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Is it time for me to move my 401k to safety stocks?

By rocketjoe79 following x   2019 Jun 13, 2:00pm 582 views   23 comments   watch   nsfw   quote     share    


PMI is averaging down last 6 mos:
https://ycharts.com/indicators/purchasing_managers_index

Morgan Stanley doom and gloom:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/13/a-morgan-stanley-reading-on-the-economy-collapses-by-the-most-ever.html

I can wait it out for a few months and buy back in later?
2   EBGuy   ignore (0)   2019 Jun 13, 4:22pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Heraclitusstudent says
NAC!

I still can't bring myself to do it. With the amount I lose in the market, you'd think I wouldn't fear loss of principal. How much have you lost (percentage wise with NAC?)
3   Quigley   ignore (0)   2019 Jun 13, 4:25pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

We are due for a dip, but if a deal emerges with China soon, expect to miss the big gains if you cash out now!
4   Booger   ignore (3)   2019 Jun 13, 4:29pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

If I could time the market, I'd be retired and living in Caligulan splendor by now.
5   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2019 Jun 13, 4:44pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

EBGuy says
With the amount I lose in the market, you'd think I wouldn't fear loss of principal. How much have you lost (percentage wise with NAC?)

I was joking.
I have only a fraction in NAC. I added to it with time.
The thing with NAC is its leverage fell when short rates were climbing. Its yield will go up when short rates fall. Its price will go up when long rates fall.
So?
Note a 401K removes municipal bonds main advantage: tax free return.
6   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2019 Jun 13, 4:46pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
but if a deal emerges with China soon, expect to miss the big gains if you cash out now!


We already know the deal: short term agreement on agriculture and commodity widgets. Mid to long term ugly divorce on tech.
This is gonna be painful.
7   EBGuy   ignore (0)   2019 Jun 13, 4:47pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Heraclitusstudent says
Note a 401K removes municipal bonds main advantage: tax free return.

Yeah, I missed that part of the joke (whoosh!)
9   Patrick   ignore (1)   2019 Jun 13, 4:58pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

It is very hard to time markets correctly.

Better to just go with fundamentals, like Warren Buffett does. If it's a good stock, just hold.
10   OccasionalCortex   ignore (3)   2019 Jun 13, 5:29pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Safety stocks? Are there really such a thing? In a very static economy, perhaps.
11   BayArea   ignore (1)   2019 Jun 14, 7:43am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Attempting to time the market is silly.

The tried and true method is buying fundamentally sound stocks and etfs and going long. It’s the only way your average investor comes out on top in the stock market.
12   Quigley   ignore (0)   2019 Jun 14, 7:48am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

If you’re not an investing whiz, and it’s a 401k you’re talking about, just keep it in blue chips and let it ride. That is, unless you’re about ready to retire and plan to withdraw the money within the next year.

Historically, every single stock market crash has been followed by at least an 80-90% recovery in the following year. And two years later you’re above water again. So even if the absolute worst happens, you’ll be fine.
13   rocketjoe79   ignore (0)   2019 Jun 14, 9:58am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says
If you’re not an investing whiz, and it’s a 401k you’re talking about, just keep it in blue chips and let it ride. That is, unless you’re about ready to retire and plan to withdraw the money within the next year.


I am planning to retire next year. I'll take my pension as a lump sum and roll it into a 401K. Personal Capital, Vanguard and Fisher are all over me to get my money.

My insurance guy was telling me about the killing he's making selling annuities. He sold himself one (and pocketed the bonus for himself.) That's a sure bet I never want to consider them!!
14   mell   ignore (2)   2019 Jun 14, 10:05am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

DOW 30K still in the cards. Would not exit until you see broad layoffs. Trump economy is strong. Also agree w/ Patrick that the stocks you hold usually matter most.
15   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2019 Jun 14, 11:24am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Accidently neglected to opt out of my companies 401k in time, and lost $124 to Vanguard. In the process of getting it back I've confirmed all my worst fears about 401k and then some. How you people allow the IRS, the one organization who is ALWAYS sticking their hand in your pocket complete control of your retirement is beyond me.
16   clambo   ignore (4)   2019 Jun 14, 7:22pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Annuities come in several kinds.

Vanguard has them and can also get you an immediate annuity (trade money for income stream)

Once upon a time the tax code favored variable annuities, not so much so today.

I won't change my stock investments; I am betting on a long lifespan so I want capital appreciation.

I may lose my bet and regret not spending more starting now.
17   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2019 Jun 15, 12:52pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

rocketjoe79 says
Is it time for me to move my 401k to safety stocks?


Yes... In fact, money market funds have out performed equities for the last 1-1/2 years..

rocketjoe79 says
I can wait it out for a few months and buy back in later?


Wait it out, and after the crash, but back at a 40% discount.

Quigley says
Historically, every single stock market crash has been followed by at least an 80-90% recovery in the following year. And two years later you’re above water again. So even if the absolute worst happens, you’ll be fine.


You have a BAD memory of history... Here's the chart from the last recession. It took 6 YEARS just to get back to break even, before any growth could be had.



The NEXT one will be even worse (coming in less than a year).... Plan accordingly!!!
18   Okigan   ignore (0)   2019 Jun 15, 4:24pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

NAC vs VCAIX - which one is better/why?
20   BayArea   ignore (1)   2019 Jun 17, 8:27pm   ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I tend to think that the next big crash will happen when a Democrat is in office.
21   rocketjoe79   ignore (0)   2019 Jun 19, 9:11am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I believe Trump has staved off the inevitable for a while. However, USA growth in the long run should increase if his tarrif/renegotiated trade deal policies hold. Companies will pass on price increases and invest in USA manufacturing. It will take years, but Trump probably has six more, so companies should take note.

/rant on
Screw globalism. USA is still the world's bellwether economy, and I'll be dammed if the world is going to be Chinese speaking in 2100. We can stunt China's further growth now by reinvesting at home. Every penny spent buying stuff in China fuels their economy, a socialist, totalitarian state that works on groupthink, surveillance and control. Do we want them to become more of an economic power? I think not. We need to shut them down just like Reagan did to the Soviets. The future of over a billion people is at stake. We owe it to the Chinese people. And to Americans who were fed globalist bullhockey for eight years.
/rant off
22   Quigley   ignore (0)   2019 Jun 19, 9:23am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

MrMagic says
You have a BAD memory of history... Here's the chart from the last recession. It took 6 YEARS just to get back to break even, before any growth could be had.


Yah, from your chart it looks like the Great Recession kept the market from recovering to 80-90% for TWO years, not just one as is the norm.
23   clambo   ignore (4)   2019 Jun 19, 12:19pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The only people who lost a lot of money in stocks in 2008 1. Panicked and sold 2. Owned stocks like Wachovia rather than mutual funds.

At the time I was more concerned about further damage idiots like Pelosi and Obama could do to the economy.

Luckily very soon 2010 elections clipped their wings and they couldn’t raise taxes.

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