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Bubble modeling?


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2006 May 2, 2:57pm   19,055 views  251 comments

by totoro   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Hello,

Not sure if this has been discussed here or not, but I recently came across the following report from HBSC Global Research. It’s a pretty comprehensive analysis of the US housing market based on a model called HomePulse, which they developed and have made publicly available. I've linked the spreadsheet below also. There is so much data, buttons and knobs to play with that I haven't been able to even scratch the surface on it. I think there are some sharp minds on this forum - it would be interesting to see some discussion of this work.

HBSC Report (PDF, large)

HomePulse model (Excel)

#housing

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85   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:37am  

"Don’t be worried about used European cars, depending on the year."

I don't know, I've heard a lot of unhappy noise re the new beamers and MBs. The mid to late 90s seem to have the best word of mouth going for them.

Joe,

If you're looking for used vehicles, SQT says you may be able to get a 5 series for similar or less amount than a similar age 3 series.

86   astrid   2006 May 3, 5:38am  

Scott,

Maybe you can move to the Elysian fields of Tennessee :)

"Alas most new house “2 car” garages are really just 1.5 car garages."

Especially if they try parking a Suburban AND a HUMMER in them.

87   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:46am  

You forgot that you can also get a used 7 series for similar price to a 3 series.

Is a used 740iL/750iL any good in terms of reliability? What is a good vintage?

I always like to increase the average weight of my cars. :)

88   Peter P   2006 May 3, 5:46am  

Go diesel!

No good USED diesel with California emission yet. :(

89   Randy H   2006 May 3, 5:53am  

I know friends with an A6 and a Jetta who both have had problems; my g/f has a Passat and the interior lining has fallen out (but no other problems).

My wife drives an '04 TT Roadster 3.2 Quattro with DSG. She hasn't had any problems yet, but this is our first Audi. I drive an old reliable 1998 BMW 328i which has about 120K on it and has never had any major failures. I also have a quite old beast (from before they were called SUVs) which I desperately want to get rid of, but not until I find a workable alternative that costs less than $80 per tank to operate.

90   DinOR   2006 May 3, 6:05am  

I can't believe with as many Californians as there are on this blog (and the price of gas these days) no one has mentioned the Chrysler Sebring Convertible. O.K now everyone give out a collective groan. Oh, ughhh. They are serious fun! We've had 2 and I'm thinking about getting one again just for the summer. 2.7L engine (yes they've worked out the bugs) about 220 HP, simple but decent interiors and excellent gas mileage! The only problem that I can see is that w/all soft tops, they are too noisy to use as a daily commuter car. Other than that would you worry all that much where you parked a car you paid 8K for?

91   astrid   2006 May 3, 6:07am  

(groan)

I'd go for a MINI Cooper convertible or an S2000 or a RX-8 convertible, and damn the absence of trunk space!

92   Peter P   2006 May 3, 6:12am  

I can’t believe with as many Californians as there are on this blog (and the price of gas these days) no one has mentioned the Chrysler Sebring Convertible.

I feel safer in a non-convertible...

93   astrid   2006 May 3, 6:12am  

"I’m really bad at selling stuff. For me 3 is ideal — street car, race car, tow vehicle. 5 is too many. I’m still trying to convince my g/f to sell her Passat and buy my M3"

If M3 is not the race car, what is?

94   astrid   2006 May 3, 6:13am  

Peter P,

You're missing out on a major California intangible TM! Idiots in NYC and DC buy convertibles, and then drive with the top up for 85% of the time.

95   astrid   2006 May 3, 6:16am  

SQT,

Maybe you can persuade him into a G350 coupe. They're a bit more practical and still have good performance.

96   Peter P   2006 May 3, 6:19am  

Sacto’s too hot most of the time for a convertable, and I hate the way they look when they start getting old and ratty. I’ll stick with a hard-top.

Get a hard-top convertible. Crossfire, Volvo C50, ...

97   Peter P   2006 May 3, 6:32am  

Isn’t auto racing a waste of energy?

Are you asking me? :)

98   astrid   2006 May 3, 6:35am  

Is vacation traveling? Or living more than walking/biking distance of work?

We can all live like subsistance farmers, but we don't. Is that all waste?

99   astrid   2006 May 3, 7:27am  

ps,

Funny how that works.

Here's the general opinion from I've read:

Cutco and most other American brands are not worth owning

Wusthoffs and Henckels (I guess Sabatiers are beyond the pale) are *okay* but a bit hefty for regular use and priced high for their quality.

ceramic knives are useful for cutting fruits and vegetables where acidity is a concern. However, they're rather delicate and they may chip with hard use. They can maintain their edge almost indefinitely but take care not to drop them or use them to hack at bones.

Victorinoxs have a surprising following amongst chefs, especially for smaller utility knives. (yay!)

MACs are generally considered pretty good. Their highest end offering is actually not considered as good, because they're too big and heavy for most people. They're actually at a slightly lower price point compared to high end Germans.

Japanese blades are fancy and the realm of knife nerds - if you want to investigate, go to this forum: http://www.knifeforums.com/ubbthreads/postlist.php?Cat=&Board=Kitchen

100   astrid   2006 May 3, 7:35am  

1.99% for one month?

101   Peter P   2006 May 3, 7:40am  

Why the middle-aged oriental housewives in Cupertino need 270 HP is beyond me, but there seem to be a lot of them wandering around in Avalons.

Power is always good.

102   LILLL   2006 May 3, 7:45am  

To BA or not to BA
Thanks for the link. So the USD is overvalued? WTF?

103   Peter P   2006 May 3, 7:48am  

You need power to get away from the bad drivers.

Exactly. I hate flooring the throttle. I like to touch it gently and feel the acceleration.

104   DinOR   2006 May 3, 7:51am  

newsfreak,

Oh what the heck!? Why not have fun with those guys? Lead 'em along and then ask them if they'd heard Ameriquest is laying off another 3,800 mort. brokers!

105   Peter P   2006 May 3, 7:52am  

Exactly, so long as you are good, and do not offend the Law Man.

Remember, the Law Man is your friend.

106   StuckInBA   2006 May 3, 7:55am  

newsfreak Says:
HAHAHAHA

Now that's a lot of money.

107   LILLL   2006 May 3, 8:02am  

How about
Bubble Friction
Then it will pop!

108   LILLL   2006 May 3, 8:13am  

Let's hope not.

109   DinOR   2006 May 3, 8:27am  

newsfreak,

No! Do not round the lay-off figure up! In order to have credibility over the phone we MUST be 100% factual at ALL times! The guy could go home or on the internet and find the 3,800 figure and say to him/herself "Huh, that lady don't know what the hell she's talking about!" Why give them the satisfaction? Let the embellishment be their method. As *bubbleheads* we must have our facts straight. Bulls, they can totally make it up as they go along, but you and I? No no.

110   Peter P   2006 May 3, 8:44am  

They ARE the bad drivers, who are they getting away from?

The good drivers.

111   requiem   2006 May 3, 8:46am  

They ARE the bad drivers, who are they getting away from?

The gun owner whose dog they ran over? (It takes time to screw on a suppressor!)

112   Randy H   2006 May 3, 8:49am  

TBAONTBA, Scott,

Oh that’s frightening… won’t that just drive investment out of the US?

A weaker dollar will drive a lot of investment out of the US. Again, this might not necessarily be a bad thing. "Hot" investment will leave fairly quickly, but much investment is tied up in longer term assets which aren't liquid or easily divested.

The flight of more liquid capital would have the benefit of reducing volatility and the detriment of threatening a credit crunch. This is why the G8 are trying to prevent a sharp correction. Some parts of the global economy react very quickly -- sometimes within hours or minutes in today's capital market system -- and other parts take years to rebalance. Exports an imports are slow to shift because companies have to build plants, close others, cancel or renegotiate long-term shipping contracts, build new shipping capacity, and so on.

Then there are offsetting good/bad things that happen. If the USD stays low long enough for exports to recover, then long-term investment will be attracted to the US despite low rates and FX because of the trade profit potential. Similarly, weaker USDs implies lower interest rates and therefore implies higher inflation. But, as the USD sinks it loses appeal as a reserve currency status, driving foreign holdings out of petrodollars and into petroeuros probably. Petrodollars cause inflation in the US so less of those helps offset low-rate induced inflation. It also increases liquidity without printing money because less USDs are sitting in banks in OPEC countries' central banks.

113   Peter P   2006 May 3, 8:51am  

Have you guys checked out this site?

www.patrick.net

Is it a housing bull site or is it a cars/knives site?

114   Peter P   2006 May 3, 8:53am  

The gun owner whose dog they ran over? (It takes time to screw on a suppressor!)

I thought it is illegal to have suppressors.

115   Randy H   2006 May 3, 8:56am  

If you look at the rents for specific communities you can see massive sloppiness. Take Mill Valley, for example: /cache/MillValley0.html

This is consistent with what we should expect as the mass-psychology turns: uncertainty. Pretty much the same with houses. I'm seeing prices all over the place (in southern Marin), without a lot of rhyme or reason to them. Some are clearly way too high given reasonable comps, and others actually seem too low given some recent comp sales. Even the low stuff sits a few weeks (take "low" with a grain of salt, I mean "relatively" low) before selling.

116   Peter P   2006 May 3, 9:01am  

Look at this Palo Alto condo:

http://www.craigslist.org/pen/apa/157108063.html

Is this need-based pricing or what?

117   requiem   2006 May 3, 9:02am  

I thought it is illegal to have suppressors.

I imagine that squeezing off a few shots at a retreating Avalon is also frowned upon.

(According to wikipedia, the regulations vary by state. ISTR hearing that some scandinavian countries actually require them, BICBW.)

118   Randy H   2006 May 3, 9:04am  

By the way, the FT today had an editorial research piece on US incomes that was quite telling (and depressing). We've had a lot of arguments here about whether wages were rising or falling.

Seems they are doing both. Median wages have been flat since about 1999/2000, but average wages have risen dramatically. In fact, median wages have been flat since 1973 with the exception of a few years in the mid-late 90s. Since 2001 median wages have actually been falling. Meanwhile, since 2001 average wages have been skyrocketing.

This is a huge income concentration effect. People in the top 5% of earners are seeing rapidly inflating wages. These are the people who come by here and Troll from time-to-time, bragging about their $350K base salaries and $250K bonuses. These people exist in at least enough numbers to have caused the average to rise so rapidly. It is also important to note that the top 0.1% of earners hasn't changed much (the super rich). It really is people earning about $400K per year family incomes that are driving this trend.

This also means that RE prices are not sustainable. They just aren't affordable and the top 5% aren't going to buy all the homes.

119   requiem   2006 May 3, 9:11am  

That looks like a standard "roommate" layout. Cut at least 3 kilodollars from the price and I might actually consider it. (Use the second bedroom as an office, library, or guest room.)

Or not... my current housing search is aimed around San Francisco/South City.

120   requiem   2006 May 3, 9:13am  

BTW, I'm getting delivery errors from patrick.net (attempt to deliver to "foo@foo.com"). I think someone else mentioned this as well. Any ideas on why this might be?

121   surfer-x   2006 May 3, 9:13am  

Have you guys seen this site

patrick.net ?

It is a gigantic troll magnet. I can't decide if it is a food site or a car site or a troll site.

Mariana is prime, especially with shitake.

122   Peter P   2006 May 3, 9:18am  

That looks like a standard “roommate” layout. Cut at least 3 kilodollars from the price and I might actually consider it. (Use the second bedroom as an office, library, or guest room.)

I think it should not be more than 3500 a month. 5000 is a lot of money to be "thrown away". :)

Master bedroom should not be of the same size as the other bedroom.

123   Peter P   2006 May 3, 9:19am  

I hate roommate layouts!

124   Randy H   2006 May 3, 9:20am  

I know quite a few investment banker types, and they can generally hope to make at least $250K per year on the low end after they put in their years as analysts and get their MBAs. Some of these folks have base salaries of between $200K-$300K and then they can make that amount again in bonus in a good year.

Also people in certain operational finance careers can earn very high salaries right now, which are increasing rapidly as an effect of a shortage of talent. These jobs aren't easily offshored and the conveyor belt of new talent from the Big 4 has broken down so folks with CPAs and Big 8/6/4 public acctg backgrounds can make quite an impressive salary.

Tech and engineering salaries, on the other hand, have gone nowhere but sideways or down. Some tech management roles are doing well, but many of the super high paying jobs (like $400K/yr CTOs) are in the Northeast these days. In the BA the same job will pay maybe $150-200K with lots of restricted stock as lottery compensation. (Meanwhile the IB living next door who's 15 years younger and has less than half the raw intelligence or profit contribution potential earns triple that).

These are interesting times.

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