americans won't fall for that Democratic Okie-Dokie.
303   d6rB   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 4:58pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
I'll do a bet on who KEEPS the house and Senate.

I do not think there is any chance in hell that D's will win Senate...so the bet is a losing proposition for person betting against you.
304   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 5:00pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

dr6B says
I do not think there is any chance in hell that D's will win Senate...so the bet is a losing proposition for person betting against you.


Yes, but the "blue wave" was supposed to be an over take of both houses.

The senate (we all know) is lost.

The house is the actual real battle. But the funny thing is, it should not be a battle. Incumbents have only kept it 4 times in US History. But for some reason, it's gotten so close again.

I wonder why!

305   RC2006   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 5:01pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Even on NPR they think democrats fucked up and energized Republicans over SC drama.
306   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 5:03pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
Yes, but the "blue wave" was supposed to be an over take of both houses.


"supposed" What the hell does that mean? It's always been almost impossible for Dems to win the Senate--even in a blue tsunami it's a tall order.
307   d6rB   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 5:03pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
I wonder why!

I'd say both sides are crooks but only one of the sides is fucking insane, and that is why "blue wave" will not materialize.
308   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 5:04pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
The house is the actual real battle. But the funny thing is, it should not be a battle. Incumbents have only kept it 4 times in US History. But for some reason, it's gotten so close again.


It really hasn't. It's only close in your mind.

And that's why you won't bet on House control.
309   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 5:05pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
It really hasn't. It's only close in your mind.


Maybe you should go get an NPR or CNN/NBC/WallStreet Journal poll to REALLY convince me.
310   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 12, 5:08pm   ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

November 5th: "NYT and 538 say the Dems have a 98% of winning the Senate"
November 7th: "Uh, you're such an ignorant. The NYT/538 never said the Dems would win the Senate. Only a 98% chance. You don't understand math!"

Maybe a repeat of 2016?
311   RC2006   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 5:15pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I hope dems get blown out, then maybe they will get off the crazy train and back to working class politics and the little guy (not the tranny guy).
312   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 5:15pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
November 5th: "NYT and 538 say the Dems have a 98% of winning the Senate"
November 7th: "Uh, you're such an ignorant. The NYT/538 never said the Dems would win the Senate. Only a 98% chance. You don't understand math!"

Maybe a repeat of 2016?


Uh--wtf are you talking about? That example has no resemblance to anything 538 every said.
313   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 5:16pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says

Maybe you should go get an NPR or CNN/NBC/WallStreet Journal poll to REALLY convince me.


Great---then you should be happy to bet on House control, right?
314   d6rB   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 5:16pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Maybe a repeat of 2016?

If D's pull off another crap of the type Kavanaugh is Guilty Because He Has A Penis, then we can not exclude 2016 repeat.

I do not like however total dominance of one party, as constant winning will bring out village idiots in R ranks, namely religious fanatics.
315   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 12, 5:20pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Uh--wtf are you talking about? That example has no resemblance to anything 538 every said.

Official NYT Prediction: "only 93%" chance to win two weeks before the election.


I couldn't find the morning November 8th one, but here is the NYT official prediction as of 10PM EST on Election Day:


Nate "only" had her at 70% chance of winning.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/nate-silver-of-538-makes-final-election-day-prediction_2182990.html

And here's HuffPo

316   d6rB   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 5:21pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

RC2006 says
little guy (not the tranny guy)

we can only wish, but humans tend to double down on their mistakes. I suspect D's will be helping the little tranny guy...
317   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 5:23pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
LeonDurham says
Uh--wtf are you talking about? That example has no resemblance to anything 538 every said.

Official NYT Prediction: "only 93%" chance to win two weeks before the election.


So when I say that 538 never said anything like what you posted, you counter with quotes from:

Huffpost,and NYT?

Typical disingenuous Trump cultist response.
318   Patrick   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 12, 6:31pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I like this wager book idea, though I have to think about the legal issues and payment issues.
319   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 12, 6:42pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
So when I say that 538 never said anything like what you posted, you counter with quotes from:

Huffpost,and NYT?

Typical disingenuous Trump cultist response.


And nate silver himself. Go back and read. I even included a link.
320   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 12, 7:48pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
And nate silver himself. Go back and read. I even included a link.


70 doesn't equal 99. Hopefully you know that.

Basically he said 1 out of every 3 times, Trump will win. Not exactly a huge upset.

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