patrick.net

Well once again unemployment claims are up by 25,000 despite the endless series of
news reports claiming we are "recovering". Also the congress is going to add yet another six months to unemployment benefits which means they will now stretch for two and a half years which should not be necessary in a true "recovery".
The number of trustees sales in today's newpaper is also way up.
Five people I know who still had jobs have gotten lay off notices in the past week.
Everyone I know is getting poorer and not spending a dime that isn't absolutely necessary so I don't see where they keep getting the reports of mythical "consumer optimism".

If they didn't extend unemployment again, we'd have rioting in the streets. The only thing stopping us from seeing soup kitchen lines around the block like they saw during the Great Depression is that unemployment benefit extension. It's one social safety net that's working at the moment. It's working to keep the peace.

Construction, we always need construction. Many large companies are going to prepare for economic recovery, and will start building again, they’ve slashed budgets, things have started stabilizing (stabilizing up/down, the trend line for whatever they do can be predicted).

Many, if not all, large and small small companies lease (rent) their facilities. They dont do construction. Its the various local commercial Reits that have done the construction in the hopes of leasing out. But as you can see in SV we have 20% vacancy rate, highest in 20 years with prices falling on current inventory. Cheaper to rent than to make your own.

thomas.wong1986 says

Many, if not all, large and small small companies lease (rent) their facilities. They dont do construction. Its the various local commercial Reits that have done the construction in the hopes of leasing out. But as you can see in SV we have 20% vacancy rate, highest in 20 years with prices falling on current inventory. Cheaper to rent than to make your own.

That is complete BS. You lease office space, you build factories. My company is spending ~60MM this year alone on construction, and it's small and privately owned..

tatupu70 says

That is complete BS. You lease office space, you build factories. My company is spending ~60MM this year alone on construction, and it’s small and privately owned..

Nada! many former manufacturing sites around silicon valley were infact converted into office space. In both cases they were operating leases where title never passed..rentals. Typically ran at 5 year renewals. Some who actually purchased land/building over the years and gone over their heads in costs have gone under. I never seen anyone company want to commit long term to any location. There is a greater need to be flexiable and have a way out when downturns happen and take advantage of cheaper rates.
Cisco from East Palo Alto to Santa Clara to Milpitas... they all move eventually.

Its much cheaper to have a Contract Mfg (Solectron, Flextronics) handle production which is the case with many in the valley. You dont deal with Mfg equip depreciation, high property tax, higher staffing costs, not to mention all the other costs with owning facilities. This has been going on for 20-30 years now.

Construction isn't just about building a building. It's about renovating your restaurant. It's about adding space into a place you're currently in. What retailer is going to shut down during boom times to build, needing to pay higher costs for building due to demand and lose sales when things are going gang busters? They wait for a lull in the economy then build out, unless they absolutely have to build out. Like a business just takes off and not expanding will cost them far more than waiting.

Does Macy's make the renovations at Valley Fair or does Westfield Group?

thomas.wong1986 says

Does Macy’s make the renovations at Valley Fair or does Westfield Group?

Does Dupont lease their chemical plant?

Is the westfield group going to make renovations when they're fully rented out, or when there is slack time?

Macys would be in charge of renovating internally for sure, and would they shut down their stores during the christmas rush to do this? No. How about a good strong year? no...