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Southern California home sales plunge 20% in December to the lowest pace in 11 years


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2019 Jan 30, 12:46pm   5,006 views  58 comments

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Home sales in the region fell 20.3 percent year over year in December, according to CoreLogic. That is the lowest December sales pace since 2007.

From November to December, sales of new and existing houses and condominiums in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties dropped 8.2 percent.

Sales usually rise in Southern California between November and December, with an average increase of around 12 percent, so this was clearly a huge aberration.

•The housing pain persists in Southern California, as higher costs weigh heavily on potential buyers. Home sales in the region fell 20.3 percent year over year in December, according to CoreLogic. That is the lowest December sales pace since 2007.

•From November to December, sales of new and existing houses and condominiums in the area dropped 8.2 percent in December.

•Sales usually rise in Southern California between November and December, with average increase of around 12 percent, so this was clearly a huge aberration.

"Last month's sharp drop in home sales stands out in several ways," said Andrew LePage, a CoreLogic analyst, noting that it was the slowest pace in 11 years and the largest decline for any month in more than eight years. "This drop in activity reflects a variety of factors. Mortgage rates hit a 2018 high in November, affecting December closings, and stock-market volatility created an additional headwind in high-end markets. Meanwhile, some would-be buyers remain priced out or unwilling to buy amid concerns that prices have overshot a sustainable level."

Sales of newly built homes fared particularly badly, down more than 50 percent from their average over the last 30 years. Much of that is because builders are still building far fewer homes since the housing crash, and part is because prices for newly built homes continue to soar.

"Half of America can only afford a $230,000 mortgage, and the builders in good locations just can't get down to anywhere near that," said John Burns, CEO of California-based John Burns Real Estate Consulting. "Eleven of the top 19 builders, their average sales price is above 400 grand."

More: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/30/southern-california-home-sales-plunge-20percent-in-december-lowest-pace-in-11-years.html

If you go back and look what happened not so long ago, it is interesting to see the same type of headlines.

Type in SoCal Housing in the search tab on here.

#SoCal #Housing

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50   GNL   2019 Mar 13, 8:22pm  

Kakistocracy says
California housing seen cooling further going into 2020: UCLA forecast

•While job growth and the California economy remain strong, weakness is apparent in the state's housing market and it is likely to cool further going into 2020, says the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast.

•The housing slowdown could put a damper on Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom's plans to step up the pace of new homes built to help ease the state's housing shortage.

•The director of the forecast says home prices are falling in many major markets of the Golden State, calling the decline "widespread and substantial."

While job growth and the California economy remain strong, weakness is apparent in the state's housing market and it is likely to cool further going into 2020, according to the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast, released Wednesday.

"The housing markets are softening in California, and it's not just the tony neighborhoods of San Francisco, Silicon Valley and West LA," said Jerry ...

Did I read this wrong? It says less housing will be built. How does that help anything other than higher prices?
51   AD   2019 Mar 13, 9:34pm  

Zillow now shows San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego all as neutral markets (i.e., neither buy or sellers market).
52   krc   2019 Mar 13, 9:46pm  

As IWOG would say - get ready to buy. I think a lot of his argument was that - yes - there will be fluctuations in the pricing of US real estate. But, when you look at the global market, the US is undervalued and has been so for decades. That will continue. Just to give some perspective here:

https://moneyinc.com/the-20-most-expensive-cities-to-buy-a-home-in-the-world/

And, yes, foreigners buying real estate does have an impact to pricing. And, yes, they may stop for a while, but when you look for asset purchase deals - the US still a bargain.

I do miss IWOG. I think his point on the real estate bears on this board would be "a broke clock is right twice a day." Of course there will be a pull back. :)
53   MrMagic   2019 Mar 13, 9:47pm  

krc says
I do miss IWOG.


He has an office in Concord. Go over and visit him and have lunch.
54   anonymous   2019 Mar 20, 5:08am  

March 2019 Housing Market Reports

Orange County, March 2019

Irvine, California, March 2019

Los Angeles County, March 2019

San Diego County, March 2019

San Jose Metro, March 2019

San Francisco Metro, March 2019

Riverside County, March 2019

San Bernardino, March 2019

Ventura County, March 2019

You can access a link to each specific report here: http://ochousingnews.com/march-2019-housing-market-reports/
55   RC2006   2019 Mar 20, 11:41am  

Wish you could see valuations over google maps, to see price changes on more local level. Are declines more in shitty areas?
56   AD   2019 Mar 20, 11:55am  

RC2006 says
Wish you could see valuations over google maps, to see price changes on more local level. Are declines more in shitty areas?


I think the best you could do is type in zip code at https://www.zillow.com/los-angeles-ca/home-values/

Also check Zillow Research such as https://www.zillow.com/research/local-market-reports/

https://www.zillow.com/research/data/
57   AD   2019 Mar 20, 12:06pm  

RC2006 says
Are declines more in shitty areas?


Please define "shitty areas" in terms of demographics, test scores at local public schools, amount of people living under one household roof, etc.
58   anonymous   2019 Mar 31, 4:49am  

This week ATTOM Data Solutions released its Q1 2019 U.S. Home Affordability Index, which shows that median-priced homes were not affordable for average wage earners in the first quarter of 2019 in 71 percent of the U.S. housing markets.

Of the 473 U.S. counties included in the analysis, 335 (71 percent) were not affordable for average wage earners. Among those, was Orange County, California, where the annual income needed to buy was $184,022 which was well above the $62,478 average annual wage there. In Orange County, an average wage earner would need to spend 82.5 percent of his or her income to buy a median-priced home in the first quarter of 2019.

Here are the top 10 counties where the greatest percent of annualized wages was needed to buy a home in Q1 2019:



https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/figuresfriday/top-10-counties-with-the-worst-home-affordability/

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