patrick.net

C'mon everyone, tell this realtor on his blog why buying is not a good idea. He wants to know why people choose to rent instead.

oops! Try this link.

My two cents about the Fed: I think they did an amazing job of keeping the US out of a serious and deep recession in 2001, by lowering the interest rates. I was personally expecting a much deeper, longer and harder recession.

The last time we had an asset bubble of the same proportion pop, it precipitated the Great Depression.

The Fed was not the only one that acted wisely, the federal government did a good job in not acting protectionist, allowing global expansion to help pick the US off the floor.

Granted, it just shifted the bubble to a real estate expansion, but so far we have been able to manage that reasonably well as a nation. I know it has hurt many of the regular posters here, so that is probably not a very popular position to take, but if you step back and look at it from a national perspective, a bit of home price inflation is a small price to pay to avoid the suffering that comes from a recession. Some people believe that recessions are needed, to wring excess capacity from the economy, but I personally believe that is very Second Wave thinking. What excess capacity do we have in a knowledge economy? Too many accountants? No one keeps any inventory to speak of anymore. Too many houses? That problem will take care of itself. And yes, there will be something very much like a recession for the homebuilders, but there is no reason that they have to take everyone else down with them. I guess we have replaced economy-wide recessions with rolling sector "recessions" which is a good thing, imho.

Recently, Bernanke has done better than expected. Most incoming Fed chiefs immediately engineer recessions. I don't know why they all do it, but they all seem to. Bernanke has so far pulled off the difficult to do "soft-landing." The jury is still out.

The Fed has obviously fallen down on their oversight responsibility though. Too many of those sub-prime loans simply should not have been made. I did not even realize that The Fed was expected to manage things like that. How would they do it? Ask Congress to write laws? I don't think The Fed has direct regulatory authority.

"It’s different this time. All the old people in Sunnyvale will be fleeing just like in Cupertino."

Already! did starting back in 1988 due to recession. No one wanted to live here.

Oh i agree about white flight... but wait a minute... you give out dumb exams and asian pass it with flying colors... what does that tell you...
Yes they are smart for passing dumb exams to begin with.

Back in my day it was all Chicano and Whites and few Philippinoes
hardly any from China/Japan.. very rare if all...
We did have lots of Vietnamese back in 1977-80.. (smart kids that aced lots of exams) too but very few here.
The local school system does not deserve any credit for the test scores we see today. That would not have happend if the many from HK prior to 1997 did not settle here. Smart kids yes! but its a dumbdown school district no.

A Asian classmate from my University got 4.0 (Accounting Degree) but could not speak clear english at all. Could not get a job except for the IRS. Like I said he aced every exam!

My two cents about the Fed: I think they did an amazing job of keeping the US out of a serious and deep recession in 2001, by lowering the interest rates. I was personally expecting a much deeper, longer and harder recession.

No, all they did was delay the recession and because of the delay, it is going to be worse than it would have been, much worse.

The recession is just beginning. How could you possibly believe that a recession will just be confined to just a few sectors? Everyone is going to cut back on spending which is going to swallow up many jobs, which will cause more defaults, which will cause prices to fall more... repeat infinitum.

The fact that a great many are already overstretched from buying overinflated houses or drawing out huge amounts of equity that is no longer there is going to probably lead to a depression.

A Asian classmate from my University got 4.0 (Accounting Degree) but could not speak clear english at all. Could not get a job except for the IRS. Like I said he aced every exam!

I will think twice before hiring anyone with a 4.0/4.0 GPA. (3.96 is probably acceptable though) Test-takers are worthless in the real world. I am under the impression that the smartest kids usually have GPA from 1.7 to 3.5.

"Whites aren't quitting the schools because the schools are failing academically. Quite the contrary: Many white parents say they're leaving because the schools are too academically driven and too narrowly invested in subjects such as math and science at the expense of liberal arts and extracurriculars like sports and other personal interests."

Yes these kids are going to do well. They would have done well anyway anywhere because their culture and family puts lots of pressure on education and not sports or partying. I dont expect to see Raj or Ming on Pot possession anytime soon, like so many of my classmates from Sunnyvale High back in the day.

Good luck to these kids.... They will do very well!

allah,

Yes, I know this is the gloom and doom, the sky is falling blog. It has been for years, but so far the American economy has been steaming along just fine. People here have gone so far as to advocate stocking up on gold, food and ammo, just because the stock market had a minor hiccup.

My bet is that we will muddle through somehow. Some smart kid somewhere will discover something new that will cause an unexpected productivity boom. America will grumble, but learn to live with $5/gallon gasoline. Peace (or at least the absence of American soldiers) will break out in Iraq, saving the US economy $100s of billions a year. Internationalization will continue to improve the overall standard of living of people all over the world, perhaps at the cost of the American working class, which is already greatly weakened, but there are going to be plenty of new jobs taking care of the elderly boomers once they start retiring.

Don't bet against the creativity and ability to adapt of America and Americans. It always ends up being a bad bet.

Yes these kids are going to do well.

That depends on what you mean by doing well. Working a 6-digit engineering job is not doing well in my book.

Personal development is much more important than skills. You can hire skills but you cannot hire ideas and insights.

Don’t bet against the creativity and ability to adapt of America and Americans.

I agree.

allah,

Don’t bet against the creativity and ability to adapt of America and Americans. It always ends up being a bad bet.

Considering all the outsourcing, I don't see much of a future for "these kids". We are at the very beginning of a big fallout. No one gets out of here alive!

"Working a 6-digit engineering job is not doing well in my book."

So are we saying the a recent grad should get 7or 8 digit salary.
You got to start somewhere... why not 6 digit at first...the bottom and work yourself up.
Between 5-10 years then you get personal development and creative skills. if at all, or move to another profession.

Besides you do a great disservice to the talented vets who already have 10-15 years experience.

"Don’t bet against the creativity and ability to adapt of America and Americans."

Complancy is not what I call adapting. Too many for example are waiting for the next thing in Silicon Valley so they can join and reap the rewards.
If you have the nack you should be the ONE that will is making the next big thing in SV. Those people are very rare for find.

allah Says:

> C’mon everyone, tell this realtor on his blog why
> buying is not a good idea. He wants to know why
> people choose to rent instead.

I actually agree with this guy and I would buy if I lived in Indiana right now since when I clicked through to see the homes in the area I saw a nice 3/2 and a nice 3/3 for ~$130K (that is not much more than the sticker price of my car with all the options)…

That depends on what you mean by doing well. Working a 6-digit engineering job is not doing well in my book.

So what -is- doing well? Aside from 7 digits?

"Considering all the outsourcing, I don’t see much of a future for “these kids”. We are at the very beginning of a big fallout. No one gets out of here alive!"

Outsourcing the result of the workforce being expensive and overspending on part of employers (bad management style). Back in the day AMD overestimated the market as pure gravy 79-85 and spent like drunken sailors. Not to mention they actually had a no lay off policy. Boy were they in fairy land. No doom and gloom there... then it happened. And man did that hurt like a mother******er.

If we had good experienced managment and inexpensive salary professionals, we wouldnt need outsourcing. As long as employee costs are under constantly decaying margins we can all do well. Predictable and stable growth vs bom/bust patterns. This was much talked about by Michael Malone from his 1980's Silicon Valley programs on PBS. He later wrote this in his books.

The main problem with test taking mentality is that those kids think the "truth" is knowable and written down in a textbook somewhere. They lose the ability to step back and see the big picture. Still, probably okay for low level accounting/engineering/betatesting/fry cook...until a grease fire starts.

So are we saying the a recent grad should get 7or 8 digit salary.

No, but something more entrepreneurial would be good, even if it pays very little in the beginning.

Between 5-10 years then you get personal development and creative skills. if at all, or move to another profession.

In 5-10 years you will be have permanent head damage and no creative skills left. A house purchase will ensure that you stay put and take less risks.

If you have the nack you should be the ONE that will is making the next big thing in SV. Those people are very rare for find.

Exactly. Simply doing well in school will not help at all. In fact, it may hurt.

Where are these 6 figure making newly minted engineers again?

Can I just state again that the only newly minted graduates pulling (low) six figures are the top quartile of the graduates of top 20 law schools and top 10 biz schools. And even that's not a guarantee, they go to high pressure sink or swin situation and plenty of them sink.

The main problem with test taking mentality is that those kids think the “truth” is knowable and written down in a textbook somewhere.

Exactly.

The big enlightenment: the truth will set you BACK.

One should seek to create the truth, not to find it.

"Still, probably okay for low level accounting/engineering/betatesting/fry cook…until a grease fire starts."

Actually its the other way around. For accountants ... you learn how should it run and your experience dictates on how to approach and fix it and or implement so it doesnt turn in grease fire.

I actually agree with this guy and I would buy if I lived in Indiana right now since when I clicked through to see the homes in the area I saw a nice 3/2 and a nice 3/3 for ~$130K (that is not much more than the sticker price of my car with all the options)…

That could be true for Indiana, I didn't realize it was an Indiana realtor. The post was very general though, not specifying Indiana. Another thing, how good is the job market and salary there? I know they had some pretty high foreclosure rates there.

Astrid, the point is that most "dream jobs" of Asians are not that lucrative indeed. The number of digits in the salary is irrelevant.

I like lawyers though. ;)

Peter P,

May I ask what you do? I don't mean this in a confrontational way, as in "what makes you so great?". I am an occasional lurker and l always find myself wondering these things about the regular contributors. It wouldn't surprise me if there was an old thread along these lines, but I haven't seen it.

One more thing about test taking mentality are the "cheating is okay" or that you can find a silver bullet and win every time. It truly devalues humanity, ingenuity, ethical conduct and hard work.

May I ask what you do?

I am an engineer.

No I think after 5-10 years you get to collaberate.network and get great ideas working with others. You world does open up.

You get brain damage if you work in a bad enviroment. I been there too. Spotting the bad vs is good work place is very important. Knowing the difference is 1/3 of the cure.

The 23 yr old out of school and into hot IPO is nonsense. Its takes years of soul seaching... I worked for old guys who seen it all.

The problem today is greed... i want to be a millionair before 30....

Randy H Says:

> I’ve got other friends who are a dinc couple in the
> hinterlands of the East Bay in a McMegaMansion
> which is well under their purchase price now (they
> bought in late 05). They have probably 30-40% equity,
> and can make payments so long as both work.
> They want to move because now they’re both
> commuting well over 1.5 hours each way. They won’t
> even consider selling until they “get back to even”.

I’m just curious, do you know if their near term plan was for the wife to become a soccer mom when they bought in the East Bay?

Even if I was married to a beautiful smart woman and we both worked at Bishop Ranch it would suck to be childless and living in San Ramon (or even worse Pleasanton)…

It would be pure hell to sit on BART for an hour and a half every night looking forward to a dinner at the new Olive Garden before heading home to see the Prego floors in our “Great Room”…

John F,

It's okay, Peter P is an enigma wrapped in an astrological mystery. I still don't understand him.

Peter P,

I think truly intelligent and broad minded people are fun to hang around, regardless of their occupation. It's true that many of them end up as lawyers.

I admire Asians hard work and dedication
to groups. They are a great addition to our economy.

No I think after 5-10 years you get to collaberate.network and get great ideas working with others. You world does open up.

I agree. But I met most of my friends on the golf course, directly or indirectly, although I am a 36 handicapper. ;)

Yes, so am I. So is the CEO of my company.
Are you self employed/founder/etc? I imagine not "rank and file" like myself...

I think truly intelligent and broad minded people are fun to hang around, regardless of their occupation. It’s true that many of them end up as lawyers.

One of my best friends is a lawyer who hates lawyers. :)

Are you self employed/founder/etc?

No. But I am a self-hater. :(

Bottom Line ...
You got to have education and then relevant experience...
Creativity will either come to you (your the chosen one) or it wont (another smoe).

Pleasanton is not *that* bad, though Tri-Valley area is too hot for life long SF dwellers.

If the Future Mrs. FAB is a stay at home (or working severely reduced schedule) wife, she should learn to cook.

"I agree. But I met most of my friends on the golf course, directly or indirectly, although I am a 36 handicapper."

LOL! Want to make it big.. hang out with the Star Trek engineer crowed at conventions. I mean it!!! The talented engineers just love that stuff and cant put it down... LOL! I mean they go nuts.. on How would you make this gismo work ... they make me laugh and give me a headace..... and look what we have today.

It may be 2007 but I assure you its 1984 Revenge of the Nerds Second Edition...

I don't like sports, except hiking. I'm probably screwed as far as social networking is concerned.

Are there network opportunities in cooking or gardening?

Why can't they love good sci-fi like the Foundation Trilogy? Or even Dune?

Or Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy? Then I'm all set.

No. But I am a self-hater.

I see. I am more of a playa hater myself. I knew I must have been doing something wrong.

astrid - I dont know Im only in the Accounting profession.