patrick.net

LILLL:
OMG - I have the Mary Ellen place saved in my homes on Zip, before you even mentioned it!
I liked the look of it because its small and has a big lot, so ignored the stupid asking price and kept it to see what happens...

Wow, so she's had it for a grand total of 10 weeks - sold 8/1/06 for 1 million, according to Zillow - and wants 200K over what she paid for it?

This one will be entertaining to watch. I wonder what it'll eventually go for...

Here's a very sobering statistic for you Patrick.net people which I gleaned from my stack of copies of the Contra Costa Association of Realtors trade paper "The Update":

In January of 2005, there were approxiamately 211 active detached listings for the following cities in Contra Costa County:

Alamo, Blackhawk, Clayton, Concord/Clyde, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez/Pacheco, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, Rossmoor, San Ramon, Walnut Creek

As or today for those same cities (according to ziprealty) there are 1988
active detached listings.

As or today for those same cities (according to ziprealty) there are 1988 active detached listings.

Wow.

I am moving all food discussions to astrid's blog, greencrabs.blogspot.com.

I may start a separate rights-to-food blog as well.

Hopefully, I will be more on topic here. :)

Can someone help locate the new TV program on one of the cable channels.....HGTV or something like that. I caught the very end of the program and didn't see which channel....DUH on me. I think I spaced it out because I was so interested in the format. It was a derivative of flipping where the sellers are dealing with a buyer's market and going through the stress of lowering their prices, whining about "losing money", horrified by the realtor's comments they had to actually make repairs, and so on. It is a timely topic and I'd like to follow the series. Any help would be appreciated.

On to other topics:
Dinor, our "DNA doc" loans are the paradox of today's lending. People who CAN and WILL repay are held to a higher level than anyone else....go figure. As lending practices come under more and more scrutiny, it's another opportunity for those in the know to use it to their advantage. I will guarantee lenders will soon offer special discounts to "plum" borrowers.....FACT. They have to prop up their portfolio for the auditors so they'll showcase those to give the impression they are good faith lenders and following guidelines.

Another thing that gripes my butt....it seems a lot of stuff does these days.....are all the "fees" lenders charge. They sit there and roll them off one after another as if the Gov requires it and borrowers pay and pay and pay when they don't have to. My favority is the Origination Fee. WTF is that for? I've yet had a banker actually justify it so I have them scratch it off and move on to the next one. You don't, and should not, pay for almost any "fee". I have yet to pay a loan fee of any kind and I am not special, smart, or good looking.

For the months ahead, my old adage is going to come in very handy:
"In confusion, there is profit". I know it sounds like Ferengi's Rules of Aquisition but it's true. You can make more money when the SHTF than any other time........

HARM

You do the topic justice. You know what, we have yet to discover one single consistent free market fundamentalist in the past couple years. But I have to say that so that I can claim to be one of the handful of genuine capitalists left. I'm so warped I still think that people dislike Ayn only because they learnt it was fashionable to do so as some right of passage -- usually about 3 weeks into Philosophy 101.

Doug H

You can make more money when the SHTF than any other time……..

I couldn't agree more. I have inevitably made pretty much all of my money during recessions and corrections.

Isn’t the Chinese ideogram for crisis the same as opportunity?

"When written in Chinese, the word "crisis" is composed of two characters. One represents danger, and the other represents opportunity."

John F. Kennedy

Doug H,

Good observation on "showcasing loans" for the auditor! I've never been through that type of an audit but I know for a fact when my internal auditors go through my client files every year I reach for the spiffiest one I can find (randomly of course!)

FEES: There was a time when you asked about various fees/charges and you'd get the same old hum-drum excuses like they're standard customary and reasonable and you'd say something like "can I get a copy, I just wanted one for my attorney?" and they'd say sure. Then you'd go back into the fees and one by one they would all of a sudden either disappear or become negotiable. Of course with the "white hot real estate market" the focus was more on doing things quickly than correctly.

HARM Says:

> @SFWoman, Though it’s no beauty queen,
> I wouldn’t call that the Ugliest house in
> America or even NoCal

Some real dumps at:

http://marinpos.blogspot.com/

Keep in mind you’re quoting someone who also thought he was a jelly donut.

Yes, and I think I am a cannibalistic lobster. :)

I’m so warped I still think that people dislike Ayn only because they learnt it was fashionable to do so as some right of passage — usually about 3 weeks into Philosophy 101.

Actually, it was around page 700 of Atlas Shrugged after reading The Fountainhead the month before.

In Ayn's sexy fantasy land, people don't need safety nets. Nobody in Rand's world got hit with Cancer after losing their health insurance.

@Doug H
Or...it may be 'Property Ladder'...a good 'ohmygod what were you THINKING!?!?' kind of show.

Particularly liked the one with the young newleyweds, who thought that not having an inspection prior to buying a 'fixer upper' was no big deal...

@HidingintheBronx.....you aren't from the UK, are you???
Makes me laugh that the most popular UK show ever only takes 40 years to cross the Big Pond. I love it though.
But I'm still trying to get my head around David Tannant - Christopher Eccleston was brilliant.

I'll have to get on board w/Dr. Who but my all time favorite was "The Avengers" w/Patrick McNee and Diana Rigg (hubba hubba). They were so campy and kind of kinky in weird sort of way?

Hiding,

Come on! You don't even watch the new Battlestar Galactica?

FAB,

MarinPOS was pretty damn funny! Evidently only in the BA can something that's 800 sq. ft. be considered "perfect for entertaining".

How about, "perfect for hermit w/no friends and no desire ever to have friends"? Seriously. I thought to myself, entertaining who? Carnival performers? WTF.

The show I watched had a couple selling their house to move up....isn't that always the case and it documented their work with their realtor and the selling process......low offers and SINCERE disgust they had to actually get up off their ass and do something. After all, they are ENTITLED.....
Thanks for the clues; I just got cable down here and there are a kazillion channels of crap so there's a bunch of programs I've never heard of. I'll let everyone know when I locate the series. This one was pretty true to the current market situation.

Back to my friend DinOR. I got a flyer in the mail all the way down here about an upcoming property auction in the Portland area....WTF?

Here's the website: http://rmnw-auctions.com/

Any idea what this is all about?

@Randy H,

Thank you, sir. I am truly honored to receive praise from the Great Master of econometrics himself. :blush:

@FAB,

Thanks for the MariPOS link --nice to have something to 'fill the void' left by the late, great "America’s Overvalued Real Estate".

I think this works better: :oops:

I'm a bit bummed that Mark Warner is not running in 2008. I wish Hilary Clinton made that announcement instead.

Awful Truth,

LOL! Great news. Maybe I can rope my boyfriend in for some property blogging now. (Once his precious Tigers play out their season).

astrid,

You get behind those Tigers and I do mean now! I don't want to jinx 'em but this could be a victory dance worthy of youtube! Or Gootube or.... whatever...... Anyone seen the Fox commercials w/Tommy Lasorda coaxing "also ran" fans down from trees and out from under the cupboards in the fetal position! They show one Cubs fan in a tree in the front yard, eyes aglaze sucking his thumb! Too funny. Me? I'm joining Tommy by the TV!

Allah,

It's ok. You buy when *you* think the absolute, undeniable, incontestable bottom occurs. Other people may have to balance the almighty dollar with living their lives just a tad bit more than you.

You think I'm a realtor in disguise? I'm not anonymous. You can read all about me. What do I know about you again?

There will be people buying as the prices drop and they will be buying for fear that someone else will buy it if they don’t, but what they don’t understand is that with inventorys as high as they are and as high as they will be going there will be other similar or better houses that will be available for increasingly better prices.

What you don't understand is that this exact outcome is not 100% guaranteed, and some people may derive better value from buying at a different point than others, including you. You are not everyone; you are just you.

By the way, prices are very sticky, by definition, right now; at least in this area. They have been for some months now. That you choose to ignore it does not change that fact.

you are just you

Excellent quote, Randy. May I use it on my new non-proliferation blog if I decide to start one? :)

Is it anecdote time again? I was speaking to a persian friend a week ago and she was telling me about her cousin who somehow managed to gather up around seven houses. (And had no idea how he could afford them, of course.)

I was speaking to a persian friend a week ago and she was telling me about her cousin who somehow managed to gather up around seven houses.

Seven only? What a petit flipper. :)

Sure Peter P, I just want a small cut of your massive Google Ads revenues. 85% should do. ;)

Sure Peter P, I just want a small cut of your massive Google Ads revenues. 85% should do.

If it is truly massive I would not care. ;)

Perhaps south marin is really prime. It has one of the very few Michelin starred sushi restaurants (perhaps the only one?) in the Bay Area.

How is Sushi Ran by BTW?

Just had a realtor at the door wanting to know if I wanted to sell my house - told him it's a rental (now I'm hoping he's not going to contact the owners - I don't want them deciding to sell at the minute) - wanted to know if I'd like to buy a house.

I've noted at least 2 realtors cold calling in this neighborhood in the last 3 weeks - what kind of sign is that? Is my area highly sought after or are the realtors desperate for business?

You think I’m a realtor in disguise? I’m not anonymous.

Randy is a realtor? :lol:

How is Sushi Ran by BTW?

Delightful. Hard to get in, though, and it carries a high premium.

I am a bit more a fan of Robata Grill.

I am a bit more a fan of Robata Grill.

I love robata. Do you want to comment in Astrid's blog?

Claire Says:

> Just had a realtor at the door wanting to know
> if I wanted to sell my house - told him it’s a
> rental (now I’m hoping he’s not going to contact
> the owners - I don’t want them deciding to sell
> at the minute).

As a renter you always want to tell Realtors at the door that the owner is a relative who NEVER plans to sell (nothing is worse than renting a place that is for sale)...

@HidingintheBronx: ...ahh, Scotland, my all-time favourite country :-)
Wierdly enough, every time I've been to Scotland the weather has been wonderful.

Except for the time I had to wait in Glasgow one winter's day, for the train to Ardrossan (for the ferry to Arran) when it was a staggering -12C (about 10 degrees f) during the day. Other than that...blissful.
Wherabouts does your brother live?

@LILLL: LOL!
I'm working on the 'quantity over quality' model atm when saving stuff on Zip. I reckon of the 100+ places I'm tracking (some on spreadsheet now), a few will still be availalble when i want to start looking to buy in Q32007. I'd like to document what happens to them all during the long dark tea-time of the soul over winter 2006 and beyond. I'm not actually thinking of buying it, especially at 1.2 mill. 450K, maybe.....
I chose it because its within commuting distance for the husband, and we actually like small - there's only the two of us, plus cats, so don't need much over 1500 sq ft. Plus, a 10K lot is a nice size for L.A.

I'll be sure to monitor the goings-on there now!
Especially if she's snotty :-)

sure Peter P. Post the URL. All I find is Astrid's mish mash.

Claire,

We get plenty of soliciting newly minted "realtors" here in Tam Valley McMansionville hell.

I always tell them "no, I'm not looking to sell. I really built this home to leave to my kids".

sure Peter P. Post the URL. All I find is Astrid’s mish mash.

greencrabs.blogspot.com

astrid Says:

LOL! Great news. Maybe I can rope my boyfriend in for some property blogging now. (Once his precious Tigers play out their season).

I have some more here. The numbers across the board are very bad, but I'm just mentioning the worst of the worst. It makes for great drama!

So... let's see...

In January of 2005, there were approximately 46 active ATTACHED listings (condos/townhomes, usually) for the following cities in Contra Costa County:

Alamo, Blackhawk, Clayton, Concord/Clyde, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez/Pacheco, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, Rossmoor, San Ramon, Walnut Creek

As or today for those same cities (according to ziprealty) there are 930
active ATTACHED listings.

That's 1922% increase in inventory for that period (about 19 months).

In August 05, it was 300. In August of 06, 940. So YOY about 210% increase in inventory.

For anyone who cares, the YOY increase for Detached (from the other post) is about 147%. There were around 804 Detached properties in those cities on the market in August of 05, vs 1902 in Aug of '06.

Pending Detached 8/05 vs 8/06: -44% Attached: -50%
Sales Detached 8/05 vs 8/06: -25% Attached: -25%

So consider two things in regards to the above:

1) Inventory has jumped 147% and 210% YOY but sales are down 25% for both. Oops.

2) Look at Pendings. -44% and -50%. These will likely CLOSE in September. So I wonder what those september numbers look like. Probably pretty painful.

YOY Sales were below 2005 levels from April onward. However, inventories have been AT LEAST 100% over 2005 levels for the same month.

August 06 PRICE is down 3% YOY, not adjusting for inflation.

In response to the Sticky Prices arguments in this thread, first, a definition:

Sticky prices
Petrol-pump PRICES do not change every time the oil price changes, and holiday prices and standard hotel rates are fixed for months. Sticky prices are slow to change in response to changes in SUPPLY or DEMAND. As a result there is, at least temporarily, DISEQUILIBRIUM in the market. The causes of stickiness include MENU COSTS, inadequate information, consumers’ dislike of frequent price changes and long-term contracts with fixed prices. Prices change only when the cost of leaving them unchanged exceeds the expense of adjusting them. In FINANCIAL MARKETS, prices move all the time because the cost of quoting the wrong price can be huge. In other industries, the penalty may be much less severe. Small disequilibria in, say, the pricing of hotel rooms will not make much difference. So hotel prices are often sticky.

Second, I have only to look through my stack of CCAR Update newsletters to see evidence that RE is very sticky. Inventory (supply) has been going UP UP UP constantly since Jan of 05. Usually in the double-digits. But price was ALSO going up during much of that period even when adjusting for inflation. Price has only very recently started to level off according to these stats, at least 18 months after inventory levels began to rise dramatically.

That's the exact definition of sticky.