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Some Indicators


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2006 Jul 25, 2:46pm   17,107 views  197 comments

by Randy H   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

ITB
XHB

Homebuilders not looking so good. An early indication of a sharp decline to come? A "hard landing" perhaps?

Chart #1 is ITB: iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction
Chart #2 is XHB: SPDR Homebuilders

IYR
ICF

Broader real-estate indices have yet to turn so negative, though.

Chart #3 is IYR: iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund
Chart #4 is ICF: iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Majors Index Fund

** Important note, charts #1 & #2 have significantly less data and are relatively new ETFs, so the early part of the charts may reflect a lack of liquidity more than true underlying value.

If you're not familiar with ETFs, which is what these graphics are charting, they are simply industry-focused "mutual funds" which trade like stocks on the market. They provide a nice way to get a quick read on the health and direction of an industry or sector.

  • Click charts to see the large versions. You may have to "zoom" in your browser depending upon your screen size.
  • Traders, quants, experts, chartists, fundamentals-ists and geeks: dispute these metrics and suggest better ones.

--Randy H

#housing

« First        Comments 47 - 86 of 197       Last »     Search these comments

47   Peter P   2006 Jul 26, 4:12am  

Have to second DinOR here –if you can’t trust your own retirement accounts (401k/IRAs), what can you trust?

I trust something that can be readily cashed out.

48   HARM   2006 Jul 26, 4:13am  

The 401k is not even matched, but at least it’s before tax, I thought you could only have a regular IRA if you don’t have a 401K?

Nope, I have both. As I don't yet have children or a CA personal ATM (house) and I don't itemize, these are about the only tax shelters I have at the moment.

49   Claire   2006 Jul 26, 4:14am  

You can cash a ROTH IRA out, just not the gains or you'll get taxed on them.

50   HARM   2006 Jul 26, 4:16am  

I trust something that can be readily cashed out.

Point taken, though technically you can (for a big hefty penalty, of course :-( ). IRAs/401k/403b rules also allow one-time penalty-free withdrawals for certain events --like buying a first home, paying for kid's college tuition, and such.

51   Claire   2006 Jul 26, 4:16am  

HARM -

So you have a tax-deductible IRA not ROTH?

52   StuckInBA   2006 Jul 26, 4:19am  

AFAIK, if you contributed to a 401K plan, your contributions to a regular IRA (if they are allowed based on income etc) are NOT pre-tax. In that case, it makes sense to contribute to a Roth IRA, again if income levels allow it.

* NOT A TAX ADIVCE

53   Peter P   2006 Jul 26, 4:21am  

IRAs/401k/403b rules also allow one-time penalty-free withdrawals for certain events –like buying a first home, paying for kid’s college tuition, and such.

Withdrawal or loan?

54   HARM   2006 Jul 26, 4:21am  

So you have a tax-deductible IRA not ROTH?

Yes, though I would like to convert it to a Roth at the next opportunity (2007 I believe?).

55   Claire   2006 Jul 26, 4:23am  

I thought it was 2010? For conversion of IRA's that is.

56   DinOR   2006 Jul 26, 4:23am  

Peter P,

Some of the "charitable trust remainders" are set up so that you can,

Make the contribution

Get an immediate tax break

Keep the income (dividends)

Will it to an heir (also rec. the income)

And upon their passing the $'s finally go to the charity

Pretty good deal.

57   Peter P   2006 Jul 26, 4:27am  

Pretty good deal.

Yes indeed. Do your clients have any donor-advised fund (e.g. Fidelity Charitable Gift Fund)?

58   DinOR   2006 Jul 26, 4:31am  

HARM,

I'm kind of in your position except that one of us is self employed. Through my SEP I can "fairly" well adjust my tax position by making a final contribution just prior to the cut off.

Just as Peter questions the "value" of retirement accts. I seriously challenge the sagely wisdom of "fluffing up" your sched. A through the use of Mort. int. ded! If in the process of "fluffing" you are ignoring virtually all of your other savings options "it just doesn't make sense". (Particularly since many fluffers NEED that big fat tax return check to get caught up on bills)!

59   HARM   2006 Jul 26, 4:31am  

Withdrawal or loan?

Withdrawal. Though it looks like I was mistaken about first homes & college tuition being exempt from the 10% early withdrawal fee. These would be considered "hardship withdrawals" and are subject to tax + 10% beffore age 59 1/2.

Getting a penalty-free withdrawal is a bit more restrictive:

--You become totally disabled.
--You are in debt for medical expenses that exceed 7.5 percent of your adjusted gross income.
--You are required by court order to give the money to your divorced spouse, a child, or a dependent.
--You are separated from service (through permanent layoff, termination, quitting or taking early retirement) in the year you turn 55, or later.
--You are separated from service and you have set up a payment schedule to withdraw money in substantially equal amounts over the course of your life expectancy.

http://www.401khelpcenter.com/mpower/feature_121902.html

60   DinOR   2006 Jul 26, 4:34am  

Peter P,

Just as a matter of convenience I typically use Eaton Vance in Boston. They're pretty comfortable with the process and have an in house stable of tax experts that keep things current. It really helps people that have a low cost basis in a stock and can even help folks that have sold off RE holdings. I hate to say it but it really is a "last ditch effort" when all other "relief" has been exhausted.

*Not a plug for EV

61   Peter P   2006 Jul 26, 4:36am  

Thanks, DinOR.

62   HARM   2006 Jul 26, 4:36am  

I thought it was 2010? For conversion of IRA’s that is.

Yes, got the year wrong --sorry:
http://www.toolkit.cch.com/columns/taxes/06-231roth.asp

63   HARM   2006 Jul 26, 4:40am  

I seriously challenge the sagely wisdom of “fluffing up” your sched. A through the use of Mort. int. ded! If in the process of “fluffing” you are ignoring virtually all of your other savings options “it just doesn’t make sense”.

Yes. Plus, your home represents an incredibly UN-diversified and illiquid tax shelter/savings vehicle.

64   astrid   2006 Jul 26, 4:44am  

HARM,

Unless you plan to retire near the poverty level, always load up on your Roth IRA first.

DinOR,

Huh? You just won't let me go on that, will you? I was just advocating a flat tax system with fewer loopholes. Since that's just not gonna happen, I don't think my advocacy would really cut into the amount of business you may wish to conduct.

65   astrid   2006 Jul 26, 4:45am  

Well, this Jeff guy could just file for financial death, AKA bankruptcy...unless he lied getting those loans.

66   DinOR   2006 Jul 26, 4:49am  

astrid,

I was ONLY kidding! Btw, you're right, take full advantage of your roth. I'd really love to see the IRS consolidate the two so people don't have the redundant fees (and account statements).

67   StuckInBA   2006 Jul 26, 4:54am  

DinOR,

I have heard similar dislike for COVERED CALLS from my friends who trade in options. I think I am alone in this. I write covered calls, ALL the time. Sometimes in IRA accounts, if possible.

I have many long positions. I write call options on it. I consider it as "extra dividend".

I am mot suggesting buying stocks to write call options. But if you already have a stock or ETF, then writing call options is as close to "easy money" as it can get.

Theoritically there is a chance of getting called and missing the upside. In a raging bull market that is very likely. But in current market, like for last 5 years, I have been called less than 5% of the time. And in all cases, I could get back in the position cheaper than the strike price.

Each contract writing yields in very small amounts. But if done on many long positions over and over again, the returns are nothing to sneeze at. Esp. in IRA. And it's so freaking easy ! I am not trying to optimize anything. I just write long very out of the money calls. The nickels and dimes add up over years.

Sometimes, it is a life saver. Without the calls I wrote on DELL over last 5 years, I would have been in red, deep red. But I managed to get out early this year, with a small combined profit due to all the calls that I wrote and simply expired.

68   DinOR   2006 Jul 26, 5:04am  

To BA or Not to BA,

I have absolutely no problem w/that strategy at all. It's what "old money" does when the market turns flat as a means to generate extra income. But you must admit, it's done as often as not as defensive measure and you have to have a pretty big position for it have an impact.

69   Peter P   2006 Jul 26, 5:06am  

I have heard similar dislike for COVERED CALLS from my friends who trade in options. I think I am alone in this. I write covered calls, ALL the time. Sometimes in IRA accounts, if possible.

I prefer writing uncovered OTM puts, especially if a possible slight downside is foreseeable.

Each contract writing yields in very small amounts. But if done on many long positions over and over again, the returns are nothing to sneeze at.

Make sure you do not pay more than $1 per contract in commission.

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

70   StuckInBA   2006 Jul 26, 5:08am  

Scott,

The VIPERS are great. But the case between ETF and its underlying fund is clear. For automatic investment plans, the fund is better, because ETF trading fees will be a drag on the performance for most people. For trading, ETFs win hand down, as there is no "early redemption fee".

71   Peter P   2006 Jul 26, 5:08am  

oh one more thing about buying puts or calls from an IRA — if you reach maturity and they are in the money (I think that’s the right term), and you don’t have the cash to exercise the option, then you’re kinda screwed (since you cannot use margin to borrow the money). I think I read in Fidelity’s paperwork that if that happens they will sell the option a day or two before the maturity.

There are just too many ways to get screwed trading options.

72   DinOR   2006 Jul 26, 5:09am  

MA,

The "San Diego Creative Investors Club" (or whatever they call themselves) has to be the largest compilation of mis-information ever assembled! The interaction looks like the blind leading the blind. It must be some seminar guru's invention so his/her newbies can "get real time support"! Ever notice how closely the flirt with the law? These guys are scary.

73   StuckInBA   2006 Jul 26, 5:13am  

Scott,

I agree with you regard to puts vs shorts. I said in the beginning of the thread that I shorted TOL. I meant figuratively. I bought puts.

I have never shorted stocks yet. Don't think I ever will. Buying puts is less risky to me.

74   DinOR   2006 Jul 26, 5:20am  

MA,

I'm sure these guys go through several lenders at the same time (or as closely as possible) so it doesn't show up on their credit report. For all we know they are going through 11 different brokers or even working the loans on-line?

75   Peter P   2006 Jul 26, 5:21am  

I have never shorted stocks yet. Don’t think I ever will. Buying puts is less risky to me.

But puts require more considerations because they are very sensitive to implied volatility. Do you buy deep ITM puts? How about bear spreads?

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

76   DinOR   2006 Jul 26, 5:42am  

MA (and for those that might be curious)

The gal on the SDCIA that is frequently mentioned is Suzanne Goulet and her web-site is www.terrasantainvestments.com for those considering buying "pre-construction" specials in Asheville, NC or perhaps El Paso "the new Phoenix". Units should be completed in 2007/2008!

Pfffft

77   Peter P   2006 Jul 26, 5:43am  

RE: the new Phoenix

In the new Phoenix, 500K is the new 200K. :)

78   DinOR   2006 Jul 26, 5:45am  

Yeah, multiplied by 11! LOL!

79   DinOR   2006 Jul 26, 5:54am  

This brings me to my next bubble beef (as we are now at a point where this would perhaps be better rec'd).

Many posters here are now at a stage in life where they SHOULD be building real wealth. Not monopoly money bubble bucks, but real wealth. With lasting equity. I would love to be in a place where I could soberly consider buying my own office building. Perhaps sub-leasing a few spaces. Making meaningful impovements and building genuine equity.

Many posters here SHOULD be at a point where more and more of their income is from their investments (not as much by sweat of brow).

But Nooooooo! We aren't happy as a country (nor as individuals) unless we're going from one bubble to the next! Equity has become such a fleeting thing I can't see how anyone can not at least attempt to "time the market". When it's all said and done it's our sense of timing that seems to be the only thing that DOES matter. Welcome to the new Amerika!

80   Randy H   2006 Jul 26, 5:57am  

Scott,

why don’t you have a self employed 401k? Much better than a SEP-IRA…. unless you have employees?

I had employees in my C-Corp, so the SEP was more effective. Since most of the employees were "top-heavy" on the salary scale, we were able to get much more out of the SEP rules than 401k limits. For my new LLC I'm not sure which way I'll go yet.

Peter P,

How do you recapture the present value of pre-withholding contributions in a taxable account?

Conor,

I certainly believe that ETFs (the index based ones) should and likely will remain very tightly correlated to their underlyings. That said, I let others test out the new products first...at least with my retirement money. After all, there are still a few remaining taxation and legal issues around ETFs. Again, probably nothing will come of them, but I can eliminate that risk by waiting and still do fine with a Vanguard market index MF.

81   Peter P   2006 Jul 26, 6:04am  

How do you recapture the present value of pre-withholding contributions in a taxable account?

It is not possible.

82   Peter P   2006 Jul 26, 6:07am  

There is no "rational" reasons not to have retirement accounts.

83   astrid   2006 Jul 26, 6:10am  

DinOR,

Cool! No need to worry about my crazy tax policy ideas. I'm not a sufficient overachiever to ever become the first North American overlord.

84   StuckInBA   2006 Jul 26, 6:14am  

Peter P,

I consider myself a newbie when it comes to options - even though I have been writing calls for a long time. I started buying options very recently.

I like in the money put options. the only time I bought far out of the money puts, was my first put purchase. All other puts were very much in the money. The bear market that started in May has been kind till now - too kind. In fact everytime I covered (sold my put positions) I left a lot of the money on the table. No regrets. A small green is better than any red.

I have not tried any of the "advanced" option strategy yet. I am still a student. I am learning.

85   astrid   2006 Jul 26, 6:16am  

Peter P,

Of course there are rational reasons! You could be a BASE jumping fanatic. You could have a disease that will kill you by the time you're 30. You could be living on $10/pay. You could be a heroin addict. Just becase very few people have similar motivating reasons not to save doesn't mean they're irrational.

The current system does not incentive saving. Forget instant gratification aspect. Most people don't have the nerves and the money managing ability to deal with a retirement fund. It's not just shortsighted spendthrifts, it's that there's a serious barrier to entering the retirement savings area at all. The clearer heads and the comparatively well off may be persuaded by the tax advantages and the fear of a rainy day, but for most people, a retirement fund is a confusing burden.

86   DinOR   2006 Jul 26, 6:23am  

astrid,

I didn't say your ideas on taxation were crazy. What concerns me is that for many generations Americans have been able to take wealth accumulation for granted. Now it seems like we're heading down a path where how comfortably you retire will depend on wether you cashed in your chips on Monday (or the Friday before)! No assumption should or could be made by looking at you net worth today, factoring in a reasonable rate of appreciation and drawing the conclusion that you will have "X" (or very near to it) upon leaving the workforce. I've studied Randy H's "Monte Carlo" simulations and have run more than just a couple of "hypos" and I'm not even sure their calculations are sufficient to deal with today's brand of volatility?

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