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Help me Ben Bernanke, you're my only hope!


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2007 Sep 16, 6:08am   32,952 views  249 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (58)   💰tip   ignore  

Princess Leia

So is helicopter Ben going to come to the rescue on 18th, cutting interest rates, and thereby proving to speculators that they can keep profits but count on ol' Ben to save them from losses? I think the answer, unfortunately, is yes.

Since lower interest rates encourage inflation, does this mean that responsible savers will see the value of their savings eroded to support irresponsible spenders and lenders?

Or could it be that mortgage interest rates will go higher anyway, ignoring the Fed? It seems possible that banks and investors have been spooked enough by the unclear liability for a trillion dollars of bad mortgages that they will still demand higher rates from borrowers, to compensate for the risk of mortgage lending these days.

Patrick

#housing

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155   SP   2007 Sep 18, 5:35am  

DinOR Says:
had you heard about the Russian’s new “suck bomb”? I’m told it’s as potent as a nuke but is completely conventional.

It is a fuel bomb with an force equivalent of 44kt, like the 11kt MOAB but bigger. The US announced we have 'a bigger bomb' (not kidding, that is what the US military said) that goes to 14kt.

The 'are you effing kidding me' spin on this was that these are "environmentally friendly bombs" because they have no radiation, no chemical- and no bio-contamination. They just vaporize every living thing in the 300-400 meter blast radius and cause deafness for 4 miles. [sarcasm]But other than that, they are just great for the environment. [/sarcasm]

SP

156   sylvie9   2007 Sep 18, 5:35am  

Just goes to show how the influential money elite own this country. They can manipulate to the highest levels of monetary decision makers. It's unfortunate that we live in such a society. But at the end of the day the common working citizen has no power or protection. What they've realized is that without the consumer holding up this fake consumption economy we'll be in a recession within six months. It's not a fix it's prolonging a far worse scenario down the road.

Morally it's a big F" You to other than the wealthiest investor who've lost millions in this credit contraction. I'm disgusted with the working of this countries financial and political power brokers. The message : Save the wealthy banks, hedge funds, and Country Wide's . The whole system is so corrupt.

157   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Sep 18, 5:36am  

Well... Looks like Bernanke is saying "Recession is in the bag" right now.

158   lunarpark   2007 Sep 18, 5:41am  

Ugh, what do I do with my savings??? I'm so depressed...

159   tannenbaum   2007 Sep 18, 5:44am  

"Ugh, what do I do with my savings???"

Nothing...I think a lot of people are overreacting to this cut...it's not like the funds rate was reduced to 2003 levels (1%)...it's simply back where it was in early 2006.

160   lunarpark   2007 Sep 18, 5:46am  

Good point. But I'm still depressed...

161   e   2007 Sep 18, 5:46am  

It's a good question though - what should one do if he or she has a big stack of cash from selling of 85% of his/her positions over the weekend?

Ibonds?

162   skibum   2007 Sep 18, 5:48am  

Gold futures at $735/oz.
Oil at %81.50/barrel.
Fed Funds Rate dropped 50bp to 4.75%.
Looking forward to a decade or more of inflation: PRICELESS.

Well, it's official. Bernanke is a spineless fucker. He can comfort himself with the realization that he will be remembered as the Fed chairman who will likely have brought about perhaps the worst bout of inflation this country has ever seen.

163   DinOR   2007 Sep 18, 5:54am  

Bork,

When I was... in the service I was *not an ordinance specialist. I was an avionics guy. I agree, I think the value of such a weapon is questionable at best. Your enemy would need to have an AIR FORCE! for it to be worthwhile. Just imagine dropping that thing on an airfield as fuel, weapons, liquid oxygen/nitrogen "get in the mix". Now THAT would be pyro's wet dream!

"Don't you worry none young captain, we'll have this place cleaned up for you in a jiffy"

164   DinOR   2007 Sep 18, 5:58am  

sfbubblebuyer,

Was that a play on Gary "15% is in the bag" Watts?

165   Allah   2007 Sep 18, 6:11am  

“my mom will be there with a beer in each hand.”

Only the beer will be much more expensive!

166   Bruce   2007 Sep 18, 6:12am  

We GAVE you your much awaited rate cut, and it didn't help. Will you please crawl back under your rock.

DinOR, that idea occurred to me. Then I dismissed it as rationalizing. Then you posted, and I feel a bit better. Am I grasping at straws?

167   StuckInBA   2007 Sep 18, 6:19am  

To those who are depressed/saddened/angered by the rate cut.

This was as expected. Look up the history of fed funds futures. It's predictive precision is impressive. The downplaying of inflation fears was signaled in the last Fed meeting. The discount window was cut recently. Barry Ritholtz puts it very eloquently - The Fed has become Wall Street's b1tch.

There was enough time - almost a year to adjust to the eventual rate cut. Buying commodity stocks, international stocks and foreign currency bonds or even SP500 index fund was always an option.

There was never a doubt that the policymakers don't give a sh1t about savers. I wish it could be different. But it ain't. And it won't be. So protect yourself. They are at least clear about their intentions. Heed to those warnings.

168   DinOR   2007 Sep 18, 6:24am  

Bruce,

I don't happen to think so. NAHB survey shows a 22 year low in builder sentiment, the delinquent payments (and subsequent defaults) are just starting, there's more unsold inventory than you can shake a stick at and lenders are STILL going under.

I don't think a half a point is going to fix all that, and the Fed knows it. This is appeasement at best. BB is still straddling the issue (believe it or not) and we'll reach a point where saving our currency becomes the #1 priority. Then it'll be; "I'd do something for you REIC guys if I could, really I would but I dropped a half point and it didn't help. Right now I've got other fires to put out".

169   lunarpark   2007 Sep 18, 6:27am  

"This was as expected." Indeed.

I'm only talking about my down payment savings, not my entire portfolio.

170   ColoradoBear   2007 Sep 18, 6:27am  

eburbed,

Get thee to inflation hedges. Being in manufacturing I can say that from the perspective of main street, currency valuations respond quicker than demand for commodities. i.e. A purchasing manager needs to experience a heart attack over the price of aluminum required to fulfill current orders before corporate really starts thinking about the problem. And so it goes on down the line with a 2 to 8 week latency at each step.

Also, move that cash into something other than dollars. That is, unless you want to play the short game here in town. Wall street liked the look of todays fresh band-aid from Dr. Ben but that doesn't do anything for the ulcer underneath.

Bernanke: I'll huff and I'll puff and I'll blow your currency down!

171   sa   2007 Sep 18, 6:32am  

Late summer brought no relief from soaring foreclosures. The number of homes in some stage of default jumped 36 percent month-over-month in August, according to a regular monthly survey.
Delinquencies and defaults more than doubled year over year to 243,947, according to August figures released Tuesday by RealtyTrac, a marketer of foreclosed properties. RealtyTrac's forecast is for total foreclosure filings to exceed 2 million this year.

with this kind of stuff going on, it's no surprise what the fed did. that too when ARM's reset is in initial stage. what i didn't like was the drama Ben & Co put up about inflation and suddenly took a 180 turn. should do a lot of good to his reputation.

172   ColoradoBear   2007 Sep 18, 6:34am  

Actually, the rate cut today doesn't me squat in the long term. The long term supply/demand fundamentals have been, and will continue to be f#@ked for a while to come.

173   DinOR   2007 Sep 18, 6:37am  

ColoradoBear,

You bring up some good points. Perhaps it's time we revisit some of the "bunker" strategies we had discussed in the past but were premature. It's not that we were wrong, just early.

174   Peter P   2007 Sep 18, 6:42am  

If men realize that it’s not necessary that they leave offsprings behind, there will be fewer conflicts on this planet. That one must leave his genes behind is part biological and part social conditioning. After all, most people’s lives aren’t that great. To bring children to this world without giving them sufficient privileges and wise guidance is in my opinion utterly pointless.

GC, well said!

175   Peter P   2007 Sep 18, 6:45am  

1 Canadian dollar = 0.972006 U.S. dollars

176   astrid   2007 Sep 18, 6:50am  

Sheesh, just when I was planning a foliage viewing trip to Canada...I'm cursed.

177   Peter P   2007 Sep 18, 6:54am  

Sheesh, just when I was planning a foliage viewing trip to Canada…I’m cursed.

You can praise our fine Fed chairman.

178   salk   2007 Sep 18, 6:57am  

Bernake is this generations FDR.

179   Peter P   2007 Sep 18, 6:58am  

Bernake is this generations FDR.

That would be Hilary Clinton.

180   HeadSet   2007 Sep 18, 7:00am  

"It is a fuel bomb with an force equivalent of 44kt, like the 11kt MOAB but bigger. The US announced we have ‘a bigger bomb’ (not kidding, that is what the US military said) that goes to 14kt."

Sp, are you confusing kiloTONS with kiloPOUNDS?

You are saying that a MOAB that ways less than 10 tons packs the wallop of 14,000 tons of TNT. What explosive is 1,400 times stonger than TNT?

181   astrid   2007 Sep 18, 7:01am  

What's this generation's polio? (Yes, I know that FDR probably did not have polio but...)

182   Claire   2007 Sep 18, 7:06am  

Any insights into the Walnut Creek market?

183   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Sep 18, 7:09am  

Claire,

Overpriced.

Finis!

184   Richmond   2007 Sep 18, 7:15am  

@ Claire,
What Ive noticed in my area is a slightly receding median price with an absolute pounding of the price per sq/ft. In some cases, it can be up to 30 to 35%.

185   Allah   2007 Sep 18, 7:18am  

There was never a doubt that the policymakers don’t give a sh1t about savers. I wish it could be different. But it ain’t. And it won’t be. So protect yourself. They are at least clear about their intentions. Heed to those warnings.

Gold is starting to move!

186   DinOR   2007 Sep 18, 7:35am  

Well whether it's KiloTONS or Kilo POUNDS the nice thing is that they're environmentally friendly (unless of course you happen to be within the immediate "environment".

At first I thought, what a joke, but after looking at the aftermath of Chernobyl (sp?) there may... be applications where this "might" make sense. After the military objective is attained there's no need to leave the area a radioactive mess for years.

187   Carl in Berkeley   2007 Sep 18, 7:35am  

What’s this generation’s polio?

Erectile Dysfunction?

//obvious

188   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Sep 18, 7:53am  

Our polio is Crippling Debt Addiction.

189   ColoradoBear   2007 Sep 18, 8:03am  

Peter P,

In todays news several US based retailers have announced plans for a major expansion in the northernmost US states. Sources indicate that the new stores are likely to be located in norther rural areas where they can take advantage of lower wages and strong "north south" traffic. Industry analysts are also expecting mini boom in the second-hand consumer goods market surrounding these operations. Due to a complex combination of currency valuations and import levies placed on goods purchased by affluent foreigners the second-hand industry is expected to capitalize on a local surplus of unwanted items. These goods will be shipped south to fill the racks of charity stores whose stocks are being quickly depleted.

Also there seems to be new clandestine businesses dubbed "Rent-A-Coats". These operations ship select high value items with justifiably low valuations to private individuals north of the border. These items are then claimed by southbound Canadians and swapped for new or replacement items on the return trip. A spokeswomen for Canadian customs said they are looking into the matter.

190   Paul189   2007 Sep 18, 8:09am  

If the US dollar drops in half from here -

USA real estate is half off to the rest of the world. This is probably what Bernanke has in mind!

191   Peter P   2007 Sep 18, 8:15am  

ColoradoBear, thanks for the story.

Our neighbors up there are probably laughing at us.

But Canadians are nice people, they will not laugh at their friends.

192   Peter P   2007 Sep 18, 8:15am  

USA real estate is half off to the rest of the world. This is probably what Bernanke has in mind!

Are you suggesting that someone is part of an international real estate conspiracy?

193   Peter P   2007 Sep 18, 8:16am  

Will we see CAD-USD parity this year? We are awfully close to that.

194   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Sep 18, 8:22am  

Peter, we'll see it tommorrow!

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