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Did we waste an opportunity of a lifetime ?


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2007 Feb 5, 3:40pm   17,337 views  178 comments

by StuckInBA   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

too late - the S.S. FatStacks has left the pier

For years the interest rates have been super low. Many argue that we really didn't need them to be so for so long. But that's what they were. Effectively, the cost of money was super low. That sounds like a good thing. At least it should have been a good thing in my naive viewpoint.

But what do we have to show for this ? We as American society, what is that we have done over last few years that we can look back and be proud about. There is little disagreement about how we blew it on a political and fiscal level. But from a non-government angle, just as a capitalistic society, how do we fare ?

As individuals, we seemed to have completely botched the golden chance given to us. Many homeowners could have refinanced their debt to a super low fixed rate for next 30 years, reduced their monthly cash out flow and increased their equity - all in one shot. But rather they chose to gamble with even lower payments to risk higher payments just a few years down the road. They took cash out of their equity - not to invest or start a productive business - but to consume and now don't have much to show for it.

But what did the businesses do ? Did they use this opportunity wisely ? Have they invested the money that might bear fruits down the road. Some of the reports indicate that many companies in the SP500 index have much stronger balance sheets than what they had a few years ago. What role in it was played by cheap money ? Or was it more due to outsourcing and simply a general recovery after a recession 5-6 years ago ?

Or was this even an opportunity ? I think it was. But then do we have anything to show for it ? There has to be something good that came out of this. Or we collectively just simply blew it all away ? On all fronts ?

StuckInBA

« First        Comments 139 - 178 of 178        Search these comments

139   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 7:37am  

Hmm, for some reason I thought it was a Spanish dish

140   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:37am  

Making risotto with squid ink is a traditional Venetian dish, or so my cookbook claims.

IIRC Cascal on Castro in Mtn View has a paella dish with black ink noodle.

141   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 7:37am  

I like fried calamari, as long as it's fresh and made with a very light batter.

142   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:39am  

I like fried calamari, as long as it’s fresh and made with a very light batter.

Same.

I also like calamari or octopus stewed in a spicy tomato sauce.

143   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:40am  

Actually, tempura batter (light batter with ice + water) is pretty good too.

144   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 7:42am  

Tempura is good, but I think it would result in too much batter to calamari for my liking.

145   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:44am  

Tempura is good, but I think it would result in too much batter to calamari for my liking.

True.

What is the best dipping sauce for calamari? I like mayo.

146   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:46am  

My wife loves calamari salad with lime juice and red onion (Thai style).

147   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 7:46am  

I have no idea about "best," I prefer malt vinegar or basalmic vinegar on most things.

148   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:48am  

Malt vinegar! I love Fish and chips too.

149   Bruce   2007 Feb 7, 7:49am  

Peter P's pasta precedent is a classic Venetian dish, spaghetti al nero di seppia... spaghetti in cuttlefish ink.

The Corte Sconta, a restaurant in the Castello district of Venice had the 'original' on the menu last winter. It was terrific.

150   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 7:50am  

Worchester sauce can be very good, especially the Chinese variant.

151   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:51am  

Worchester sauce can be very good, especially the Chinese variant.

I use that on Chicken a la King.

152   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:55am  

Wow - I once some cooked beets, forgot about it and gave myself quite a scare the next morning. I wonder if squid ink also has the same effect on your um… post-digestive output.

YES it does. Somtimes it will come out BLUE.

Forgot what I just said.

153   requiem   2007 Feb 7, 8:00am  

SP, this being the Internet and all, I wouldn't be surprised if someone out there has put together a multi-colored ...um... fountain show, kinda like that one in Barcelona

/ducks and runs

154   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 8:01am  

Did we just open the pandora's box?

155   EBGuy   2007 Feb 7, 8:03am  

Dinor,
You are starting to sound like The Mortgage Professor. Admittedly, half the battle is a psychological game -- paying down the mortgage is an "enforced" savings that can be hard to beat without some discipline.... Oh, and I can only hope for MID phaseouts in the future.
Uh-oh, this is starting to sound like a Monty Hall problem: behind door number 1, the SD; door number 2, max 401(k) contribution; and door number 3, MID. Hmmmm, or is this more of a horse/cart issue. My wagon is hitched to MID so now I have to decide if I fully fund the 401(k) (actually SIMPLE IRA). Of course I take the company match off the top, but after that... perhaps some crumbs for a 529. I mean, I can avoid retirement, but not the education expenses :-)

StuckInBA said:
My investment track record is quite decent
Nice call on oil a couple of weeks ago. Are you a weatherman? :-)
I'm long Chevron, Conoco, and CHK (for natural gas exposure).
Seriously, though, dollar cost averaging indexes over a 30 year period does involve some risk, but I'm willing to bet that you can beat your return from paying down the mortgage. Plus, homes have that ... uhhh... illiquid aspect.

156   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 8:27am  

EBGuy :

I went long on XLE. Somehow USO makes me uncomfortable. It's plain luck though. Oil is such a complicated commodity. Politics plays a bigger role. I don't think even the Saudis like $75 a barrel.

Seriously, though, dollar cost averaging indexes over a 30 year period does involve some risk, but I’m willing to bet that you can beat your return from paying down the mortgage.

Maybe. I should take a look at the bubblizer and see if it can help answer that question. Sounds similar to what it is trying to do.

Plus, homes have that … uhhh… illiquid aspect.
How much liquidity does one need anyway ? Keep some and have a HELOC ready for more severe emergencies.

157   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 8:36am  

Peter P :

I am not sure what white sauce will do to that. Even if it is lighter and grayish, hmmm I don't know ... Maybe it was a bad photo.

158   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 8:44am  

Stretch :

You are in an enviable position. So tell me again, given what you have said about your assets, why do you care about the 50K being liquid ;-) ?

Anyway, your guess is as good as mine about interest rates. I don't think the Fed will increase rates. The CPI can be arranged to be kept around 2 forever. You think they will increase the rates in 08 - an election year ?

159   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 8:46am  

After age 50 or so, I am banking on working at reduce pay but hopefully still gets medical (if that doesn’t work, I would have to leave the country).

CB, 50 is the new 30. :)

160   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 8:52am  

Very very relevant to the current discussion.
http://tinyurl.com/yudfcy

161   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 8:57am  

Very very relevant to the current discussion.

Oh, it is not about ink pasta any more.

162   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 8:58am  

Is this a usual practice or the bank is getting desperate?

Don't know about HELOC. But offers for 0% credit card used to land in my mailbox at the rate of 2 per day. Now that's a great way to play the rate arbitrage. Citicard once offered me to have up to 10K transferred into my checking account as cash advance at 0% for one year. I chickened out as I did not have time to read the fine print. But later I found out that it would have been very safe, as long as I make monthly minimum AND remember to pay it back before the rate resets.

163   Paul189   2007 Feb 7, 9:00am  

Billion is the new million!

164   e   2007 Feb 7, 9:05am  

Citicard once offered me to have up to 10K transferred into my checking account as cash advance at 0% for one year.

Usually there's some cash advance fee... though I've seen it capped at $75.

165   e   2007 Feb 7, 9:41am  

I told my wife that in the olden days, guys will buy a convertible at age 40, but then she said in the old days, couples reaching 40 usually have kids that are teenagers, not the small children that we have :(

When I was graduating college, a number of my high school's friends' fathers died of heart attacks and etc. Some of them were 62/63/64.

There are some drawbacks to becoming a jd/mba/phd first before having children sometimes.

166   SFWoman   2007 Feb 7, 10:06am  

I have the beet color issue, but I have never had the squid or cuttlefish colored issue.

I had a cuttlefish risotto at a restaurant called 'La Colombina' in Cannaregio, in Venice a couple of summers ago. The restaurant was fantastic (which isn't easy to find in Venice). You chose either 'meat' or 'seafood', and then a seven or so course meal came out. They were very, very accommodating for my children (made simple pasta dishes for the small picky one). I will absolutely go back there the next time I am in Venice.

As to colored fountain shows, I haven't seen one of those, but in about 1990, when I lived in Portland, there were two rather unusual protest groups.

One would drink something and then vomit sequentially in red, white and blue. They would protest politicians.

The second group was very funny. Whenever one of the homo-obsessed religious groups would come into town to protest that gays exist this group would get signs saying "Leviticus 19:19 neither shall a garment mingled of linen and woolen come upon thee." or Deuteronomy 22:11 22:11 Thou shalt not wear a garment of divers sorts, as of woolen and linen together." Then they would picket Nordstrom for selling mixed fibre clothing.

167   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 10:13am  

One would drink something and then vomit sequentially in red, white and blue. They would protest politicians.

Isn't this a great country or what ?

168   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 10:16am  

Venice does not smell very nice though. :(

169   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 10:18am  

It has now started in earnest. HSBC and NEW both give BIG bad news.

http://tinyurl.com/29g6sb

I have a savings account with HSBC Online. It's FDIC insured ... but now has me worried a little bit.

170   SFWoman   2007 Feb 7, 10:21am  

Peter P.,

There are better smelling cities, you are right.

Bruce,

If you have any other restaurant suggestions for Venice please, let me know. I love that city, but find it difficult to find really good restaurants.

171   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 10:30am  

Is food in Italy still as cheap as 10 years ago?

172   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 10:31am  

RE: best smelling city

I vote Victoria, BC.

173   HARM   2007 Feb 7, 10:37am  

new thread:
"Don't Panic!"

174   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 10:39am  

Bill Fleckenstein (MSN Investor) warned about the coming problems in home loans at least 2 (maybe 3) years ago. That's where I learned about secondary MBS, stated income loans and assorted information.

Couple of years ago he mentioned NEW as a compelling short idea. It has been going downhill since then. Although I did not trade NEW, I made some money on TOL on its way down. He was the first one to give information that saved me from buying a home. So I owe him a lot.

If CFC/TOL etc go up tomorrow, I think I will admit to PPT's existence.

175   SFWoman   2007 Feb 7, 10:45am  

Peter P.,

In dollars, nothing is as cheap in Italy as 10 years ago.

176   surfer-x   2007 Feb 7, 1:45pm  

Oh sweet baby jeebus (not afliated with sweet and sour baby jeebus) the exchange above between Sir Sushi's-alot and Astrid reminds me of a scene in Tampopo.

177   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 2:49pm  

Oh sweet baby jeebus (not afliated with sweet and sour baby jeebus) the exchange above between Sir Sushi’s-alot and Astrid reminds me of a scene in Tampopo.

Huh?

178   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 7:01am  

Sir X,

Food is an important quality of life issue.

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