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There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!

By Goran_K following x   2018 May 14, 8:51am 26,603 views   761 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    




Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.

Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.

Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".

"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."

That's when Morris dropped his prediction.

"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."

Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.

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241   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 4, 11:07am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Holy crap, look at Cramer vs. Heitkamp. A nobody is beating the crap out of a well-known Senator, RCP average is 8.7 pts - some have him leading by double digits!
242   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 11:10am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

New prediction, more specific this time. The GOP will pick up 8-10 seats in the Senate and 15 in the House. This will establish a supermajority in Congress while several GOPe congressmen were either primaried out or retired, and all the new GOP congressmen will be Pro-MAGA!

Trump will have a mandate.
Leftist tears enough to fill Lake Michigan!

Glorious!
243   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 11:27am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
New prediction, more specific this time. The GOP will pick up 8-10 seats in the Senate and 15 in the House. This will establish a supermajority in Congress while several GOPe congressmen were either primaried out or retired, and all the new GOP congressmen will be Pro-MAGA!

Trump will have a mandate.
Leftist tears enough to fill Lake Michigan!

Glorious!


Hey! You stole PART of my prediction! :)~

Mine also included massive net losses in state legislatures and governorships, some the Dems have held for a long time. Why? What is now going to happen thanks to Kavanaugh is #Walkaway times 11, that's why.

GOP now has the supermajority of the male vote for at least a couple of election cycles, not to mention how African-American males are a tad bit sensitive to unsubstantiated rape charges.

Something to do with a long history of African-American males being slammed with such things, ya think!
244   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 11:29am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
The Democrats shot themselves in the foot REALLY badly. Their only hope to stop Kavanaugh's appointment, but at this point I don't think it matters.


How will stopping his appointment help? It is no longer about his appointment. It never really was, actually. It was always about the election...except for Harris and Booker. For those two, it was/still is always about the 2020 presidential nomination from the Batshit Crazy Party.

Confirmed or not, people will vote by what went down for the most part, I think.
246   jazz_music   ignore (6)   2018 Oct 4, 11:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
Leftist tears enough to fill Lake Michigan!

Ahhh sweet dreams

and the riches from the wage earners will keep flowing to all the gamblers.
247   WookieMan   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 12:29pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
Leftist tears enough to fill Lake Michigan!


Careful. Lake Michigan is the fullest I've seen it on the Chicago shoreline in my lifetime. Just drove by on Sunday to the last regular season cubs game. Shit, she was bulging. Wisconsin has gotten tons of rain this summer, which of course all goes out over the lake. No tears please, it's full.
248   Evan F.   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 12:36pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
The GOP will pick up 8-10 seats in the Senate and 15 in the House.

Not sure where you're drawing those conclusions from. Odds are good that the Repubs will pick up a couple seats in the Senate, but the House? Not quite.
249   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 12:52pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The anger about the Kavanagh Kangaroo Kourt is real and will drive extra beatings than were already in store for the Democrats. Remember I predicted a red wave in May.
That red wave just got ten feet higher!

The Democrats just marginalized their party for a generation.
250   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 4, 1:11pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Official: Heitkamp is out of the Race for ND Senate. Vows to vote "No" on Kavanaugh.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1047914985341558785
251   Evan F.   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 1:22pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Official: Heitkamp is out of the Race for ND Senate. Vows to vote "No" on Kavanaugh.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1047914985341558785

Heitkamp has been trailing Cramer since like May. The Kavanaugh hearings may have moved the needle infinitesimally but she's been in an uphill battle for at least 2 months before Kavanaugh was even announced.

In all likelihood she knows she's toast and is just voting her conscience.
252   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 1:31pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Official: Heitkamp is out of the Race for ND Senate. Vows to vote "No" on Kavanaugh.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1047914985341558785


Just like that, ND got a GOP senator in November.
253   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 3:31pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
Just like that, ND got a GOP senator in November.


She was screwed no matter how she voted. Vote 'yes' and lose her base. Lose her base, guaranteed to lose the election.

Vote 'no', she keeps her base but will probably lose the election anyway. Poll show that 50% of Likely Voters in ND support Kavanaugh.
254   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 3:58pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Planned Parenthood Action Tweet threatening Democrats:

https://twitter.com/PPact/status/1047857373514223616
255   curious2   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 4, 4:31pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Democrats' 2018 "Better Deal" leaves a lot of room for improvement. It seems mainly about adding government programs.

For example, to address absurdly high medical costs, "Prescription drugs that meet a test for an unconscionable price increase will be subject to new investigative and enforcement action by a new “price gouging” enforcer." Nevermind the already absurdly high baseline, and the routine increases: only an "unconscionable" increase will trigger review. And forget about market competition. Repealing the Rx requirement and import restrictions, so that people can shop around and buy what they want from wherever they want, would reduce costs dramatically and quickly, but that is not part of the deal.

I don't see huge numbers of people rallying around creating new government departments. The game plan seems to be primarily TDS, opposing the President and all of his works. That didn't work in 2016, so it seems unlikely to do better in 2018 when he isn't even on the ballot.

I would love to be proven wrong about this, because I do think divided government produces better judicial appointments, and for that reason I would like to see Democrats regain the Senate. I just don't see it happening with the current "deal".
256   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 5:00pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

MockingbirdKiller says
She was screwed no matter how she voted. Vote 'yes' and lose her base. Lose her base, guaranteed to lose the election.

Vote 'no', she keeps her base but will probably lose the election anyway. Poll show that 50% of Likely Voters in ND support Kavanaugh.


True. Red State Democrats should really learn a lesson from Manchin (who will probably end up switching parties anyway).
257   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 4, 5:01pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

curious2 says
I don't see huge numbers of people rallying around creating new government departments.


What else do Democrats offer besides more Government programs mired by corruption and inefficiency?
260   MisterLearnToCode   ignore (4)   2018 Oct 10, 1:29pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Only Progressive Activists, 8% of population, think Free Speech isn't an issue. Only Traditional Liberals (11%) and Progressive Activists (8%) think Hate Speech is more of an issue than Free Speech. Ignore the loud minority.



https://pjmedia.com/trending/80-percent-of-americans-oppose-political-correctness-study-finds/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
261   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 10, 4:30pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag        

https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/410575-poll-dems-lead-gop-by-13-points-on-generic-congressional-ballot

Democrats hold a 13-point lead over Republicans among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot
262   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 10, 4:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

That same very biased CNN poll said that 50% of the same people thought the GOP would retain the majority in the House.
264   anonymous   ignore (null)   2018 Oct 10, 5:15pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

haha, that's great
265   Hugolas_Madurez   ignore (5)   2018 Oct 10, 5:42pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Democrats hold a 13-point lead over Republicans among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot


Good. News like this usually lead to less turnout on the "winning" side.
266   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 10, 5:45pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

DASKAA says
Good. News like this usually lead to less turnout on the "winning" side.


Maybe. Dems seem pretty energized this time around. Predicting turnout is very difficult, however, so you could be right.
267   CBOEtrader   ignore (5)   2018 Oct 10, 5:48pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/410575-poll-dems-lead-gop-by-13-points-on-generic-congressional-ballot

Democrats hold a 13-point lead over Republicans among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot


Oh also, HRC holds a 13 point advantage over Trump. https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html
268   CBOEtrader   ignore (5)   2018 Oct 10, 5:50pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

"The ABC News poll was conducted October 20-22 and includes 874 likely voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."

Ok, so for anyone paying attention. A 12 point lead w a 3.5 % margin of error should almost NEVER result in a Trump victory.

Tell us again about those reliable polls?
269   TrumpingTits   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 10, 7:31pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

CBOEtrader says
"The ABC News poll was conducted October 20-22 and includes 874 likely voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."


Yeah. Likely voters asked totally unlikely questions regarding the real world.
270   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 10, 7:45pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

What I’m seeing is this. people who’ve sidelined themselves from politics or voting for years or even decades because they don’t believe in the process are having a change of heart. They’re seeing things happen that could have never happened when one of the trained apes who usually run the world were in charge. They see that the Democrats are completely deranged and hostile to regular Americans. They deeply mistrust these Leftists and are ready to cast a vote they haven’t used in years to keep the idiots from getting back in power.
I’m predicting a MUCH larger Republican turnout than anyone expects. And I’m predicting a smaller Dem turnout than expected. It’ll be a bloodbath.
271   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 10, 7:50pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TrumpingTits says
CBOEtrader says
"The ABC News poll was conducted October 20-22 and includes 874 likely voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."


Yeah. Likely voters asked totally unlikely questions regarding the real world.


Was the election on October 22nd?
272   marcus   ignore (7)   2018 Oct 10, 9:38pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Democrats will take control of the house, but probably not enough of a blue wave for them to take the senate.

But I am praying that they do, and I hardly ever pray.
273   Patrick   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 10, 9:59pm   ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I'm betting Democrats lose even more seats. Not certain, just a feeling.
274   CBOEtrader   ignore (5)   2018 Oct 11, 4:43am   ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
I'm betting Democrats lose even more seats. Not certain, just a feeling.


Yup. Only 3 times in history has the party w newly elected potus gained seats. Midterms lining up to be as historical as 2016 epection.

MSM ignores traditions and attacked trump from day 1. This backfired enormously since Trump circumvented then via twitter and rallies. Whatever negative influence the MSM originally had has turned on them as more red pilled Americans support trump than ever.

Oddly enough it is the left constantly attacking, constantly smearing, constantly oppressing any wrongthinkers that has become Trump's biggest asset.
275   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Oct 11, 6:28am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I’m just wondering what the next step will be for Democrats once the bloodbath of Midterms is over? Will they accept that America hates their stance on practically everything and make some changes? Or will they double down, increase the hate, and get even more radical?
I’m fearing that it will be the latter option. They aren’t sane.
276   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 11, 7:43am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
I’m just wondering what the next step will be for Democrats once the bloodbath of Midterms is over? Will they accept that America hates their stance on practically everything and make some changes? Or will they double down, increase the hate, and get even more radical?
I’m fearing that it will be the latter option. They aren’t sane.


I would like to see the sane elements left in the Democrat Party break off and form a new Labor Party. Imagine a Party that is pro worker by curtailing illegal immigration, tariffs on low wage high pollution imports, and supporting private sector unions. May even pull in some Trump supporters and even Trump himself.
278   d6rB   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 11, 7:58am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
I'm betting Democrats lose even more seats. Not certain, just a feeling

I frankly can't make up my mind on this. R's will hold Senate for sure, may be even gain a seat or two, but House is extremely unpredictable. My prediction is +/- same situation as now.
280   OccasionalCortex   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 11, 10:30am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
I'm betting Democrats lose even more seats. Not certain, just a feeling.


You and me both. Especially in the Senate. I think 4 - 8 seats there will not be Dem incumbents returning in the next Congress. With Kavanaugh, they screwed & tattooed their Red State Dems for sure.

House...I think that the Dems' NET election gains will be a wash at best. Or if they do see gains, the amount of lost seats will still prevent them from taking it.

I plan on working from home on Nov 7. I work in downtown Oakland and don't want to be targeted by the Mob of the Vicious Losers that will be sure to 'spontaneously' form.

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