patrick.net

skibum,

Agreed. Additionally there may be some sort of "quiet period" like with an IPO? You know where no one is supposed to issue target prices and the like? How long will it be though before Cohen and Steers or Neuberger Berman start incorporating CME's in their research reports? Then RS can really kick back and let the street figure it out.

Peter P,

Yeah, I can't say for sure. Because he actually fathered the thing and is a published author on the topic his may be a very unique agreement. It may be as simple as RS not wanting to scare off what few bulls remain?

Some time back someone posted a link for the "mortgage specialist" for the hispanic community? It was totally hilarious! Almost as good as "Fantasyland Mortgage"! Can anyone find that? You know, it was that really primative cartoon with the guy that had this really gravelly voice saying stuff like; "Call TODAY for your free cancel-tation"

It will be so much fun to watch the media spin and lies as the months go by. CNBC, FOX NEWS, BLOOMBERG,and the rest. Can you ever remember a housing bubble that involved so many sectors with vested interest? And do you think for one moment that the goverment does not realise the damages to come? I think the Fed will be pressured to attempt to stop this runaway train at all cost (our dollar). Tell me this isn't different than last time?

This will just add one more aspect to the coming election. History repeats itself. Everytime the GOP finishes with this country there is alot of shit to clean up. Things won't change until the middle class really stand up and let the electorate know by our vote. We have the power we just don't exercise it. Accountability we need to demand it at the polls.

They kept talking…strong fundamentals…(Levy, economist for banc of America) and Schiller kept nodding his head.

I do not believe in fundamentals. This is why I may never pass the CFA exams.

LiLLL, I would not worry too much about the fundamentals talk. Many economicsts do not really accept the possibility that prices can change fundamentals.

It looks like a complex non-linear system. But it is actually very simple. It is nothing but a simple cycle of greed and fear that humanity can never escape.

But Peter, aren't you a "market fundamentalist" ;-)

@DinOR,

That would be homestarrunner's 'Strong Bad' character posing as "Senor Cardgage Mortgage": http://www.homestarrunner.com/senormortgage.html

"Market time" or "days on the market" will be removed from the MLS. Actually, I didn't need to consult my crystal ball - this policy is being implemented right now according to two agents I recently spoke with.

It's interesting that when things go bad the information starts to become harder to come by - witness the discontinuation of M3 at the FRB.

@Bap33 & Sylvie,

The problem is, the working and middle ¢lasses are currently no match for those lawyer$, lobbiest$, or $pecial intere$ts. We're so poor, we can't even afford a "$" symbol --we're stuck using the lowly "¢". :-(

But Peter, aren’t you a “market fundamentalist”

I do not know anymore.

Until and unless there are unlimited resources, there will be discontent.

We’re so poor, we can’t even afford a “$” symbol –we’re stuck using the lowly “¢”.

€uropeans must be more powerful now.

But we're not too popular with the €uropeans right now. Perhaps we can borrow a few "£'s" from the British.

Perhaps we can borrow a few “£’s” from the British.

£O£ :lol:

Peter P Says:

£O£

So you've got a "Yen" for “£’s”???

So you’ve got a “Yen” for “£’s”???

Â¥es?

Peter P Says:

Â¥es?

Cool - how do you do the Yen symbol (not that it will ever be practically useful for me)?

Florida condos for everyone!

http://tinyurl.com/pl92q

Cool - how do you do the Yen symbol (not that it will ever be practically useful for me)?

Just copy and paste from the internet. You can just google "yen symbol".

DinOR said:
Firstly, these “No mortgage payments for a year!” schemes are drawing all the wrong kinds of attention. As are the “bag money” cash back at closing schemes. And they are “schemes” folks! Basically it’s being viewed as mortgage fraud. As it should. The overall amount borrowed and still inflated prices are leaving lenders more vulnerable than ever.

hmm, poor old banks, always losing money...

Sylvie said:
If unaffordable housing wasn’t bad enough.. I had to pay taxes for people working largely in a underground economy created in large by small business and the greed culture. I think it is all slave labor but, even so, they are willing to keep coming because it’s better than where they come from. We basically created our own monster. And they keep coming…

That's possibly the best exposition so far...

newsfreak said:
The medical system is swamped with debt from illegals.

not to pick on any one post, because this is one of the more innocuous ones, but can anyone provide figures as to the total cost of health care for citizens in the state, the amounts the HMOS and insurers are making, and the healthcare welfare amounts being paid for services to 'illegals'? I will only believe the system is being destroyed by illegals when I see the relative amounts. Given that all essential healthcare in other countries is paid for 100% from tax dollars...

I think there needs to be tougher measures against identity theft. Capital punishment should be extended to these economically damaging crimes. Seriously.

absolutely. and also reinstate debtors prison. i also think people like kenny lay and probably george bush should receive the death penalty, one for greed, the other for starting illegal wars -- or both for greed, i suppose. i think we should reinstate 18th century ideas of protecting personal property at all costs, including floggings, hangings, and transporting criminals to, um, antarctic bases to look for oil, even if there's no chance of finding any... bring back the tyburn gallows, take your kids along to watch, and give them a good thrashing afterwards to cement the lesson. even nobles could be made to do 'the tyburn jig'... or catholics, especially... and i will kill anyone else i don't like, just watch me and have a care...

another in a current series by the Herald:

Home owners find equity a spent force

now the pollies are starting to get worried it seems -- must have been all those letters i wrote to them...

"THE stagnant property market has taken a toll on a favourite Australian pastime: converting bricks and mortar into cash.

The boom in equity withdrawn from housing and used to boost superannuation, bolster share portfolios and buy cars, overseas holidays and plasma televisions has petered out, a report by the Reserve Bank says. The Reserve Bank study showed the bulk of housing equity withdrawal was undertaken by older households.

Labor's housing spokesman, Kim Carr, said hard-working families were being forced to abandon their dream of owning a home.

"Stretched beyond the limit by three interest rate rises, they are being forced to sell," he said. "Plummeting property prices mean that hard-working families are confronting the financial catastrophe of negative equity." Such a prospect may not be confined to Sydney's outer suburbs, Tom Western, a valuer and NSW president of the Australian Property Institute, said yesterday. "Anecdotal evidence suggests the market is slowing down in areas closer to the city, and not just in investment units," Mr Western said."

I wonder what's a goin happen when they run out fear tactics? I love the latest one, "rents are going thru the roof". Mine hasn't, and isn't going to.

Many economicsts do not really accept the possibility that prices can change fundamentals.

It looks like a complex non-linear system. But it is actually very simple. It is nothing but a simple cycle of greed and fear that humanity can never escape.

Not to step in it, but I don't really think prices changing fundamentals or vice versa is really that relevant. They are both part of the same system, so they both affect one another (like a complex, non-linear system? at least a complex Bayesian system).

At minimum I do not think it is simple. To wave it away with "simple cycle of greed and fear" ignores the fact that this entire system is integrally related with those psychological behaviors.

As to the "fundamentals" everyone was talking about today on the financial channels today, I wouldn't really sweat it too much. I read it as more of a "Technicals camp v Fundamentals camp" vis a vis the economy's affect on the stock market. Technicalists have turned very bearish while Fundamental-ists have edged a bit more bullish. From a wider economic perspective, there are some very solid fundamental variables, not the least of which is the consecutive declines in inflation indicators.

However, I also noticed that pretty much everyone agrees that housing is going to likely be the pivotal factor. Even there, credible analysts and economists still disagree about how housing will unwind (but everyone credible agrees it will unwind). I'd say I detected about 60% hard landing 40% soft landing sentiment the past couple of days. I'd say that's about right, with things seeming to be trending slightly towards hard landing. For me the big wildcard there is how soon it happens. If a hard landing starts before the election cycle (or 2 years later), then I'd expect politicians falling all over themselves to soften the landing. Bail outs, tax relief, etc. etc.

There is a lot of fear-mongering on talk radio

Talk Radio, now that's something that is pure pablum.

ajh,

My primary objection is that there is a significant difference between mean and median when considering home price movements. This is because the distribution of houses is skewed by so much it distorts even the percentage changes in any overall descriptive statistic, and leaves absolute changes pretty much useless.

Also, you can't set a hard number for your nominal definition without knowing what future inflation will be. A 10% nominal drop means very different things if inflation is 2% or 12%. In fact, if inflation is high enough and the nominal drops is small enough number I can make a mathematical case that owning a home with a fixed-rate simple-interest mortgage is advantageous even if it loses value; so long as it doesn't lose more value than you gain in by deflating your real loan payments.

Stumbled upon this on the freakomics website:

Letter to Senator Sarbanes: I'd Like to Change My Status From Citizen to Illegal Immigrant:

Tuesday, July 11, 2006

The Honorable Paul S. Sarbanes
309 Hart Senate Office Building
Washington DC, 20510

Dear Senator Sarbanes,

As a native Marylander and excellent customer of the Internal Revenue Service, I am writing to ask for your assistance. I have contacted the Immigration and Naturalization Service in an effort to determine the process for becoming an illegal alien and they referred me to you.

My reasons for wishing to change my status from U.S. Citizen to illegal alien stem from the bill which was recently passed by the Senate and for which you voted. If my understanding of this bill's provisions is accurate, as an illegal alien who has been in the United States for five years, what I need to do to become a citizen is to pay a $2,000 fine and income taxes for three of the last five years. I know a good deal when I see one and I am anxious to get the process started before everyone figures it out. Simply put, those of us who have been here legally have had to pay taxes every year so I'm excited about the prospect of avoiding two years of taxes in return for paying a $2,000 fine. Is there any way that I can apply to be illegal retroactively? This would yield an excellent result for me and my family because we paid heavy taxes in 2004 and 2005.

Another benefit in gaining illegal status would be that my daughter would receive preferential treatment relative to her law school applications.

If you would provide me with an outline of the process to become illegal (retroactively if possible) and copies of the necessary forms, I would be most appreciative. Thank you for your assistance.

Your Loyal Constituent,

Pete McGlaughlin

Spike66,

Thanks for your reply. New York City is a great place and the housing markets are high beta, so the cycle affords stronger profit opportunity.

I gave serious thought to buying in Battery Park City during the early 1990s when I was working at the World Trade Center. Prices were very low in NYC compared to now, and you could buy rentals and have strong positive cash flow with practically nothing down. I was really tempted as I expected prices to skyrocket eventually - but I have never been comfortable with the ownership politics in NYC so I bought in other places. However, I would have made more money if I bought in NYC.

The WTC was a great place before those murderous fanatical monsters attacked us. They bombed us in 1983, (lucky for me I was a few blocks away when it went off) and they kept hitting us in various places around the world for the next 8 years. Finally they hit really hard on Sept. 11, 2001. That was so terrible – so many dead. I was not working there at the time.

should read "1993"

The WTC was a great place before those murderous fanatical monsters attacked us.

The crystal ball says that those cowards will be hunted down very soon.

On his numbers people from rich countries could combine procedures with a holiday cheaper than the straight procedure at home.

A lot of Australians are doing this, particularly to Thailand. Australian doctors are complaining that they have to fix up the mistakes that the overseas doctors make on the public purse... hence the Thai administrator stressing that the hospitals are of 'western standard' -- perhaps high standards of sterility, but you have to trust in the procedures also. South Africa was offering a 'safari and surgery' package where you could get something done and then spend a token few days on safari snapping animals to tell your friends that's where you'd been... even brazil has cheap surgery and other healthcare, especially for citizens...

Muggy,

Vacant homes have a tendency to spontaneously ignite in FL do they?

Hmm?

austingal,

I'd prefer not to get mixed up in family issues but adult children simply do not have ANY credibility with their parents. They remember the time we broke a window with a baseball (and gloss over our expertise in finance). There's likely little that can be done for her now except to find someone she DOES respect (more likely someone here age) and have them tell her to bite the bullet, cut off a finger to save the hand, "harvest" the tax loss and live to fight another day. If not, sounds like they've put all they had into RE and could wind up being your burden down the road. At this point it's the lesser of two evils. IMHO.

*NIA

Let’s face it. Old people are richer than younger people. (Why wouldn’t they be? They’ve had longer to accumulate wealth.)

Old people will be wealthier when you’re old, too.

Let's see if this is true.

I checked the Tarot cards and I was seeking advice on an Option ARM, the Death card kept turning up…..I wonder what that means?

IIRC the Death card simply means a new beginning. Perhaps a "new life" when it resets?

I shook the 8-Ball this morning asking if housing prices were going to fall more than 15% over the next three years and stagnate for another 2 and sigh……it said “Ask again later”.

I asked it whether house prices will crash in the Bay Area. It said NO. But crash is relative to the querent. So I guess prices will fall less than what I have expected.

She owns two properties with interest only mortgages.

Sweet baby jeebus how I love this statement. Pretty much sums up the Amerikan mentality (no offense to you austingal!).

"own" in same sentence with "interest only"

Love it, rally I do.

I checked the Tarot cards and I was seeking advice on an Option ARM, the Death card kept turning up…..I wonder what that means?

As Peter P points out, the Death card isn't neceesssarily bad - it just means change, either good or bad.

Now, if you'd turned up the Tower...that would be the time to run away, bravely run away....

Well, lots of boomers started out like you are starting out. In fact, I’d bet that on average, boomers were more squished at your age than you and your peers are. There are fewer and fewer babies per family and houses are bigger than ever.

MA,

Though I value your regular contributions to the blog, I must respectfully disagree on this. See austingal's response above. Like her, I (38) and my wife are also jealous bitter apartment dwellers, mainly by necessity.

What's different for us vs. Boomertopia?

1. Crushing student loan burdens. Unlike most of your fortunate Boomers (esp. early Boomers) & Silent Gens, we had to finance most of our higher education via Sallie Mae. This left a massive debt overhang for me just in time for... the job recession of 91-95.

2. Job recession of 91-95. I say "job recession" because, while well fed economists will tell you "the recession" officially only lasted from 91-92, anyone out there looking for a job can tell you otherwise. I didn't break out above 30K/yr. gross until 1997, when the tech boom really took off.

3. (Do I really need to say this?) Completely unaffordable housing. When I was born, my parents could easily buy a median priced house in a decent neighborhood anywhere in L.A. County on a very modest public servant's salary. Median prices were around 3-4X median HH incomes, roughly in line with the rest of the country at that time. Nowadays, it's closer to 10-12X and even rents --a bargain by comparison-- will still run you 40-50% of your net income.

4. Medical insurance costs. Also much higher vs. incomes than 30-40 years ago, plus many more working people are uninsured than then.

5. Wage/benefits/tax squeeze thanks to unrestrained illegal immigration, which has the added "benefit" of driving up housing costs long-term as well. Even if there were no Fed/GSE-engineered credit bubble, housing costs would STILL be far higher than 30-40 years ago.

6. NIMBY/SMUG/Prop. 13 constraining new supply and creating powerful disincentives for retired empty-nesters to move & free up housing stock near jobs for families.

Btw, that "bigger houses" stat you mentioned is likely the result of a skewed average, resulting from higher-end homes owned by the moderately rich to super-rich, as well as multiple-families living in one house. In my neighborhood, a lot of families double or even triple-up to make the monthly nut. Bifurcated economy, bifurcated housing situation.

Bay Bear,

Interesting observations. Your theory sounds plausible but you probably haven't sampled enough properties to get a statistically significant set.

Also:

I expect prices to fall, not sure how much though because much of the inventory in my area might actually just turn to rentals, and rents might climb to meet home values in the middle somewhere.

This does'nt make sense unless you are suggesting other factors (inflation, increased jobs, etc.) exerting price pressures on rents in CC County. If more units are turned to rentals, supply/demand would cause rents to decrease, wouldn't they? And as far as I know, the East Bay and North Bay have the poorest jobs situation within the BA.

Also, the few times I've visited out that way, it seemed like continuous development sprawl out to Brentwood and beyond. That certainly has some effect on your local market.

MA,

Loved the "Breathtaking? Yes. Quick sale, not a chance"!

This was a glaring example of flippers gone mad but even the less prolific Vegas "listings" were revealing. They just don't get it! What I've found frustrating is that these people have zero skin in the game (nothing down) and wouldn't live in LV on a bet. They're completely underwater and are wasting everyone's time! Why are we even having to deal with these punks? I'll bet the lenders would love to have them all the way out of the picture as well. Flippers have gone from being experts in properties to being experts on default, carefully calculating their dwindling options on the inevitable path to foreclosure.

Why are we tolerating this? These aren't someone's home. These aren't some poor family's only residence. Why should foreclosure regs. apply here? These are "margin" positions that have no chance in hell of being covered. I say blow 'em out!

Now, if you’d turned up the Tower…that would be the time to run away, bravely run away….

I agree... think house of cards. ;)