patrick.net

indc says

But if you see the progression of these events it will lead to no more can-kicking and hence de-dollarization.

No. It does not.indc says

You agree that interest rates will not go down, in a way that will also lead to de-dollarization.

Nope. The opposite. Demand for dollars will rise.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Nope. The opposite. Demand for dollars will rise.

You mean that if the 10 Year Treasury is paying at least 2% greater than the government-reported annual inflation such as PCE, then it will mean there will be more demand for "dollars" as in 10 Year Treasuries ?

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I remember from personal finance classes that you want to earn 4% plus annual inflation. So if annual inflation steadies at 3%, then you need to earn 7%.

This is based on premise you deduct around 3.5% a year as like an annuity and want your savings to appreciate at least at the rate of annual inflation.

Vanguard has a fund like Lifestrategy Conservative Growth Fund (60 bond/40 stocks) for this type of circumstance.

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AD says

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I remember from personal finance classes that you want to earn 4% plus annual inflation. So if annual inflation steadies at 3%, then you need to earn 7%.

This is based on premise you deduct around 3.5% a year as like an annuity and want your savings to appreciate at least at the rate of annual inflation.

Vanguard has a fund like Lifestrategy Conservative Growth Fund (60 bond/40 stocks) for this type of circumstance.

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10 year Total rate of return on it is 4.68%. CPI increase has been 2.65% over the last 10 years. Puts the inflation adjusted @ about 2%, and that is with the stock market at an all time high. Better have it in an IRA or it sucks even more after taxes.

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vscgx#performance-fees

There is no fire and forget strategy. No matter what the investment companies say, you gotta try to time the market.

If you would've dollar cost averaged either into or out of it, the total return figures are also lower.

Misc says

10 year Total rate of return on it is 4.68%. CPI increase has been 2.65% over the last 10 years. Puts the inflation adjusted about 2%, and that is with the stock market at an all time high. Better have it in an IRA or it sucks even more after taxes.

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vscgx#performance-fees

Yes, because its bonds are essentially indexed to Vanguard's Total Bond Market ETF (ticker: BND), which obviously got its ass kicked when the Fed Funds rate went from 0.25% to 5.5% in about 12 months because inflation spiked to around 9%.

And since it apply a bond ladder strategy, the bond fund should recover after getting over the shock of inflation jumping that fast.

I would go back 25 years with this one. But its meant to be a safe way such as for a senior citizen to invest.

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IMHO the best investment people could have made was refinancing their 30 year fixed rate mortgage at under a 3% rate.

That simple deal outperformed pretty much every money manager out there, and most people did that with a huge percentage of their net wealth. Timing is everything. That and being given the opportunity.

I can see why Gen Z is clutching at straws like crypto, they have very little to invest in. Lots to speculate on, but nothing to invest in. At least their student loan rates are at about 1.5%. Kids looking at college now...about 5.5% on their student loans with no increase in salary compared to previous generations.

So for those just starting out, I don't know how much of a difference between them and someone starting out in a BRICS country there is.

AD says

You mean that if the 10 Year Treasury is paying at least 2% greater than the government-reported annual inflation such as PCE, then it will mean there will be more demand for "dollars" as in 10 Year Treasuries ?

I mean when interest rates go up period. Not limited to just the interest paid on Ts.

Commercial bonds (not involving RE obviously), CDs, mortgages, car loans, state and local, etc. And interest paid on dollar denominated paper foreigners have amongst each other in the eurodollar arena especially.

The entire kitchen sink.

Why would India buy Venezuelan oil when Saudi oil is literally right next door?

Dollar Milkshake Theory gets a boost:



https://wolfstreet.com/2024/04/16/yen-drops-to-155-against-usd-currency-collapse-at-work-50-against-usd-since-2012-32-since-2021/

But...but the dollar is going to shit!