patrick.net

Randy,

I wish google could have more variety of ads. Still, I suppose it's good we're not getting the breast enhancement, she-male, and herbal V ads...

DinOR & Conor,

HFs probably deserve at least some of the complaints lodged against them. They do increase volatility, which they then exploit. They also know how to amplify reflectivity in ways that can move markets.

All that said, HFs are still relatively short-term goal beasts. Even the big macro HFs may follow a very long-term macro model, but they are seeking to maximize shorter-term profit goals within that context.

I think what HFs do, in this regard, is the same thing that professional traders have always done: punish retail speculators. It's just that HFs have figured out how to extract profits from market volatility in a very efficient and often (semi)automated manner. Long-term retail investors or institutional funds really can ignore the day-to-day musings of HFs.

This is why CEOs of concerns like mining companies or large banks get agitated by HFs when they start to really impact their strategic business decisions. HFs love to pressure management and punish "bad" decisions, which means decisions that reduce their returns. But again, I'm not convinced that this isn't what shareholders should be doing anyway; maybe HFs are just the way it's getting done.

Does HF volatility raise the stakes or increase the risk of catastrophe? This is probably a religious debate centering around what one thinks the purpose and domain of the market is. Me, being that I operate from a free-market bias with considerate strategic regulation, I believe that HFs are just part of the market, and if volatility didn't come from them it would rear its head elsewhere, perhaps in a less controlled and even more catastrophic manner.

Randy H,

It wasn't that long ago that CALPERS was pressuring for changes at Disney. I feel it is their right to do so as they have a fiduciary responsibility to the state workers. I have no problem there. Where I can see it getting sticky is when HF's swoop in and pluck the dividend then turn around and dump it en masse after payable date. Utilities are typically appropriate for older investors seeking a reasonable return on their investment, not looking to get churned in the volatility. Then the stock price starts to ramp up until the final day of being a "shareholder of record" and then we start the whole process all over again. It just seems so exaggerated these days?

Maybe I should change that to "Utilities WERE typically appropriate"

Harm-
I typed this one from the paper, but here's the entirety from their site:
tinyurl.com/zxpk7

SFWoman,

I may have to revise my support of stripmalls as to not agree with Robert Cote. I don't think stripmalls are necessarily a good thing. They've just been in the landscape for so long that many of them have accumulated interesting shops and restaurants. The availability of parking is a major plus. Parking in strip malls is a lot easier than trying to find a parking space in the Emeryville IKEA on Saturday.

Anyways, that garage certainly doesn't look like it could fit two cars.

Of course, none of this would happen if we had a gold standard

Until a nice big gold asteroid strikes the earth...

Money is just a mind game to get people to give you stuff or do stuff for you. The Fed's game the past 5 years has been to torture savers to spend their cash to put people to work.

Imagine if the hypothetical gold asteroid hit the earth and everyone went and mined 1,000 ounces of gold. If everyone felt wealthy and stopped working, we'd have mass starvation.

With a fiat currency and taxes, the government can grab some of your loot every year, making you feel poorer and making you work. It sucks on tax day or when you fill up your gas tank, but at least everyone can eat.

It's a pretty weird society when you look at the big picture, but the net result isn't so bad.

I stand corrected:

2.

The number of times anyone has defended strip malls.

SFWoman,

GMAFB! Do they seriously think they can get $1.7M for a 750sqft dumper in Cow Hollow? And that "2-car" garage appears to be assuming that you define a "car" as a SMART-car.

For $1.7M you can actually buy a decent place in South Marin with a flat yard for cryin out loud.

One thing I have been doing to entertain myself while I stay home and watch Ava is to compare recently sold homes with their Zestimate.

Zillow is off by as much as +/- 20% but doesn't seem to have an extreme bias either direction.

At least in my neighborhood.

SFWoman,

Nice lsiting! Did you notice how they seem to photograph it with some kind of "fish eye" lens so the rooms look big enough to play tennis in?

Volley for serve!

FRIFY,

Except that this particular government is very good at taxing productive work and much less good at taxing unproductive work and assets. We have the whole thing ass backwards.

The solution to the astroid driven inflation is to turn gold back into lead, duh!

That place honestly doesn't look that bad, just really overpriced. I'd be happy to pick it up, for $60K, which is probably what it sold for 25 or 30 years ago.

Except that this particular government is very good at taxing productive work and much less good at taxing unproductive work and assets. We have the whole thing ass backwards.

Well, I'm definitely in favor of a more progressive tax structure. Capitalism appears inherently unstable - once you get enough loot, you and your decendents appear to have it made. Still, targeting assets is tricky - cap gains and dividend tax cuts are pretty good at getting $$$ back into the productive economy. Nixing Prop 13 would certainly help boot Great Aunt Wanda from her 1700 square foot house to a condo, increasing the overall productivity of the BA.

I wouldn't call it ass backward. I'll still take the US over any other country, including my native European nation...

The secret to the asteroid problem is to superheat it so it sinks to the earth's core to join the majority of the gold on this planet...

Randy H,

That is a 2200 sq ft, 3 bedroom, 3 bath house. In the Marina no less, which is, as we all know, prime.

That house is bigger and nicer than anyplace I have ever lived. I guess it is all a matter of perspective...

HARM,
I changed my handle because the old one, nomadtoons is the name of my site. I get all my business from there, so I figured it might be good to keep a low profile as far as my political ambitions go, being that I rarely mix business with pleasure.

Astrid,
What's funny is that sometimes I feel nostalgic for the old strip malls near my home when I was a kid. 1960's and 70's grocery stores, buzzing flourescent lights, those giant ceiling vents shaped like huge jet engines, worn linoleum floors with 50 layers of wax, etc. Alameda was like that a few years ago. An old boxy Safeway, Albertsons, and random shoe stores and stuff in an old mall complex. I liked it. Then they decided to revamp it, tear down the Safeway, and build this monster-size safeway that looks all ritzy and upscale inside. I actually find myself wanting to shop as quick as I can and get out of there. I get the same feeling going to some overpriced place like Andronico's.
If history serves us right, then there will be nothing left for the future to look back on. New stores are simple concrete shells that have a life of about 10-15 years before they get torn down and replaced with something bigger, fancier, and more audacious than the last. Strip malls aren't my favorite thing, but then again, I'm sure people at one point thought that main streets with small shops were ugly too.

Jimbo,

I stand corrected on the interior size; it is indeed 2250sqft.

Maybe that makes up of the bars on the windows and doors that seemingly are required in "prime" Marina.

LOL. For less than that price ($1.7M) you can get 2-for-1 in Mill Valley. And the rental will pay for your Fastrack and gas to drive 12 minutes to the Marina.

http://www.greathomes.org/property.asp?PropID=20615532&cat=1#

We have Edward Barnes and his 1950's IBM building- one of the first minumalist skyscrapers that was essentially an all-glass skyscraper to thank for starting the whole featureless architecture phase that's still going strong. Why architecture strayed away from the appearance of actual crafstmanship is a mystery to me.

SFWoman,

The "Bomber" on Mclaughlin Blvd is a B-17 Liberator (I believe). It was a landmark for years especially with advertisers as a reference. Now it's being disassembled and it looks like the gas station has gone out of business as well. It's almost solid auto dealers now. Oh and wall to wall strip malls.

Yeah, I agree that it is probably overpriced, but not as much as some seem to think. That is really an outstanding spot: one block from the Presidio and one block from Lombard. The lot alone is worth $1M.

The house is unexceptional, but perfectly nice in my book. In fact, there are probably thousands those tunnel entrance homes with two bedrooms over the garage in San Francisco. The Outer Sunset is full of them.

But I can't imagine paying $1.7M for one, I agree.

Kurt,

Thanks for the Marinij.com link. I guess calling it "IJ" is as obvious and automatic to you folks as calling the L.A. Times the "English-language La Opinion" is to me ;-) .

SFWoman,

With all due respect, the Finger Lakes region is in the middle of nowhere, and as you've noted, the winter heating bills are crazy high. And there aren't much in the way of jobs.

Besides, if making money was no object, I'll take one of DinOR's peso palaces for $150K and get !warm! salt water beach access :)

Besides, if making money was no object, I’ll take one of DinOR’s peso palaces for $150K and get !warm! salt water beach access :)

If making money were dropped as a requirement, I'd take Provence and gain access to some high culinary / low stress life.

Randy,

There's always New Zealand. Buy some land there and drive the locals even more crazy.

Owneroccupier, what's the most desireable rural/suburban area in NZ? I found this site and I'm drooling.

http://www.realenz.co.nz/

astrid,

My sister-in-law (in addition to selling Avon and Tupperware) is also a realtor in the P.I. We have looked at a number of homes in that area over the years and she explained that they never sell for anywhere near what they post them for on that web-site. Typically you can knock off at least half of the price just by being "in country". Since much of the mark up is the realtor's fee if you're family that gets discounted too. Our beach house is only a one floor bungalow a little bit further in (about 300 yds.) and we have about 10-12K into it. I guess the prices they post are just to see if there are any sun starved Scandanavians with deep pockets and trusting souls. My wife's aunt spends half of the year in Miami and the other half in Valencia. I'm told they consider it to be the "Baggio" of the Visayas b/c it is cooler at the higher elevations. You can see all the way to Cebu from her place. Pretty cool!

Oh and can you believe all of the "resorts" they have for sale on that site? I must admit some of them look quite cool but there is almost always something missing from the pictures. Paying customers! It seems every resort has the potential to become the next Cebu! Some of the Aussies have been able to make a go of it by doing scuba diving tours which is really cool fun but most of the "resorts" sit empty most of the year. Certainly during the rainy season (almost 6 months) which is kind of dumb when you think about it. Even though it pours in short bursts, there still are plenty of times during the day when it doesn't rain at all! I still love the rainy season.

DinOR,

I would never actually buy a place sight unseen, that would be specuvesting. I'm not much of a beach bunny so New Zealand or Oregon would be more my kind of place.

Your relatives sounds really cool. I think I'll just rent their beach place whenever I get a warm salt water fixation.

Max,

At least those have some trees in the background. I drove by Riverbank (just NE of Modesto) this weekend and it could have been Kansas. The parking lot of one shopping center was big enough to land a 747 in; I couldn't even make out the signs of the tiny shops on the horizon.

/Wondering what they used to paint the grass...

astrid,

Actually you would be quite welcome there! Their place is a good two hours south of Dumaguette. They did not get electricity until my wife was in high school so even today when they get visitors the whole barrio comes to a halt. I'm not kidding. Little kids need to be run off b/c they press their faces right up to the screens and windows to "get a peek" at the strangers. You just get used to it. The solitude you see pictured above pobably only lasted long enough to take the picture. You can't just go to the beach by yourself. It just isn't possible. If you're heading down there every child not yet of school age will be following you. The only solitude one gets in the P.I is showering and using the restroom. Pretending to be reading a book doesn't help a lick.

Max,

Granddaddy, the band. It used to have Laci Peterson and Chandra Levy, before they *disappeared*

Trees.

I grew up there, by the JC. It used to be a "tree city", for whatever that's worth. On my street, the trees on either side are tall enough to cover it so that in the summer the sunlight filters through the leaves. When you walk down the street, everything is green and cool. In the Fall, the leaves turn red and cover everything. Large crunchy maple-like leaves, the kind to rake into large piles and let the kids play in. A pine in the backyard is at least 50 feet tall, probably closer to 100. We didn't have to run the air in summer; the stone walls insulated very well.

Outside of the old neighborhoods, it's suburban hell. The houses are taller than the trees, and everything is some shade of terracotta. In the summer, the sun beats down on you, forcing you to run inside and cower by the air conditioner while you watch the lawn wither and die, and a drop of water on the cement will boil before your eyes.

I saw tear down anything built in the past 50 years, and turn it back into orchards and rice patties.

s/saw/say/

SF Woman wrote:

> Here is a dog of a house. It’s in SF, but yuck!
> Where I grew up this would be the garage behind
> the house, and that apartment over it would be
> rented for free, or almost free, to a young couple
> in grad school, given to the college age son to use,
> or the housekeeper would live in it.

The little ugly box in Cow Hollow sold for $875K in 1998, then sold for $1.265mm in 2003 (~$80K increase per year) so now it's listed at $1.695mm (~$140K increase a year).

I heard a the worst real estate show ever on AM 680 (the sports station) this weekend. The Realtor tm got mad at the host for even suggesting that home values may go down.

One thing I never hear people talk about is how the higher dollar amount in the Bay Area are going to get more people to sell when values start dropping this time.

Back in S. Cal in the early 90's values dropped about 50% on average but only by a few thousand per year. When SF and Marin homes start dropping by $100K + per year we are going to see people running for the doors...

"7. For every 100 females age 18 and over, there were 89.7 males."

Sheesh, somebody should have gone to Vassar/Sarah Lawrence for undergrad :)

Ok last year we said next year prices will come down (Mid 06) now we say by next year. How long can we keep pushing the dates? What was not there in 05 to call that prediction wrong and today’s prediction right?

Lets discuss.

Must resist troll-bait, must resist....

Ok, I'll suspend my disbelief for one moment and assume "TimeSaver" is not an alter-ego of MP/Jukubot/Benjammin/etc. Since the thread for our dead-pool for mid-2006 prices (FuckedCounty.com) from last August was mine, I will try to collate people's predictions and present them with DataQuick's YoY numbers when the end-of-June 2006 numbers become available (per the rules).

Dataquick should release them either in late July or early August, so we have approx. 2 more months to go.

Here were my own predictions:

HARM Says:

NCAL
(-)0-9% San Francisco
(-)10-19% Santa Clara
(-)10-19% Sacramento
(-)0-9% San Mateo
(-)0-9% Alameda

As you all can see, actual prices to date are cratering right on track with my original predictions! :-). I see *no problem* whatsoever with me taking the top prize. :roll:

Whether people sell due to the higher prices in the BA or not, it would be nice to see people for once just staying put. Alameda is supposed to be one of those towns where everyone knows each other, people stay in the same homes for decades, and you say hello to the same people at the diner in the morning. In the last 2 years you'd swear the town has a swinging door.
The whole RE boom is a community destroyer. I can easily see the BA becoming more like the giant subdivisions where the neighbors never say hello to each other because nobody is going to stay in one place long enough to get to know one another. sort of sad.

FAB,

Good point. BA plain vanilla homes are going for prices that would fetch an entire lifestyle elsewhere. There ought to be at least some people who would just take the profit and run elsewhere. They've already won the realty lottery, so they might just want to cash out and live large elsewhere.

FAB,

Seriously? The radio guest got all bent out of shape, huh. What was it? The old "it's different this time?" Or, "as long as employment stays strong and rates remain low". Perhaps these "intagilbles" we keep hearing about?

David Lerah had a beauty today. "2006 is going down as the year we get the speculators out of the market" or words to that effect. So I'm wondering to myself who are all these vile speculators? Some big corporate types with evil plans hiding behind an offshore LLC? No David, we are. We are the specuvestors! Your neighbor, your co-workers and even your relatives! By playing it off as some mythological or hypothetical third party it creates some distance from the problem? So what does this mean David? We may get blown out of the water on our 2nd, 3rd or vacation home but our primary residence will stand fast. Even appreciate enough to gets a little HELOC action? Uh, doubt it.