patrick.net

a perfect market resembles socialism.

Huh? O yeah, but debt is wealth.

A perfect market is as far away from social-ism as it is possible.

For those who said the market has already priced in a .5 rate cut, you'll need to upgrade to the new 1080i Crystal Ball.

In the long run, sushi is far more valuable than children. In 2050, there will be 10 billion people on earth and close to zero blue fin tuna.

Perhaps I should start hoarding tuna.

The sensible way is to pass all costs associated with children to the parents. They are still free to have kids. Just don't ask for additional assistance because they have kids.

If BA housing does get a boost in the short term, it just means the knife has grown to a sword. Or maybe a chain saw.

Anybody else catch Glen Beck's TV show today? He had Peter Schiff on from Euro Pacific Capital, who advises the average saver to buy international currencies (self-serving albeit) and hunker down for a good old fashioned depression.

Schiff however had nothing to say about sushi. *sigh*

"who advises the average saver to buy international currencies (self-serving albeit) and hunker down for a good old fashioned depression."

Wouldn't a "depression" make good ol' dollars in a US bank account more valuable? Perhaps savers will get a break after all.

Perhaps savers will get a break after all.

Depending on where is saving accounts are...

It does not pay to be responsible. Haven't you learned the lesson yet?

Next time, please drink the collective kool-aid.

I think that more than Bendover Ben's rate cut, the house approval for mortgage aid (FHA reform) is the more damaging issue. lunarpark posted the link earlier, but here it is again: http://tinyurl.com/28hu4y

It lowers (eliminates?) downpayment requirements and raises conforming loan limits. The arseholes in congress passed it, and most likely the arseholes in the senate will follow.

SP

The arseholes in congress passed it, and most likely the arseholes in the senate will follow.

It is hard to forgive Bush for losing both houses. :(

"It does not pay to be responsible. Haven’t you learned the lesson yet?"

It does feel like we have had a paradigm shift - without a clutch. I hope the term "saver" does not become synonomous with "dope", "clown," or "naive."

eburbed,

I really think holding USD in the form of bonds or cash is the worst decision.

I personally have my holdings in forex bonds, foreign stocks ADRs (only developed countries), gold, oil and commodity stocks. I hold no USD cash except for spending money and exchange every USD penny that I don't need every month. I have held 0 USD bonds in the last 3 years, and I have been very happy with my return so far.

I don't know what the best portfolio should be, but I am quite sure that the worst portfolio will be holding US treasury or US bonds. It is very clear to me that the Fed has chosen to sacrifice the dollar for the sake of economy, it has again chosen inflation over deflation, so even US stocks in select sectors that will benefit from this all will be a good idea.

"Wouldn’t a “depression” make good ol’ dollars in a US bank account more valuable? Perhaps savers will get a break after all."

Indeed. Savers can better survive a depression. It's that recession in the near term that will kill the US dollar. So better to save it as Euros or whatever....Schiff believes we'll see 50% loss on the US dollar. Yikes.

Too bad sushi isn't something one can stockpile.

Not investment (or culinary) advice!

I hope the term “saver” does not become synonomous with “dope”, “clown,” or “naive.”

No... more like "Tinfoil Hat"

"It lowers (eliminates?) downpayment requirements and raises conforming loan limits."

Well, I hope the arseholes left in the provision that a home with an FHA loan on it must be owner occupied - the rule that makes the loan come due the moment the house is rented out.

If you need to ask this question in the context of today’s Fed rate cut, you either need to go back to your econ 101 textbook, or you are trolling.

There are a number of regular posters who do nothing but troll. This is the main reason I don't bother to post or even read here much: the signal to noise ratio has gone way down. I am sure Randy feels the same way.

I expect he will be back, but only rarely and not as a moderator. He said as much.

The depression is the end game, no matter how you inflate it.

However, before depression, we will need to go through phases of massive reflation - printing, futile effort to save the economy. One needs to ride the opportunity of reflation and jump off right before it finally pops back into fiat currency.

Right now we are just entering the fiat-becomes-worthless reflation phase.

It is just so crystal clear that both the congress and Fed are going on a concerted effort on another big round of money printing. Take advantage of it.

It is just so crystal clear that both the congress and Fed are going on a concerted effort on another big round of money printing. Take advantage of it.

Yes. I made some bad trades today based on wishful thinking.

"So better to save it as Euros or whatever….Schiff believes we’ll see 50% loss on the US dollar. Yikes."

If we have a depression in the US, Europe will not be far behind. That may dampen the USD-Euro spread. Either way, savers would win, be the savings in dollars or Euros.

Unfortunately, it appears that the gov is throwing all resources behind the inflation tool. Inflation will be used to keep stocks nominally high, to bail out the record number of debtors, and to bail out the gov's own record debt. This will, of course, create more debt in the process.

"It is just so crystal clear that both the congress and Fed are going on a concerted effort on another big round of money printing. Take advantage of it."

How? By borrowing to buy assets like houses? By using any savings to buy assets like houses? Or you thinking of converting your dollars to foreign currency as fast as you get them?

HeadSet Says:
Sp, are you confusing kiloTONS with kiloPOUNDS? You are saying that a MOAB that ways less than 10 tons packs the wallop of 14,000 tons of TNT. What explosive is 1,400 times stonger than TNT?

Sorry, my mistake. The blast-yield of MOAB is 11 tons, not 11kt. The new Russian bomb's yield is 44 tons, not 44kt. I could not find the reference to the US response claiming we "have a bigger bomb", so I don't know the exact yield of that one.

SP

"Yes. I made some bad trades today based on wishful thinking."

Yep, you too could use some windex on your crystal ball.

Seriously, several people on this blog thought the Fed would act more responsible that to do a .5 rate cut. Now I sense a "should have known" attitude about whose interests the Fed would appease.

Does anyone know where I can get a 1080p crystal ball as my credit line is starting to look more attractive?
Hey, Patrick has startd an new thread on Hedges.

HeadSet,

commodity is usually the best hedge in inflationary times. I think Rogers has a valid point that this commodity bull run will last much longer than people expect.

Not an investment advice.

HeadSet Says:
Seriously, several people on this blog thought the Fed would act more responsible that to do a .5 rate cut.

Me too - I had expected a quarter-point cut, because I still had some hope that Bernanke had not completely sold out to the Wall St. shills.

I had a small amount of money in currency futures, no idea how much they have gained - but it won't be nearly enough to compensate for the drop in the US pesos that I am still stuck with.

Given the slide in the dollar so far, the question is whether it is now too late to completely ditch the dollar and convert everything I have into SFR?
SP

SP,

You had me woried for a sec. If there was a new explosive that was so powerful, it would be awful terrorist weapon. A lunchbox could take out a skyscraper.

I remember the "Daisycutter" that was C-130 delivered. It had a yield of about 20,000 lbs of TNT. We refered to it as "instant airfield"

hmm, lots of cliches from salk about stuff...

Perhaps the English could have used the hyperbaric bomb on Kabul in 1842 as payback to the Afghanis for their massacre of 4,500 British troops and 12,000 wives, dependents and camp followers. It's far easier than razing a town by conventional means.

You'll note that pre-Communist Russia was already expanding into central Europe in 'The Great Game' in the 19th C, which was only about imperial expansion, not oil, and threatened Russophobic Britain's hold on India.

It's now the New Great Game, of course, with far more at stake -- precious Caspian Sea and Iraqi hydrocarbon resources to be divided up between the US, Europe, Russia, China and India and sundry other players...

HeadSet Says:
Seriously, several people on this blog thought the Fed would act more responsible that to do a .5 rate cut.

Yes, I was taken aback too. I expected a gradual 0.25 cut for a few meetings. So although I expected this to happen, I did not expect this to happen so fast. So I lost some money on puts today. I was betting that there will be 0.25 cut and it will cause a minor sell-off.

Oh well. But all my stocks holdings were up and all types of international funds even more up.

USA real estate is half off to the rest of the world. This is probably what Bernanke has in mind!

That's ok....When the housing bubble in the other countries pops; we'll buy up all their property!

DS said:
Perhaps the English could have used the hyperbaric bomb on Kabul in 1842 as payback to the Afghanis for their massacre of 4,500 British troops and 12,000 wives, dependents and camp followers.

If you dig a little beyond the usual Anglo-centric view of events, and learn more about the British plot to kidnap and overthrow Dost Muhamed and install a puppet in Kabul, to say nothing about that prize ass Elphinstone's high-handed bungling, or of Macnaghten and his half-arsed double-dealing with the Ameers, you will realize that the British brought this upon themselves. In fact, a student of history would do well to completely discount most British reports of these events since most of it is a monumental cover-up of what went on.

SP

If you dig a little beyond the usual Anglo-centric view of events, and learn more about the British plot to kidnap and overthrow Dost Muhamed and install a puppet in Kabul...

I was being a little ironic. The massacre was a little severe though -- what's wrong with a little political interference? Nothing much has changed regarding reinventing history, as we're seeing now in the middle east -- decades of attempting to install puppet leaders by the west, etc...

woops, link should be http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacre_of_Elphinstone%27s_army

reference is made to imperial interference in linked articles, e.g. the 1st anglo-afghan war, the 2nd anglo-afghan war, the 1st anglo-iraqi war, the 2nd anglo-iraqi war, etc

SP,

The British are par for the course, maybe a little ahead, in its methods. This is a case of "everybody does it."

Well, soon we may pray for a return to English Colonialism. A time when we had one dictator 3000 miles away as opposed to 3000 dictators one mile away. When the Indians did not aim nuclear weapons at us. When Africa had food and devoid of wholesale massacre. Chinese Communists in check. Middle East oil supply secured and plentiful for the western civilized world. Middle East dictators didnt aim nuclear weapons at the west.

astrid Says:
The British are par for the course, maybe a little ahead, in its methods. This is a case of “everybody does it.”

Really? I don't remember anything about the Inuit sailing halfway around the world to engage in a spot of colonial meddling and plunder. Which is why to this day, I don't believe the Inuit have suffered a massacre at Gandamak.

Bap33 Says:
how is it you can give more credit to one account than the other? Just wandering.

I don't - I just said it helps to get a non-anglo-centric view. The reason the English reports are particularly suspect is that there was a tremendous effort to cover up the incompetence, ignorance and arrogance of the officers and diplomats who led the campaign. Insulting the natives and double-dealing with them is not a great way to win friends and influence people.

Independent reports based on journals of lower-ranking officers and other observers (not afghans, btw) paints a picture that is far less one-sided than the official English story.

SP

salk Says:
Well, soon we may pray for a return to English Colonialism.

Starting with the United States?

A time when we had one dictator 3000 miles away as opposed to 3000 dictators one mile away. When the Indians did not aim nuclear weapons at us.

They do? I would be very interested in a reference, since you seem to have some fantastic sources.

Middle East dictators didnt aim nuclear weapons at the west.

Name one. Back it up with a credible source (i.e. not Pat Buchanan).

SP

Insulting the natives and double-dealing with them is not a great way to win friends and influence people.

I'd have a think about that in the current middle east context also -- re-neo-colonialism... remember arming and training the mujahideen against the Russians?

the salk's main sources appear to be bill o'reilly, anne coulter, rush limbaugh and faux news (faux news provides the informed healthy balance against the others...)

SP,

Okay, all EMPIRES (AKA successful civilizations in some people's books; since many civilizations, including the Inuits, are suffering cultural declines due to the dominating influences of Russian/Nordic/Anglo-Saxon cultures) do it.

If the Inuits had an empire (I know, that's a comment that's nearly as asinine as "if Iraq was anywhere else.."), I don't think they would have done much better. Brutality and stupidity are inherent in any empire. I'm not advocating that for the British Empire here, just for the British culture (I know, that sounds wrong even as I type it out!).

astrid said:
If the Inuits had an empire, I don’t think they would have done much better.

Yeah, if my hypothetical orange was rotten, I am sure it would taste as vile as the real rotten apple that I have here.

SP

Pakistan? North Korea? Iraq? Libya? Iran? Syria? All of which are confirmed are suspected to have nuclear weapons. Which is better for you? Nuclear Pakistan or Colonial India?

salk Says:
Pakistan? North Korea? Iraq? Libya? Iran? Syria? All of which are confirmed are suspected to have nuclear weapons.

Yes, but you said something like "Middle East dictators have nuclear weapons aimed at the west". Posessing nukes is very different from having the ability to deliver them.

Pakistan's nukes are aimed at India. Iraq does not have any. Libya does not either (confirmed by the CIA). Iran and Syria do not have the means to deliver these weapons to any target outside the middle east.

The only countries that have nukes _aimed_ at the "west" are Russia, China and (possibly) North Korea. None of which are in the middle-east.

Which is better for you? Nuclear Pakistan or Colonial India?

Is that a binary choice?

SP