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No Bubble, My Bad :-(


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2006 Feb 15, 10:02am   19,353 views  89 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Bay Area Bubble Bloggers Admit Defeat, Throw in the Towel
Copyright © 2006 UnReality Times®. All Rights Reserved.
by Leslie Appleton-Young and David Lereah

The housing bubble blogosphere today was reeling from a shocking announcement made by an obscure but popular Bay Area Housing bubble blog, Patrick.net. The blog's overall tone is as bearish as any on the web ("SF Bay Area Housing Crash Continues" staunchly declares the site's link page).

Evidently, the site's main contributors have completely reversed course and now claim there is no housing bubble. "After so many months of denying the obvious, we had no choice but to call it quits and Face Reality," says Peter P, one of the blog's earliest threadmasters. "Agreed," says HARM, "it's painfully clear that we were dead wrong and housing is going to keep appreciating 15% a year forever, just like Gary Watts says it will."

The mood was mostly somber and contrite among the Patrick.net blogger gathering at the Marin Brewing Company in Larkspur, CA --a marked change from previous gatherings. "No matter how many risk-reward calculations I did, or how many times I crunched the numbers, I just plain old underestimated the power of 'it never goes down' and 'MIRAGE'," declared Randy H, one of the group's most talented market analysts. "Totally," agreed SQT, "Plus we completely ignored 'they're not making any more of it' and the lure of all those tax deductions."

Bloggers attitudes ranged from glum to confrontational. When asked to comment, Praetorian merely shrugged and began quoting G.K. Chesterton. By contrast, Surfer-X loudly encouraged the staff of UnReality Times to have sexual relations with farm animals. He then dipped his shoulder and spun Mr. Lereah around before storming out the door. "Don't take it personally", says Kurt S, "It's just 'X' blowing off a little steam. We're all a little disappointed, that's all."

Patrick Killelea, the site's founder, was not present and could only be reached by email. When asked to comment he wrote back, "Thanks, I'll post this to the links page!"

Of course, not everyone was upset. A few of the Patrick regulars, described as being moderately bullish, welcomed the news. "I think it's great," declared Jack. "Now I can start posting again about those Marin Positive Intangibles!" "It's wonderful news," agreed Mr. Right, "but it's too bad Marina Prime isn't here to share our glorious victory. This is really his payback for being banned and all. Oh, well, more free beer for us..."

"I guess there's nothing left to do except go out and get the biggest, nastiest neg-am loan on the planet and buy a stucco $hitbox before we're all priced out forever," mused HARM with obvious regret. "Imagine how much better off I'd be if I had bought when the price-rent multiple was only 35!".

#housing

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78   HARM   2006 Feb 16, 11:01am  

Tell him Michael Holliday says he has a bridge he’d like to sell him…and if he’s in Alaska, some snow too!

Are you referring to the Alaskan "Bridge to Nowhere"?

79   DinOR   2006 Feb 16, 11:54am  

TampaRentor,

Once these types of loans are no longer available?

There are two ways out of the "hood".

One is to have a great jump shot.

The other, is to sling crack.

I didn't have a jump shot, so I started slinging crack.

Giovani Ribisi in "Boiler Room"

80   OO   2006 Feb 16, 11:55am  

Patrick,

can we start a discussion on what to SHORT? Let's all make some money from this sucker. We need to act fast because some of these shares are starting to become difficult to borrow. Gotta get hold of the borrowed shares before the door closes.

Subprime lenders are definitely a prime target, credit card companies in fact are more juicy, because the subprime people don't carry their own loans on the balance (packaged off and sold as MBS), but the credit card companies are carrying UNSECURED loans which the borrowers will default on first when they are in stress! Builders like TOL, CTX are already coming down, any more room for shorting the way down? Profund Short Real Estate is good, or you can short M Reits yourself.

We have a group of smart people here, let's all make some dough while this baby blows up in the idiots' face.

81   Peter P   2006 Feb 16, 12:21pm  

can we start a discussion on what to SHORT

Shorting? But Dow is on its way to 36,000!

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

82   Peter P   2006 Feb 16, 12:27pm  

New thread: Not investment advice!

83   HARM   2006 Feb 16, 2:49pm  

@PS,

Thanks for the lesson --I stand corrected.

84   Peter P   2006 Feb 17, 5:02am  

The Fed will raise interest rates to 13% but who cares, you might get a 3% loan from Canada or China. The price of a house is the monthly payment.

Huh? Are you suggesting that China will loan many to you at 3% instead of Uncle Sam at 13% because they are nice to you? Never.

85   Peter P   2006 Feb 17, 6:21pm  

SF Bubble blog lives!

Bubble blogs of the world, banzai!

86   Peter P   2006 Feb 17, 6:42pm  

SF Bubble, great blog!

87   brightc   2006 Feb 20, 6:25am  

How many houses have been sold with backstage deals like these:

http://tinyurl.com/r9ezs

It seems realtors are trying so hard to keep house prices from falling on transaction papers.

I suppose when I hear someone saying he's just bought a $1 million condo, what actually happened was the seller offered to pay 6 months of mortgage, 2 years of HOA fee, a free cruise to Finland, points and closing cost buyoffs, and a seller-financed, balloon interest-only mortgage. If you're a tough cookie, you can get the seller give out his left ball, too (if that's a he).

Add all that together, and you've got a bargain! No bubble after all.

88   surfer-x   2006 Feb 20, 2:49pm  

just posted to their "feedback" section

how about asking your piece of mother fucking shit real whore to lower their fucking commision? I mean afterall, most of you assholes have what, a high school education? Get limber asshole because you'll be taking in the ass soon.

I hope you get herpes from fucking the admin.

Asshole

89   brightc   2006 Feb 20, 3:20pm  

D.R. Horton's having a 30% off sale in Sacramento:

http://tinyurl.com/l4t82

Realtors don't need anything higher than a high school diploma to turn their heads sideway and announce "this is turning into a NORMAL market".

Is this market becoming normal as the various "teams" of Realtors are mouthing off? Maybe it should be topic of a new thread!

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